Osama Bin Laden is dead and his corpse is in US hands.

[Cactus]

I third that... vsdoc, vishal, Tronic: Please check your Personal Messages.

[Double Edge]

It is close to a certainty that some elements of the Pakistani establishment were involved in harboring Bin Laden; with enough influence to make local authorities look the other way to a fortress like building in their midst inside a large military cantonment.

Right, so somebody in administration knew.

Though I would say it would be extremely unlikely that those at the very top like Zardari or even Kayani were aware; atleast of any specific information regarding the location of Bin Laden; if anything like that came out it could be catastrophic for Pakistan.

They might not know the exact location. But what about the basic question of whether he's in Pakistan or not. They've said they don't know where he is. But what about when they've said OBL is not in the country.

Do you remember which leaders said 'OBL is NOT in Pakistan' ?

Musharaf i think has made that statement repeatedly. So has Zardari & Giliani.

Its one thing not to know where OBL is its another to say not in the country.

There is a tendency in certain parts of the world to put a lot of faith in conspiracy theories in what I consider to be a coping mechanism for realities that are too difficult for them to face.

The main contributors to CT are a shortage of information or transparency. That this happens in certain parts of the world is a reflection on how information is disseminated. Whether due diligence is carried out and it frequently isn't due to sheer incompetence.

Pakistan should really worry when there are no more Americans inside Pakistan.

This is what Parthasaraty, a former Indian high commisioner, to Pakistan said on one of the talkshows here. He said come 2013-2014, US focus would switch from counter terrorism to counter insurgency. There would be less dependence from the US on Pakistan at that point.

Fine, but there is the other factor mentioned by the British ambassador which is any durable peace in Afghanistan depends on Pakistan. How much staying power does this point hold for Pakistan ?

I see a parallel to the situation vis-a-vis Iraq, before we decided in 1990 that Saddam was getting out of control; we supplied the Iraqi war machine for decades in the 1970's & '80's, partly because Iraq off-set the Iranian threat starting in 1979 (and kept them busy in the process), and partly because Saddam was still a "known quantity" to the US. Almost overnight, our policy changed, and GW1 resulted.

GW1 resulted because Saddam unilaterally decided to occupy Kuwait. Rather its more GW2 that you are alluding to ie Saddam's potential to wreak havoc. A havoc only made more imminent after 9-11.

Pakistan is more or less in the same political-economic position Iraq was before 1990; receiving lots of US aid (mostly monetarily), but starting to feel like she should call her own shots, and not be beholden to the Great Satan (sound familiar?). I see a time in the not too distant future when Pakistan will be considered a threat to US interests in the ME, instead of being an uneasy ally, especially with relations between the US & India growing warmer.

Well after this episode one expects a more sympathetic ear from the west when we grouse about regional terrorism. Whether India gets any more than that remains to be seen.

The one thing that has impressed me through the decades is the staying power of the Pakistani regime. Never shy to do whats in their interest. They'll do whatever it takes to survive. This might be the best thing for the Pakistani people. A regime faced with no other alternative but to reform itself. Its clear they presently do not give a damn about their own people, we can expect even less when it comes to dealing with the intl community. As the regime in place is not representative of the Pakistani public. By regime am referring to the unelected as opposed to the elected one.

Looking forward to the 'Pakistani spring' :)

[Julie]

Osama Bin Laden had cash, was ready to flee

Osama bin Laden had cash totaling 500 Euros and two telephone numbers sewn into his clothing when he was killed — sure signs that he was prepared to flee his compound at a moment’s notice — top U.S. intelligence officials told members of Congress at a classified briefing in the Capitol Tuesday.

Three sources who attended the briefing confirmed the details for POLITICO, and a fourth source said he had been told the same thing outside Tuesday’s meeting.

CIA Director Leon Panetta told lawmakers about the items found in bin Laden’s clothing in response to a question about why he wasn’t guarded by more security personnel at his relatively luxurious home in a military town north of Islamabad. The answer, according to one source: Bin Laden believed “his network was strong enough he’d get a heads-up” before any U.S. strike against him.The evidence of cash — which amounts to about $740 in U.S. dollars — and phone numbers was divulged to support the administration’s belief that bin Laden was prepared to escape the compound if alerted to an impending attack, the source said.

That view may also be buttressed by the White House’s revelation that bin Laden was not armed when he was killed in a Sunday raid by a Navy SEAL team. That team was able to capture intelligence — including computers and thumb drives, and, apparently, the phone numbers bin Laden was carrying.

Many lawmakers did not hear about the money and the phone numbers because they left the briefing before the question-and-answer session wrapped up.

Osama Bin Laden had cash, was ready to flee - Jonathan Allen - POLITICO.com

[ambidex]

Wikileaks doc: Tajikistan warned U.S. that Pakistan was protecting Bin Laden « Hot Air

[InExile]

I still dont think AM has really managed to answer this issue satisfactorily.

As per residents, this was a highly secure military area. Residents say they have been randomly searched just when coming or going from the neighborhood; even houses have been searched on occasion. Yet , this building that looked quite different from the rest was ignored.

So either AQ bribed off the local officials to leave this building alone; which is not impossible to be fair, but again this was a highly secure military area; or someone really high up in the ISI/military brought down influence to achieve the same.

Or the residents are lying to reporters; but why would they?

[S2]

A.M. Reply

"He fights from territory supposed to be controlled by the US. If you cannot control it, then divert your drones and Raymond Davis's there and control it before lecturing Pakistan about controlling NW."

Nobody has suggested we control Kunar. Rehman FIGHTS on a contested battlefield against our forces. He lives under constant threat of death from ground or air attack. This in no way compares to the undisturbed peace and tranquility enjoyed by the Haqqanis as they rape their way through the pashtu neighborhoods of N. Waziristan.

"Bugti's Afghan status was completely unknown to America."

Yes. Thus the question by Boucher. 1+1=2.

"He was being sheltered in Kabul?"

It's unclear to me where he was sheltered exactly. You don't know either. Speculation.

"How could you not know he was there when Pakistan was pointing it out to you?"

Why would we care so much to divert resources. He wasn't a target of ours.

"...And even assuming you had no idea he was there until 2007, what did the US do then? Was he arrested? Extradited to Pakistan? How did he get to Switzerland from Afghanistan?"

By airplane? We have none nor any warrant for his arrest. Your issues lie with an afghan government Pakistan has spent too much time and effort alienating instead of cultivating.

Have the Swiss extradited him?

Take your concerns to them.

[Double Edge]

For the claims that the house was "checked out in 2003". Here is something.

The guardian article you linked to had this juicy bit...

He said the ISI had raided the Abbottabad house as it was under construction in 2003 in search of Abu Faraj al-Libbi, an al-Qaida lieutenant who was eventually captured two years later.

But satellite imagery from 2004 shows an empty field on the site, and later images suggest that construction started a year later, shortly before US officials say Bin Laden and his family moved in.

So now the US says Bin Laden has been at this compound much much earlier than Aug 2010.

Can we have more to corroborate ?

[Parihaka]

Very pertinent to South Asian politics as it marks a shift within Congress in attitudes towards Pakistan, but.. the arguments over OBL have been been re-repeated every 10 pages.. Agnostic Muslim continues to convince us over his word than the DoD and Panetti. It'd do us better to speculate on the regional fall-out and geopolitical impact of Osamas death, and more importantly U.S reactions to Pakistan which I believe are critical to the stability of the M.E

Does the U.S support Pakistan until withdrawal? Or continue to support them post-withdrawal despite the clear malcontent felt from both sides over the issue, (Pakistani public and.. AM would have us believe, intelligentsia, and Congress/U.S public). This is a big moment, because it could represent a foreign policy shift. Examining it in the wider context would be good.

minus the pissing contests i agree

[nvishal]

The safe house didn't exist in 2003

[Red Seven]

Respectfully,I disagree.OBL was dead from an operational pov years for years.Paradoxically,it is a possibility that his Pakistani connection had a hand in this,but new light about those years and events has yet to come.
R7, I'll remind you this The Seven Phases of The Base - The Long War Journal

While no plan survives first contact and this one didn't as well,phase 4 is undergoing as we speak.

Roger that, thank you...sometimes I am guilty of "emotional posting."

[Parihaka]

OBL actually invited his death , he was watching Man united V Arsenal , and when Arsenal scored the winning goal ,he jumped up waving his arms and shouting


c,mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmooooooooooooooooonnnnn you Gunners

[Parihaka]

Second that.....you all stay on topic please.

booo hissss ;)

[Parihaka]

The safe house didn't exist in 2003

Another in a long list of "OOPS" moments for the Pakistan information disseminators

[DV RULES]

Read up on Pakistan, because I make the argument, that this was a suspicious compound? Look I didn't think they would have thought OBL to have been there. But the very least, I would have expected that this place, would have come under more scrutiny. And with the probable cause, of these guys being "bad characters" meaning the possibility that these guys could be fundamentalists, and possibly have links to terrorism, or something of that sort.

If you concerned suspecious by construction then i can tell you that there you can find many this type of houses, so in that area & in western provinces of Pakistan keeping that kind of houses is usual.

There were proper scrutiny & observation over it as Pakistan countinously shared intelligence information with CIA & with other intelligence organizations over suspecious elements in that area.

This Khan character.

If your question about use of "Khan" word overall in Pakistan then answer is as follow to next quote.

The fact is, I do read up on Pakistan. And it's quite evident, fundamentalism is a very strong issue in your country.

It means you didn't read up, try more. What main problem with your kind of people is unawareness & complete knowlage over particular religion, traditions, ethnicity & politics more over ground realities. You people have particular parameters based over fake stories & fairy tales, effected by disinformations from government. If something not matches with these parameters you count in catagory of fundamentalism or etc (I am talking about Pakistan). First of all learn what is fundamentalism and what your mind precieve or make image then i can answer you further.

My question is - why didn't this one raise a red flag? Why didn't they check these guys out fully? I can even through out absurd claims and conspiracy theories like you - and say, the person proposed is a cover. The deed really on the house was some ex Pakistani General or ISI official and they are covering the entire thing up! Now of course I don't have any proof - but that doesn't stop you from making these claims - why should it stop me?

Answer in first line of my post.
Bold part Not true & based over speculations. House was owned by N.W resident.

[Agnostic Muslim]

The safe house didn't exist in 2003

I was quoting the BBC interview quoting an anonymous official.

The Pakistani FO's official statement mentions 2003, but in a different context:

Abbottabad and the surrounding areas have been under sharp focus of intelligence agencies since 2003 resulting in highly technical operation by ISI which led to the arrest of high value Al Qaeda target in 2004. As far as the target compound is concerned, ISI had been sharing information with CIA and other friendly intelligence agencies since 2009. The intelligence flow indicating some foreigners in the surroundings of Abbottabad, continued till mid April 2011. It is important to highlight that taking advantage of much superior technological assets, CIA exploited the intelligence leads given by us to identify and reach Osama bin Ladin, a fact also acknowledged by the U.S. President and Secretary of State, in their statements. It is also important to mention that CIA and some other friendly intelligence agencies have benefited a great deal from the intelligence provided by ISI. ISI's own achievements against Al Qaeda and in War on Terror are more than any other intelligence agency in the World.

So either misquoted, misinterpreted or misstated in the original interview.