Originally posted by SteveDaPirate
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Design of more advanced nuclear weapons require a much more extensive nuclear research program, which Iran is not constrained from doing under the current deal AFAIK.
Sanctions have vastly constrained Iran's overall ability to develop its military capabilities, ballistic missile programs, fund its proxies and develop that more extensive research program. Look at, for example, NK. Ostensibly they claim to "have nukes". But sanctions have heavily constrained their program. Even today there are questions regarding their nukes' effectiveness. More importantly, they have been slowed from building effective deliverable weapons and missiles at a pace that can overtake ABM defenses.
Without a deal, if Iran close the break out time, Iran will face increasing covert sabotage and if they break from that they will be bombed back by years. More importantly the toll of sanctions is starving them of resources to developd and produce deliverable weapons mounted pn ballistic missiles at a pace that would overwhelm regional abm deployment. Furthermore, sanctions place heavy constraints on their development of aa/ad capability so that their weapons and programs are vulnerable to attack.
With the deal, they can wait 13 years to !ake the actual nukes while doing all the auxiliary research and development they want using vastly more resources due to lifting of sanctions, build up their defenses and economic ties until there would be no easy way to attack them and no apetite for new sanctions from eu, and then test with likely minimal consequences. In other words:
Obama has just given them a smooth, sanctions free and highly advantageous 13 year road map to becoming a nuclear power!!!
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