2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Ironduke]

Does anybody have thoughts on the France-Moldova defense pact? It falls well short of being an alliance, but will it have any meaningful impact?

[Amled]

Russian military plane crashes on takeoff

A Russian military transport plane with 15 people on board crashed on Tuesday while taking off from an air base in western Russia, the Defence Ministry said.

It said the Il-76 aircraft with eight crew and seven passengers crashed in the Ivanovo region. It didn’t say whether there were any survivors.

Stanislav Voskresensky, the governor of Ivanovo, offered condolences to the victims’ families. He said there was no damage on the ground.

The Defence Ministry said in a statement that an engine fire during takeoff was the likely cause of the crash. It said a team of investigators flew to Ivanovo to conduct a probe.

Russian media broadcast a video showing the aircraft heading down with at least one of its engines ablaze.

The four-engine Il-76 is a heavy-lift transport plane that has been in service since the 1970s with the Soviet and then Russian air force.

Tuesday’s crash came on a day when the Defence Ministry reported dozens of attacks on Russia by Ukrainian drones. In the past, Ukrainian drones hit some military air bases deep inside Russia.


_______

Occam's Razor says "Poor maintenance/lack of spares"

But I'd like to think deliberate sabotage or damage from kinetic action.

One should ever rule out the possibility that “gremlins” could be in play!!!

[Albany Rifles]

Russian military plane crashes on takeoff

A Russian military transport plane with 15 people on board crashed on Tuesday while taking off from an air base in western Russia, the Defence Ministry said.

It said the Il-76 aircraft with eight crew and seven passengers crashed in the Ivanovo region. It didn’t say whether there were any survivors.

Stanislav Voskresensky, the governor of Ivanovo, offered condolences to the victims’ families. He said there was no damage on the ground.

The Defence Ministry said in a statement that an engine fire during takeoff was the likely cause of the crash. It said a team of investigators flew to Ivanovo to conduct a probe.

Russian media broadcast a video showing the aircraft heading down with at least one of its engines ablaze.

The four-engine Il-76 is a heavy-lift transport plane that has been in service since the 1970s with the Soviet and then Russian air force.

Tuesday’s crash came on a day when the Defence Ministry reported dozens of attacks on Russia by Ukrainian drones. In the past, Ukrainian drones hit some military air bases deep inside Russia.


_______

Occam's Razor says "Poor maintenance/lack of spares"

But I'd like to think deliberate sabotage or damage from kinetic action.

There is a reason we retired all of our C-141s by 2006!

[Albany Rifles]

I did not have this on my 12 MAR 24 dance card!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68541911

Ukraine-based Russian armed groups claim raids into Russia

6 hours ago
By Jaroslav Lukiv,BBC News




The Freedom of Russia Legion said Russia must be "freed from Putin's dictatorship"Three Ukraine-based Russian paramilitary groups say they have crossed into Russia and are now fighting government troops there.


The Freedom of Russia Legion (FRL) and Siberian Battalion (SB) posted videos purportedly showing their fighters in Russia's Belgorod and Kursk regions.
The FRL and an exiled Russian politician claimed two villages were now in control of "liberation forces".
Russia's defence ministry said the breakthrough attempts were thwarted.
Ukraine's military denied any involvement in Tuesday's cross-border raids. Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for the country's military intelligence, said the paramilitary groups were "independent organisations" of Russian nationals, and therefore operating "at home".
In a separate development, Russia said Ukraine had launched 25 drones on targets across Russia, but the attack was thwarted.
However, videos have emerged which appear to show several Russian oil facilities on fire.
In the Ivanovo region, just east of Moscow, an Il-76 military-transport plane with eight crew and seven passengers crashed shortly after take-off, Russia's defence ministry was quoted as saying by Russian state-run news agencies.
The ministry said an engine fire caused the crash. It gave no details of survivors.
Videos have emerged purportedly showing the plane on fire circling in the sky, and later plumes of black smoke from the crash site.
A full-scale invasion of Ukraine launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin is now in its third year, with no signs that the biggest war in Europe since World War Two could end soon.

On Tuesday, the FRL posted what it said was a video from the Russian-Ukrainian border.
"Like all our fellow citizens, in the Legion we dream of a Russia freed from Putin's dictatorship. But we don't just dream: we make every effort to make these dreams come true. We will take our land away from the regime, centimetre by centimetre," an armed FRL soldier in the footage is heard saying.
Meanwhile, the SB said "fierce fighting is going on the Russian Federation territory", publishing a clip purportedly showing its fighters engaging with Russian government forces.
It also condemned Russian presidential elections on 15-17 March, in which Mr Putin is widely expected to be declared the winner.
"Ballots and polling stations in this case are fiction. You can really change your life for the better only with weapons in your hands," the SB said.
Another Ukraine-based Russian group, the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), also published footage of what it said were its fighters engaging with Russian government troops.
"The army of the Kremlin regime lays down its weapons without even starting the battle," it said.
The videos have not been independently verified.
The border village of Tetkino in the Kursk region appeared to be one of the targets in Tuesday's raids, with the FRL claiming that "liberating forces" now had full control over the settlement.
The BBC has verified the authenticity of FRL footage depicting a strike on an armoured personnel carrier in Tetkino.
Strike on military vehicle in Tetkino, Kursk
Footage from Ukraine-based Russian paramilitary unit Freedom of Russia Legion claimed to show strike on Russian Armoured Personnel Carrier in the village of Tetkino, Kursk region, Russia.
Telegram

Superficial edits were made to this content to improve technical quality, in line with editorial guidelines.
The layout of roads, buildings and trees is consistent with publicly-available satellite imagery at this location. Green and blue roofs also evident on satellite imagery.
Onscreen caption at 7 seconds reads "enemy armoured personnel vehicle" in Russian
Reverse image searches on Google and Yandex search engines of three keyframes each returned no results - suggesting video has not been cached and is therefore a recent upload.
Shadow placement suggests footage was filmed early morning.
Weather conditions match those reported for this location on morning of 12/03/2024


lesssamemoreSkipKursk Mayor Igor Kutsak ordered all schools in the regional capital to be put on remote learning from 13 to 15 March "in connection with recent events".
He also warned that the "missile alert" regime was still in place in the city, which has a population of more than 400,000.
Earlier on Tuesday, Ukraine-based Russian opposition politician Illya Ponomarev claimed that the border village of Lozovaya Rudka, Belgorod region, was "under full control of liberating forces".

In a statement later on Tuesday, the Russian defence ministry said its forces together with border guards and FSB security service units "thwarted an attempt by the Kyiv regime to make a breakthrough" into Russia.
It said enemy fighters - backed by tanks and armoured personnel carriers - had tried to invade Russia "simultaneously in three directions in the areas of the settlements of Odnorobovka, Nekhoteevka and Spodaryushino, Belgorod region".
It added that another four attacks had targeted Tetkino, but were "repulsed".
The Ukraine-based Russian armed groups have made several cross-border raids since the full-invasion of Ukraine began.
Last May, Russia's military said a similar attack in the Belgorod region was rebuffedand armed insurgents defeated.

[TopHatter]

Russian military plane crashes on takeoff

A Russian military transport plane with 15 people on board crashed on Tuesday while taking off from an air base in western Russia, the Defence Ministry said.

It said the Il-76 aircraft with eight crew and seven passengers crashed in the Ivanovo region. It didn’t say whether there were any survivors.

Stanislav Voskresensky, the governor of Ivanovo, offered condolences to the victims’ families. He said there was no damage on the ground.

The Defence Ministry said in a statement that an engine fire during takeoff was the likely cause of the crash. It said a team of investigators flew to Ivanovo to conduct a probe.

Russian media broadcast a video showing the aircraft heading down with at least one of its engines ablaze.

The four-engine Il-76 is a heavy-lift transport plane that has been in service since the 1970s with the Soviet and then Russian air force.

Tuesday’s crash came on a day when the Defence Ministry reported dozens of attacks on Russia by Ukrainian drones. In the past, Ukrainian drones hit some military air bases deep inside Russia.


_______

Occam's Razor says "Poor maintenance/lack of spares"

But I'd like to think deliberate sabotage or damage from kinetic action.

[Ironduke]

This is the exact text from Article 6. Turkey is mentioned in addition to Europe.

On another subject, Europe isn't really a geological continent, it's more a culturally defined thing. I'm sure if the Byzantine state had managed to survive to the modern day with the territories it had 850 years ago, cartographers would be drawing the boundaries of Europe to the Syria/Iraq border and the Black Sea would be considered an internal European body of water.

Article 6 ¹

For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:

• on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France ², on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
• on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.

[Albany Rifles]

Ankara is in Asia, not Europe. Almost all of Turkish territory is in Asia Minor, so if the treaty considers outside of scope any Turkish territory in Asia, that's the whole country outside of Istanbul.

That is not how it has been interpreted. It was why my happy ass was in Turkey twice in the late 1980s on joint NATO planning meetings.

[rj1]

Ankara is covered under b).

Ankara is in Asia, not Europe. Almost all of Turkish territory is in Asia Minor, so if the treaty considers outside of scope any Turkish territory in Asia, that's the whole country outside of Istanbul.

[Ironduke]

It looks like the Ukrainians hit the hangar in which the repairs/maintenance take place. Inconclusive, but before and after photos from March 8th and 9th show two holes in the roof of the hangar where it's claimed there was an A-50 undergoing maintenance.

Third photo shows what the hangar/entrance look like (bottom right side of building from satellite photo). Fourth and fifth photos are of inside the hangar to give an idea of size/scale.

[Monash]

Multiple drones were used. I wonder if the Uki's considered hitting a vital part of the plant itself? Probably not enough of a warhead to be worth it but if they ever did (or do) and that's the only location where they can do maintenance and upgrades on A-50s? Still good news though.

[TopHatter]

Unconfirmed reports of another A-50 destroyed, this time on the ground at the Taganrog Aviation Plant in the Rostov Oblast. Apparently repair work and maintenance on Il-76 variant aircraft is also done at this plant, including the A-50.

Dayum...

I wonder what the Russian phrase for "endangered species" is. Oh right, "исчезающие виды"

[Ironduke]

Unconfirmed reports of another A-50 destroyed, this time on the ground at the Taganrog Aviation Plant in the Rostov Oblast. Apparently repair work and maintenance on Il-76 variant aircraft is also done at this plant, including the A-50.

First image appeared in a Forbes article in summer 2023. Second image is claimed to be from 29 Feb 2024. Both are probably from Maxar. No more recent images are readily available.

Link below in which there are claims of a drone attack on this aviation plant.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/29241

Video taken by Russian civilians which is claimed to be drone attacks against targets in Taganrog.

[Ironduke]

Thanks! I am wondering if that was originally to exclude the French and British possessions in the South Atlantic (Falklands) and Pacific (French Polynesia)?

Kind of a time capsule impact.

I think with regards to Article 6, it has to be looked at in whole rather than trying to divine specific intent from its various clauses. I don't think the authors had specific islands in mind when writing the clause regarding islands north of the Tropic of Cancer. The intent, I believe, was just to limit the territorial scope and focus of the alliance to Europe, Turkey the North Atlantic, US/Canada vis-a-vis the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact.

As a whole, Article 6 basically just prevented the alliance from getting dragged into various post-colonial conflicts, in an era in which the European overseas empires were still mostly intact. I think in 1949 it was just the Indian subcontinent, Egypt and a few Middle Eastern states that had gained independence, otherwise the British and French Empires still had their pre-WWII possessions, as did the Dutch until later that year. Portugal was still in Macao and Goa. There were four, perhaps five independent countries in Africa. Hawaii was just an overseas territory then, not an integral part of the United States.

[kato]

Thanks! I am wondering if that was originally to exclude the French and British possessions in the South Atlantic (Falklands) and Pacific (French Polynesia)?
Kind of a time capsule impact.

It also conveniently sidestepped possible issues for the USA like Guantanamo Bay or Puerto Rico, both of which are just south of the Tropic of Cancer.

[Albany Rifles]

Don't forget that when they joined NATO there were a LOT more 'possessions' than those. In the case of France many of those, including Algeria, some Carribbean islands and Guiana were/are part of metropolitan France. One of my favourite trivia questions is: 'which nation does France have its longest land border with?' - Brazil. :) There were probably additional potential complications with other nations (Portugal?, Holland?) that encouraged strict geographic limits.

Jeebuz...you just had me channeling back to Mister Pasquale & 6th grade Social Studies in 1969 with that post, Pete!!