Libya updates

[dave lukins]

"Britain would have greater sway in those discussions if the aircraft carrier HMS Ark Royal had not been lately decommissioned"

That'll teach Cameron not to sell off the family silver before the family is dead. It was a nap that this would happen whilst the middle east is in turmoil. His advisor's wouldn't get employed at Mothecare. :)

[T_igger_cs_30]

Losing Libya

The Times - March 14 2011 ( Leading Article)

By force of arms and brutality, Gaddafi is regaining control. Diplomatic pressure and protection of the rebel forces are urgent

While the world’s horrified attention is drawn to one humanitarian disaster, another is intensifying. The difference is that the plight of Japan’s people is due to the impersonal forces of nature, whereas catastrophe in Libya is being wreaked as a matter of policy. Colonel Muammar Gaddafi is driving back the rebels.

Against his depredations, Western policy has foundered. There needs to be utmost clarity towards Colonel Gaddafi’s criminal regime. David Cameron should act on his instincts and rally support to ratchet up diplomatic pressure. The alternative is stark. As Sir Malcolm Rifkind, the former Foreign Secretary, argues in The Times today, victory for Colonel Gaddafi would be a disaster not only for Libya’s people but for the entire Arab world (see page 24). The message to autocrats would be clear: the effective response to popular pressure is murderous repression, which the international community will allow to succeed.

Amid international divisions over the right response to Colonel Gaddafi, his forces have consolidated control. Rebels have lost the oil port of Ras Lanuf and are in retreat from Brega. A regime of sufficient brutality, facing an insurgency lacking weapons and military experience, has an unassailable advantage. Unless that is neutralised, the rebels will lose. The costs for them will be terrible. So will the threat to the Western democracies.

Libya’s agonies are not an internal issue that must be allowed to come to a natural conclusion, nor in any reputable sense are Libyans Colonel Gaddafi’s “own” people. This is a war of aggression fought by an illegitimate ruler against a captive people. If they are defeated, then the mercurial Colonel Gaddafi will turn on others. This is not merely a prediction but a description.

Colonel Gaddafi is by history and impulse a supporter of terrorism. The bombing of a Berlin nightclub in 1986 and of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie in 1988 are only the most notorious of his crimes. Even after his chastened diplomatic opening to the West in 2003, Colonel Gaddafi sponsored an assassination plot against Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. Violence employed casually but targeted deliberately is his method, within Libya’s borders and without.

There is no warrant in international law or self-defence to allow him to persist. There is a widely accepted principle of humanitarian intervention to stop the commission of crimes against humanity. It was justified after the Gulf War in 1991 to protect Iraq’s Kurds and in Nato’s actions in Kosovo in 1999 to prevent genocide by Serb forces. Mr Cameron should invoke it now against Colonel Gaddafi, and make clear the judicial consequences that will follow for troops that commit war crimes. He should also stress the danger that the unrestrained despot poses to the international order. He should consult, certainly, with Britain’s allies; but he cannot take no for an answer.

Unfortunately the most decisive statement by the Obama Administration on the crisis is scorn for a proposed no-fly zone. It is one thing to argue about the logistics of stopping Colonel Gaddafi’s warplanes from bombing rebel forces (and Britain would have greater sway in those discussions if the aircraft carrier HMS Ark Royal had not been lately decommissioned). But meanwhile Libya’s rebels beg and the Arab League urges the UN Security Council to impose a no-fly zone.

France and Britain support that call. The international coalition that President Obama appears to be awaiting is already there in outline. It needs mobilising. Mr Cameron should urgently reinforce that message in Washington. Economic sanctions and the freezing of assets are symbolically valuable but they will not depose a despot who has supped full with horrors. The rebels against him risk life and liberty. Their cause demands not just sympathy but active solidarity from the West.

As Sir Malcolm Rifkind, the former Foreign Secretary, argues in The Times today, victory for Colonel Gaddafi would be a disaster not only for Libya’s people but for the entire Arab world

(See below)

Arm the rebels. Gaddafi must not prevail
Sir Malcolm Rifkind is Conservative MP for Kensington and Chelsea and was Foreign Secretary from 1995-97

Supplying weapons would be legal and fair. We must not repeat the mistakes of Bosnia

The Libyan people could face total defeat in the next few weeks. The wheel of fortune is turning against them. In the past ten days Colonel Gaddafi has consolidated his position in Tripoli, cowing its inhabitants. He has driven the insurgents out of towns and enclaves near the capital and has now apparently recaptured the strategic oil town of Brega in the centre of the country.

His next aim will be to penetrate eastwards towards Benghazi, where the Revolutionary Council has its headquarters. Recapturing the east will not be easy for Gaddafi. His lines of communication will be stretched and Benghazi and the tribes of the east have always been hostile to his rule. But he has serious strengths denied to his enemies. Unlike the insurgents who have great courage but are lightly armed, he has a monopoly of air power and a massive preponderance of tanks and heavy artillery. The oil fields are mainly in the liberated east of the country, but the Government controls more than 80 per cent of the country’s refinery capacity. He has also brought in hundreds, and perhaps thousands, of mercenaries from neighbouring countries.

The reaction of the international community to events in Libya has, so far, been uncertain, disunited and at best tactical rather than strategic. To be truthful, until a few days ago this did not matter all that much. It seemed certain that Gaddafi was finished, his regime was crumbling and the only uncertainty was whether he would flee or be found cornered in a Tripoli bunker. That is no longer the case and the West and the international community must wake up to the enormous consequences if he is able to cling on to power and regain control of the whole country.

The consequences would not just be devastating for the Libyans but for the Arab world and the Middle East as a whole. The message would be clear to the despots in Syria, Iran and elsewhere. Reject reform, respond with brutality and you will retain power. Instead of the world welcoming an Arab Spring it would be like Budapest in 1956 and Prague in 1968, where freedom was postponed for a generation; or Tiananmen Square in 1989 — the Chinese are still waiting.

Furthermore, freedom in Egypt and Tunisia is still too fragile to be assured if the Middle East otherwise remains a region of dictators and despots. So the stakes have become very high.

What is needed is a clear and deliverable international strategy that would change the balance of power in Libya between Gaddafi and the insurgents without foreign troops invading the country. There should be four components to such a strategy.

First and most important should be an open and urgent supply of the necessary weapons to the insurgents so that they can fight Gaddafi on equal terms. The UN has imposed an arms embargo and some have suggested that this makes illegal any supply of weapons to either side in Libya. The UN Resolution, however, refers to a ban on arms supply to the Libyan “Jamahiriya”, which is Gaddafi’s invented name for the state he controls. It need not prevent supplies to those trying to bring him down.

Otherwise, we will repeat the mistake of the Bosnian war — when the UN embargo had much less impact on the Bosnian Serbs who were, already, heavily armed. Having been Defence Secretary at that time I have, in retrospect, felt that that was the most serious mistake made by the UN.

Gaddafi could hardly make successful propaganda from such arms supplies to the insurgents. He himself has internationalised the conflict by importing mercenaries from the surrounding countries of North Africa and the Middle East.

The second part of the strategy should be massive American and international pressure on the governments of Chad, Algeria and possibly Syria to stop their nationals becoming Gaddafi’s mercenaries.

They could not have been taken to Tripoli without permission of their governments, which should be warned that they face the fiercest sanctions unless they desist.

The third component of the strategy should be the no-fly zone. I had been unconvinced of the need, on humanitarian grounds, for such a step while the insurgents were winning. There is limited evidence of Gaddafi deliberately targeting civilians. Most of the air strikes have been aimed at arms dumps and insurgent units. The need for the no-fly zone is now unashamedly military. It will be essential in ensuring that Gaddafi cannot reconquer the east of Libya and may, in due course, help to defeat him in Libya as a whole.

But it still cannot happen if it is to be by the United States, Britain and France alone. That would be too much like Iraq, whereas the proper precedent should be the Gulf War in 1990, when Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia were part of the coalition that liberated Kuwait. The support of the Arab League for a no-fly zone (with only Syria and Algeria opposing), as well as the Gulf Co-operation Council, is a very big step in the right direction.

Fourth, it must be made even clearer than it has been that Gaddafi’s remaining generals and ministers face ending up in the International Criminal Court at The Hague unless they break with the Colonel. It is well known that that risk has already influenced many who have defected. More can be done.

There is little doubt that the vast majority of Libyans want Gaddafi gone. Most of the Arab world despises him. The future of the whole Middle East will be distorted and damaged if he remains in power.

This is not like Iraq ,where a military invasion by the US and the UK should never have happened and did enormous damage. What has to be addressed, and agreed urgently, is the need to help and enable the Libyan people to liberate themselves. That is a worthy cause, a sensible one and a cause consistent with both our ideals and our interests.

[T_igger_cs_30]

Right, but how to explain this ?

Video: British ambassador broadcast on Libyan state TV - Telegraph

I really cannot, but experience has taught me that diplomacy works in very strange ways DE in the short term. The long term always gives us a clearer picture of past events.
And just maybe this might just have something to do with it;

The telephone conversation was intercepted by Col Gaddafi's forces and broadcast on Libyan state television on Sunday night.

Never take anything at face value when it comes to dirty tactics. (AKA Diplomacy)

[kato]

Sure, but this castle also has access to a long coastline.
How to stop the supplies coming in ?

Libya still has a loyalist navy, and it's been pretty active in support of operations lately (shelling, transport).

[Double Edge]

Ya right DE,

Right, but how to explain this ?

Video: British ambassador broadcast on Libyan state TV - Telegraph

[Double Edge]

My take on the issue is that Rebels may not be better than Qadaffi long term, I speak simply based on my opinion. My thoughts revolves around many uprisings starting from the gatherings in the mosques and the overall tribal nature of the movement (2/3 largest tribes basically Warfalla and Misruta against the the rest). My view is more along the lines of bedoins/tauregs/berbers/and small arab tribes against two/three major urban arab tribes.

This implies necessarily, that the rebels have a gaddafi among them ?

I think your under the impression that they will go in and try to forcefully take it. My feeling is what they will do is set up a perimeter and pound it while making raids in and out until the city capitulates. Its similar to old style castle warfare. More focus on starving out the defenders in the castle(city) than taking it by force.

Sure, but this castle also has access to a long coastline.

How to stop the supplies coming in ?

[cyppok]

Not over here.

Latest article by German paper Zeit, 8 hours ago:

- loyalist troops took Brega after heavy combat
- rebels withdrawing about 80 km east to Adjabija, last base before Benghazi (!)
- loyalist troops also took smaller villages near Brega
- massed artillery and air strikes used in that area
- there is still combat going on around Misrata, still under rebel control (according to DW)
- Khamis brigade in combat there (according to Al Arabiya)
- some loyalist units have refused orders near Misrata (according to Al Arabiya)

There are supposedly up to several thousand loyalist people in Benghazi, some of which have committed several partisan/terrorist attacks in the past week, among them:
- bombing an ammo depot near the airport
- bombing a hotel with Western journalists near the port area
- shooting an Al Jazeera cameraman (dead) and reporter (injured)

Fleet Movements (Marineforum, Mar 11/12):

- Royal Navy possibly rerouting "Task Force Cougar" as "Response Force Task Group" - includes LPH Ocean, LPD Albion and FFG Sutherland
- EU and NATO will monitor, but not enforce embargo (SNMG1 and SNMCMG1 likely to be used on NATO side)
- French DDG Georges Leygues enroute to theater after repairs in Toulon (escort for Mistral)
- Italian DDG Andrea Doria (a Horizon!) is stationed off Libyan coast and performing fleet AAW surveillance
- US DDG Mason and SSN Providence (from Enterprise ESG) were moved through Suez on Friday

thanks for updates kato. I think if oil flow resumes the prices get depressed significantly globally. My take on the issue is that Rebels may not be better than Qadaffi long term, I speak simply based on my opinion. My thoughts revolves around many uprisings starting from the gatherings in the mosques and the overall tribal nature of the movement (2/3 largest tribes basically Warfalla and Misruta against the the rest). My view is more along the lines of bedoins/tauregs/berbers/and small arab tribes against two/three major urban arab tribes.

Rebels repel Gaddafi assault on Libya oil port - International Business Times

[kato]

Libya has disappeared off our screens and very few updates have been getting through.

Not over here.

Latest article by German paper Zeit, 8 hours ago:

- loyalist troops took Brega after heavy combat
- rebels withdrawing about 80 km east to Adjabija, last base before Benghazi (!)
- loyalist troops also took smaller villages near Brega
- massed artillery and air strikes used in that area
- there is still combat going on around Misrata, still under rebel control (according to DW)
- Khamis brigade in combat there (according to Al Arabiya)
- some loyalist units have refused orders near Misrata (according to Al Arabiya)

There are supposedly up to several thousand loyalist people in Benghazi, some of which have committed several partisan/terrorist attacks in the past week, among them:
- bombing an ammo depot near the airport
- bombing a hotel with Western journalists near the port area
- shooting an Al Jazeera cameraman (dead) and reporter (injured)

Fleet Movements (Marineforum, Mar 11/12):

- Royal Navy possibly rerouting "Task Force Cougar" as "Response Force Task Group" - includes LPH Ocean, LPD Albion and FFG Sutherland
- EU and NATO will monitor, but not enforce embargo (SNMG1 and SNMCMG1 likely to be used on NATO side)
- French DDG Georges Leygues enroute to theater after repairs in Toulon (escort for Mistral)
- Italian DDG Andrea Doria (a Horizon!) is stationed off Libyan coast and performing fleet AAW surveillance
- US DDG Mason and SSN Providence (from Enterprise ESG) were moved through Suez on Friday

[dave lukins]

Yea , snickers , but WTF did they use a Russian panzer for in the addy ??

Because we haven't got any left. Cameron has flogged them to the lowest bidder

[tankie]

Mr T is still on British screens...as an enforcer for a chocolate bar ad'

Yea , snickers , but WTF did they use a Russian panzer for in the addy ??

[dave lukins]

Haha, its been so looooong since i watched that

Mr T is still on British screens...as an enforcer for a chocolate bar ad'

[dave lukins]

'Bracing for massacre'
"We are bracing for a massacre," Mohamad Ahmed, a rebel fighter in the city, said. "We know it will happen and Misrata will be like Zawiya, but we believe in God. We do not have the capabilities to fight Gaddafi's and his forces. They have tanks and heavy weapons and we have our belief and trust in God.

Gaddafi's army will kill half a million, warn rebels - News - Mail & Guardian Online

Sadly since the earthquake off Japan, Libya has disappeared off our screens and very few updates have been getting through. Gaddafi's forces will no doubt take full advantage of this and with the world looking at the disaster elsewhere it will not be beyond his ethics to kill half a million of his own people.

[Double Edge]

Hey Wayne ,,,,, if your in trouble ,,and you need help , and if you can find them , then maybe you can hire , the ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,h,A,gue Team

Haha, its been so looooong since i watched that

[T_igger_cs_30]

Gaddafi's army will kill half a million, warn rebels

'Bracing for massacre'
"We are bracing for a massacre," Mohamad Ahmed, a rebel fighter in the city, said. "We know it will happen and Misrata will be like Zawiya, but we believe in God. We do not have the capabilities to fight Gaddafi and his forces. They have tanks and heavy weapons and we have our belief and trust in God.

Gaddafi's army will kill half a million, warn rebels - News - Mail & Guardian Online

[tankie]

Groan...puts lunch back in the oven as I've lost me appitite.:)