Bundeswehr Restructuring

[kato]

Do expect net growth, net loss or net zero from this new revue?

I would expect net zero from it. The focus is on reforming that what's available for higher availability, not really grow it or slim it down. There might be minor "adaptions" as part of that, but nothing of significant size.

Longterm i would expect that the procurement agency - the "Federal Agency for Equipment, IT and Application of the Bundeswehr" (BAAInBw) - will be reformed or at least will have their work processes significantly reshaped sometime over the next 2-3 years. The agency currently has 1700 soldiers and 5100 civilian employees, which includes the six weapons R&D centers as well as the three Navy arsenals. I could very well see those parts (with 5000+ men and women) split off into a separate agency and the remaining procurement part could then see significant growth as part of an effort to improve their processes.

[rj1]

http://twitter.com/tobiaschneider/st...59242786852871

Chief of Germany Army this morning: "The Bundeswehr, and the Army that I have the privilege to lead, is more or less stripped bare. The options that we can offer politicians to support the alliance are extremely limited."

When this crisis is over, there should be high-level talks where certain countries speak frankly and honestly to others.

[kato]

When this crisis is over, there should be high-level talks where certain countries speak frankly and honestly to others.

The translated quote is incomplete. What's relevant is the last sentence of the overall statement:

Wann, wenn nicht jetzt ist der Zeitpunkt, Den Afghanistaneinsatz strukturell und materiell hinter uns zunlassen und uns neu aufzustellen, sonst werden wir unseren verfassungsmässigen Auftrag und unsere Bündnisverpflichtungen nicht mit Aussicht auf Erfolg umsetzen können.

When, if not now, is the time to leave the Afghanistan mission behind us both structurally and by material and restructure, otherwise we will not be able to fulfill our constitutional task and our alliance commitments with a prospect of success.

Basically, Inspector General of the Army Alfons Mais is one of those guys who "dislike" the Bundeswehr being streamlined for expeditionary missions over the last two decades, does not see the structure and material resulting from that as sufficient or worthwhile, and wants the army restructured for what's called in Germany "national and allied defense" instead.
And "what a coincidence" that the Bundeswehr has a target structure in the drawers that needs a political okay within the next couple months to go forward...

[astralis]

so, kato, now that the German military got the spigot of money turned on--

what's highest priority now? what changes, what gets funded?

[Officer of Engineers]

so, kato, now that the German military got the spigot of money turned on--

what's highest priority now? what changes, what gets funded?

Same as every army - put it somewhere where the politicians can't touch it. Decide later what to spend it on.

[kato]

so, kato, now that the German military got the spigot of money turned on--

what's highest priority now? what changes, what gets funded?

There have been suggestions that the 100 billion fund now envisioned is based on a confidential proposal from the Bundeswehr made in October 2021 (in the limbo time before the current government was formed). That proposal was to create a general fund of 102 billion Euro to give secure financing for long-term projects - by decoupling them from the annual procurement budget.

That proposal did come with a list, which mostly outlines four groups of items:

• multinational development projects (FCAS, MGCS, TWISTER, SATOC ...) worth 34 billion Euro
• big-ticket national development and procurement (e.g. Tornado replacement, new corvettes, transport helos) worth 25 billion Euro
• small-ticket national development and procurement with a very long list of projects for a few dozen to hundred million (e.g. upgrades to Patriot) combining to 23 billion Euro
• ammunition (and probably spare parts, POL etc) to fill up the depots to target numbers for 20 billion Euro

The 2+% GDP defense budget envisioned pays by itself primarily for realizing the confidential "Capability Profile 2018", which outlines a transformation of the Bundeswehr until 2032. There have been estimates that realizing those plans would have required 1.6% GDP or about 60 billion Euro annual budget (compared to 50 billion current budget). With the added money it might also be possible to accelerate realization somewhat.

The Inspector General of the Bundeswehr when asked about a larger Bundeswehr already replied that "the target number of 203,000 soldiers stays" - that target number is from the capability profile.

In my opinion it is likely that ammunition orders will come first. Not because it's needed, but because it'd produce a result one can show off within this year already.

[tbm3fan]

So the 100 billion is actually a cap for the year in that the 50 billion Euro budget will be raised to 100 billion euros?

The new 2% of the GDP for defense is to be a constitutional amendment?

There is to be increased cooperation with France on a 5th gen Euro Fighter?

Interest in the F-35 was mentioned while the previous defense minister said it was off the table?

Something about increased acquisition of armed drones?

Does Germany have long range tankers or thinking about them in cooperation with others?

It sounds like German defense policy and military policy have done a 180 since the invasion of Ukraine?

How organized is your Procurement Department for all this?

Last, your Parliament needs to sign off on the budget first. How likely? Also is there not a rule where any 25 million expenditure for Defense needs to be voted on by the Parliament if the rules are followed?

[kato]

So the 100 billion is actually a cap for the year in that the 50 billion Euro budget will be raised to 100 billion euros?

The 100 billion is separate.

Basically, the budget will be raised by about 50% to somewhere around 75 billion or more by 2024, and in addition the Bundeswehr gets a fonds (exact conditions TBD) from which it can fund additional procurement.

In my opinion it's likely that the 100 billion will get a deadline of around 2032 by which it has to be spent, i.e. meaning an additional average 10 billion more for procurement per year.

The new 2% of the GDP for defense is to be a constitutional amendment?

The 100 billion fonds is planned to be done through a constitunional amendment. The raised defence budget will not go into the constitution.

There is to be increased cooperation with France on a 5th gen Euro Fighter?

More like we now have the money to pay for development of FCAS, which is what they were talking about. Also FCAS will skip 5th gen and go straight to 6th.

Interest in the F-35 was mentioned while the previous defense minister said it was off the table?

The new defense minister pretty much started reviewing about every decision by the last one. Hence F-35 is back on the table as a fast solution to buying an aircraft capable of deploying B-61 Mod 12 nuclear gravity bombs.

Something about increased acquisition of armed drones?

This is primarily about arming our Heron TP drones and buying more of them. The move is controversial.

Does Germany have long range tankers or thinking about them in cooperation with others?

Germany has four A330 MRTT (Phenix) which it is pooling into the NATO MMF fleet stationed at Eindhoven in the Netherlands.

The aircraft are subordinated to the EATC European Air Transport Command, which for its member countries keeps an overall fleet of about 200 aircraft available.
With current deliveries this fleet is switched to 24 A330 MRTT, about a dozen other long-range tankers (KC-767 etc), about 140 A400M (of which for about one-quarter tanker kits are boiught) and about 50 other transport/refueling aircraft.

How organized is your Procurement Department for all this?

Supposedly they were in panic after the announcement.

Last, your Parliament needs to sign off on the budget first. How likely?

Fairly good, you just need the governmental majority to sign that off.

For the constitutional change (anchoring the 100-billion instrument in the constitution) they need support from the opposition CDU, both in the lower house and among the states.
The constitutional change is about ensuring the instrument can't just be removed again by the current or a future government with a simple law passed by parliament if they feel like it.

Also is there not a rule where any 25 million expenditure for Defense needs to be voted on by the Parliament if the rules are followed?

Nothing changed there. Parliament (or rather its budget committee and defense committee) will still need to sign off on any project above 25 million Euro.

The 100 billion is not a "spend it as you like" pool. It is a financing tool which can be tapped for procurement projects that are okayed. I.e. the parliament would sign off on a project, but there would be a line in it somewhere that this would not be paid from the defense budget, but from the 100-billion pool instead. This works until the 100 billion are exhausted.

[tbm3fan]

Thanks, Kato.

Wait, didn't I ask something about a 180. I'll just assume that the answer is it should be obvious. You wrote enough as it is...

[Bigfella]

Here is one for Kato. ;)

[kato]

The defense committee of the parliament discussed the 100-billion project for the first time this monday in a special session with Minister of Defense Lambrecht attending. The session was of course classified Secret, so we don't really have any details from that.


One thing that the Ministry of Defense later released is that Lambrecht informed the Defense Committee how the Bundeswehr is planning for immediate procurement in light of known encrusted, slow procurement processes.

Apparently they're planning to make wide use of the exemptions granted specifically by Article 346 (1) TFEU at the EU level:

"any Member State may take such measures as it considers necessary for the protection of the essential interests of its security which are connected with the production of or trade in arms, munitions and war material; such measures shall not adversely affect the conditions of competition in the internal market regarding products which are not intended for specifically military purposes"

In other words they're planning to issue tenders without competition, i.e. buying directly from specific defense industry companies they choose, and they're planning to use EU law to circumvent possible legal action against that.

Due to court rulings on interpretation and application of §346 TFEU this is however effectively restricted to times of crisis mandating such procurement immediately. The government will therefore seek to reform the "regular" procurement processes as well. As a first step within their purview the Ministry of Defense wants to raise the maximum cap for goods that can be bought directly without a tender to 5,000 Euro; currently it's 1,000 Euro. Tenders between 1,000 and 5,000 Euro make up one quarter of the workload for the Procurement Agency.


Projects named to be prioritized in procurement focus on personal protective and auxiliary equipment for individual soldiers, as well as projects named in the Coalition Treaty (Tornado replacement, CH-53G replacement, armed drones are stated explicitly in the press release).

The government plans to have a draft for the 100 billion fund itself entered into legislative process before the end of the month.


The Defense Committee in this session was also informed about additional weapon delivery requests from Ukraine. These are not handled or discussed by parliament, but by the National Security Council (which consists of the Chancellor, eight ministers of relevant federal ministries and - in advisory capacity - the Inspector General of the Bundeswehr along with a few others).

[kato]

• There is a concept for a technology-proof version of Aurora that would essentially be a hypersonic unmanned aircraft, using Eurofighter EJ-200 engines for takeoff and landing and propelling itself to Mach 8-10 using a rocket engine in the air.
• The research grant is basically for taking that technology-proof design and evaluating whether it would be usable for military application in theory. The contract is for an evaluation whether this version of Aurora would be able to operationally carry and use a 1-ton sensor payload as a hypersonic reconnaissance drone.

Polaris Raumflugzeuge got a contract this week to actually build a scale demonstrator for the "rapid deployable reconnaissance system" based upon the paper study they did last year. Scale is not stated explicitly, but the demonstrator will roughly be about the size of a EADS Barracuda - somewhat smaller than e.g. the 1970s Lockheed D-21 drone which to some extent followed a similar approach. It is planned to be ready for a first flight campaign by the end of the year.

[kato]

The Bundeswehr has been planning to replace the Wiesel as a fire support vehicles in infantry battalions for a while, preferably with a Boxer-based solution.

It has apparently now - with funding suddenly available - been decided to simply buy off-the-shelf Boxer CRV modules as built for the Land 400 project for Australia. In fact the prototype possibly to be delivered this year will come off the production line for Australia. In total a production run of 93 vehicles is planned.

In Australian use the Boxer CRV are built as reconnaissance vehicles, with a Rheinmetall Lance turret with 30mm gun. It is planned to only switch the communcation systems to German systems and add on a MELLS (Spike LR) launcher on the turret.

In Bundeswehr "medium infantry" battalions it is planned for the heavy company to hold the necessary assets to augment each (Boxer APC-based) infantry company with a platoon of 4 Boxer CRV for direct fire support and a squad of 2 Boxer JFST for indirect fire support. Currently the companies hold 6 Wiesel with 20mm guns and 6 Wiesel with TOW launchers for this purpose, but the Wiesels have always been more of an impromptu solution from existing stocks, even if they were last upgraded only in 2019.

In Bundeswehr "light infantry" battalions (paratroopers, mountain) the Wiesels - 60 remaining in five heavy companies - will instead be replaced by a new airmobile weapons carrier in the future. They're still at the prototype stage for that.

[Albany Rifles]

Here is one for Kato. ;)

[Albany Rifles]

The defense committee of the parliament discussed the 100-billion project for the first time this monday in a special session with Minister of Defense Lambrecht attending. The session was of course classified Secret, so we don't really have any details from that.


One thing that the Ministry of Defense later released is that Lambrecht informed the Defense Committee how the Bundeswehr is planning for immediate procurement in light of known encrusted, slow procurement processes.

Apparently they're planning to make wide use of the exemptions granted specifically by Article 346 (1) TFEU at the EU level:

"any Member State may take such measures as it considers necessary for the protection of the essential interests of its security which are connected with the production of or trade in arms, munitions and war material; such measures shall not adversely affect the conditions of competition in the internal market regarding products which are not intended for specifically military purposes"

In other words they're planning to issue tenders without competition, i.e. buying directly from specific defense industry companies they choose, and they're planning to use EU law to circumvent possible legal action against that.

Due to court rulings on interpretation and application of §346 TFEU this is however effectively restricted to times of crisis mandating such procurement immediately. The government will therefore seek to reform the "regular" procurement processes as well. As a first step within their purview the Ministry of Defense wants to raise the maximum cap for goods that can be bought directly without a tender to 5,000 Euro; currently it's 1,000 Euro. Tenders between 1,000 and 5,000 Euro make up one quarter of the workload for the Procurement Agency.


Projects named to be prioritized in procurement focus on personal protective and auxiliary equipment for individual soldiers, as well as projects named in the Coalition Treaty (Tornado replacement, CH-53G replacement, armed drones are stated explicitly in the press release).

The government plans to have a draft for the 100 billion fund itself entered into legislative process before the end of the month.


The Defense Committee in this session was also informed about additional weapon delivery requests from Ukraine. These are not handled or discussed by parliament, but by the National Security Council (which consists of the Chancellor, eight ministers of relevant federal ministries and - in advisory capacity - the Inspector General of the Bundeswehr along with a few others).

I don't know why this hasn't come to my mind before but here goes...are there any rules tied to the Euro100 Million...i.e., it has to be spent within the EU?

I ask that cause thinking of the munitions buy. I am thinking of Raytheon specifically along with IAI which produces a metric crap ton of small arms ammo.

Thanks...if you posted something to that it went right by me.