EEU = Soviet Lite

[citanon]

Mihais my friend, the bark of the bear is worse than it's bite in this case. Kyiv or Warsawa or even your Moldovan cousins are beyond them except by subterfuge against which all are now forewarned. Syria is but a bluff; "lets have coalition against ISIS" is BS... there has been one for the last year. It's just 'look at me stuff' for the home audience mostly and too often we forget that the main goal of the Muscovite Mafiosi regime is simply to retain power at home.

Next we must 'win the peace'; Za naszą i waszą wolność: Międzymorze!

Snapper, I think we are mis-underestimating Putin. It's true that he has might not have a grand strategy in the sense of a plan to make comprehensive gains in a short time in areas where he is engaged, but he is taking little nibbles. Whether we used the Pink song analogy or the bear analogy, he's just getting his bites where he sees there's an opportunity.

You might think this a failed strategy, but then ask yourself what was more successful, Napolean or Hitler's grand designs to conquer Europe, or the US' conquest of North America, or the Romans' conquest of Europe?

In the case of the former, they tried to push through a high risk high demand strategy for conquering large swaths of territory, but could not hold on. On the other hand, the US and the Romans' felt entitled to their respective dominions, but the fighting was done in small bites, with no real grand strategy.

What the former did was to create a shortlived campaign for conquest. What the latter did was to create an engine of aggression that led generations to continuously expand and push in small bites.

I think what Putin is doing today is 3 fold.

1. Obviously this has a lot to do with his staying in power - part of which means making sure none of his neighbors do better than Russia.
2. He's getting bites and gains where he can.
3. He's trying to shape the nature of the Russian nation and the Russian people. He's trying to build a machine for expansion and aggression (or in his mind: greatness of Russia).

As KGB, his first and foremost charge is in the psychological realm. He wants to shape the way that Russians think, and that is a primary goal in and of itself.

[snapper]

citanon Sir,

I would agree with you to a point; that much of what he does is aimed at his domestic audience. Whether Muscovites will lap up the body bags (or zinc lined caskets which is why they are called 'Cargo 200' convoys) returning home from Syria remains to be seen; I am dubious personally. The 'Federation Council', different from the Duma/lower house of Parliament, that earlier today (belatedly) authorised the deployment to Syria is a rubber stamp for the reported air strikes now going on. How did the US public feel about the dead service men returning home from Iraq and Afghanistan? The Muscovite public may cheer it to a point as a signal of a 'strong Russia' but the initial 'glory' may die out equally as fast. It remains to be seen and we already know for a fact that the mafiosi regime is scared to reveal it's casualty numbers as they made the reporting of casualties in 'peace time' illegal and deployed mobile cremotoria to occupied Donbass to conceal the numbers of their casualties mostly from their domestic audience. I agree wholeheartedly with your "1. Staying in power" point but I question the wisdom of the Syrian involvement as a contribution to this aim.

On a minor point of fact: Putin during his active service in the Cold War in the KGB only attained the rank of Major. He was a nobody until he got in with St. Petersburg mafia and Government where he made alot of 'friends' - and money. He was only 'bumped up' to Colonel due to the 'technicality' that to run the FSB the rules say you have to have served as a Colonel or more senior rank prior to taking charge.

By and large I stand by my prognosis in the Syria thread. They have lost Ukraine - for good and are having to pay bills for Crimea and Donbass as well as suffer sanctions and falling oil and commodities prices. They need to avoid this or long term they are going to have trouble at home. They need an end of the isolation and the return of loans. Syria and Putin's proposed 'coalition against terrorism' is aimed to achieve this but he overlooks that the 'coalition' has been in place and bombing ISIS for the last year. Having strategically lost in Ukraine they are forced into a dangerous tactical adventure. I thought and still think it was a mistake to have overlooked Obama's 'red line' in Syria; we should have gone in and removed Assad then but that is the past and the moving finger has moved on. Now we need only watch and laugh as the Muscovites commit themselves to the same mistakes as we have previously made. Stay out, increase sanctions and maybe a no fly zone above Kurdish controlled territory in Syria while pushing for a new Turkish - Kurdish rapprochment, and clear up the Yemeni mess asap, which means kicking Egypt into action to help the Saudis. To my mind the Putin regime is getting desperate; the Syrian gambit and the UN speech are signs of this. Laugh and wait.

The level of hypocrisy though has reached a new high; “You all know well that in the territory of Syria and Iraq … a number of countries are carrying out bombing strikes, including the United States,” said Ivanov. “These actions do not conform with international law. To be legal they should be supported either by a resolution of the UN security council, or be backed by a request from the country where the raids are taking place.” So Muscovite air strikes, unsupported a resolution of the UNSC are 'legal' or what? A mafiosi regime which is continually, deeper and to a greater degree digging it's own grave from contradictions. We know how this works in the Middle East and the Muscovites have less experience in the Middle East than us. Pass the popcorn please... I shall enjoy this no end.

[Red Team]

The way I see it if Putin wants to plant his foot in the Middle East, I say let him. He'll soon experience a quagmire that'll make Ukraine look like an actual vacation. And Russia is in absolutely no economic shape to handle either of those situations in the long-term.

Having come back from St. Petersburg over the summer, I was able to talk some politics with friends and from what I understand, the main reason Putin is so popular is because his policies (i.e., Ukraine, fuel trade etc.) rally around the overall theme of restoring Russia to greatness--which is an easy thing to appreciate especially after a few decades of economic mediocrity. Many Russians are quick to overlook his many ethical transgressions not just because of the way the state-run media distorts the truth, but also because in their eyes, the moral and tangible gains of having Putin in power far outweigh the costs. After all, better the devil you know than the devil you don't.

In the end, it's a well-timed gamble. Putin sees this as an opportunity to further his goal of restoring Russia as a major world power as the US readies itself for yet another recuperating slumber. He seems to believe he can succeed in a region where the US has not.

Hmm, upon thinking about that last point, the definition of insanity comes to mind.

[Mihais]

Sara,you underestimate them this time.It is no tactical move but a strategic.
Their aim is twofold.Separate the West from US.Especially Germany . Remove the sanctions.That will stab Ukraine in the back.
Two is creating a grand sphere of influence in the ME.Basically a Shiastan.Screw the Saudis and remove the threat on their budget.

For yhe first part,the carrot is the fight vs the caliphate.The stick is the migrant masses.
For the second,the Russians only need to keep their allies well supplied and supported from the air.
If they can offer a mobile reserve it can be a deciding move.They only need superior mobility and firepower to win the deserts.
Btw,Assad requested their support.They are legit on this one and they will use this point in psyops.

Frankly speaking,it all depends on how weak and stupid the French and the Germans are.
Next year it will depend on the next US administration.

What we need and we need it fast is to create a reliable alliance in the entire East,more or less outside EU and NATO.

[snapper]

I share your skepticism regarding the Frogs and Krauts and agree with on the urgency of a CEE alliance of nations, with or without the Huns and Visegrad. The crux of the alliance must be the Warsawa - Kyiv - Bucharest relationship. The Fins and Swedes may then be interested as the other Visegrad members slowly come around. Long term we cannot rely on the French or the Germans, both of who's records we remember to our previous cost. It is for us and from us that we must find our resources and inspiration; between us and the potential of Ukraine growing daily this is a unique opportunity. As I said before; we must win the peace. Please forgive my Polish but allow me to translate I Polish I used before; Za naszą i waszą wolność: Międzymorze!/For our freedom and yours: Intermarium!

[citanon]

I agree that the average Russian would not be pleased by the real casualty figures, but Russia is not a country run by average Russians based on the truth.

first and foremost to build an engine for "greatness" each of Putin's ventures need to bring some benefit for the Russian elite or sustain some aspect of the machine.

If tge Colonel is right, Russian adventures in Eastern Ukraine has landed Putin an extra army whose casualties will greater casualty tolerance than troops from Russia proper. He's going to be able to hold onto those gains even if he has to pay for them in the short term.

In Syria, Putin does not want to leave himself entirely dependent on Iran to operate in the middle East. He wants a second Russian client to compete for Moscow's affections.

the question we need to ask ourselves is, what can we do to make -certain- that he is overextending himself in every instance, and that he could not further exploit his new army in Ukraine?

[Officer of Engineers]

If tge Colonel is right, Russian adventures in Eastern Ukraine has landed Putin an extra army

Minor quibble but with major implications. 100,000 men is 3 armies. I'm sure the Moscow can supply the Army HQs.

[citanon]

Minor quibble but with major implications. 100,000 men is 3 armies. I'm sure the Moscow can supply the Army HQs.

Yeah, and Putin has to use them or they turn into a liability. Question is, what's his next move? I think more than anything, he wants Kiev and the West to pay for Donetsk. He needs to figure out a way of getting that money.

[S2]

"...He needs to figure out a way of getting that money."

He can altogether avoid the cost by LEAVING. That's not anybody's obligation but his...until the Russians leave and cease interfering in Ukrainian internal security operations.

[Officer of Engineers]

Steve,

You're asking the enemy to do what you want. I rather him to do what I expect him to do ... so I can kill him.

[snapper]

If tge Colonel is right, Russian adventures in Eastern Ukraine has landed Putin an extra army whose casualties will greater casualty tolerance than troops from Russia proper. He's going to be able to hold onto those gains even if he has to pay for them in the short term.

The Colonel's view on Muscovite numbers in and around Ukraine has differed for some time. The Colonel's reading of the RISI report on the units identified in Ukraine led him to suspect that Moscow was running thin on manpower. Most people in Ukraine put a different interpretation on it; their desire to surpress domestic knowledge of casualties. Now in my view he vastly over estimates the numbers of 'separatists'; "The Russians managed to recruit 100,000 Ukrainian troops in the Donbass area." Underestimates Ukrainian numbers... "Kiev needed to strip the rest of the Ukraines for a mere 50,000", and exaggerates the number of troops over the border which is says is around 80,000; "Added to the two Russian Field Armies over the border, that's 180,000 pro-Moscow troops vs 50,000 pro-Kiev troops."

General Muzhenko, the Ukrainian Chief of Staff himself put the numbers in the occupied area at around 40,000 and he is prone to exaggerate for political reasons. I would be surprised if there were more than 38,000 men in uniform in occupied Eastern Ukraine and of these many will be combat ineffective. Across the border there are no more 55,000 Muscovite troops (NATO estimates around 50,000) while Ukraine has over 60,000 troops in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts alone and over 230,000 men under arms total. If were as the Colonels suggests they would presumably be looking to walk into Kyiv before the first serious snow. Then why the ceasefire? Apparently there was NO breach whatsoever in the ceasefire in the last 24hrs though one Ukrainian soldier was injured by a mine.

I have no desire for another dispute with the Colonel about numbers but if you accept these more realistic numbers the Muscovite reluctance to come further makes sense as does their need to open another front - in Syria. If you accept the Colonel's numbers then you must explain why they are not advancing with ease.

[Officer of Engineers]

The Colonel's view on Muscovite numbers in and around Ukraine has differed for some time. The Colonel's reading of the RISI report on the units identified in Ukraine led him to suspect that Moscow was running thin on manpower.

They WERE running low on manpower. They had more than a year to rebuild. Kiev went from 10,000 to 50,000 in the battle area. What made you think the Russians were standing still?

The 100,000 number was produced by DPR and LPR in a recruitment drive. It would be military idiocy to ignore that capbility.

As for the Russian Army itself, two field armies within striking distance. That's 80,000 men.

[gunnut]

I share your skepticism regarding the Frogs and Krauts and agree with on the urgency of a CEE alliance of nations, with or without the Huns and Visegrad. The crux of the alliance must be the Warsawa - Kyiv - Bucharest relationship. The Fins and Swedes may then be interested as the other Visegrad members slowly come around. Long term we cannot rely on the French or the Germans, both of who's records we remember to our previous cost. It is for us and from us that we must find our resources and inspiration; between us and the potential of Ukraine growing daily this is a unique opportunity. As I said before; we must win the peace. Please forgive my Polish but allow me to translate I Polish I used before; Za naszą i waszą wolność: Międzymorze!/For our freedom and yours: Intermarium!

Oooh oooh oooh....I know that word. I've actually visited the town and the castle on the hill.

[snapper]

The 100,000 number was produced by DPR and LPR in a recruitment drive. It would be military idiocy to ignore that capbility.

As for the Russian Army itself, two field armies within striking distance. That's 80,000 men.

Since according to you there are double the amounts of troops in the occupied area than are in the rest of Ukraine in total (100,000 vs 50,000) it would seem you must explain why they are not advancing with some ease.

[Officer of Engineers]

Since according to you there are double the amounts of troops in the occupied area than are in the rest of Ukraine in total (100,000 vs 50,000) it would seem you must explain why they are not advancing with some ease.

Easily done. Standard attack to defender ratio is 3 to 1. Russian HQs like 6 to 1.