Russian strategy in Central Asia

[cyppok]

That's not the same as that outlandish notion of "Border controls of those whom join transfer to Russian customs". What sort of outlandish reality would lead to Kazakhstan of all people, a nation that has so much to lose from cutting off the Chinese, South Koreans, Turks, US and EU through surrendering its customs? For the 'quality of leadership' provided by Putin or such ****?


China dumping?!?! There's nothing to say here that hasn't been said by far smarter persons than I in the "China Bankrupt" thread, so I anything that I can hope to say on this matter they have already stated. Go back and actually look at what Xinhui and DOR wrote there.


No one is going to allow Russia to get in a position of "Border controls of those whom join transfer to Russian customs" in Central Asia. There is no possible government in Washington DC, Beijing, Europe, or Tokyo that will let Russia have that kind of stranglehold on Central Asia's resources, especially given Russia's own energy resources. Not to mention what the Kazakhs think of Russian control.

about 100k Chinese have moved to Kyrgyzstan most of them work in Markets that they now dominate because of inflow of goods which are between $2-10 billion that are than re-exported into other countries. Once border enforcement flows through and customs do not allow these goods in neighboring countries Kazakhstan and upward that model will collapse.

In Customs it is dominance of the minority ergo if Russia has export duties on Chinese goods but two of the other countries do not then those duties are in effect. Etc... Access to a large market is worth it to have joint control of customs of goods. You have no idea what Kazakhs think of Russian control you are not from there I assume. You are essentially saying you know whats good for someone else you are not omniscient. I on the other hand am just showing you whats there right now. Granted I may exaggerate it a bit or lay it out slightly in the words you may not prefer but arguing with semantics is not the same as with reality.

China is dumping goods to dominate the market that is the reality. The problem is that it was predicated on continued re-export which is now being curtailed, very rapidly.
Nobody forced Customs Union on those countries except themselves and their desires for more growth/revenue/control. They can always get out if they wish. Thus far they have not.

Kazakhstan: Russia Pressing for Clean-Up at China Border Crossing | EurasiaNet.org

Kazakhstan: Russia Worries that Customs Union Outpost is Smugglers

Russia's anxiety is understandable. If everything goes according to plan, as much as 80 percent of the goods that cross the border at Khorgos will be destined for Russia. To make sure it gets its rightful share of revenue, Russia is now even pushing to post its own border officials at Khorgos.

Alexander Korsunov, a press officer at the Customs Union headquarters in Moscow, says the issue, which includes proposals for a joint-border force, will be a central topic of discussion at the Customs Union’s next official meeting at the end of February.

Not sure they got it but they probably will get join-control eventually. The amount of money flowing would be very large in order to jeopardize it.
We shall see though perhaps I am wrong for now. But there is joint control on Belarussian border it will likely be the same in Kazakhstan.

[Odysseus]

Where you see (or rather trying to imply) a “loyalty” of your “allies”, I see venality of governments, or fear of political or economical pressure...

*The "loyalty" of those allies has spanned WWI, WWII and up into the present day. British, Canadain and ofcoarse the French will always be French, even present day Germany. We may not agree on everything, but we do all move in the same direction.;)

Move in the same direction as long as the King is healthy and on his throne, rather than sick and dying in his bed.
Wouldn't know what would happen in that case. If you get my meaning.

[Officer of Engineers]

First of all, it is Her Majesty, the Queen. Charles is not King yet.

2nd of all, the Prime Ministers are all elected, just like the President.

3rd of all, the People are healthy.

[Skywatcher]

about 100k Chinese have moved to Kyrgyzstan most of them work in Markets that they now dominate because of inflow of goods which are between $2-10 billion that are than re-exported into other countries. Once border enforcement flows through and customs do not allow these goods in neighboring countries Kazakhstan and upward that model will collapse.

In Customs it is dominance of the minority ergo if Russia has export duties on Chinese goods but two of the other countries do not then those duties are in effect. Etc... Access to a large market is worth it to have joint control of customs of goods.

And how would Kazakhstan benefit from having access to the Russian market? Most of their exports are fossil fuels and a lot of the manufacturing that they do have is often joint ventures with non-Russians. And what can Russia supply economically that the Kazakhs can't get elsewhere, and often on better terms?

You have no idea what Kazakhs think of Russian control you are not from there I assume. You are essentially saying you know whats good for someone else you are not omniscient. I on the other hand am just showing you whats there right now. Granted I may exaggerate it a bit or lay it out slightly in the words you may not prefer but arguing with semantics is not the same as with reality.

Let's look at history. The Kazakhs fiercely resisted Russian colonization in the 19th century, a major reason for Kazakhstan leading the Soviet Union was Kazakh resentment at large scale ethnic Russian settlement, and Kazakhstan since 1991 has built up numerous economic-political-military ties with regional and global actors.

Kazakhstan is playing off all actors. To allow Russia a direct veto in what comes into Kazakhstan would be a complete repudiation of their Post Cold War foreign policy.

You're just showing my some fanboi fantasy. It's the logical equivalent of arguing that since Cambodia is worried about Thailand's UAVs, they will hand over control of their airspace to the Vietnamese.

China is dumping goods to dominate the market that is the reality. The problem is that it was predicated on continued re-export which is now being curtailed, very rapidly.

Honestly, I don't think you know what 'dumping' means.

Kazakhstan: Russia Pressing for Clean-Up at China Border Crossing | EurasiaNet.org

Kazakhstan: Russia Worries that Customs Union Outpost is Smugglers

Not sure they got it but they probably will get join-control eventually. The amount of money flowing would be very large in order to jeopardize it.
We shall see though perhaps I am wrong for now. But there is joint control on Belarussian border it will likely be the same in Kazakhstan.

Your own link (the second one) says this:

A new bill, presently under consideration in Kazakhstan’s parliament, would, if adopted in its present form, make it easier for temporary foreign workers to be employed in the SEZ. Russia is uncomfortable with this idea. It wants a clause added to the Customs Union regulations specifying that at least 50 percent of the value of such “Made in Kazakhstan” goods must be created on Kazakh soil. Kazakhstan wants this reduced to 30 percent.

Arguably, though, Russia’s revenue-related pressure is less of an immediate problem for Kazakhstan that is own slow progress in building the required infrastructure.

A half-finished new checkpoint is all that has been built so far at the International Center of Boundary Cooperation at Khorgos. Eventually, the $2.5 billion project is supposed to include a trading exhibition zone, seven high-rise hotels, an airport, a tourism and entertainment zone, and an ethnographic park. China finished its own, much larger, International Center of Boundary Cooperation several years ago. On April 1, the two countries are scheduled to begin a new four-lane bridge crossing the river that marks the border.

The hope is that, from July 1, Chinese trucks will be able to cross the bridge, and transfer their goods to Kazakh, Russian, or Belarusian trucks, without drivers from either side needing a visa. Ideally, Kazakh or Customs Union officials will be able to check goods and charge duty at the same time as they are being transferred between trucks at the warehouse. If this succeeds, a truck will be able to make a return journey in just one day.

And the first one is talking about combating smuggling (which may soon involve the Russian mafia. Good luck in stopping them). That's a cosmic leap of logic to assume that Russia will get "Border controls of those whom join transfer to Russian customs".

[cyppok]

And how would Kazakhstan benefit from having access to the Russian market? Most of their exports are fossil fuels and a lot of the manufacturing that they do have is often joint ventures with non-Russians. And what can Russia supply economically that the Kazakhs can't get elsewhere, and often on better terms?

Market access lots of countries want it but few give it. China wants market access but really doesn't give it in turn, you will be met with administrative malaise and other aspects.

Kazakhstan exports a lot of grain, and some other added value products. Having more than one outlet is always good to have even if your competing with them.

_____________________________
I did mention that perhaps I went a bit ahead but the reality is they are pushing for joint-border control and they will get it. The law to designate Kazakh production threshold from 50% to 30% simply shows that skirting the customs control is no longer an external but internal matter. Ergo what comes in has to conform to customs barriers.

Long term if re-exportation occurs you can always cut it to implode those whom are most economically tied into it.

You make it seem like the customs union does not exist. While it does exist there is no control at all how border enforcement occurs by the states within it?

Kazakhstan joined it because integration is beneficial. It will gain far more than it will loose in terms of political clout and otherwise. But nothing is free... you cannot get market access and borderless transactions without giving up something in return. You make it seem like everything is forever, they can always leave if they wish.

Russia will get border controls because they got them in Belarus (ergo Joint-Border controls in Belarus which means enforcement of the rules that were established in Customs Union are enfroced.) Either they push through that enforcement or they can also leave. The problem is that if dependency is built up and then imploded Kazakhstan would be very interested to keep it going and joint border control will happen otherwise the benefit flow will cease.