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This does seem like a pretext for artillery preparation before you move troops in if you consider old style war movements.
I am waiting for Turkey to go in full force and enjoy the outcome. (I am not doubting it will succeed, had this discussion before.) The blowback will not be pretty is what I am inferring at. Syria Comment
My feeling is that we get an event that is completely unrelated to the Syria-Turkey border that flips the dynamics completely. Ergo either Iran or Iraq assert something that would be completely out of the blue and simply fracture regional dynamics into a complete cluster#@ck. Imagine Iraq claiming Hasaka and Syria agreeing with Iran supporting the transition or something completely insane along a different line. Then the fun truly starts.
All in time for an election in a month!
Assad and his upper staff cannot be stupid enough to piss off Turkey can they?
I don't think photo ops and shaking hands changes the situation on the ground within the body polity. Ergo a larger part if not a majority of Kurds would support their kin in Syria, without relevance as to the background of the intervention. Second it would very likely be seen as an opportunity by the more radical elements to test aspects within Turkey that they would expect to be weaker in relation to their position. This may not even be a border issue but a logistic ability issue for them to plan something wider in the future.
Also notice I said if there is an intervention. Although every day it seems more and more likely. It kind of feels that behind the scenes there is a lot of bargaining going on, and the bargaining is completely out of our view.
Sometimes its' very fun to figure how badly things can deteriorate, splinter, collapse, and so on.
P.S. yes I think integration will work in Turkey the Russian scenario would be well suited divide and conquer and integrate. The problem is that in many ways there were transgressions on those deemed 'integrated' with the politician raids and whatnot. In Russian the clans fought each other and the center picked winners, in Turkey the center simply switched from punishing one dissent to another. Lots of opportunities to remedy the situation still available.
"...I don't think photo ops and shaking hands changes the situation on the ground within the body polity..."
Photo ops? If you believe that's the extent of KRG consultation with the Turkish gov't then you'd be sadly, sadly mistaken. History since 2008 suggests otherwise. Further, there isn't a KRG citizen with an ounce of brains and a measure of pragmatism that hasn't calculated any existence within Kurdish borders is at the behest and concurrence of Turkey.
"This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs
"...I don't think photo ops and shaking hands changes the situation on the ground within the body polity..."
Photo ops? If you believe that's the extent of KRG consultation with the Turkish gov't then you'd be sadly, sadly mistaken. History since 2008 suggests otherwise. Further, there isn't a KRG citizen with an ounce of brains and a measure of pragmatism that hasn't calculated any existence within Kurdish borders is at the behest and concurrence of Turkey.
Top down there is cooperation. Bottom up there is assertion and future direction that is beyond the top down control. Iraqi Kurdistan and its' 3 factions exist at the behest of the body polity, once they become too greedy or too distracted from the wishes and objectives of the bottom they will be re-directed.
1/3rd or Pkk+ has support from the populous (at least some of it otherwise it wouldn't exist). Divide and conquer works but if you push it too far you risk going into a guerrilla warfare scenario where everyone would be at the advantage of funding your opponents. That is what happened in Soviet/Afghan scenario. It wasn't that the Soviets couldn't enforce things with brute force, it was that the undercurrents remained unpacified even with a huge military presence AND the guerrilla campaign smoldered on.
You are confusing political expedience and reality vs the drivers and objectives of the future. Both Turkey and Iraqi Kurds realize that sooner or later the Kurds will have to go independent in Iraq all that is in question is the overlay when that happens. When, how, and in what manner it happens is the question in my view, not if. Asserting dominance works if you are unopposed and nobody in the region wants to prop up interests contrary to yours, that simply won't happen in that case.
Furthermore you are discounting the internal political ramifications and the destruction of the officer core through "silent purges", I mentioned this before that slowly but surely the political aspect is beginning to dominate in Turkey to change up the military and put in place people which are more loyal than able. Problems arise when that happens. During the Chechen war Russia had 2 incompetent generals out of 3. Rohlin was competent others were not so much. If you look back you will notice even objectives in that war in the beginning were not about strategy but politics and policy. Ergo we have to do this to look good even though militarily it will not work and get a lot of soldiers killed. Internally you create an insane amount of pressure since conscripts have families...
ANKARA - Hürriyet Daily News
Turkish MPs approve a motion permitting cross-border raids on Syria during a closed-door session after Syrian shells kill five in Turkey and its response
Turkey’s Parliament yesterday passed a government motion for a one-year mandate authorizing the military to use ground troops for cross-border military operations into Syria, after heated debates over the content of the motion and due to objections raised by the opposition to voting on such a significant motion in a closed-door session.
There were 449 deputies present in Parliament, and 320 voted in favor of the motion.
“This should not be interpreted as declaration of war, it is designed as a precaution,” Canikli said, adding that Turkey perceives the mortar fire that struck the border town of Akçakale on Oct.3 as having been “deliberate.”
“The negative impact of the ongoing crisis in Syria on our national security, as well as on regional stability and security, is increasingly being seen,” the motion read. “As part of the military operations being conducted by the Syrian Arab Republic Armed Forces, starting from Sept. 20, aggressive actions have been directed against our country’s territories as well. These actions have continued despite our repeated warnings and diplomatic initiatives. The aggressive actions directed against the territory of our country are on the threshold of an armed attack.”
“A naive, romantic motto like ‘no to war’ will not solve the problem. A great effort continues for mobilizing international community for providing the peace. The ones who try to test Turkey’s patience will get the necessary answers, like happened in the past. But nobody should try to manipulate the situation. We do not have any problem with Syrian nation,” said Egemen Bağış, European Union Minister.
October/05/2012
I find it ironic that the name of the town is Aksakal. Wisdom alas is lacking.
Well here we go lets see what happens. :whome:
By the way technically the Turkish Army is larger than the Russian army (branch wise) 402k to 360k... if you only compare the ground forces. (granted if you add in marines/paratroops its similar if you use wikis numbers).
Akça can be translated as "white" or "bright" Kale can be translated as "castle" or "fortress"
Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none; be able for thine enemy rather in power than use; and keep thy friend under thine own life's key; be checked for silence, but never taxed for speech.
Akça can be translated as "white" or "bright" Kale can be translated as "castle" or "fortress"
Akcha or Aksa? Cause Aksa I presume is elder. Because in the Caucasus they always say that local aksakals(elders) were consulted to promote peaceful resolutions etc...
anyways. The c with the squiggle beneath I assume is an s. Perhaps I'm wrong.
Akcha or Aksa? Cause Aksa I presume is elder. Because in the Caucasus they always say that local aksakals(elders) were consulted to promote peaceful resolutions etc...
anyways. The c with the squiggle beneath I assume is an s. Perhaps I'm wrong.
it IS "Akça". means "white-ish", "white-like" or "bright"
"Ak" directly means "white", "sakal" means "beard". "Aksakal" means "white beard" which refers to "old man"
the towns name is most probably coming from its position. it is on the way of conquests of many civilisations including Hittites, Assyrians and even Alexander the Great.
Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none; be able for thine enemy rather in power than use; and keep thy friend under thine own life's key; be checked for silence, but never taxed for speech.
"Top down there is cooperation. Bottom up there is assertion and future direction that is beyond the top down control..."
Wrong. There is give and take embedded within any consent to govern.
"...Iraqi Kurdistan and its' 3 factions exist at the behest of the body polity, once they become too greedy or too distracted from the wishes and objectives of the bottom they will be re-directed..."
Say something unsurprising.
"...1/3rd or Pkk+ has support from the populous (at least some of it otherwise it wouldn't exist)..."
You waffle. First you contend the PKK has fully one-third of the Iraqi Kurd constituency. Then "...some...".
You don't really know.
"...Divide and conquer works but if you push it too far you risk going into a guerrilla warfare scenario where everyone would be at the advantage of funding your opponents. That is what happened in Soviet/Afghan scenario. It wasn't that the Soviets couldn't enforce things with brute force, it was that the undercurrents remained unpacified even with a huge military presence AND the guerrilla campaign smoldered on..."
Save the grossly over-generalized and non-specific lecture. You haven't yet established any credibility to pontificate.
"...You are confusing political expedience and reality vs the drivers and objectives of the future...Furthermore you are discounting the internal political ramifications and the destruction of the officer core..."
All that from my reply? I really think not.
"...my post on militaryTurkey, Kurds, and the Re-Orientation of Politics
Military effectiveness and efficiency slowly suppressed to assert political dominance."
I think you're in love with yourself.
"This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs
"...1/3rd or Pkk+ has support from the populous (at least some of it otherwise it wouldn't exist)..."
You waffle. First you contend the PKK has fully one-third of the Iraqi Kurd constituency. Then "...some...".
You don't really know.
Save the grossly over-generalized and non-specific lecture. You haven't yet established any credibility to pontificate.
"...my post on militaryTurkey, Kurds, and the Re-Orientation of Politics
Military effectiveness and efficiency slowly suppressed to assert political dominance."
I think you're in love with yourself.
But I like to pontificate thats why I come here its fun.
I'm beginning to quote myself, 'progress'...:Dancing-Banana:
Btw the situation on the ground is telling in a way. If the PKK took over dominance in Hasaka and couldn't be dislodged by more pronounced leadership of Talibani and other factions it does seem likely that they had some muscle outside to do so. Now it might be the smallest faction but it could still be a 1/3rd. We really have no idea. You also discount that support is never homogenous from one specific area I am sure they get some monetary donations and support from not just where they dominate at but elsewhere in Iraqi Kurdistan otherwise they simply wouldn't have survived.
I do site the Landis blog its' pretty good for info granted a lot of it is biased but still.
Turkish forces have been engaged in combat operations against the PKK terrorist group in southeast Turkey and northern Iraq on-and-off for years – in the latter case at times conducting cross-border incursions. But a defined objective in Syria would be a harder ask. Syrian rebel forces control swathes of the country’s north. They are unlikely to be the target of any Turkish action, and crossing the border without defined regime military targets could be seen by Ankara as too open-ended a mission. Another option that has been debated is the establishment of safe zones. If safe areas in Syria under outside protection were created, these would in practical terms greatly increase the government’s difficulties. If the regime ignored them, they could become de facto rebel base areas, thus improving the rebels’ military capability. If the regime attacked them, they not only would run the risk of combat with whomever was protecting the areas – with resulting regime casualties and losses that they can ill afford – but it would also be faced with the problem of concentrating sufficient ground forces to evict the rebels.
Whats the difference between mechanized and motorized infantry? mechanized has tankets and infantry fighting vehicle and motorized is just trucked lighter?
So fellas, if Syria goes and Iran sinks further, will Turkey get back its Ottoman groove? :)
me thinks that is also wanted by US (especially after the neutralisation of TAF's influence over the government)
Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none; be able for thine enemy rather in power than use; and keep thy friend under thine own life's key; be checked for silence, but never taxed for speech.
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