Greetings, and welcome to the World Affairs Board!
The World Affairs Board is the premier forum for the discussion of the pressing geopolitical issues of our time. Topics include military and defense developments, international terrorism, insurgency & COIN doctrine, international security and policing, weapons proliferation, and military technological development.
Our membership includes many from military, defense, academic, and government backgrounds with expert knowledge on a wide range of topics. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so why not register a World Affairs Board account and join our community today?
I don't think so. KJU does not trust his corps commanders with nukes and therefore already store his nukes in component form just in case anyone gets any ideas. He has to put them together first and that takes time, time he may not have.
So if he can't actually use his nukes, what's his play? Tell the DMZ to hold on tight even if encircled, and wait for a nuke to drop in hopefully a few days?
If the US is hitting his nuke infrastructure, how can he even getting the weapons assembled?
The KPA are Soviet/Russian/Chinese influenced with 10% of their forces on warfooting at any given time (not so with current nukes at the moment for a variety of reasons). They're reliant on a crisis build up to give them forewarning to mobilize their forces. The Chinese had gotten theirs down to 2 hours to mate warhead to missiles. So, if the NKs got their act together (read not now they don't), then they could in theory put together a nuke in a matter of hours.
The KPA are Soviet/Russian/Chinese influenced with 10% of their forces on warfooting at any given time (not so with current nukes at the moment for a variety of reasons). They're reliant on a crisis build up to give them forewarning to mobilize their forces. The Chinese had gotten theirs down to 2 hours to mate warhead to missiles. So, if the NKs got their act together (read not now they don't), then they could in theory put together a nuke in a matter of hours.
So bottom line in case of full scale SK invasion look for Kim to use nukes within first 24 hours?
As of right now, I don't expect any use of nukes. All KJU got right now are terror weapons. The KPA has not been seen drilling on how to deliver nukes. So, it is not within a military setting that the nukes will be deliver but via a terror method. What that means I do not currently know but as of today, no ICBM is going to hit the US conventional or otherwise, mainly because the KPA has not been drilling on how to launch rockets under wartime conditions.
That may change in the future but as of right now, his nukes are for show, not for use.
As of right now, I don't expect any use of nukes. All KJU got right now are terror weapons. The KPA has not been seen drilling on how to deliver nukes. So, it is not within a military setting that the nukes will be deliver but via a terror method. What that means I do not currently know but as of today, no ICBM is going to hit the US conventional or otherwise, mainly because the KPA has not been drilling on how to launch rockets under wartime conditions.
That may change in the future but as of right now, his nukes are for show, not for use.
Do we actually know if he has a warhead that could be mounted on a SRBM?
If there are refugee flows moving toward ROK forces, could they get one delivered as a suicide car bomb?
The KPA has not developed an accurate re-entry vehicle for nukes. Terror delivery methods maybe KJU's only reliable delivery means but I doubt they will try to smuggle it through with the flow of refugees. The Military Police would be searching every vehicle that would go through them.
The KPA has not developed an accurate re-entry vehicle for nukes. Terror delivery methods maybe KJU's only reliable delivery means but I doubt they will try to smuggle it through with the flow of refugees. The Military Police would be searching every vehicle that would go through them.
They might use a smuggler's route or try via sea.
Could they do any significant damage if they detonate it at the first check point?
As of right now, I don't expect any use of nukes. All KJU got right now are terror weapons. The KPA has not been seen drilling on how to deliver nukes. So, it is not within a military setting that the nukes will be deliver but via a terror method. What that means I do not currently know but as of today, no ICBM is going to hit the US conventional or otherwise, mainly because the KPA has not been drilling on how to launch rockets under wartime conditions.
That may change in the future but as of right now, his nukes are for show, not for use.
What about bio and chemical weapons ?
NK's plan is take Seoul in 3 days and the peninsula in 7
You said he has terror weapons. Imagine the impact in a population center with chems.
Straight HE would inflict more damage and casualties. The main effect of terror weapons is panic but you're already talking about a population at war. Panic would already be there before the first biochem attack.
Didn't think Saddam used any chems in 2003. Maybe you are referring to earlier attacks on his people. eg. Halabja in 1988
There is no guarantee KJU won't use any chems. A complicating factor ?
The point about biochems is that it takes days of bombardment to have a noticeable effect. KJU doesn't have days of bombardment. He has at best a few hours.
KJU doesn't have days of bombardment. He has at best a few hours.
With fixed artillery pieces. What about mobile launchers. How many rockets can rain down on Seoul before they are neutralised. Can THAAD handle the barrage
Tweet
Comment