EEU = Soviet Lite

[citanon]

I recently had a something of an epiphany about what Putin ultimately wants. His strategic goal is to shape the character of the Russian nation.

National character is a tricky thing. It comprises both the character of the citizenry and a "machine" to maintain that character for generation after generation.

It is Putin's goal to construct a national character and the machinery to maintain Russia as the strongest and most expansionist power in Eurasia.He wants to build the idea of Russia's manifest destiny.

This may sound like a stupid goal but it's really not. It allows a nation to continuously expand and digest gains over a long period of time. Manifest destiny is how the US conquered America, how Rome conquered Europe. It works far better than single generation expansionist efforts, like Hitler's disastrous attempt on Europe.

So now Putin looks west and what does he see? He sees a Europe weakening from within by unaffordable socialism and Islamic immigration (we may think the latter is racist but of course Putin -is- racist). He sees a middle east in chaos and conflict. He sees a world that needs energy and resources. He surmise that if Russia maintains and accentuates its character, it the right machines are in place, then within a few decades Russia will be the supreme power in Europe again, that the Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and even a Western Europe riven by religious and racial conflict will look to Russia for stability and strength, that Russian influence will expand into welcoming lands, and even the Americans will be relieved to have an ally with strength and unity.

Looking around Europe today, can we be so sure that Putin will be proven wrong?

So Putin's Russia is a problem that will likely be with us for decades if not generations. The liberal Europeans do not see this. To do so they would have to regard liberalism with the more dispassionate eyes of a KGB spy.

[Mihais]

You are correct.But you reinvented the wheel.This is Russia of the last 500 years.As for the character pf the Russian people there is no need for work.It is already there.In fact many times it is the ruling class that is more moderate than the common people.Which is a complete reversal of a commen prejudice.

As for islam=race it's wrong.Albanians and Bosniaks are white.As for the fate of liberali as it is now understood,there is no future.It is dead ideology walking.
It is the more traditional/religious types in Europe that are having European children. Agreed about strife.Europe has only 2 realistic options:Anatolia or Spain in the 16th century.
Thing is Russia has many weaknesses.Most internal.It is likely EE that will rise.Russian liberators aren't welcome here.And this time a R-M Pact won't be as successful.

[citanon]

Mihais,

You've done a great job of representing a certain EE POV, including the wholesale buying in of several myths.

For most of the past 500 years the Russian people mainly worried about what to eat. For much of the last 300 Russia was a tired empire on its back foot, famous for the military prowess of its weather and dirt rather than its soldiers. It was the Bolsheviks who reinvigorated it, but they conflated ideology with destiny and over extended. In the 90s the character and direction of Russia was in real contention. Modernity and liberalism reared its green shoots in the tundra until Putin and his siloveki stepped in to safeguard the Russian character.

Now he's trying to make you believe that the values which made the modern world are bankrupt and feeble just because a few medieval minded fools keep shooting eachother amongst mud brick shambles.

That's okay though. At least Vlad will be happy the machine is starting to work well.

[Mihais]

Well,we have to see whose myths are more anchored in reality and history.

While the Russians weren't as prosperous as the West,they definetely weren't starving.Considering that their empire is still the size of US and Canada combined,while their opponents weren't Stone Age tribes,I'd say their soldiers are worth something.
Bolsheviks reinvigorated nothing.Before the war,Russia had the highest rate of industrialization.It was this industrialization that stood at the roots of WW1.If anything,the Bolsheviks destroyed Russia.
As for ideology,it is the common Russian that believes in its Messianic mission to be the 3d Rome.For various reasons,Russian elites were always more influenced by foreign ideas and ideologies.In part because they weren't Russian themselves.

As for the modern values,they simply aren't the values that made the modern world great.Nobody can say that 19th /early 20th century values weren't useful.

[Officer of Engineers]

So Putin's Russia is a problem that will likely be with us for decades if not generations. The liberal Europeans do not see this. To do so they would have to regard liberalism with the more dispassionate eyes of a KGB spy.

Problem - Will Putin's vision survive Putin's death? It certainly did not survive Putin's first retirement from the Presidency.

[astralis]

long-term, the Russian population is expected to fall anywhere from 15-25% by 2050, with most predictions actually falling on the more severe end of the scale.

good luck trying to be a world power with that type of population; the Russian military would need to expend most of its budget simply trying to keep its nuclear armament operational.

[snapper]

For much of the last 300 Russia was a tired empire on its back foot, famous for the military prowess of its weather and dirt rather than its soldiers.

What? You ever heard of the Great Northern War (1700-1721) during which what is now Finland was occupied? The First Polish Partition in 1772? The end of the Zaporozhian Host (1775) after the defeat of the Krimea Khanate and the occupation of Crimea? In 1700 the land on which St Petersburg is today was Swedish and in 1991 all of Eastern Europe and half of Germany occupied and this sitting on the back foot during the last 300 hundred years?

For most of the past 500 years the Russian people mainly worried about what to eat.

They have never starved and if they ordinary person in Russia is poorer in than the average ordinary person in free Europe it is usually because their leaders are thiefs. Guess which country has the greatest wealth inequality today...

Now he's trying to make you believe that the values which made the modern world are bankrupt and feeble just because a few medieval minded fools keep shooting eachother amongst mud brick shambles.

That is a fundamental misunderstanding of the Putin regime and Putin himself. You have to understand there was a KGB - Mafiosi link up in the 1990s of which Putin was a leading light in St Petersburg with the Tambovskaya mob. Nearly all the people who run State companies (Sechin at Rosneft, Alexey Millar at Gazprom, Medvedev, Ivanov the Rottenburg brothers) all come from the crime days in St Petersburg when Putin was Deputy Mayor. He and his gang have robbed the Muscovite people on a horrendous scale apart from murdering them when they get inconvenient or even to get him elected in the first place. These cases and files are not some invention of some secretive Western agency, the CIA or the Jews or whatever, the Russians that fled gave us the information so the Russians know it better than we do. Thus his only real motivation is to stay in power so that he is not punished for his crimes in this life. All this supposed 'paranoia' about 'encirclement' etc is BS; nobody is going to invade Muscovy but he has to appear as if he is 'saving the nation against the enemy' whether it be the Ukrainians - who went from fraternal partners to become entirely 'fascist' overnight - or the Americans who have publicly declared their "pivot to Asia". What frightened him about Ukraine was the thought something similar to the Maidan might happen in Muscovy and he would be put on trial or shot.

Nor I am afraid to tell you are dictatorships that rob their own people in history innovative or in any way successful economically; you have to let people do their own thing to get a market economy going and when so much of the wealth is in the hands of so few the investment potential is governed by the kleptocracy largely. Who got the Kerch bridge contract? The Rottenburgs - the Winter Olympics contracts and price was over 6 times higher than the previous Winter Olympics in Vancouver and again the Rottenburgs (one is an old judo pal of Putins) got most of the contracts. Where did the money go? Into pockets and offshore to penthouses in London etc... As much as they claim to despise 'degenerate Europe' they are all anxious to own property and educate their children there. Putin's daughter was in Holland, Lavrovs daughter remains in New York, even the recently remarried 'spokesman' Peskov's first wife and daughter live in Paris. Putin started buying property in Spain in the 1990s (http://joinfo.com/world/1007955_puti...afia-boss.html).

So if you mean that Putin is 'continuing the tradition' and that the Muscovite people will remain worried about the cost of food and housing and pensions etc for another few years you are probably right. It is the television versus the fridge as some term it meaning if that they turn on their television they see all this claptrap about 'glorious renewal of power' and pictures of them bombing Syrians etc but if they want to fill their fridge things do not seem so glorious. Real incomes have fallen badly and their is no real economic plan to get out of their depression; just jingoistic nationalism and gay bashing in the name of religion. The Italians have a higher GDP with a population of 59-60m compared to 143m and virtually no natural resources. To paraphrase S2 never has so much been stolen from so many by so few but this normal in Muscovy so presumably fine? It's the Muscovite 'character'? I do not think it is their 'character' but their 'normal condition to which they have become accustomed never having known anything else'.

I am not a Muscovite hater though I will do all I can to hasten their departure from Ukraine and Belarus; I have family there one of which is currently living with my family in Ukraine. Her Brother is in jail for the anti Putin demonstrating at Bolotnaya after the last election was frauded. Her Father then lost his job with the local Government because of his sons actions and now works as private taxi driver; they are having a hard time. The parents will not leave without their son but sent us their daughter so that she might have a better life. She is free to return of course but prefers to stay in Ukraine. Instead of worrying about Muscovite 'character', which is total myth - they are no different from us basically - it would better to worry about their people whom Putin is oppressing, robbing, murdering and long term condemning to stasis entirely to save his own and his gang of thieves skins.

At least Vlad will be happy the machine is starting to work well.

"Working well" for VVP equates to nothing but keeping him and his gang in power.

Have a look at this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__UA...qOKdzvNUZ01ZtA All the panel are 'Russians' speaking about the future of the Muscovite economy last year.

[citanon]

What? You ever heard of the Great Northern War (1700-1721) during which what is now Finland was occupied? The First Polish Partition in 1772? The end of the Zaporozhian Host (1775) after the defeat of the Krimea Khanate and the occupation of Crimea? In 1700 the land on which St Petersburg is today was Swedish and in 1991 all of Eastern Europe and half of Germany occupied and this sitting on the back foot during the last 300 hundred years?

You are right, im thinking more of the 100 year period leading up to the Russian revolution

They have never starved and if they ordinary person in Russia is poorer in than the average ordinary person in free Europe it is usually because their leaders are thiefs. Guess which country has the greatest wealth inequality today...

Up to the revolution 85% or so of Russians were peasant, and before the 19th century many of those were serfs. So yes, they mainly worried about what to eat next and their relations with the landlor

That is a fundamental misunderstanding of the Putin regime and Putin himself. You have to understand there was a KGB - Mafiosi link up in the 1990s of which Putin was a leading light in St Petersburg with the Tambovskaya mob....

No, by your definition Caeser would also be a mob boss. You see the thievery but dont see that it's incidental to Putin's goals. It's a part of the machine. A system created to benefit those twho serve the interests of the state and derive continuous benefit from expansion and maintenance of control of the state by the "guardians" of the Russian character.

You'd like to believe that it's rapacious and venal in its ultimate aims but in reality, its a system designed to harness rapacious venality to achieve long term goals.

Well , at least it's trying to be. It wont necessarily succeed.

[citanon]

Problem - Will Putin's vision survive Putin's death? It certainly did not survive Putin's first retirement from the Presidency.

He's trying to do better the second time around. The strategy may have only gradually come into focus for him over the last several years.

long-term, the Russian population is expected to fall anywhere from 15-25% by 2050, with most predictions actually falling on the more severe end of the scale.

good luck trying to be a world power with that type of population; the Russian military would need to expend most of its budget simply trying to keep its nuclear armament operational.

He's trying doesn't mean he'll succeed.

The flip side of that is that he's got problems doesn't mean he will fail.

[snapper]

No, by your definition Caeser would also be a mob boss. You see the thievery but dont see that it's incidental to Putin's goals. It's a part of the machine. A system created to benefit those twho serve the interests of the state and derive continuous benefit from expansion and maintenance of control of the state by the "guardians" of the Russian character.

Caesar wasn't running criminal scams before elected Consul. Nor did he terrorize Romans to get himself elected to office. He went criminal when he crossed the Rubicon and you can argue the rights or wrongs of that decision but the fact is it was against the law at the time. Putin was involved in organised crime all through the 90s and was behind the appartment bombings that were used as an excuse for Second Chechen War and his subsequent election as President. He was criminal from the start. If he has stopped the mafia wars it is only because he has monopolised the control within his own gang (apart from Kadyrov whom the siloviki hate).

You'd like to believe that it's rapacious and venal in its ultimate aims but in reality, its a system designed to harness rapacious venality to achieve long term goals.

I would like to believe? Simply hilarious... Look old chap the proof is in that this is a mafia state. Read the Spanish Prosecutors report, the SPAG documentation, study the murders, look at all the overwhelming evidence - plenty is open source. If you want a book try Karen Dawisha's "Who owns Russia?". Yet you seem to believe that despite all this evidence he has an alternative motivation regarding Russian 'character', a somewhat meaningless identification and absolutely no grounds for believing such a thing. It is as if I were to say "I believe that Stalins real motivation for the Holodomor was to satiate the God Perun (the Slavic version of Thor) and therefore win the Second World War". Might be true... but no evidence for it so hardly worth considering. There are still flat earthers around too...

[astralis]

citanon,

He's trying doesn't mean he'll succeed.

The flip side of that is that he's got problems doesn't mean he will fail.

I think you're overstating a tad what Putin wants to do. he considers the fall of the USSR to be the greatest tragedy of the 20th century. he knows he can't put it all back together, but he would like to get Russia to the "75% solution", where even if Russia cannot exert direct control, she can be heavily influential.

that's different from being the most expansionist power a la Peter the Great, I'm pretty sure even Putin knows that Russia doesn't need more lebensraum.

Putin would like Russia to be a superpower but knows that given all the limitations, Russia probably can't achieve that-- but CAN be a Great Power. (in that, I agree with you in your debate with snapper above; he plainly has no scruples against using the state to protect himself and enrich his cronies, but he has a greater -vision- than simply Russia being a Mafia state.)

the problem is that even with this "limited vision", his actions only work when oil is consistently $100-150/bbl. he's trying to play the Great Power game but doesn't have the economy or the long-term demographics to sustain it. all of his actions right now are effectively using up what Russia stored during the "fat years" of high oil prices. Russia's not likely going to get that again for a long while.

[Dazed]

citanon,



I think you're overstating a tad what Putin wants to do. he considers the fall of the USSR to be the greatest tragedy of the 20th century. he knows he can't put it all back together, but he would like to get Russia to the "75% solution", where even if Russia cannot exert direct control, she can be heavily influential.

that's different from being the most expansionist power a la Peter the Great, I'm pretty sure even Putin knows that Russia doesn't need more lebensraum.

Putin would like Russia to be a superpower but knows that given all the limitations, Russia probably can't achieve that-- but CAN be a Great Power. (in that, I agree with you in your debate with snapper above; he plainly has no scruples against using the state to protect himself and enrich his cronies, but he has a greater -vision- than simply Russia being a Mafia state.)

the problem is that even with this "limited vision", his actions only work when oil is consistently $100-150/bbl. he's trying to play the Great Power game but doesn't have the economy or the long-term demographics to sustain it. all of his actions right now are effectively using up what Russia stored during the "fat years" of high oil prices. Russia's not likely going to get that again for a long while.

Like+ For all of Putin vision and results a very hefty bill and cash drain, when does the price become to high? With low oil prices and a contracting economy do his cronies drop him when their wallets are pinched or do they live and die together? Is he Stalin in that he rules through fear that extends through the current security services or does the security services just prosper under his rule?

[citanon]

Caesar wasn't running criminal scams before elected Consul. Nor did he terrorize Romans to get himself elected to office. He went criminal when he crossed the Rubicon and you can argue the rights or wrongs of that decision but the fact is it was against the law at the time. Putin was involved in organised crime all through the 90s and was behind the appartment bombings that were used as an excuse for Second Chechen War and his subsequent election as President. He was criminal from the start. If he has stopped the mafia wars it is only because he has monopolised the control within his own gang (apart from Kadyrov whom the siloviki hate).

Caesar took money as a matter of course from the Roman state and from conquered territories. Putin is continuing a millenia long tradition. We simply call it crime today.

I would like to believe? Simply hilarious... Look old chap the proof is in that this is a mafia state. Read the Spanish Prosecutors report, the SPAG documentation, study the murders, look at all the overwhelming evidence - plenty is open source. If you want a book try Karen Dawisha's "Who owns Russia?". Yet you seem to believe that despite all this evidence he has an alternative motivation regarding Russian 'character', a somewhat meaningless identification and absolutely no grounds for believing such a thing. It is as if I were to say "I believe that Stalins real motivation for the Holodomor was to satiate the God Perun (the Slavic version of Thor) and therefore win the Second World War". Might be true... but no evidence for it so hardly worth considering. There are still flat earthers around too...

What you are not getting is that all the murders, etc, to him, and those around him, are incidental. I'm not being naive about your enemy. His ruthlessness is just so much beyond your sense of right and wrong, good or evil. He is beyond your measurement scale and you cannot get past the things that he considers of minor importance.

[citanon]

citanon,



I think you're overstating a tad what Putin wants to do. he considers the fall of the USSR to be the greatest tragedy of the 20th century. he knows he can't put it all back together, but he would like to get Russia to the "75% solution", where even if Russia cannot exert direct control, she can be heavily influential.

that's different from being the most expansionist power a la Peter the Great, I'm pretty sure even Putin knows that Russia doesn't need more lebensraum.

Putin would like Russia to be a superpower but knows that given all the limitations, Russia probably can't achieve that-- but CAN be a Great Power. (in that, I agree with you in your debate with snapper above; he plainly has no scruples against using the state to protect himself and enrich his cronies, but he has a greater -vision- than simply Russia being a Mafia state.)

the problem is that even with this "limited vision", his actions only work when oil is consistently $100-150/bbl. he's trying to play the Great Power game but doesn't have the economy or the long-term demographics to sustain it. all of his actions right now are effectively using up what Russia stored during the "fat years" of high oil prices. Russia's not likely going to get that again for a long while.

Asty, I'm not saying Putin is trying to make Russia in to a Super Power now. He wants to lay down or at least maintain the basis for Russia becoming one in the coming decades, and, if he is right about the direction of Europe, then there will be opportunities for eastward expansion of Russia's dominion.

Part of this laying the ground work and building the machine is to enter limited military engagements that can strengthen the Russian military, which, I think we can agree, he has done. Part of it is to create self-defined foreign policy victories that increase Russian prestige and influence in world affairs, which, I think we can agree, he has also done. He clearly wants a vital and confident Russian military and a muscular but agile foreign policy that integrates every aspect of Russia's national power to achieve limited goals.

Of all his challenges, his biggest is demographics. Oil prices will rise from this low point, but probably not back up to $100. But, we also do not have a clear picture of the precise point at which low oil prices are genuinely damaging to the new power structure he's created in Russia.

What we have before us then, is a set of strategic objectives on the part of Putin, and constraints and problems, some of which cannot be addressed. No one can predict how this can truly play out, but we can use our understanding of his thinking to plan our response to him.

[snapper]

I think you're overstating a tad what Putin wants to do.

We do not KNOW and cannot know what he - or anybody else - really wants or thinks. It is wisest to judge from his past actions rather than words as the only time he doesn't lie is when he is silent.

Caesar took money as a matter of course from the Roman state and from conquered territories. Putin is continuing a millenia long tradition. We simply call it crime today.

Caesar was not involved in organised crime before he became Consul. He later found political opponents who would have used the law to have him killed so felt justified in crossing the Rubicon in order to uphold the value of the law and stop it's manipulation by his enemies. Putin is a very different fish and rotten from the core.

What you are not getting is that all the murders, etc, to him, and those around him, are incidental. I'm not being naive about your enemy. His ruthlessness is just so much beyond your sense of right and wrong, good or evil. He is beyond your measurement scale and you cannot get past the things that he considers of minor importance.

There is no need to tell me what the Muscovite regime is or it's potential ambitions - I have seen aftermath in Donbass and warned long ago that Putin was trouble and that gas was being used a weapon. It was evident after Georgia for all those who cared to accept the facts. Many of course knew well before that. Nor do I have any qualms about right and wrong, good and evil when it comes to winning and the greater good. My point is not that he does not have ambitions - though it is sod all to with 'Russian character' but certainly has alot to do with 'divide and rule'. My point is that his primary motivation is to retain power. Everything else is secondary to that. And while the Muscovite army learns so do their enemies of which they keep increasing the number... threatening Denmark with nukes is a stupid thing to do publicly but was done to 'look tough' for a domestic audience which ironically he fears more than anything else. He has got himself into a hole and has no choice but to keep digging it; he's going to 'hang someone' if the Kerch bridge is not done on time is the latest (presumably not the Rottenburgs). This is all for the domestic audience and nothing to do with long term strategic thinking, just tactical short term political posing. Ukraine is lost and no matter how you look at it that is not a long term win. It has nothing whatsoever to do breeding 'Russian character' but everything to do with saving his own neck from his people.