The heat is turning up in the Diaoyutai / Senkaku Isles...

[Firestorm]

What makes you so sure what the size of the conflict will be? I suppose the conflicting parties will agree on the rules of engagement guaranteeing no assets, territory or air space of other parties will be used in the conflict. The honest truth is noone really knows which way things would go should the first shot be fired, and by the way, you don't need nukes nowadays to waste each other.

The only countries which have a stake in this dispute are China, Japan and Taiwan. The islands are located in the East China sea between the three countries. I see no conceivable scenario where the airspace or territory of Vietnam, Philippines and especially India would be violated during a slugfest between the PRC, ROC and Japan. None of them have an interest in fighting with too many countries at the same time.

[JAD_333]

What i don't understand though is how can you confirm 'visually and by photographs ... .... ...as whether the radar was directed their way'

You can't. I suspect it was a misstatement. But you can record "painting" and it's done all the time.

The article you linked to also contains this quote: "Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera said Friday the public announcements had been made "after a special unit analysed data on the radar contact and confirmed it. There is no mistake about it".

A paper on the technique, compliments of India's experts on the subject: http://www.icacct.apiit.edu.in/downl...CHAPTER-21.pdf

[Zinja]

The only countries which have a stake in this dispute are China, Japan and Taiwan. The islands are located in the East China sea between the three countries. I see no conceivable scenario where the airspace or territory of Vietnam, Philippines and especially India would be violated during a slugfest between the PRC, ROC and Japan. None of them have an interest in fighting with too many countries at the same time.

Do you think a conflict involving China, Japan and Taiwan (and the US by inevitability) would be a localised conflict?

[Zinja]

You can't. I suspect it was a misstatement. But you can record "painting" and it's done all the time.

The article you linked to also contains this quote: "Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera said Friday the public announcements had been made "after a special unit analysed data on the radar contact and confirmed it. There is no mistake about it".

A paper on the technique, compliments of India's experts on the subject: http://www.icacct.apiit.edu.in/downl...CHAPTER-21.pdf

Thanks JAD, good find!

[zraver]

Do you think a conflict involving China, Japan and Taiwan (and the US by inevitability) would be a localised conflict?

ROC wont jump in. If it blows up it will be PRC vs Japan and only if Japan starts to lose the US. Honestly, against Japan, China is over matched, badly so and would be quickly defeated if she felt froggy.

[Firestorm]

Do you think a conflict involving China, Japan and Taiwan (and the US by inevitability) would be a localised conflict?

I'm saying it won't involve the countries you mentioned viz. Vietnam, Philippines and India, especially to the point where their survival itself is threatened.
US involvement is not so straightforward either. ROC and Japan are on opposite sides in this conflict and both are US allies. So whose side will the US take? I doubt the Japanese need US help to take on China, unless the war goes nuclear. And it won't go nuclear because the Chinese won't commit national suicide over a few islands.

[Zinja]

ROC wont jump in. If it blows up it will be PRC vs Japan and only if Japan starts to lose the US. Honestly, against Japan, China is over matched, badly so and would be quickly defeated if she felt froggy.

I am not suggesting that ROC is eager to 'jump in', but what im suggesting is there are a million and one scenarios that can draw in all sorts not by choice but by compulsion. The Senkaku Islands in dispute between PRC and Japan are also the in the chain of islands in dispute between Japan and RoC. If Japan and China kick it off, will RoC stand by and forfeit whatever claims she has on those islands? Maybe yes, maybe no. If the US is drawn in as is likely to be, can they fly over RoC or use RoC assets of any sort? If so, can China intercept US in RoC airspace? Or worse still, bomb whatever assets US will use (if any) from RoC? If the US launches strikes from a carrier tucked further afield behind Taiwan can China intercept across RoC? Can the US launch any missions whatsoever from its base in South Korea? If so can China pre-empt? During all this will India just watch without doing anything or would she move her troops at least to reinforce its border with China? How will China in a bind interpret such a move?

I think to assume that a conflict between these two will just be controllable and confined thus far is over simplifying a very complex situation.

[Zinja]

I'm saying it won't involve the countries you mentioned viz. Vietnam, Philippines and India, especially to the point where their survival itself is threatened.

The point i was making was that such a conflict will be so devastating no one will be left unscathed, be it physically, economically or socially.

US involvement is not so straightforward either.

Madam Secretary removed that ambiguity.

[zraver]

I am not suggesting that ROC is eager to 'jump in', but what im suggesting is there are a million and one scenarios that can draw in all sorts not by choice but by compulsion. The Senkaku Islands in dispute between PRC and Japan are also the in the chain of islands in dispute between Japan and RoC. If Japan and China kick it off, will RoC stand by and forfeit whatever claims she has on those islands? Maybe yes, maybe no. If the US is drawn in as is likely to be, can they fly over RoC or use RoC assets of any sort? If so, can China intercept US in RoC airspace? Or worse still, bomb whatever assets US will use (if any) from RoC? If the US launches strikes from a carrier tucked further afield behind Taiwan can China intercept across RoC? Can the US launch any missions whatsoever from its base in South Korea? If so can China pre-empt? During all this will India just watch without doing anything or would she move her troops at least to reinforce its border with China? How will China in a bind interpret such a move?

I think to assume that a conflict between these two will just be controllable and confined thus far is over simplifying a very complex situation.

Like I said, China is an an over match situation and is the one who is over matched. If she presses the issue she will most likely be soundly defeated and lose significant surface and air assets as well as a number of submarines. Those will be the easy losses. The economic hits will hurt far worse and for far longer. Japan's modern fleet of attack submarines and the weak state of the PLAN ASW capabilty means if the Chinese leave port, they are unlikely to return.

In the Air, Japanese Eagles are superior to Chinese flankers in terms of BVR technology and pilot stick time. China's only real trumop card is that China cans trike Japan proper and Japan cannot respond. However, to do so invites, nay demands US intervention.

[Officer of Engineers]

The sad fact is that Taiwan is in the best position to take and to hold the islands.

[Zinja]

Like I said, China is an an over match situation and is the one who is over matched. If she presses the issue she will most likely be soundly defeated and lose significant surface and air assets as well as a number of submarines. Those will be the easy losses. The economic hits will hurt far worse and for far longer. Japan's modern fleet of attack submarines and the weak state of the PLAN ASW capabilty means if the Chinese leave port, they are unlikely to return.

In the Air, Japanese Eagles are superior to Chinese flankers in terms of BVR technology and pilot stick time. China's only real trumop card is that China cans trike Japan proper and Japan cannot respond. However, to do so invites, nay demands US intervention.

Im not arguing who is the better of the two, im arguing that the consequences will be unlimited, possibly engulfing the region.

[zraver]

Im not arguing who is the better of the two, im arguing that the consequences will be unlimited, possibly engulfing the region.

Doubtful, to be able to try and beat Japan, China would have pull in almost all of China's modern air and sea assets leaving very little for elsewhere. Given the number of security concerns China has this is unlikely. Moving assets opposite Japan would leave the Spratly's uncovered for example. Plus long term, Chinese agression will further the Asian arms race we are already seeing unfold.

The other option to to try and pull a draw or surprise upset early and then hope for international pressure to put to put a stop to the fighting. But if that doesn't work, Japan which has better tech and training and far fewer security concerns and thus greater ability to concentrate mass wins. However, if China does manage an Asian blitz on Japan over the islands, the arms race will only get worse.

[Guest]

Hi, this page compared the BVR capability of J-10 vs F-15J
J-10 vs F-15
It says PL-12's range is 100km but AIM-120D's is 70km

[Zinja]

Doubtful, to be able to try and beat Japan, China would have pull in almost all of China's modern air and sea assets leaving very little for elsewhere. Given the number of security concerns China has this is unlikely. Moving assets opposite Japan would leave the Spratly's uncovered for example. Plus long term, Chinese agression will further the Asian arms race we are already seeing unfold.

Zraver, I am not arguing a win or lose for China here. I am arguing the unpredictable complexities at play in such a conflict, some of which you are alluding yourself in your post. In a conflict environment where trust has completely broken down, nationalism, militancy, propaganda and demagoguery rule the day, no one can foretell what the outcome of such a conflict will be......for everyone concerned (including the region and the whole world at large, generally).

So I ask the question again; Does anyone see a happy ending in all of this?

[cyppok]

Zraver, I am not arguing a win or lose for China here. I am arguing the unpredictable complexities at play in such a conflict, some of which you are alluding yourself in your post. In a conflict environment where trust has completely broken down, nationalism, militancy, propaganda and demagoguery rule the day, no one can foretell what the outcome of such a conflict will be......for everyone concerned (including the region and the whole world at large, generally).

So I ask the question again; Does anyone see a happy ending in all of this?

The financial impact cannot be understated for anyone the US included.
Imagine if war occured and U.S. canceled a trillion dollars of Chinese bonds. Think of the implications.
1) interest rates would go up simply due to the fact that risks went up
2) international trade and finance spreads (risk premiums) would explode while trade implodes
3) the deflationary implosion from this would be extremely punishing to every illiquid(time sensitive) asset (real estate, bonds, etc)

just picture a 20-30% shock in asset prices for commercial real estate and think how many banks become negatively cash flowing once the assets they underwrote do not cover (a) cash flow (b) net present value is negative since all holders would walk, think of the ripple effect not just to real estate taxes of already semi-insolvent local governments but the general market transactions. Not a pretty picture.