What would a Taiwan invasion scenario involving conventional weaponry look like?

[Mithridates]

Since the Communist Party’s legitimacy is based in part on a pledge to “unify” China, its hold on the country’s 1.4 billion people could weaken if it allowed Taiwan to become an independent country. And while any invasion even of outlying islands carries the risks of economic sanctions or a destabilizing conflict, threats issued in state-run media allow Beijing to appeal to a domestic audience and deter Taiwan at the same time.

The mantra is BS on on wheels. Its legitimacy is based on its ability to crush any opposition to its policies ruthlessly, up to and including running them over with tanks. Whatever foreign policy it chooses to set is holy writ to the populace. Or else. The principal risk comes from senior party members who use Taiwanese independence as a wedge to lever themselves into power at the sitting dictator's expense. But even that would require a critical mass of disaffected senior people in key positions with the security services who are worked up enough to turf the current guy and resign themselves to the uncertain aftermath of even a successful coup. Because coups are generally the kick-off whistle for a mad scramble for power. At then end of which many of the plotters could end up dead at the hands of their coup plotter associates. Each of whom is making his bid for supreme power.

[Double Edge]

A different idea from the FT. Coercion to panic the Taipei govt as opposed to a full blown invasion.

[m a x]

Pew Research has come up with Historic High Unfavorable Estimates for China -- https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2...many-countries . Along with the efforts of Pompeo's administration to satanize Chinese international collaboration around the Globe, this tendency actually leaves the Dragon with nothing to loose from showing its authoritarian character once again to the World. Moreover it makes Chinese look weaker, provided they do not demonstrate their authority, although humanitarian aspects and the negative perspective of Donald Trump for the upcoming elections are not to be ignored. Whoever tend to believe that from Washington are ready to start another WW because of Taiwan, the initiated selling of high-tech weaponry to the Taiwanese government seems to refute this. It is more likely the USA try to strengthen their Second Cold War scenario against the Asian Powers with heavier stance of embracing Europe and wherever there are others against them

[Double Edge]

It is more likely the USA try to strengthen their Second Cold War scenario against the Asian Powers with heavier stance of embracing Europe and wherever there are others against them

Europe is embracing the Indo Pacific. Germany recently joined France.

Germany Joins the ‘Indo-Pacific’ Club | The Diplomat | Sept 03 2020

The German push punctuates the growing mood of distemper toward China throughout Europe, stemming from Beijing’s recent crackdown in Hong Kong, its harsh treatment of the Uyghurs in the Xinjiang region of western China, and the increasingly coercive methods it has used to quell opposition to Chinese policies.

The full-bore diplomatic and state media assault that greeted this week’s visit to Taiwan of Czechia’s Senate President Milos Vystrčil, whom the CCP’s tabloid mouthpiece Global Times denounced as a “political hooligan” who was “trampling on diplomatic civilization,” is likely to undermine China’s attempts at European damage control.

As French President Emanuel Macron declared during a European Council meeting in March last year, “the time of European naiveté [towards China] is over.”

The Czech Senate President's trip to Taiwan is appreciated.

[Double Edge]

Here's Ian Easton. He thinks it will be harder to prevent a straits crisis because the CCP will draw the lesson that the world didn't do a whole lot about Xianjiang and HK

[Oracle]

[Mithridates]

Given the recent saber-rattling by the PLAAF, it would be interesting to know whether or not the Taiwanese are finally starting to take the possibility of an invasion seriously. And by seriously, I mean begin to spend real money on defense instead of frittering it away on social spending and green initiatives.

[Officer of Engineers]

That would be on the Americans rather than Taipei. If DC offers up the F-35, you can bet Taipei will find the money somewhere to buy them. In fact, I cannot think of one sale that Taiwan turned down.