The Iran Deal

[Officer of Engineers]

Deals can be changed.

What changes can there be that can be good? There's only 2 choices. Either Iran lives up to the deal or she doesn't. If she wants to live up to the deal, why the fucking 15 year delay?

[SteveDaPirate]

An Ayatollah ran Middle East with nukes. Thanks but no thanks.

I want to make this clear. Iran is NOT obligated to destroy anything for 15 years. Not one single centrefuge. Not erase one single byte of data. Nothing. Iran gets to keep what she has for 15 years. She is obligated to allow IAEA to monitor all her HEU output which even then, she can delay up to 6 freaking months (more like 2 years given the way she can gumbled up the bureaucracy). The IAEA must rely on external intelligence gathering to keep Iran on her toes, meaning we're not stopping our jobs of watching Iran like a hawk.

After which, Iran still gets to retain all her rights under the NPT, including leaving it. Hell, there is NOTHING in this agreement that is stopping Iran from withdrawing from it and the NPT anytime she wants.

Anyone still thinks this is a fucking good idea?

The Brookings institution has a good breakdown of the timeline of how the deal is structured. It looks to me like "Implementation Day" won't be occurring until Iran has uninstalled and removed all the centrifuges and associated infrastructure beyond the handful they get to keep to save face. So while they aren't physically destroyed, they are to be removed and relocated under IAEA inspection prior to sanctions being lifted.

I wonder if the US has decided that Iran is going to get the bomb one way or another short of a major military intervention, and the deal provides time for the US to mature interceptor technology and put it into place to cover Israel and other regional allies.

There are some rather interesting developments with interceptors recently that include a single rocket carrying multiple independently targeted hit to kill vehicles.

It was generally accepted that MIRVs on a single ballistic missile would each require a separate interceptor to defeat, thus making ABM too expensive to seriously consider. Yet if a single interceptor missile (which can be smaller than an ICBM) can engage all the RVs from a MIRV, this could seriously change the balance of power and undermine MAD by providing relative immunity from a retaliatory strike. Considering that the Kill Vehicle in the video only weighs about 10 pounds, a single interceptor could carry a whole cloud of the things to even engage RV decoys and provide redundancy in the event of a miss or failure.

[Albany Rifles]

Just as a side note....

We, the US did not negotiate thsi deal with Iran.

The 5+1 Group negotiated this.

All the military might of the US wasn't worth a tinkers damn without the economic backing of the European powers & China.

And we had the most important nuclear eal pass through the Security Council without China or Russia imposing a veto.

That hasn't happened in quite awhile.

[Officer of Engineers]

It was always the US and Iran. The US always had the final go-no-go. This deal would not have had happenned without the US agreeing to it. By the same token, the other five countries combined could not stop any deal the US wanted through.

This is the 2nd fig leaf Putin has given Obama. The first was the Syrian chemical warhead stockpile.

Compare that to Nixon, he replaced Taipei with Beijing as a P5 member and nothing anyone can do could stop him.

[Officer of Engineers]

Seriously! Anyone want to tell me this is a freaking good deal?

Iran at no point is asked to complied to open her nuclear weapons research!!!!!!!

Are any of you seriously going to tell me that iran has not and is not violating the npt???????

[SteveDaPirate]

I'd argue that it is a good deal.

Iran loses most of her stockpiled enriched uranium, has to brick a reactor, dismantle most of her centrifuges and infrastructure, and cannot begin stockpiling enriched uranium again for more than a decade. Inspectors will be surveying her sites to confirm she isn't cheating, but it will also give the West insight into how those sites are constructed should airstrikes be called for in the future, making the job easier.

Just getting expert eyeballs inside places like Fordow rather than looking at pictures from a drone would probably make the deal worth it. If Iran subsequently cheats, the job is now that much easier for the USAF.

So what if Iran has research? Research is easily hidden, but as long as the infrastructure and materials are monitored, Iran doesn't get a bomb. Besides, the know how to assemble a functional nuke isn't exactly unheard of by NPT signatories. How long do you think it would take Japan, SK, or even Canada to go nuclear if they decided it was in their interests to do so?

What exactly does the US stand to lose here? Sanctions didn't stop Iran's enrichment activity, and their removal won't change the ability of the US to curb stomp Iran at the time of her choosing.

It's time to try a different approach and see if it works. If Iran cheats we are back to where we are today, if the deal works we renegotiate to extend it another 15 years when this one is about to expire.

[Officer of Engineers]

Iran loses most of her stockpiled enriched uranium, has to brick a reactor, dismantle most of her centrifuges and infrastructure, and cannot begin stockpiling enriched uranium again for more than a decade.

It took dirt poor North Korea 3 years to unbrick her reactor and under 5 to begin weapons grade material production. Iran will be flushed with oil money.

Inspectors will be surveying her sites to confirm she isn't cheating, but it will also give the West insight into how those sites are constructed should airstrikes be called for in the future, making the job easier.

15 years delay with all her equipment in pristine storage. Saddam wished he had it so good.

Just getting expert eyeballs inside places like Fordow rather than looking at pictures from a drone would probably make the deal worth it. If Iran subsequently cheats, the job is now that much easier for the USAF.

You're assuming that they're not building another site. Fordow caught the Russians and the Chinese by surprise. And no American inspectors will be allowed.

So what if Iran has research? Research is easily hidden, but as long as the infrastructure and materials are monitored, Iran doesn't get a bomb. Besides, the know how to assemble a functional nuke isn't exactly unheard of by NPT signatories. How long do you think it would take Japan, SK, or even Canada to go nuclear if they decided it was in their interests to do so?

None of them did so clandestinely.

What exactly does the US stand to lose here? Sanctions didn't stop Iran's enrichment activity, and their removal won't change the ability of the US to curb stomp Iran at the time of her choosing.

S300s defending their sites.

It's time to try a different approach and see if it works. If Iran cheats we are back to where we are today, if the deal works we renegotiate to extend it another 15 years when this one is about to expire.

With a S300 AD net in place.

[looking4NSFS]

It's time to try a different approach and see if it works. If Iran cheats we are back to where we are today, if the deal works we renegotiate to extend it another 15 years when this one is about to expire.[/QUOTE]

One of the ways the world will not be able to go back to where we are today is Russia and China agreeing to reinstate the sanctions once they are lifted. I do like the idea of a different approach. Perhaps we missed the mark on that in 2009 when there was unrest which went unsupported by the west.

[SteveDaPirate]

It took dirt poor North Korea 3 years to unbrick her reactor and under 5 to begin weapons grade material production. Iran will be flushed with oil money.

15 years delay with all her equipment in pristine storage. Saddam wished he had it so good.

In the absence of a deal, this equipment keeps on truckin' with nary a pause at all. How is a delay of a decade or so worse than continued operation?

You're assuming that they're not building another site. Fordow caught the Russians and the Chinese by surprise. And no American inspectors will be allowed.

This is always a possibility deal or not. With a deal in place it is less likely, as the repercussions of getting caught include sanctions snapping back and the perfect causus belli for the US. Without a deal it's just another spot on the map for drones to keep an eye on.

With a S300 AD net in place.

S300s may represent a speed bump, but shouldn't be a deal breaker for the US. American allies like Egypt and even NATO members like Greece and Turkey have S300 systems, and the US has certainly had the opportunity to study them thoroughly.

By the time Iran gets an actual IADS based on the S300 setup, the US will have F-35s, Next Generation Jammers, stealthy munitions, and perhaps even warship based railguns to dismantle such a system.

The deal is set to delay Iran's ability to build a bomb longer than if we carried out airstrikes tomorrow, without ever removing the ability to carry out said airstrikes if Iran proves dishonorable.

[astralis]

col,

It took dirt poor North Korea 3 years to unbrick her reactor and under 5 to begin weapons grade material production. Iran will be flushed with oil money.

I don't think money was ever the LIMFAC for Iran on this, though. they had years of grinding, harsher than anticipated sanctions and they STILL massively expanded the number of centrifuges.

as for the S-300s, come now, do you think there's any one weapons platform that will really prevent USAF from conducting a massive SEAD campaign followed by bunker buster bombs shortly thereafter?

the main factor is how much will Iran cheat, and can they be caught.

frankly there's not that much incentive for Iran to openly cheat. with the trade and money from this deal they can cement their regional power status. being able to threaten nuclear breakout is more useful for Iran than actually having a few nukes.

[Doktor]

The only good thong I see from this is freedom of movement for the regular Iranian and the exchange of ideas. Coca Cola revolution if you will.

[citanon]

col,

as for the S-300s, come now, do you think there's any one weapons platform that will really prevent USAF from conducting a massive SEAD campaign followed by bunker buster bombs shortly thereafter?

Yes. Deterrence from offensive capability provided by massive numbers of improved short and intermediate range ballistic missiles, along with advanced anti-ship missiles targeting shipping traffic in the Persian Gulf.

[Officer of Engineers]

the main factor is how much will Iran cheat, and can they be caught.

That says it all.

[astralis]

citanon,

Yes. Deterrence from offensive capability provided by massive numbers of improved short and intermediate range ballistic missiles, along with advanced anti-ship missiles targeting shipping traffic in the Persian Gulf.

lol, if the USAF can't handle iran in that regards, USAF has no hope of handling china.

and we're not afraid of handling china.

[astralis]

col,

That says it all.

of course. I don't think anyone is naïve enough to think Iran will keep 100% of their commitments.

OTOH I think the deal will certainly slow them down because there was no incentive, other than the fear of outright war, that Iran would slow down beforehand.

given the number of centrifuges they built during the sanctions period I think that shows you how much they feared war. a completely accurate risk assessment; if -bush- couldn't bring himself to do it with 100,000+ US troops next door, what were the chances of ANY successor president doing it, especially given the Iraq debacle?

now there's a powerful incentive to vastly slow down, if only to put up the appearance of keeping to their commitments.