Chances of a contemporary Hapsburg like ultimatum in Asia ?

[astralis]

Do you see a role in China continuing to develop its blue water capability to carry the load protecting sea lanes etc, given your role in encouraging China to become a better international citizen?

yes, the USN has actively proposed and conducted drills/exercises with the Chinese in anti-piracy operations. hell, we're even willing to support them with their aircraft carrier program if they ask for it...:)

[Parihaka]

Okay. So in one aspect you're happy with and wish to encourage China's military expansion; you don't see it that expansion as a threat in the short to medium term; you don't see parity on either economic or military measures between China and the USA in the short to medium term; yet on the other you're retasking a full 60% of your naval capabilities worldwide specifically to the Asia/Pacific region where the only credible threat is China's military expansion. Can you understand why China might regard that buildup as a threat, as indeed do I?

[astralis]

pari,

So in one aspect you're happy with and wish to encourage China's military expansion;

yes, certain aspects.

yet on the other you're retasking a full 60% of your naval capabilities worldwide specifically to the Asia/Pacific region where the only credible threat is China's military expansion

among other things. as i said before, there's other demands in the Pacific region outside of China.

Can you understand why China might regard that buildup as a threat, as indeed do I?

oh, certainly. but we're quite open about it, and transparent-- something which the PLA refuses to reciprocate. note that china's military budget has been growing faster than its economy for approximately a decade and a half now, far predating the current build-up. can YOU understand why the US and others might regard that buildup as a threat?

especially when said PLA openly has this for an OpFor? (thanks, Andy.)

[Doktor]

Asty,

Are you totally positive USA will have 480 mn population if the financial situation continues to stale?

OTOH, I can see China aging which will stop their growth and start eating her from within.

But, if her GDP comes to $30k per capita and the regime opens China for Chinese diaspora, demography would fix, no?

I share Pari's curiosity on why so many US assets are moving there.

[Double Edge]

Okay. So in one aspect you're happy with and wish to encourage China's military expansion; you don't see it that expansion as a threat in the short to medium term; you don't see parity on either economic or military measures between China and the USA in the short to medium term; yet on the other you're retasking a full 60% of your naval capabilities worldwide specifically to the Asia/Pacific region where the only credible threat is China's military expansion. Can you understand why China might regard that buildup as a threat, as indeed do I?

Agree, if the Chinese perceive an impossible situation vis-a-vis themselves and the US conventionally then China starts to up its nukes production which has a knock on effect on neighbours.

The transparency that astralis speaks about is a delicate balancing act.

[Doktor]

So another arms race will knock out China, too?

[astralis]

doktor,

Are you totally positive USA will have 480 mn population if the financial situation continues to stale?

population predictions are notoriously fickle, as are any predictions out to 2100.

but there's an established long-term demographics trend, established across previous booms and recessions, where the US has the best demographics of any major post-industrialized nation, both from internal birth rates as well as from immigration.

But, if her GDP comes to $30k per capita and the regime opens China for Chinese diaspora, demography would fix, no?

the regime IS open for chinese diaspora, trying to bribe Chinese-American scientists (among others) to come back to the "motherland".

it's been a pretty big failure. not only do these "sea turtles" (as the chinese call them) face serious integration issues back home, they're often viewed with a combination of suspicion and envy. most of them return back to the US once the gov't money runs out.

moreover, as the Chinese middle class grows, MORE of them are immigrating to the US, with many others trying to get a green card as a possible "escape chute".

if China wishes to reform itself so that this type of drain slows, then by all means, more power to them...because to do so, they'd have to reform along Western lines :)

[Double Edge]

Firstly the US economy. They currently carry a large debt burden and I'm yet to see any rational thesis as to how this can be either contained or reduced given their current commitments or the Democrats party's proclivities. Any number of EU economists would have ridiculed me in the late nineties/early 2000's if I'd said their debt burden was unsustainable, just as now when i say the US debt burden is unsustainable. 1.5 - 2% growth, all going well, is not enough to curtail the growth in, or reduce that debt. All that is required is a tightening of the money supply et voila. In the last crash they were able to borrow more money at no interest, will that continue in the future?

Why not ? the US has historically been a very good credit risk. The borrowing will be at higher interest rates if they lose their AAA rating.

Secondly, you say China would have to cover a very large area but in considering the US's global reach and ambitions/commitments it is in comparison just China's back yard. Would the US have to denude other areas to contain China, and if so, at what cost elsewhere?

Phrasing it as 'just china's backyard' makes it appear deceptively easy. Why should China give a damn about US bases in the first place when they could just reach out in a quick cat's paw like maneuver and grab Taiwan putting an end to the suspense once and for all. To the layman that should not be too difficult.

After all, its just in china's back yard right :)

Turns out its easier said than done and the scenario keeps getting shot down numerous times by OOE over the years. If China isn't guaranteed a win they will never try.

So another arms race will knock out China, too?

It will be a drain away from economic development. The tricky bit to figure out is at what point does the cost become worth it if ever.

I think rather than use force, China's best bet is to try and make the difference between the two meaningless.

[Parihaka]

Why not ? the US has historically been a very good credit risk. The borrowing will be at higher interest rates if they lose their AAA rating.

yes it will.

Phrasing it as 'just china's backyard' makes it appear deceptively easy. Why should China give a damn about US bases in the first place when they could just reach out in a quick cat's paw like maneuver and grab Taiwan putting an end to the suspense once and for all. To the layman that should not be too difficult.

After all, its just in china's back yard right :)

My point is, China does not need to achieve parity with the US to control their immediate environment. They just need to make it more expensive than the US is willing to pay. After all, the Allies could have rolled up the USSR immediately post WWII. They had the technological edge, the manpower and material. Why didn't they?

[astralis]

pari,

They just need to make it more expensive than the US is willing to pay.

depends on the area we're talking about.

for the most part, the most important areas-- precisely the areas that can spark a conflict-- are covered in some way by the US or a US ally, for instance, the taiwan strait or to a lesser degree, the senkakus/diaoyutai. in this case, a direct challenge by China to the US or to a close US ally is of such import that the US would need to respond or risk forfeiting her whole alliance structure. this the US absolutely cannot tolerate, thus the US would certainly be willing to pay a very high price indeed.

[Deltacamelately]

Do you see a role in China continuing to develop its blue water capability to carry the load protecting sea lanes etc, given your role in encouraging China to become a better international citizen?

India will probably pretty much oppose/block any such initiative of PLAN beyond Mallaca, even if the stated intentions were overal harmless.

[Deltacamelately]

Pari,

China has major territorial/strategic disputes with almost all her neighbours, this keeping the US aside. I wonder how can they commit resources to all the possible theatres, while upping the ante against the US. Even in another 20 - 30 years I do not see China growing exponentially in both economic and military regime to place such a credible challenge, while all her potential adversaries are also not sitting idle, do not forget Uncle Sam and the technologial barrier. Why do you then see NZ getting potentially clubbed between such a conflict between China and the US or/and China and the US+Allies?

[Double Edge]

About India,your rope ain't so tight right now.Even with a weak US,you'll still be balancing China pretty well.

Here's some food for thought.

Can India have robust economic ties with China and a stronger defence/security relationship with the US at the same time? Actually, India faces limited scope of its economic cooperation with China and it cannot forge a military alliance with the United States.

Secondly, India along with China desires to see the emergence of a multi-polar world system. But at the same time, New Delhi needs the United States to prevent the rise of a regional hegemon in the Indo-Pacific region.

Thirdly, India is weary of a G-2 world dominated by the United States and China. But at the same time, India would find it fiddly to navigate in the diplomatic river, if China and the US increasingly get involved in a complex Cold War.

Not so tight for India so long as the G2 get along ;)

In addition, sophisticated and advanced technology to India, necessary for a militarily stronger India, would not flow from the US and other Western countries, unless India further strengthens its strategic partnership with the United States. On the other hand, cordial ties with China demand more restricted defence relations with the United States.

The biggest puzzle is how to make India a truly autonomous centre of global power configuration without sparking regional Cold War with China and maintaining a judicious distance from the US short of an alliance.

President Barack Obama supports India’s membership in the UN Security Council and non-proliferation regimes, but China possesses the veto power to deny India access to all those bodies.

A successful G-2 world order may make India’s entry to influential international institutions gratuitous and a new kind of complex Sino-US Cold War may prevent it. The challenges ahead for Indian diplomacy are truly formidable.

Without getting into the military aspect, just the diplomatic side is a hand full.

China wants India to get closer because then they take us out by default as they can then turn India into a neutral party to any future conflict. China will try the same with all her neighbours.

The alliances you talk about are,IMO,a too rigid way to look at things.US and China playing it hard will involve everyone in the area

It will force the neighbours to take sides whether they like it or not. Lets hope it does not get to that.

[Officer of Engineers]

President Barack Obama supports India’s membership in the UN Security Council and non-proliferation regimes, but China possesses the veto power to deny India access to all those bodies.

You know after 30 years of this stunt, I had thought people wised up already. The US is not really interested in expanding the UNSC but it's scoring brownee points by appearing to do so. The US knows quite well that China will veto India just as China knows quite well that Moscow will veto Germany. China gains brownee points with Germany. The US with Japan, India, and Germany. Russia with India and Brazil, etc, all the while all five P5 knows that there is no way in hell would they ever agree on any country joining the UNSC.

The game is old ... and there are still idiots out there who believes it.

[Parihaka]

Pari,

China has major territorial/strategic disputes with almost all her neighbours, this keeping the US aside. I wonder how can they commit resources to all the possible theatres, while upping the ante against the US. Even in another 20 - 30 years I do not see China growing exponentially in both economic and military regime to place such a credible challenge, while all her potential adversaries are also not sitting idle, do not forget Uncle Sam and the technologial barrier. Why do you then see NZ getting potentially clubbed between such a conflict between China and the US or/and China and the US+Allies?

Our life-blood is trade. China is our second largest export market and out largest import market. With our FTA that will only increase. The US is our fourth largest export market and fifth largest import market. They, along with the UK, have been limiting our exports since the ANZUS affair.
The US is currently pushing very hard to have the TPP rewritten, offering carrots to other member nations for primary produce (our main exports) to be excluded in return for those countries to have greater access to the US market. It's not just the extremist nature of the Democrat party creating a more dangerous world but the US's ongoing economic hostility toward us.