Isareli Nuclear Weapons: Existence & Capability

[citanon]

Did you missed the part about Pakistan having access to Chinese nukes? And they still fucked up?

What we can establish here is that there are people who tried and succeeded without access to anything, and then there are other people who tried and failed with help (how much help, do we really know)?

Show me an Israeli non gun type nuke that works. India had one since 1974 and China since 1964.

We've already established that we don't know of an Israeli test.

So Israeli nuclear knowledge is superior to those of Russia and China?

Clearly not, as we can only estimating whether Israel has weapons, where as we know that both of the above tested many.

Where NK and Pakistani scientists got their training? Again, Pakistan got more help from China than Israel could ever hoped for to the point they had an entire arsenal (meaning they had more than 90% confidence). Guess what? The arsenal doesn't work. You can say what you want about the Israeli nuclear complex but the simple fact is that the Chinese are superior than the Israelis in nuclear weapons and no amount of help they gave the Pakistanis gave Pakistan a nuclear arsenal without testing.

And that's the disconnect. If anything, it shows that help and training does not equal doing it yourself, and Chinese weapons competence is far different than Pakistani competence. And so where does that leave us in our estimate of Israel? One the one hand, it does show that someone can fail, even with access to help. On the other hand, the very existence of the Chinese arsenal, shows that someone else can succeed, even without access to help.

The difference, I posit you, is the quality of the organization, and we know that Israel's research organizations, at least in other areas, are world class, bar none.

More like 5 or 6. Do you see just what happened?

I understand, but is that an argument that stops them from having 70 war heads? Or is that an argument that says that they should make 300 instead?

Better a million dead than billions dead. We've nearly gone to war twice over the NPT and war was threatened twice more because of the NPT. I cannot and will not believe the US or Russia willingly violate the very treaty that they were willing to goto nuclear war for. It makes a lie to everything I believe in about us. That we give our word. That we keep our word, however, many loop holes we built into the thing.

Sir, we've nearly gone to war to stop someone from getting weapons. We have not ever contemplated, as far as I know, going to war against someone who is trying to make more secure or understand weapons that another country has already developed. Both might be violations, but the nature of the violation would be different, and it would be insane not to recognize it.

Also, please clarify your point about the NPT violation. Is explicit exchange of design data with Israel the explicit violation? Would sharing of PALs be a violation? Furthermore, could a quid pro quo transaction be conducted in a manner that does not technically violate the NPT? One would think, for example, that Israel can share designs with US intelligence without coordinating with the US. Surely, for example, US intelligence has tried to penetrate Israel's nuclear program. To share data, Israel only has to allow those efforts to succeed. No request of any kind needs to be made. No coordination or cooperation is necessary. No explicit decision would even need to be made on the part of the US. Only Israel would need to make that decision. Would that still violate NPT?

[citanon]

Did you missed the part about Pakistan having access to Chinese nukes? And they still fucked up?

Furthermore, your arguments carry (or at least lean towards) the implicit assumption that it was the design of the Pakistani nukes that failed. In truth we don't know how those tests actually failed. It could be failures in the precision timing circuitry, as has happened in the past with at least one US test, or in the manufacturing tolerances of the warhead assembly. Both aspects are challenging, but we know that Israel has the requisite production capabilities due to their work on other weapons systems and other high technology content devices.

There is the second assumption that Israel's possession of weaponized thermonuclear warheads automatically means a more advanced state of development than India, but we know that India has developed thermonuclear weapons with limited success based on very limited testing. The Pokhran-II series of tests in 1998 included Shakti-1, a thermonuclear device with an official yield of 45 kT with a size feasible for use as an air dropped weapon. Granted this is lower than the 200 kT designed yield but never the less adequate to cause mass devestation across urban areas in conjunction with multiple strikes. Prior to this India had only conducted a single nuclear test in 1974 (Smiling Buddha - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) with a yield of 8 kT. We can assume that Shakti-1 was a device engineered during the interim period, with the test date heavily influenced by political factors, which had interfered with Indian determination to develop nuclear weapons ever since the start of the program in the 1960s (vis a vi a presumptive start date circa 1949 and continuous national commitment ever since for Israel's program). Given this record, the scenario I put forth for Israeli progress does not seem so much more surprisingly ingenious than the Indian effort.

Shakti-1


On that point, there's also an assumption that we know the extent of Israeli nuclear testing, yet, the science of seismic monitoring was not fully developed until the mid 1970s, and the the full set of international seismic monitoring stations were not constructed until the 1990s (Underground nuclear testing - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia). However, Dimona was completed before 1964.

[JAD_333]

Back to the submarine theory. In a way, water borne platforms make sense for Israel. But sensible doesn't necessarily translate into doable. Could this article be accurate?

Israel Has Deployed Nuclear Weapons On Its New German Built Submarines - Business Insider

On the political front, I came across an interesting analysis that in effect says Israel's desire to attack Iran now is a tacit admission that it will not be able to deter an attack by a nuclear-armed Iran. The article is worth a read. Here is a key paragraph.

Netanyahu's assertions broadcast a lack of trust in Israel's ability to deter the Iranians because according to his view, the moment they have the bomb in their hands, they will launch it at Israel. In this way, Netanyahu has abruptly sawed off the branch on which Israel's strategic deterrent policy was resting for the past few decades.

Fear is not a deterrent, Bibi - Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper

[JAD_333]

Would that still violate NPT?

Under the NPT, the US can't, for example, share PAL technology, or so I have read. Instead the US has developed a way to do it negatively. Like the kid's game of "warm-cold' in searching for something hidden, the recipient nation's scientists would try to develop a PAL and then show US scientists what they had, and the latter would then say "cold" or "warm" until finally a workable PAL was developed.

[citanon]

Back to the submarine theory. In a way, water borne platforms make sense for Israel. But sensible doesn't necessarily translate into doable. Could this article be accurate?

Israel Has Deployed Nuclear Weapons On Its New German Built Submarines - Business Insider

It would help to be able to read the actual Der Spiegel article.

[JAD_333]

It would help to be able to read the actual Der Spiegel article.

Israel Deploys Nuclear Weapons on German Submarines - SPIEGEL ONLINE

[citanon]

Israel Deploys Nuclear Weapons on German Submarines - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Ok, so I think that was the teaser article for the following artice:

Israel Deploys Nuclear Weapons on German-Built Submarines - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Haven't read through it. Looks very interesting.

[JAD_333]

Citanon, we have to stop meeting like this.:)

[citanon]

Citanon, we have to stop meeting like this.:)

Ha!

[Officer of Engineers]

Long reply typed. Firefox frozed. Ready to hit the monitor. Will try again in the morning. Need to go flashlight and count deer to calm down.

[Tronic]

Long reply typed. Firefox frozed. Ready to hit the monitor. Will try again in the morning. Need to go flashlight and count deer to calm down.

Don't let the Sasquatch count you.

[Officer of Engineers]

Don't let the Sasquatch count you.

Tankie is on the other side of the planet.

[Tronic]

Tankie is on the other side of the planet.

Is that why the Loch Ness refuses to surface?

[Doktor]

Is that why the Loch Ness refuses to surface?

Nope. This is why some in Scotland seek independence.
(Couldn't resist).

[Minskaya]

The difference, I posit you, is the quality of the organization, and we know that Israel's research organizations, at least in other areas, are world class, bar none.

Precisely. Israel is second only to the US on the NASDAQ (technology) exchange. Her contributions to science, technology, and medicine are second to none. Israel is among the ten nations that have placed satellites in earth orbit using their own indigenous launch platforms and technology. The recently birthed field of quantum-levitation is an Israeli innovation. Even on a more granular scale, people around the globe use Israeli technology everyday such as the ZoneAlarm firewall software.

The Patriot and Arrow anti-missile systems both share US/Israeli technology. US and Israeli military drones are miles above everyone else (pun intended). Fighter jets of the USAF and numerous NATO countries use the Israeli Lightening Pod navigation and targeting system. ECM? Israeli jets destroyed a secret Syrian nuclear facility ringed with sophisticated Russian anti-air systems. Not only did the IAF operate undetected, the Israeli pilots also left a calling card of sonic booms over the home of Bashar Assad in Aleppo on the way home.

Nuclear physics? Since its inception in the 30's, no one understands this field better than Jewish scientists. How anyone can believe that a nation jam-packed with physicists who thoroughly understand the nuclear fuel-cycle, a nation that has placed satellites in orbit and is a world leader in numerous technology sectors, is somehow too stupid/backward to fabricate a viable nuclear weapon is totally inexplicable to me.

Occam's Razor - Entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily