The Iran Deal

[Zinja]

I don't understand, isn't one of the hallmarks of this deal the stringent regime of routine IAEA [/url]

Define stringent. I would hardly call any regime that gives 24 days notice stringent. It is delusional to define a 24 days gaping hole 'stringent'. Answer me this question: why does Iran need 24 days' notice?

... which upon denial of access results in the reinstallment of pre-deal sanctions ......

Forget 1,2,5 years later, Iran is digging Parchin right now in the pretext of a none existent road works, what has been the consequences? Anyone talking about snapping back sanctions? If you think international sanctions will simply snap back just because the US says so, think again. With such diverse interests in the playing field, the international sanctions leverage has now been forfeited. Try and convince China to give up selling J-10s (if rumors are true) to Iran and discounted oil promised just because US says Iran has violated. Try convince Russia to reverse S-300 sales when oil prices are rock bottom and the economy hemorrhaging with budget deficits just because the US says Iran violated the agreement. This is all wishful thinking. Like I said, this deal has taken everything off the table. There is no more leverage left now. Iran is now firmly in the driving seat.

and evaluation for further economic and/or military action? [/url]

Are you kidding me! Obama has all but assured everyone that there will be no military option at any given time!

This isn't to mention increasing the time it would take for Iran to build a weapon if it were to back out of the deal?

The only thing now that truly would have delayed Iran's nuclear program is the technical know how of the components side of the equation. They have no use now of enrichment know-how because they already have it. According to this deal its all safely stored away in a hanger somewhere with brand spanking new, faster and more efficient centrifuges just waiting for the Ayatollah to give the word again. What they lack, the components side, is what they need time for. This deal does not curb their research for that. And even if they are suspected, they have the luxurious 24 days to just shift everything to wherever. BREAKING NEWS: NOT ALL COMPONENTS REQUIRE ACTUAL FISSILE MATERIAL FOR TESTING!

[1980s]

29 U.S. Scientists Praise Iran Nuclear Deal in Letter to Obama

"Twenty-nine of the nation’s top scientists — including Nobel laureates, veteran makers of nuclear arms and former White House science advisers — wrote to President Obama on Saturday to praise the Iran deal, calling it innovative and stringent.

The letter, from some of the world’s most knowledgeable experts in the fields of nuclear weapons and arms control, arrives as Mr. Obama is lobbying Congress, the American public and the nation’s allies to support the agreement."

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/09/wo...ref=middleeast

[SteveDaPirate]

Zinja,

The idea that China and Russia would maintain sanctions in the absence of continued progress towards a deal is mistaken. They were willing to sign on because of the potential for a diplomatic solution that opens Iran up for business. Without US willingness to work towards a deal, international support for sanctions dries up. On the other hand, the parties of the deal have agreed to reinstate sanctions should Iran get caught cheating.

[Red Team]

Zinja,

Obama has pretty much said that the only possible alternative to this deal in preventing Iran from getting a nuke is military action. The deal itself may be a way out of war, but I see no explicit indication that military action has been taken off the table if the Iran were to renege on its end of the bargain.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/06/us...at-of-war.html

[MJH]

And the argument that we could have achieved a better deal is merely assertion. P5+1, including a Conservative Gov't in UK had been negotiating for 9 years. Huckabee's assertion that we gave up everything for absolutely nothing is just nonsense. cf pragmaticliberalism.com and search under Iran for the article on the deal being a Win for us.

[MJH]

For some reason many people simply want to ignore this fact????

[MJH]

Zinja,

The idea that China and Russia would maintain sanctions in the absence of continued progress towards a deal is mistaken. They were willing to sign on because of the potential for a diplomatic solution that opens Iran up for business. Without US willingness to work towards a deal, international support for sanctions dries up. On the other hand, the parties of the deal have agreed to reinstate sanctions should Iran get caught cheating.

Russia already was doing business with Iran when they "went along" with the sanctions. And they share a common border and have their own Muslim problems (eg Chechen). They hardly would close their eyes to Iran going ahead on developing a nuclear bomb. The EU also is in lock-step with the us on this point.

What I don't get is how people can feel safer without the agreement.

[MJH]

I don't understand, isn't one of the hallmarks of this deal the stringent regime of routine IAEA inspections which upon denial of access results in the reinstallment of pre-deal sanctions and evaluation for further economic and/or military action? This isn't to mention increasing the time it would take for Iran to build a weapon if it were to back out of the deal?

Found this article that seems to give the Cliffnotes: http://www.vox.com/2015/7/16/8974507...plained-expert

Excuse me, I'm new here and just read your post and replied. My comment: For some reason many people simply want to ignore this fact???? was meant in response to your point.

[Officer of Engineers]

Of course we could have gotten a better deal. On demand inspections with a max of 72 hours delay, not 24 days which translated means 100+ days the way Iran has been gumming up the bureaucracy of denial.

[Officer of Engineers]

Russia already was doing business with Iran when they "went along" with the sanctions. And they share a common border and have their own Muslim problems (eg Chechen). They hardly would close their eyes to Iran going ahead on developing a nuclear bomb. The EU also is in lock-step with the us on this point.

Well, they didn't see Fordow and no one saw the extent of AQ Khan's work.

What I don't get is how people can feel safer without the agreement.

I don't feel safe at all. The Pakistanis confirmed that AQ Khan has sold Iran CHANGAI-I and CICH-4 blueprints to Tehran. It would be a strategic mistake to assume that Iran has not figured out how they should work. They can't get any further without a test and they need other things, namely, a working rocket that can house a nuke and the sanctions are killing those. And North Korean rockets ain't worth crap.

So now, they can buy Russian and Chinese rockets. I feel much safer already.

[Zinja]

Zinja,

The idea that China and Russia would maintain sanctions in the absence of continued progress towards a deal is mistaken. They were willing to sign on because of the potential for a diplomatic solution that opens Iran up for business. Without US willingness to work towards a deal, international support for sanctions dries up. On the other hand, the parties of the deal have agreed to reinstate sanctions should Iran get caught cheating.

You are making a false argument. No one said the US it to not have 'willingness to work towards a deal', you are misrepresenting what I am saying. I am saying the current deal does not cut it, something better should be sought.

[Zinja]

Zinja,

Obama has pretty much said that the only possible alternative to this deal in preventing Iran from getting a nuke is military action.

That is the false choice that some of us are calling him out on. He is trying to cover up his abysmal negotiating skills that produced a bad deal by giving people a false choice that he wants people to believe. I am saying the best way of preventing Oran getting a nuke is a better deal.

Zinja,
....but I see no explicit indication that military action has been taken off the table if the Iran were to renege on its end of the bargain.

Are you kidding me? He was asked what if Iran indeed cheats, then what? He couldn't bring himself to say the 'm' word. Obama has all but assured that the military and all other options are now off the table.

[Zinja]

Russia already was doing business with Iran when they "went along" with the sanctions. And they share a common border and have their own Muslim problems (eg Chechen). They hardly would close their eyes to Iran going ahead on developing a nuclear bomb. The EU also is in lock-step with the us on this point.

No Russia was selling Iran any ballistic missile tech. No Russia was dealing with any of companies and individuals that were blacklisted by the UN sanctions. No Iran was able to sell weapons, at least not legally, to the outside world. Russia, China and all were enforcing that. Now all that leverage and screws with it are gone over night just because of this deal.

What I don't get is how people can feel safer without the agreement.

What i don't understand is how Iran will feel safer without a deal.

[Squirrel]

Well, they didn't see Fordow and no one saw the extent of AQ Khan's work.

I don't feel safe at all. The Pakistanis confirmed that AQ Khan has sold Iran CHANGAI-I and CICH-4 blueprints to Tehran. It would be a strategic mistake to assume that Iran has not figured out how they should work. They can't get any further without a test and they need other things, namely, a working rocket that can house a nuke and the sanctions are killing those. And North Korean rockets ain't worth crap.

So now, they can buy Russian and Chinese rockets. I feel much safer already.

Sir, your reliance on foreign intelligence is baffling. Citing Chinese, Russian, and now Pakistani intelligence as credible is dubious, if not just intellectually lazy. Just because it seems to confirm a bias doesn't make it reliable.

[Officer of Engineers]

Not sure what you mean by that.

It was the Chinese and the Russians who provided the IAEA with proof of Iranian weapons activities. The Swiss found the CHANGAI-I blueprints in an AK Khan associate's office in Geneva. Gaddaffi release his papers which included the CICH-4 blueprint from AQ Khan. So, we know AQ Khan had both sets of blueprints and he sold Gaddaffi the CICH-4 blueprint. We have the paper trail.

American intel has stated AQ Khan's activities and stated he sold the same package to Lybia, North Korea, and Iran. AQ Khan has always maintained what he did was under the orders of Islamabad. Pakistani Generals maintained that AQ Khan did this on his own, including CHANGAI-I blueprints.

Edit: Gotcha. It was not Chinese, Russian, or Pakistani intel. The Chinese and the Russians unknowingly sold Iran some dual use nuclear materials before they became suspicious of Iranian intent. They reported the sales to the IAEA and then scrutinized the intent.

AQ Khan is a Pakistani national who has been selling Pakistani nuclear secrets. Gaddaffi openned his books and showed a CICH-4 blueprint that he got from AQ Khan. We found the CHANGAI-I blueprints in an AQ Khan's office in Geneva or at least the Swiss did. The Pakistanis confirmed that AQ Khan has indeed sold it to Iran.

There is indeed a whole paper trail in Pakistan of centrifuges being sold and delivered to Iran.