http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=41826&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=e700b1ee98a41a52ef210f2ca0b8db7a#.Ut0G4n8 o7Gh
And now the commentary from me.
If sanctions are essentially leveraged out through this oil 'trade'. What good are they?
The biggest winners besides Iran will probably be every neighboring country via trade gravity model. Ergo it is very likely that trade growth will get a boost in the region if capital flows become more abundant.
Think about Iranian capital investing into Iraq, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and vice-versa yes very little sums or trade of goods but base amounts are very negligible at start always.
I actually think this is a major positive fore regional stability and economic growth. Relative ease of oil supply is also a good thing makes it cheaper for economies to use energy which is still fairly expensive.
As long as they don't go nuke crazy its all good.
If the oil deal with Russia goes ahead, Iran may extend its shrunken oil exports by 50 percent and collect some $1.5 billion in extra revenue a month. This may undermine Western sanctions, which may have forced Iran to consider permanently constraining its nuclear program in the first place; while Russia may become Iran’s main oil buyer (Ú-Ãàçåòà - Ðîññèÿ óìååò ñåáå ïîñòàâèòü).
“The deal with Iran will not be simple barter—it will involve money—and since Russia did not undersign Western anti-Iranian sanctions, we are not obliged to wait for them to be removed.” Russia may sell the Iranian crude in the Asia-Pacific region to “increase its presence and influence in this growing market.” (Ú-Ãàçåòà - Ðîññèÿ óìååò ñåáå ïîñòàâèòü).
Today, Russia may again take Iranian crude, rename it “Russian” and sell it as its own. Tehran will receive part of the proceeds in cash and part in Russian goods. This could effectively breach the US-led trade and financial blockade and make Tehran less inclined to make serious concessions on its nuclear program. The US administration has expressed concern about Russian plans to “buy Iranian crude,” but Russian foreign ministry officials told journalists: “We told the Americans it is none of their business; we may buy any amount of Iranian oil and sell Iran any goods we choose.” Russia it not breaching any mandatory United Nations sanctions by buying Iranian crude and selling Iran goods, the officials noted, while the unilateral Western oil and financial sanctions against Iran “are illegitimate” (Ú-Ãàçåòà - Ðîññèÿ óìååò ñåáå ïîñòàâèòü).
If sanctions are essentially leveraged out through this oil 'trade'. What good are they?
The biggest winners besides Iran will probably be every neighboring country via trade gravity model. Ergo it is very likely that trade growth will get a boost in the region if capital flows become more abundant.
Think about Iranian capital investing into Iraq, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and vice-versa yes very little sums or trade of goods but base amounts are very negligible at start always.
I actually think this is a major positive fore regional stability and economic growth. Relative ease of oil supply is also a good thing makes it cheaper for economies to use energy which is still fairly expensive.
As long as they don't go nuke crazy its all good.
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