Syrian Civil War Developments

[Quotar]

In all probability, Turkey is the assisting conduit acting on behalf of the US/Saudi axis.

But who constitute the recon teams? This seems to require more than SIGINT, to my uneducated mind, or at least needs in-country SIGINT. What are Israeli capabilities inside Syria? For sure, I read that the US was supplying comm gear.

FM 42, or wwhatever, talks of the need for intel.

With sanctions exerting an ever increasing bite, Iran is no longer in a position to financially prop up the Assad regime. That said, I have little doubt that IRG units (Iranian/Lebanese) are busy in Syria.

Reports are that the Lebanese Hezbollah resources are not active, inside Lebanon or outside, either, ...yet. The Lebanese Alewites are not Hezbollah and Tripoli activities are not Shia relayed.

[Quotar]

FM 42, or wwhatever, talks of the need for intel.

FM 3-24 on the need for intel on both sides, unless one side is just lobbing arty shells downrange...with a continuous supply line.

[JAD_333]

The British and Americans are sending aid too, all non-lethal so far. This opens up channels that might later be used to provide lethal aid.


French direct aid a dubious break for Syria rebels - CBS News

PARIS — France's decision to send direct aid to Syria's opposition represents a break for the rebels after months of Western hesitation over fears that costly equipment intended for Syria's opposition could get lost or fall into the wrong hands. But even the French action, rebels and activists say, amounts to so little that it's all but useless.

France, Syria's one-time colonial ruler, began sending the aid without intermediaries last week to three regions of Syria where the regime of President Bashar Assad has lost control, in the first such move by a Western power, a diplomat said Wednesday. But it remains limited, primarily repairing bakeries, water systems and schools. And while apparently more than the indirect assistance extended by other Western countries, it's still far from the magnitude needed to make a difference, Syrian opposition activists said.

[tankie]

Well done the French , its a start .

[Firestorm]

Well done the French , its a start .

Are you sure it is a good idea?

Support Syrian rebels so we can topple Israel: Al Qaeda leader

Syria Islamists: 'next stop Israel'

As Bashar al-Assad fights for his survival, a new threat to Israel is crystallising across its northern borders.

What began in Syria as a limited but genuine people's uprising against a dictatorship has become contaminated with Saudi-funded foreign mujahideen who are driven, among other things, by an intense hostility toward non-Muslims - and an implacable hatred of Jews and Israel.

[Parihaka]

What began in Syria as a limited but genuine people's uprising against a dictatorship has become contaminated with Saudi-funded foreign mujahideen who are driven, among other things, by an intense hostility toward non-Muslims - and an implacable hatred of Jews and Israel.

Status quo.

[citanon]

Are you sure it is a good idea?

Support Syrian rebels so we can topple Israel: Al Qaeda leader

Syria Islamists: 'next stop Israel'

That's why you have to support them. If the right people are not supporting them they will turn to the wrong people next (or now, as things are).

[Bigfella]

Are you sure it is a good idea?

Support Syrian rebels so we can topple Israel: Al Qaeda leader

Syria Islamists: 'next stop Israel'

My understanding is that the 'contamination' constitutes about 5% of fighters. Seems a pretty poor basis on which to write this off. I'm trying to imagine WW2 era headlines screaming about the presence of communists in anti-German & anti-japanese resistance movements. There are also secular or non-fundamentalist muslims who have gone to Syria to fight the government, but I'm not expecting any screaming headlines about them. If western powers decide to do nothing they leave it to others to provide arms & money. Would you rather take a chance that Western backing might produce elements in a future Syrian government & nation well disposed to them (as has happened in Israel) or increasingly turn over the revolution to backers in the Gulf? it isn't like Western powers actually have to fund Islamists (as was done in Afghanistan). There are other options.

[NUS]

My understanding is that the 'contamination' constitutes about 5% of fighters.

On what is your understanding based on? Mass media reports?

it isn't like Western powers actually have to fund Islamists (as was done in Afghanistan). There are other options.

Who are they? Do you know their goals, the ideas they are fighting for?

[Bigfella]

On what is your understanding based on? Mass media reports?

No, I walked there myself & counted.

Who are they? Do you know their goals, the ideas they are fighting for?

I don't have my list of names on me, but they all seemed rather keen to remove the Assad regime.

I'm sure you can use a search engine just like the rest of us.

[NUS]

No, I walked there myself & counted.



I don't have my list of names on me, but they all seemed rather keen to remove the Assad regime.

I'm sure you can use a search engine just like the rest of us.

In other words you have no idea what is going on in Syria.
And trust me, search engine results are very different on different languages.

[J`ve]

Turkey strikes targets in Syria in retaliation for shelling deaths - CNN.com

[cyppok]

Turkey strikes targets in Syria in retaliation for shelling deaths - CNN.com

This does seem like a pretext for artillery preparation before you move troops in if you consider old style war movements.

I am waiting for Turkey to go in full force and enjoy the outcome. (I am not doubting it will succeed, had this discussion before.) The blowback will not be pretty is what I am inferring at.
Syria Comment

“You must not be with Assad, you must not be with the opposition, you must be the third power in Syria,” he quotes Mr Ocalan as saying. “You must prepare 15,000 soldiers to protect the Kurdish areas. If you don’t take this strategy you will be crushed . . .  Every young Kurd must prepare themselves to join up and protect their motherland.”…

http://news.yahoo.com/iraq-tells-tur...212500616.html

Iraq tells Turkey to stop pursuing Kurdish rebels over border
Reuters – Tue, Oct 2, 2012

My feeling is that we get an event that is completely unrelated to the Syria-Turkey border that flips the dynamics completely. Ergo either Iran or Iraq assert something that would be completely out of the blue and simply fracture regional dynamics into a complete cluster#@ck. Imagine Iraq claiming Hasaka and Syria agreeing with Iran supporting the transition or something completely insane along a different line. Then the fun truly starts.

[kato]

This does seem like a pretext for artillery preparation before you move troops in if you consider old style war movements.

SPON in Germany reports Turkey is massing mechanized forces and armor along the border.

[Big K]

Cyppok,

AKP and Iraqi Kurds: the participation of Massoud Barzani in the AKP general congress <br><i>by</i> <b>Aziz Barzani*</b>

although i am opposing any Turkish intervention to Syria i dont think that Kurds in Iraq will cause any trouble in this matter.

it seems that AKP & Barzani are in good mood.