The Korean Dilemma

[Double Edge]

I know it's propaganda... I was wondering whether NK is implying with the word "verified" that they have working nuclear weapons, or if they mean that other powers have "recognized" NK as a nuclear power.

KJU needs that meet even if he gets nothing out of it

Intricate choreography

[astralis]

i suspect Chinese pressure. the words are empty but it gives something that Kim can tell Xi that he's not rocking the boat.

Chinese like it too because it gives them a chip in the ongoing trade negotiations/tariff dispute at no cost to them.

[Officer of Engineers]

i suspect Chinese pressure. the words are empty but it gives something that Kim can tell Xi that he's not rocking the boat.

KJU is certainly not KJI. The Chinese offerred their nuclear umbrella, something they refused to do to Pakistani pleas, and KJI turned the Chinese down cold.

This leads me to question just how secured is KJU from inside enemies.

[TopHatter]

What in the hell just happened? Joe, I don't think sanctions are biting the upper elites of NKorea, and they don't care for the poor lot. Something else is at play here. The Colonel is hiding something.

They're biting enough, or at least the writing is on the wall that they're going to start biting sooner rather than later.

Also what Astralis said: Immense Chinese pressure. Fat Boy was told to straighten up and fly right during his recent choo-choo-train trip to the PRC.

[Double Edge]

I get the impression that KJI's henchmen were not KJU's henchmen (ie, the pro-Chinese faction) and given the mafia style government of North Korea, there can only be one top dog. So, he slaughter those who stood in his way. That didn't do the Chinese any favour as they were counting on a more stable North Korea. Instead, North Korea is more unsecured than before, now with a belicose US President willing to goto war.

This leads me to question just how secured is KJU from inside enemies.

Safer isn't it ? he already purged the china faction and any other faction that looked ever so slightly suspicious.

The man had his half brother killed with VX.

Funny thing about that is this half brother was a legitimate son of KJI, KJU is not..

KJU's mother is Japanese. Can't let the locals know that. Wouldn't go down well.

[Officer of Engineers]

Safer isn't it ?

Corps commanders don't become corps commanders because they're chicken shit.

[Ironduke]

Funny thing about that is this half brother was a legitimate son of KJI, KJU is not..

KJU's mother is Japanese. Can't let the locals know that. Wouldn't go down well.

The son of the concubine killed the trueborn heir. How very Ottoman-Game of Thrones of him.

South Korea stops border propaganda broadcasts ahead of key summit with North

At midnight local time, the sound of propaganda and pop music from the South Korean side of the border stopped.

South Korea's defense ministry announced the decision to switch off the loudspeakers' output of news, music and criticism of the North for the first time in two years, hoping it: "Will lead both Koreas to stop mutual criticism and propaganda against each other and also contribute in creating peace and a new beginning."

At the weekend, the North announced it had no further need for nuclear tests, its test site or intercontinental missile launches. However, no mention was made of its stored nuclear materials and equipment.

The timing of the announcement, just days before the first meeting between the two sides in a decade was "a green light that improves the prospect of success of the inter-Korea and North-US summits," South Korea's Jae-in said on Monday.

http://www.dw.com/en/south-korea-sto...rth/a-43491480

[Double Edge]

KJU is certainly not KJI. The Chinese offerred their nuclear umbrella, something they refused to do to Pakistani pleas, and KJI turned the Chinese down cold.

Juche

Juche isn't self-reliance, its self determination, beg, borrow, steal from where ever but in the end retain your own power of decision. How a small state can have power of a much larger state.

When did China make this offer. The Norks joined the NPT in 1984, by '86 had their first reactor and three years later a reprocessing facility. The sum total of electricity generated by North Korean nuclear reactors totals no more than 23 days. So its was for nukes from the get go.

With the 2006 nuke test, the North Korean ambassador gave the Chinese only 20 minutes notice (!)

KJU has done similar with missile tests already

Despite these frustrations the Chinese still persevere and plod along with their relationship

KJU didn't have control of the narrative. It was a Chinese narrative. That in itself speaks volume of who was in charge.

Perhaps not but is it tactical.

Juche again

No, I think YOU just figured it out. The NKs have been burned before. This time, it's Cash Up Front. That's their catch.

It's happened before. In 2000. Kim dae jung was desperate to go to pyongyang and the price was $500 million deposited in KJI's account in Macau. After that he was free to come over

Interesting talk on history of North Korea & China relationship by Jonathan Pollack

https://youtu.be/lS3Iu27yiTQ

[Officer of Engineers]

When did China make this offer. The Norks joined the NPT in 1984, by '86 had their first reactor and three years later a reprocessing facility. The sum total of electricity generated by North Korean nuclear reactors totals no more than 23 days. So its was for nukes from the get go.

When the NKs withdrew from the NPT.

Despite these frustrations the Chinese still persevere and plod along with their relationship

Mainly because KJI could keep the DPRK together.

Perhaps not but is it tactical.

Juche again

I don't think so. Again, I have not seen this many show trials since the days of the Chinese Great Proliteriate Cultural Revolution. You don't have this many show trials unless you want to show people you have power. People with real power don't need show trials. KJU's father and grandfather just make people disappear.

[Double Edge]

When the NKs withdrew from the NPT.

ok so KJI said nothing doing we're making our own.

Pollack said KIS was mightily impressed with how quickly the imperial Japanese caved after Hiroshima & Nagasaki. Getting nukes for NK is a KIS thing, son & grandfather are just carrying out that ambition.

The Soviets wouldn't trust them with nukes, Gorbachev insisted they sign the NPT. There is no known Chinese assistance here either. So NK pretty much put it together from info they got when they joined the NPT. Calder Hall, UK was their prototype design. They already had the benefit of working with the Russians earlier when atomic research was more open

I can't figure out what Trump & Kim are going to talk about. Denuclearisation in a NK context implies withdrawing US nuclear support for SK & Japan. That umbrella was to counter the soviets. They're not there now.

Is it conceivable the US could withdraw this nuke umbrella over SK & Japan ? even if they do that US conventional weapons and support are more important. So this means a dismantling of the defense treaty between the US & SK/ Japan. Can't see that happening.

So all you get is a freeze on future testing & missile launches in exchange for hard cash. NK holds on to already developed nukes unless there are other chips to bargain with

US forces in the region can stay put. They don't matter for this meet up

Mainly because KJI could keep the DPRK together.

Yes, but we're not in 1990 any longer. The Chinese have secured the border much better now.

I don't think so. Again, I have not seen this many show trials since the days of the Chinese Great Proliteriate Cultural Revolution. You don't have this many show trials unless you want to show people you have power. People with real power don't need show trials. KJU's father and grandfather just make people disappear.

I don't follow what you mean by show trials ?

[Officer of Engineers]

Yes, but we're not in 1990 any longer. The Chinese have secured the border much better now.

Look at the criminal drug trade. Big time leakage is still going on.

I don't follow what you mean by show trials ?

KJU's ex-girlfriend was machine-gunned. His uncle's trial was put on TV. So did umpteen generals. In the past, they died in accidents or illnesses or just never heard from again.

[Double Edge]

Look at the criminal drug trade. Big time leakage is still going on.

of course, which border guard could resist the extra money on the side. The trick is to transfer them each year. If they can do that less chance to make connections with the other side. More potent than drugs is South Korean soap operas. Death penalty for that but it doesn't seem to be enforced. Playing music across the border isn't going to do much. CD's or thumb drives that can reach anywhere in the country.

This is different to a refugee situation though.

I don't think so. Again, I have not seen this many show trials since the days of the Chinese Great Proliteriate Cultural Revolution. You don't have this many show trials unless you want to show people you have power. People with real power don't need show trials. KJU's father and grandfather just make people disappear.

KJI's apprenticeship started in the '70s and took over in '94

No such luxury for KJU that has to hit the ground running, make an impression and consolidate

He may appear weaker than his father but does that mean he is weak ? You could very well say the same about Xi

You said at the time KJU stepped in, you didn't expect him to last more than three years, some family faction would take over. People didn't give KJU much of a chance at the time. He was green and the job was tough

Well, he's made it so far but others have been less fortunate

[Officer of Engineers]

This is different to a refugee situation though.

The point is that you cannot stop the leakage. The DPRK-PRC border is not a DMZ.

You said at the time KJU stepped in, you didn't expect him to last more than three years, some family faction would take over. People didn't give KJU much of a chance at the time. He was green and the job was tough

The Kingmakers made their move. And they're now demanding payback. They want their money and KJU now has gone begging to the Chinese and a grand bargin sale to the Americans. The Chinese at least before continued to make money for the elite. No longer.

[Double Edge]

The Kingmakers made their move. And they're now demanding payback. They want their money and KJU now has gone begging to the Chinese and a grand bargin sale to the Americans. The Chinese at least before continued to make money for the elite. No longer.

So for the first time the Chinese are putting the squeeze on NK. What is their motivation ?

I'm thinking its less to do with gaining concessions from any trade war Trump might impose. That they can counter in other ways

What if there is a chance here to defuse the situation. They want Kim to work out some deal that will reduce uncertainty

[Officer of Engineers]

So for the first time the Chinese are putting the squeeze on NK. What is their motivation ?

I think for the first time, the Chinese are speaking with a united voice under Xi. Xi just got to be President for Life, meaning that he no longer has to fear someone new coming along to undo his work. He no longer has to make deals with the pro-Kim gang for their support that he deemed necessary. It's especially telling that KJU visited not long after Xi's cornation.