Netanyahu Addresses Congress

[Officer of Engineers]

Do you remember Europe's ABC campaign? Anybody But Carter.

This will blow over with the next Administration.

[Parihaka]

I'd say that the Caliphate is right now the deadly threat for the KSA.

The thing with the ME wasn't easy to begin with,but right now we're in a position that's more complicated.

The most pressing issue for the Sunni world is the Arab street.The Arab street is not about democracy,but after entitlement and power.If it's not IS,then somebody else will respond to this revolutionary call.KSA is particularly vulnerable.
The Arab governments are torn between the their own revolutionaries and the lil' detail that their revenue source is in Shia land or near Shia land.Thus,nature places the Shia in a better position,while the grand war with the Sunnis and the nature of the Iranian state and society gives them an edge in combat.They have the better men.
The best Arab army,the Jordanians,are too few and isolated to turn the tide,while the Egyptians and Saudis are paper tigers.The Saudis can always hire Erik Prince,but mercenaries vs. fanatics usually ends with the mercs taking all the money and packing up,leaving the employer at the mercy of the fanatics.

So,while the Iranians and the Kurds will beat the IS,that leaves the islamists only one way to go and that's into the KSA.Enough chaos in the KSA brings in the IRCG to secure the oilfields,which are mostly in Shia lands anyway.That puts the West in a relative good position,because we are about oil.But we lose the ability to put pressure on Russia.And also brings more revolution into Sunni lands.Since nature abhors a vacuum and since ruling the realm with the sword only works to a point,the Turks are the natural heirs of the chaos and turmoil,both as builders and defenders against the Shias.
Which puts the Israelis in a pretty tight spot.As DE said,they have to support the existing order,because otherwise they get a Caliphate of sorts on their borders.If it doesn't works,you'll see them working with Iran.

To some it may sound crazy.Welcome to the real world.

Btw,I bet we'll see some very unconventional attacks on the KSA,originating in Mother Russia.

I've heard it said for years here that the Israelis are a client state of the U.S., Americas bitch if you like. Yet Netanyahu has been happy to beard the lion in its den. Wise or not, I don't think Netanyahu and his supporters see it that way any longer. Love him or hate him, Obama has rewritten the terms and conditions for what the U.S. regards as its vital interests in the area.

[Parihaka]

Do you remember Europe's ABC campaign? Anybody But Carter.

This will blow over with the next Administration.

Yes I do, but it's going to take an extremely active new American president to reset/re-establish relationships in the Middle East after Obama. Do they have a Reagan in the wings?
I rather suspect we're going to see another internally focused president, and the go-ahead of the keystone pipeline

[Officer of Engineers]

Yes I do, but it's going to take an extremely active new American president to reset/re-establish relationships in the Middle East after Obama. Do they have a Reagan in the wings?
I rather suspect we're going to see another internally focused president, and the go-ahead of the keystone pipeline

Who else do the Saudis have? The Israelis? The Pakistanis? Either of them are going put up a nuke umbrella over Ridyah? The only real alternative are the Russians.

[Mihais]

But what the Saudis have to offer the Russians?
So far,the Saudis have been busy screwing Russian interests in every way possible,from sponsoring active enemies of Russia to ruining their budget.Twice.The Russians have nothing to gain if they save the Saudis and quite a lot to gain if they let them die.

[Parihaka]

Who else do the Saudis have? The Israelis? The Pakistanis? Either of them are going put up a nuke umbrella over Ridyah? The only real alternative are the Russians.

I didn't consider these worth posting at the time.
BBC News - Saudi nuclear weapons 'on order' from Pakistan
http://www.discoversociety.org/2014/...-against-iran/

[Double Edge]

In my quietly humble opinion, they already have. As an example, were they suddenly to need a regular Iranian division at Tikrit or Kurkuk, do you expect them to need to or bother to ask the Iraqi govt. first?

Hmm, you would wonder why they haven't done it yet. Would be misinterpreted and end up counter productive.

I didn't consider these worth posting at the time.
BBC News - Saudi nuclear weapons 'on order' from Pakistan
A Nuclear Deal? Can Pakistan support Saudi Arabia against Iran? | Discover Society

More immediate concerns for the Saudis right now. Mercs & Trainers on order

The Pakistan security forces have long acted as a military reserve for the House of Saud. After the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979, Gen. Zia ul Haque sent Pakistani troops to bolster Saudi security. The size and scope of that deployment was never revealed.

Early last year, there was a Saudi ‘gift’ to Pakistan of $1.5 billion when Islamabad’s foreign exchange reserves sunk to a perilously low level. Analysts in the region linked this gift to requests from Riyadh for the recruitment and training of Saudi-backed Sunni militant groups fighting the Bashar al Assad regime in Syria.

paks always find a way to make themselves useful.

[Double Edge]

I'd say that the Caliphate is right now the deadly threat for the KSA.

The thing with the ME wasn't easy to begin with,but right now we're in a position that's more complicated.

The most pressing issue for the Sunni world is the Arab street.The Arab street is not about democracy,but after entitlement and power.If it's not IS,then somebody else will respond to this revolutionary call.KSA is particularly vulnerable.

The muslims have to double up on the non-military side. concentrating solely on military ends up putting down Daish V1, what about v2,3,4 & 5 ? political , educational, get on the damn social media and counter these guys at least. Supposed to be custodians of islam then get out and tell the people what islam is about. Counter narratives.

This is about more than guns and bullets, its about ideas that cross borders circumvent restrictions and implant themselves in the brains of the people in your camp. These guys are good. Jihadis with MBA's.

The Arab governments are torn between the their own revolutionaries and the lil' detail that their revenue source is in Shia land or near Shia land.Thus,nature places the Shia in a better position,while the grand war with the Sunnis and the nature of the Iranian state and society gives them an edge in combat.They have the better men.

The sunni-sunni fight is more important right now than sunni-shia.

muslim vs US is further away and Israel isn't even in the conversation.

The arabs think they can starve Daish and they will be gone in a few years. It will keep coming back and they will be fighting this thing for years unless they get their act in order and start now. Nobody else can do it. This is a muslim fight that can only be won by muslims. The fire is already close to the house, but this is all lame western hype isn't it.

The best Arab army,the Jordanians,are too few and isolated to turn the tide,while the Egyptians and Saudis are paper tigers.The Saudis can always hire Erik Prince,but mercenaries vs. fanatics usually ends with the mercs taking all the money and packing up,leaving the employer at the mercy of the fanatics.

Jordan is under a lot of stress. has been for years now.

So,while the Iranians and the Kurds will beat the IS,that leaves the islamists only one way to go and that's into the KSA.Enough chaos in the KSA brings in the IRCG to secure the oilfields,which are mostly in Shia lands anyway.That puts the West in a relative good position,because we are about oil.But we lose the ability to put pressure on Russia.And also brings more revolution into Sunni lands.Since nature abhors a vacuum and since ruling the realm with the sword only works to a point,the Turks are the natural heirs of the chaos and turmoil,both as builders and defenders against the Shias.

I don't think it will happen that way, they will rely on internal discontent and exploit it. The Saudis made a pact with their people when the arab spring was on, be quiet and we will take care of you. well, that was when oil was selling for much more. still the saudis have the money for another few more years, beyond is questionable.

To some it may sound crazy.Welcome to the real world.

Btw,I bet we'll see some very unconventional attacks on the KSA,originating in Mother Russia.

Why ? Assad has been whitewashed and is now a good guy.

if the saudis take a more active role then they will automatically become targets. No russians needed.

[Doktor]

Meanwhile...
Saudi Arabia becomes world's biggest defense importer | The Times of Israel

[Officer of Engineers]

I didn't consider these worth posting at the time.
BBC News - Saudi nuclear weapons 'on order' from Pakistan
A Nuclear Deal? Can Pakistan support Saudi Arabia against Iran? | Discover Society

They still aren't worth posting.

1) Pakistan doesn't have enough nukes to face both India and Iran.
2) Saudi DF-31s are maintained by Chinese contractors. You can bet your ass that China will withdraw them once it's determined that they will be armed with Pakistani nukes.
3) Pakistan will not give Saudi nukes (NPT and AQ Khan fiasco) which means in the best case scenario, Pakistani nukes would be mated to Saudi bought DF-31s from China (again Chinese contracting engineers).
4) The Saudis have never practiced launch one.

And

Come to think of it, if I were in Tehran, I would tell the Saudis. Go for it. You pissed off the Americans, alienate the Chinese, aimed Moscow's nuclear barrel right down Saudi throats, become a target for active Israeli bombing. Turn my two biggest rivals in the region, the KSA and Israel, against each other ... and the withdrawl of American support/protection on one of them and the Pakistanis can't replace it ... yeah, go for it.

[Blademaster]

Name me one ally who got the warm fuzzies from Obama.

Well maybe that's a good thing. It's about time that those allies stop mooching off us and start pulling up their pants and their weight instead of looking to us every time and expecting us to solve their own problems that they created in the first goddamn place.

[Blademaster]

Do you remember Europe's ABC campaign? Anybody But Carter.

This will blow over with the next Administration.

Well he pulled off Camp David accords and pulled Egypt back into US orbit and saved Israel from another way with Egypt, didn't he?

[Parihaka]

They still aren't worth posting.

1) Pakistan doesn't have enough nukes to face both India and Iran.

Remind me again who supplied the Norks and Iranians with technology

2) Saudi DF-31s are maintained by Chinese contractors. You can bet your ass that China will withdraw them once it's determined that they will be armed with Pakistani nukes.

Remind me again who supplied the Pakistanis with nuclear and missile technology, mated to the nukes.

3) Pakistan will not give Saudi nukes (NPT and AQ Khan fiasco) which means in the best case scenario, Pakistani nukes would be mated to Saudi bought DF-31s from China (again Chinese contracting engineers).

See above

4) The Saudis have never practiced launch one.

They know they have at least five years, that's why they're calling in favours and growing their already extensive trade deals now.

[Officer of Engineers]

Remind me again who supplied the Norks and Iranians with technology

The NKs were the Soviets. The Iranians were the NKs.

Remind me again who supplied the Pakistanis with nuclear and missile technology, mated to the nukes.

See above

Deng Xia Peng. He's dead. And despite the help, the CHANGAI warheads were all duds. Open source intel says the Chinese has refused to help the Pakistanis to find out why.

And AQ Khan has embarrassed the Chinese.

They know they have at least five years, that's why they're calling in favours and growing their already extensive trade deals now.

Still no launch exercise and looks like they never will.

[Officer of Engineers]

Well maybe that's a good thing. It's about time that those allies stop mooching off us and start pulling up their pants and their weight instead of looking to us every time and expecting us to solve their own problems that they created in the first goddamn place.

Within this topic's context, when leadership is lacking, those following would seek leadership somewhere else; read the Israelis and the Saudis. Bush, Clinton, and Reagan knew how to slap the Israelis down. Obama just pouts.

Well he pulled off Camp David accords and pulled Egypt back into US orbit and saved Israel from another way with Egypt, didn't he?

And got Sadat killed.