Ukraine Elections 2012 Oct 28th

[Minskaya]

Can we take it that a PoR win is good for the future of the Ukranian economy ?

It is for the oligarchs and the politically connected

Ukraine 2012: Classification-Repressed / Unemployment-8.4% / Inflation (CPI)-9.4%

Overview
Ukraine’s economic freedom score is 46.1, making its economy the 163rd freest in the 2012 Index. Ukraine is ranked last out of 43 countries in the Europe region, and its overall score is lower than the world average. The foundations of economic freedom are fragile in Ukraine and unevenly established across the country. Poor protection of property rights and widespread corruption discourage entrepreneurial activity, severely undermining prospects for long-term economic expansion. The rule of law is weak, and the judicial system remains susceptible to substantial political interference. After several years of strong growth, Ukraine’s economic vitality has deteriorated, partly because of the global economic slowdown and also because of the generally sluggish pace of efforts to improve regulatory efficiency and open markets to international investment. The financial sector is not developed enough to provide the necessary credit for private-sector expansion, and the regulatory environment remains opaque and burdensome. Recent large fiscal deficits have strained public finances, forcing Ukraine to confront the challenge of restoring sustainable levels of public spending.

Background
Ukraine has been independent since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. President Victor Yanukovych of the Party of Regions, elected in January 2010, has fast-tracked rapprochement with Russia, harassed the political opposition, and impeded freedom of the press. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet’s naval base lease has been extended until 2042 in exchange for discounted Russian gas. Parliament has rejected plans to join NATO, but Ukraine joined the World Trade Organization in 2008 and the European Union’s Eastern Partnership in 2009. Ukraine has well-developed industry, rich agricultural lands, and significant natural resources. It is also an important route for oil and gas exports from Russia to Western Europe. Corruption and government intervention in the economy continue to undermine economic growth.

Rule of Law
The rule of law is uneven across the country, and protection of property rights is weak. The judiciary is subject to executive branch and criminal pressure, and judicial corruption is significant. Contracts are not well enforced, and expropriation is a threat. Ukraine is a major transshipment point, storage location, and market for illegal optical media produced in Russia and elsewhere. Corruption pervades all levels of the executive branch.

The Freedom Index - Ukraine

[Double Edge]

This would be the same Ukraine that along with Poland successfully held the Eurocup this year. Must have cost a lot to do that. Its a bullish statement. If the PoR is in favour of Russian language that means Russian capital is more at ease in Ukraine.

Easier way to promote Russian language is to make good Russian movies and soaps. nothing more

America had its robber barons between the civil war and the turn of the century, their empires drove the american economy at the time and are still important today. Every other developing nation has theirs.

[Minskaya]

If the PoR is in favour of Russian language that means Russian capital is more at ease in Ukraine.

I have no objection to Russian as a second official language. I speak it myself.

America had its robber barons between the civil war and the turn of the century, their empires drove the american economy at the time and are still important today. Every other developing nation has theirs.

I visit Zaporozh'ye once or twice a year. They always ask me to stick around, and I always decline. Same with Minsk.

[cyppok]

Preliminary results of the vote count (CONSTANTLY UPDATED)

These are the official preliminary results as of 6 p.m., Nov. 2, according to the Central Election Commission.

Thus, according to the Central Election Commission, Party of Regions will get a total of 187 seats in the new parliament, Batkivshchyna - 102, independent candidates - 44, UDAR - 40, Svoboda - 38, Communist Party - 32, others - 7.



There is actually some protesting going on to have a re-run election in 5 directly elected places but I don't think it will happen.

There is neat story that because Batkyvshina, Udar, and Svoboda did not cooperate on putting or taking off united candidates on directly elected okrugs(places) they lost up to 40 possible seats. Ergo in about 40 constituencies where they cooperated and removed candidates for one another one of them took the place but in parts where they could have removed a candidate for one that was from a diff opposition party that could have strengthened their hand etc... I partly disagree with this, ergo people whom voted for UDAR would most likely never vote for Svoboda the reverse could be true though and Batkyvshina could be possible as well vice versa.

The problem is hindsight is 20/20 and demanding re-runs right now under different circumstances is a bit unfair to those whom won. Which was regions in some cases and independents in a lot(most) of other cases.

I expect the results more or less to stand.

Regions + Coms = 219 and you need 226 for majority with a few independents.

My guess is nothing changes much and the general malaise and economic borrowing will continue. (It started under Yuschenko btw to be honest) Ergo the debt is now triple what it was about 6 years ago and is growing exponentially. I think it was 17 bil and now its close to 60.
Not sure but I m close to the numbers.

For references sake people have to remember that Batkyvshina was part of majority gov't during 2006-2007+ timeline and ruled with the Our Ukraine (which didn't make it into parliament at all this time around) with the socialists I think.

[Double Edge]

My guess is nothing changes much and the general malaise and economic borrowing will continue. (It started under Yuschenko btw to be honest) Ergo the debt is now triple what it was about 6 years ago and is growing exponentially. I think it was 17 bil and now its close to 60.
Not sure but I m close to the numbers.

Someone is lending because they think they can make it back.



Ukraine's Debt Is Manageable | WSJ | Feb 2010

[cyppok]

Someone is lending because they think they can make it back.



Ukraine's Debt Is Manageable | WSJ | Feb 2010

They are mistaken most of it is foreign denominated any dislocation internationally of its' trade position in Russia where most added value things go and it goes boom.

Ukraine's public debt rises 4.1% in June
(from last year so its over $60 bil probably)

July 23, 2011, 9:11 a.m. | Business — by Interfax-Ukraine
Ukraine's combined state debt (direct and guaranteed) rose 4.1% in June to $60.178 billion, yet another all-time high, the Ukrainian Finance Ministry reported. The debt increased 10.8% in the first six months of the year from $54.297 billion as of January 1.

Ukrainian gross foreign debt at 74% of GDP in first half of 2012

Ukrainian gross foreign debt at 74% of GDP in first half of 2012
Print version
Sept. 18, 2012, 2:06 p.m. | Ukraine — by Interfax-Ukraine

Ukraine had gross foreign debt of $129 billion on July 1 2012, up 2.2% in the first half and reaching 74% of GDP, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has reported.

"The downward trend continues for the debt to GDP ratio from its maximum of almost 90% at the end of 2009. This is thanks to a faster rate of dollar GDP growth in the country compared to borrowing," the NBU said, citing Serhiy Nikolaichuk, the head of the NBU Balance of Payments Analysis and Forecasting Department.

Oh what a difference a year makes. :insane:
Notice the 1 year difference? I know its more than one year july to sep but still.
How long you think this can go on? very curious.
Remember they had a devaluation of 5 hryvnas to the dollar to about 8.3 about five+ years ago.

[Double Edge]

Ukrainian gross foreign debt at 74% of GDP in first half of 2012

Oh what a difference a year makes. :insane:
Notice the 1 year difference? I know its more than one year july to sep but still.
How long you think this can go on? very curious.
Remember they had a devaluation of 5 hryvnas to the dollar to about 8.3 about five+ years ago.

There are other countries that have a debt to GDP ratio far worse than 74% and are still holding on.

UK's is touching 150% and Japan's is nearly 200%.

Not a problem so long as there is growth to pay it back.

Ukraine is not like the PIGS.

Put it this way even if Ukraine goes bankrupt its still not a problem. Think of Iceland.

[cyppok]

you are asking the wrong question. It grew its debt by 100%+ in one year. from 54 to 120

Its' not if it goes bankrupt, but how?...

(The gpd graph you looked at is misleading for a very wide variety of reasons.)

I have no clue how they will go bankrupt. Because the goal of them doing so would be to extract the maximum benefit for the ruling class (this includes all parties opposition etc.)

Devaluation under Yuschenko of 5 to 8.3 was very unexpected. Right now the amount of real estate under water is immense but it does not matter what matters is the flows and those are suffering (import/export).

[Double Edge]

you are asking the wrong question. It grew its debt by 100%+ in one year. from 54 to 120

[Doktor]

At first I thought the GDP got down, but it is the opposite.

cyppok, where you pull those numbers from?

Side note, Ukraine has 500% growth of GDP in the last decade ;)

[cyppok]

At first I thought the GDP got down, but it is the opposite.

cyppok, where you pull those numbers from?

Side note, Ukraine has 500% growth of GDP in the last decade ;)

I linked to them...

Rrright 500% after the double whammy of 91 and 98-2000 when there was a collapse same as in Russia, it is very easy to count only upwards after a severe contraction. Nominally they are doing fabulous...

Double they put on the balance sht about 60 billion they revised it post facto so you get a nice chart, but they did it after 2011 so it was very reckless. It happened in some degree by issuance to refi banks which took the hryvna but kept the offbalance sht dollars they have in London skrwing the central bank in the process.

[Doktor]

I linked to them...

Rrright 500% after the double whammy of 91 and 98-2000 when there was a collapse same as in Russia, it is very easy to count only upwards after a severe contraction. Nominally they are doing fabulous...

Double they put on the balance sht about 60 billion they revised it post facto so you get a nice chart, but they did it after 2011 so it was very reckless. It happened in some degree by issuance to refi banks which took the hryvna but kept the offbalance sht dollars they have in London skrwing the central bank in the process.

No comment

[Double Edge]

Quite crazy isn't it Dok :)

If GDP grows at such a rate then debt will as well. I'm still not convinced that Ukraine's debt is unmanageable. The problem isn't so much debt but when the creditors refuse to lend or will only do so under unacceptable conditions. 2010 was a much harder time to get credit than 2012 or beyond.

[Doktor]

Quite crazy isn't it Dok :)

If GDP grows at such a rate then debt will as well. I'm still not convinced that Ukraine's debt is unmanageable. The problem isn't so much debt but when the creditors refuse to lend or will only do so under unacceptable conditions. 2010 was a much harder time to get credit than 2012 or beyond.

DE,

We have the same graph... GDP

However, what is important is the following...

UKRAINE	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
PUBLIC DEBT/GDP	38,07%	19,73%	11,79%	8,2%	5,72%	25,37%	28,15%	23,60%

Data taken from World Bank and CIA Factbook.

[cyppok]

Dok if the chart is of GDP then it went from 35 to 180 which is 500% or so. If it is of the debt you have to account for 2 devaluations and a transition to foreign denominated debt. Debt was low since it was hryvna denominated, they rolled it over, robbed the purchasing power of savers and started issuing foreign denominated debt.

Not sure if you are making my point or trying to contest it.