Islamist Militants Take Mosul

[Minskaya]

This was probably inevitable...

CNN -Joint Chiefs chairman: Iraq has asked for U.S. air power to counter militants

There is a fierce battle going on at the huge Baiji oil refinery 155 miles north of Baghdad. Baiji processes about one quarter of Iraq's oil and this is the petroleum that Iraq uses for domestic consumption. Although Baghdad denies it, journalists say that ISIS forces now hold most of the refinery.

[Minskaya]

If I recall correctly, the Obama administration has already said no air support unless Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki steps down.

[Minskaya]

From president Obama's press conference today...

We've positioned additional U.S. military assets in the region. Because of our increased intelligence resources, we're developing more information about potential targets associated with ISIL. And going forward, we will be prepared to take targeted and precise military action, if and when we determine that the situation on the ground requires it.

The US will be sending 300 military 'advisers' to Iraq to assist the Iraqi military. I would assume the military assets mentioned are fighter aircraft and speculate that the military adviser force includes FACs/JTACs and armed drones.

[citanon]

From president Obama's press conference today...

The US will be sending 300 military 'advisers' to Iraq to assist the Iraqi military. I would assume the military assets mentioned are fighter aircraft and speculate that the military adviser force includes FACs/JTACs and armed drones.

This makes sense but is also risky. Basically I'm guessing there's no way that the US would let the Iraqis, or heaven forbid, the Iranians designate targets for US airstrikes. Imagine the potential for abuse there in what is quickly turning into a sectarian warfare situation. So then we have to have our own guys on the ground. But they will be surrounded by people whose loyalty (not to mention steadfastness) no one can count on. The security of these advisers will need to be very well thought out.

For example, what if elements of the Quds Force want to create a high casualty situation to draw the US further into the war against the Sunnis?

So these US advisers will have to have very high security and being embedded with Iraqi special forces elements that they know and have advised before. There also needs to be contingency plans to extract them, etc. All in all very complicated and I don't envy the task our military commanders are now faced with.

Even with our advisers there, the question is, who do you strike? Do you limit your strikes to ISIL elements? Do you also engage tribal fighters? Baathist remnants? How do you tell who is who?

IMHO some of the clearer missions down south include:

1. Recovering the oil refinery complexes
2. Stopping any further rebel advances on Baghdad
3. Securing routes into Saudi Arabia from Western Iraq

Beyond that things become a lot murkier. It would be much easier if they manage to get Maliki to step down.

[Minskaya]

Smoke billows from the huge oil refinery near Baiji where ISIL and the GoI battle for control. The green ribbon is vegetation along the Tigris river.

The satellite image (438 miles) hints at the fires and conflict raging below.

[astralis]

If I recall correctly, the Obama administration has already said no air support unless Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki steps down.

Petraeus said it quite succintly; we have no interest in turning the USAF into the Shi'a Air Force.

[Minskaya]

Petraeus said it quite succintly; we have no interest in turning the USAF into the Shi'a Air Force.

I believe that is why Obama is injecting the 300 advisers. Part of this force will be embedded with Iraqi forces at the battalion level. The remainder will staff one control center in Baghdad and another in the Kurdish north. The goal here would be to collate ISR information and judiciously isolate tactical targets. A difficult mission under the chaotic circumstances.

[n21]

Something interesting is happening in the middle east. You have Iranian trained Hizbollah, Syrian army & militia and potentially now Iraqi(Shia) force. If Iran manages to do to Iraqi forces, what it did with the Syrians, we are fundamentally looking at battle hardened, organised Middle East wide Shia units at Iran's command!

They are already moving across borders in the Middle East.

All this when Sunni's supposed guardian, Saudi is sitting on it's a**.

The Sunnis cannot even look up to Saudi to provide the kind of training that Iran/ IRGC can provide!

[Bigfella]

Something interesting is happening in the middle east. You have Iranian trained Hizbollah, Syrian army & militia and potentially now Iraqi(Shia) force. If Iran manages to do to Iraqi forces, what it did with the Syrians, we are fundamentally looking at battle hardened, organised Middle East wide Shia units at Iran's command!

They are already moving across borders in the Middle East.

All this when Sunni's supposed guardian, Saudi is sitting on it's a**.

The Sunnis cannot even look up to Saudi to provide the kind of training that Iran/ IRGC can provide!

Take a deep breath there hoss. Using that logic the armed forces of Afghanistan & Iraq are at America's 'command' and Pakistan's are at the 'command' of the US & China....and so forth. Do you think the US & China see tings that way? I don't.

Religion is just one dividing line in this region. Ethnicity is just as important....no matter what the Jihadis want to tell themselves about Islamic Caliphates. Just ask the Kurds. The Arab/Persian divide that has been grinding on for over a millennia now (maybe two) isn't suddenly going to up & go away because a few Sunnis with black flags put a scare into people. Iraqi Shia were the footsoldiers in Saddams bloody war against Iran. They didn't just do that because they were afraid of Saddam. They have their own identity, not just as Arabs & Iraqis, but as Shias who see themselves as the rightful custodians of the religion.

As for Assad, he hasn't fought this long & this hard & done this much damage to his own nation to hand over his armed forces to some Iranian.

Iran is buying a fair amount of influence in the region, no doubt. It can set up a network of allies/clients beyond anything it could have imagined a few years ago, but they aren't exactly the old Warsaw Pact. Two nations wracked by ethno-religious divisions & crippled by war & dictatorship do not an empire make, even if those nations were of a mind to become branch offices of Tehran. I don't think they will. Dependant allies at best. If you want to see how not useful those can be, I direct you to Pakistan or South Vietnam.

[n21]

Take a deep breath there hoss. Using that logic the armed forces of Afghanistan & Iraq are at America's 'command' and Pakistan's are at the 'command' of the US & China....and so forth. Do you think the US & China see tings that way? I don't.

Religion is just one dividing line in this region. Ethnicity is just as important....no matter what the Jihadis want to tell themselves about Islamic Caliphates. Just ask the Kurds. The Arab/Persian divide that has been grinding on for over a millennia now (maybe two) isn't suddenly going to up & go away because a few Sunnis with black flags put a scare into people. Iraqi Shia were the footsoldiers in Saddams bloody war against Iran. They didn't just do that because they were afraid of Saddam. They have their own identity, not just as Arabs & Iraqis, but as Shias who see themselves as the rightful custodians of the religion.

As for Assad, he hasn't fought this long & this hard & done this much damage to his own nation to hand over his armed forces to some Iranian.

Iran is buying a fair amount of influence in the region, no doubt. It can set up a network of allies/clients beyond anything it could have imagined a few years ago, but they aren't exactly the old Warsaw Pact. Two nations wracked by ethno-religious divisions & crippled by war & dictatorship do not an empire make, even if those nations were of a mind to become branch offices of Tehran. I don't think they will. Dependant allies at best. If you want to see how not useful those can be, I direct you to Pakistan or South Vietnam.

So how do you explain Iraqi Shias getting involved in Syria? what is in for them that they should help Syria?

Think you missed the gist of my post. It is not about building empire, nor am I talking about regular armies. If Iran manages to help Iraq defeat ISIS, then fundamentally it has managed to crush a Middle East Wide Sunni "uprising". And the forces who manage to do this were all trained by Iran.

Result battle hardened urban fighters, which Iran is able to deploy to help Shia allies, just like Hizbollah.

Sure people fight based on identity. If you are targeting for being Shia, you will fight as Shia. If you targeted for being a Iraqi, you will fight as a Iraqi.

Right now it is a Sunni-Shia fight, over Arab Persian conflict.

[zraver]

Think you missed the gist of my post. It is not about building empire, nor am I talking about regular armies. If Iran manages to help Iraq defeat ISIS, then fundamentally it has managed to crush a Middle East Wide Sunni "uprising". And the forces who manage to do this were all trained by Iran.

And???? What are Iran's goals? They need a stable oil price. Its not the 90's anymore where the PG is the only oil game in town so no massive embargo and price spike, just stability. Compare that to the Gulf Arabs who fomented this Sunni uprising beginning oh about 50 years ago as a way to divert attention from their own despotic regimes. They've raised generations of religious lunatics and look where that gotten us. If Iran wants the job of playing wack-a-mole with jihadis more power to them.

[Minskaya]

ISIL has seized the al-Qaim border crossing in far western Anbar province. The Syrian counterpart of Albukamal is currently held by the al-Nusra Front, but its forces are now pinched by ISIL forces to the east in Syria and to the west in Iraq. This is a critical supply route between Iraq and Syria.

There are ~200 Iraqi soldiers trapped in the Baiji oil refinery. Helicopter strafing runs have saved them temporarily, but the surrounded soldiers cannot be resupplied nor extracted.



Kurdish forces are engaged in heavy fighting with the ISIL at Jalula. They are attempting to buy time for government forces gathering at Baquba, the last major town remaining in government hands north of Baghdad. This is where Iraqi military forces and Shia volunteer militias will attempt to stem and reverse the ISIL push towards Baghdad.

Support for Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is dwindling. The US wants him gone (divisive) as does Iran (incompetent) and the Grand Ayatollah of Iraq Ali al-Sistani (divisive/ineffective).

[zraver]

Really hope some of our advisers are going to the Kurds as FACs...

[Sitting Bull]

Why would ISIS take Turkish diplomats hostage? Do they not share a common enemy in Assad?

[Bigfella]

So how do you explain Iraqi Shias getting involved in Syria? what is in for them that they should help Syria?

Stopping the spread of Sunni extremism & backing up a potentially friendly regime come to mind. I'm sore some do fight for religious reasons, but we aren't talking huge numbers.

Think you missed the gist of my post. It is not about building empire, nor am I talking about regular armies.

OK

If Iran manages to help Iraq defeat ISIS, then fundamentally it has managed to crush a Middle East Wide Sunni "uprising". And the forces who manage to do this were all trained by Iran.

Result battle hardened urban fighters, which Iran is able to deploy to help Shia allies, just like Hizbollah.

Again, you are assuming that training someone makes them yours. It doesn't. Ask America. Ask Pakistan. Ask Russia. Ask any government whose army has mutinied or turned on its government/officers. Sure, some of those fighters may be prepared to do Iran's bidding under certain circumstances. Others may use those skills for their own ends or even against Iran if circumstances changed.

Sure people fight based on identity. If you are targeting for being Shia, you will fight as Shia. If you targeted for being a Iraqi, you will fight as a Iraqi.

Right now it is a Sunni-Shia fight, over Arab Persian conflict.

Right now is the operative bit. The moment circumstances change so can people's behaviour. People allying with Iran to prevent Sunnis extending their power in Iraq this year won't necessarily go off to fight Iran's wars somewhere else next year.