The Korean Dilemma

[Officer of Engineers]

How do you rate Trump's intellect?

Sorry, you just reminded me of this. Trump is no intellect, ie he is not a well read man but under-estimate him at your peril.

[hboGYT]

Cut off his rice shipments would be the most obvious and there are two Chinese armies on warfooting on the border.

Why was this not threatened when KJU were executing pro-Chinese officials?

[Double Edge]

I wonder how much this meeting was helped by Trumpkins announcement of a trade war with China?

Am starting to think Kim going over Xi's head to have a meet with Trump without Xi in the loop was the last straw.

[Ironduke]

From The Diplomat, more here: https://thediplomat.com/2018/03/what...beijing-means/

What the Arrival of North Korea's ‘Special Train’ in Beijing Means

Despite the mystery, the apparent North Korean visit sends a clear signal about China’s role on the peninsula.

On March 26, a “special train,” which had been used by Kim Jong-il for his last visit to China in May 2011, arrived in Beijing. Also referred to as the “No. 1 train,” the train had been used frequently by Kim Jong-un’s father to visit foreign countries, as Kim Jong-il was allegedly afraid to travel via airplane for security reasons.

Although the identity of the individuals who arrived on the train is unclear, judging from the fact that the envoy entered Diaoyutai, a Chinese government-owned facility which greets state guests, the North Korean delegation must have involved some high-level officials, or even Kim Jong-un himself.

Sending a North Korean delegation to China at this moment, when summit meetings with South Korea and the United States are being planned, has much significance. China’s relationship with North Korea had severely deteriorated since the death of Kim Jong-il. In fact, not one summit meeting between China and North Korea had been held since Kim Jong-un assumed leadership in December 2011.

More recently, as China stood with the global community in its attitude toward North Korea’s nuclear capabilities and actively participated in economic sanctions, the special “blood alliance” between North Korea and China seemed to becoming obsolete. Although more than 90 percent of North Korea’s trade continues to be done with China, according to research done by the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA), and China still has not cut petroleum supplies to North Korea, China’s political ties with North Korea seemed to be wavering.

Even when Kim Jong-un made the surprise decision to meet with South Korean envoys in early March, and summit meetings with the United States and South Korea were discussed, talks with China were not on the docket.

The current visit to China, therefore, is significant regardless of who is in the delegation. It shows that Kim acknowledges China’s role in the peninsula ahead of summit meetings with the United States and South Korea in terms of scheduling.

Moreover, the unexpected visit to China also has a striking similarity to events in 2000, when Kim Jong-il visited Beijing just before he held summit meetings with South Korea. At the time, it was Kim Jong-il’s first known trip abroad in decades. The timing allowed North Korea to hold summit meetings with China ahead of the planned meeting with South Korea, showing Pyongyang’s preferential treatment of Beijing. If history is now repeating itself, it signifies that North Korea’s attitude toward China has not wavered despite the apparent weakening alliance.

It may be premature to expect North Korea to reach final reconciliation with the United States and South Korea in the talks to come. However, the apparently rapid movement toward rapprochement North Korea has shown in the past few weeks, with China on the outside looking in, must have worried Chinese and North Korean officials alike. The former would fear being left out and the latter would fear instigating such worries from China. Although China has actively participated in the recent United Nations sanctions against North Korea, it is still Pyongyang’s biggest trading partner and investor. If North Korea mistakenly shows an intention to completely distance itself from China and side with the United States, China will not have an incentive to continue to act as a crucial trade partner. Considering North Korea’s excessive economic dependency on China, such a contingency would likely bring down the Kim regime.

[Officer of Engineers]

Why was this not threatened when KJU were executing pro-Chinese officials?

That fight can be best described as a gang war. The pro-Chinese faction did not have their people or their country in their hearts. It's that the Chinese was enabling them to get richer. It wasn't worth it to the Chinese to come to their rescue.

[Gun Grape]

Gah, I can't imagine a worst posting. Greenland would be more cozy.

The GS likes the women there.

This would be a lose/lose proposition

He has a hot sister and a hot wife. Figure that in 6 weeks time one of two things would happen

1. I would be force fed AA gun bullets at a rapid rate. Not good for me

2. I would be in charge of the country. Do you really want me to have nukes?

[Double Edge]

Understanding and Shaping the Ongoing Korea Crisis | RAND (podcast) | Mar 28 2018

Bruce Bennet gives a talk here. Very clear & interesting. Was quite amazed to learn that Kim has indirectly threatened the Chinese with missile attacks.

[Skywatcher]

Understanding and Shaping the Ongoing Korea Crisis | RAND (podcast) | Mar 28 2018

Bruce Bennet gives a talk here. Very clear & interesting. Was quite amazed to learn that Kim has indirectly threatened the Chinese with missile attacks.

That's one of the reasons why that 'leaked' Chinese papers about a nuclear freeze and a guarantee to North Korea was bogus (or at least doctored). No way Beijing is going to transfer any sort of missile or even long range rocket technology to Pyongyang.

[Ironduke]

This would be a lose/lose proposition

He has a hot sister and a hot wife. Figure that in 6 weeks time one of two things would happen

1. I would be force fed AA gun bullets at a rapid rate. Not good for me

2. I would be in charge of the country. Do you really want me to have nukes?

Kim Jong-gun for Supreme Leader 2018.

The new national anthem: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_8IXx4tsus

[Ironduke]

http://abcnews.go.com/International/...ry?id=54173143

South Korea's K-pop stars surprised by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's appearance at performance

A day after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un made a surprise appearance at a performance by South Korean pop stars in the North Korean capital, South Korea was still digesting the rare instance of cultural diplomacy.

Kim and his wife, Ri Sol Ju, attended a concert by South Korean musicians in Pyongyang.

Members of Red Velvet, one of South Korea's top K-pop groups, sang their hits "Bad Boy" and "Red Flavor."

“There were more applause than we expected so we could relax and continue with our performance,” Yeri, a member of Red Velvet, told South Korean reporters after the concert.

Reporters had originally planned to cover the event but were blocked from entering the venue over security concerns. Only one cameraman was allowed into the concert hall while everyone else had to watch the event on a television screen inside a backstage makeup room which reporters fiercely opposed.

[Double Edge]

That's one of the reasons why that 'leaked' Chinese papers about a nuclear freeze and a guarantee to North Korea was bogus (or at least doctored).

Not famiiliar with the above

No way Beijing is going to transfer any sort of missile or even long range rocket technology to Pyongyang.

What explains Kim's animosity to China ? Fear of a coup ?

His father didn't have such a problem. Kim only showed up in 2011

NK military not to approach the Chinese military
NK military not to exercise with the Chinese military
NK military not to talk to the Chinese military

So much for being allies

[Double Edge]

Why did Kim meet with Xi

We've had the Trump did it, then the Xi did it, now here is the Kim did it explanation. Probably due to sanctions pressure.

I thought Xi pressured Kim into coming over. Thing is last time Xi tried pressure he got a subtle hint how his country could become a target. So what happened here...quest for strategic autonomy eh

Is a kowtow happening here or not. He goes over to keep China in the loop, inform Xi and seek blessing. For what ? to get leverage over Trump. Kim isn't offering any tribute

This throws the China has influence over Kim idea up in the air again..they do but they've been underplaying it for good reason i think so as not to provoke him into something rash.

Seems like everybody wants to meet the young general

Kim goes to China | IE | Apr 03 2018

North Korean leader’s Beijing visit, diplomatic detente with Washington can be seen as a part of the quest for strategic autonomy.

Korea has long been called a shrimp among whales. Caught between China, Japan, Russia and America, the Korean Peninsula has been a plaything of the great powers. But the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and the South Korean president Moon Jae-in have shown how smart shrimps can occasionally get the better of the whales. Since the beginning of this year, Kim and Moon have repeatedly surprised the world with their diplomacy across the divided peninsula.

Consider, for example, Kim’s visit to China last week. It was Kim’s first trip abroad since he took charge of the nation in 2011. Coming a few days after the plans for Kim’s summit with US President Donald Trump were announced, Kim’s talks with President Xi Jinping were widely seen as the affirmation of China’s central role in the Korean Peninsula.

While that proposition is real and rooted in geography and history, Kim’s visit could also be interpreted as a part of the North Korean leader’s quest for “strategic autonomy” from Beijing. Reports suggest that it was at Kim’s initiative that the visit was set up. It was Kim who decided that the time has come to end the frosty relations with Xi. Kim went to Beijing after demonstrating that he is capable of standing up to the world, has complete control over his system, and can deal with America on his own.

Until now, the conventional wisdom has been that the key to unlocking the doors for Korean peace was with Beijing. Thanks to the boldness of Kim and Trump, the focus has now shifted to potential breakthroughs in the direct negotiation between Washington and Pyongyang. While China will always exercise considerable influence over the Koreas, for now, it is Kim driving the process.

Kim did not go to Beijing to seek Xi’s “permission” to talk to Trump. He went there to “inform” Xi of his decision, “promise” to keep China in the loop and “seek” the Chinese leader’s blessings. After having long called for direct talks between the US and North Korea, Xi could not have said “no”, at least for the moment. Getting formal support from Xi, to be sure further improves Kim’s leverage with Trump.

If Kim has found a way to generate political space vis a vis Beijing, Moon has done much the same with Washington. Defying the dominant view in Washington, Moon persisted with his outreach to Kim. Even as he opened up to the North, Moon was careful to keep the Trump administration on his side.

Meanwhile, all the major powers are scrambling to respond to the Kim-Moon diplomacy by checking out each other bilaterally. Having hosted Kim, Xi was quick to send out a special envoy to South Korea. China has probably most to lose if North Korea moves either closer to the US or triggers a regional war. Given the unpredictability of both Trump and Kim, Xi stares at a very disconcerting geopolitical moment in his front yard.

The Korean Peninsula is also Tokyo’s front yard and any big change there profoundly affects Japan’s security. Surprised by the Korean manoeuvre in Washington, Japan fears that a deal between Kim and Trump would weaken its alliance with America and leave it exposed. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who has been pushing for a hard line against North Korea, is now looking for a summit with Kim sometime in June. Before Trump’s talks with Beijing, Abe will also travel to Washington.

Like China and Japan, Russia, too, will be concerned at the potential entente between Washington and Pyongyang and the consequential loss of influence in the peninsula. Kim is surely aware of this and could be drawing Putin into a separate summit in the coming weeks.

Sceptics have good reasons to fear that the current high-stakes diplomatic poker could end up in a disaster. The very personal traits of Kim and Trump that raised hopes could also result in a quick breakdown and rapid escalation to a war. Even if the two leaders hold steady, the issues at hand — peace and denuclearisation — are so hard to work through.

While the dangers are real, Trump and Kim have many incentives to make their engagement a success. For Kim, a successful deal would liberate him from various sanctions and open the door for regime security and national economic renewal. For Trump, a success in the peninsula could give a massive boost to this political standing at home. Even more important, it could reinforce America’s position as the real arbiter of peace in the region and limit fears of Beijing replacing Washington as the hegemon in East Asia.

What does this all mean for India? Two themes stand out. First, India should stop being a passive observer of the Korean geopolitical theatre. While Delhi is in no position to influence the outcomes in the current diplomacy, a more active engagement with the leadership of the two Koreas would better prepare India for potential historic changes in the region.

Second is the importance of effective neighbourhood diplomacy. Kim and Moon have shown that relaxation of tensions between North and South can give both of them a greater say in regional affairs. If it makes creative moves in the neighbourhood, Delhi could find it a bit easier to cope with the penetration of rival powers into the Subcontinent.

The writer is director, Carnegie India, Delhi and contributing editor on foreign affair for The Indian Express

[Officer of Engineers]

Does not jive with the facts.

First, this was an "unofficial visit," meaning the North Koreans didn't have time to propagandize this visit.
2nd, it was kept secret until KJU left, meaning that KJU was not allowed to play to the public eye, ie propaganda, and no arrangements to meet with NK's other ally, Russia.
3rd, Chinese TV showed him learning Chinese economic lessons from Xi.

[Officer of Engineers]

What explains Kim's animosity to China ? Fear of a coup ?

Started with his grandfather. Great Leader was sidelined during the Korean War with all political and military decisions made by the Chinese. This is to the point that all references to Chinese intervention in the Korean War has been erased from the DPRK history books and Chinese War Graves were deliberately ill maintained and blocked from access to the point that they're no longer recognizeable nor accessible.

NK military not to approach the Chinese military
NK military not to exercise with the Chinese military
NK military not to talk to the Chinese military

So much for being allies

Given the disparity between the two militaries, any such collaboration would inevitably be a Chinese command, ie KJU would be stripped of his military power base.

[Double Edge]

Started with his grandfather. Great Leader was sidelined during the Korean War with all political and military decisions made by the Chinese. This is to the point that all references to Chinese intervention in the Korean War has been erased from the DPRK history books and Chinese War Graves were deliberately ill maintained and blocked from access to the point that they're no longer recognizeable nor accessible.

Fine, but father and grandfather did not have a problem with meeting with Chinese leaders did they ? and they would have bigger reasons not to as they remember that war

All changes when Kim takes over. Why is the present stance so antagonistic. There hasn't been any major development after the father passed away and son took over.

Given the disparity between the two militaries, any such collaboration would inevitably be a Chinese command, ie KJU would be stripped of his military power base.

yes, this could lead to an erosion of loyalty and China having influence.

Does not jive with the facts.

First, this was an "unofficial visit," meaning the North Koreans didn't have time to propagandize this visit.
2nd, it was kept secret until KJU left, meaning that KJU was not allowed to play to the public eye, ie propaganda, and no arrangements to meet with NK's other ally, Russia.
3rd, Chinese TV showed him learning Chinese economic lessons from Xi.

Could Kim have wanted it to be that way. Unofficial and secret. Given the animosity maybe that is to be expected. It means he was unsure of the Chinese reception or its outcome. Then again he'd never go unless he knew something was to be had and he got it, Xi's support, at least for now.

Am going with the Kim is an independent actor play here