Singapore warns US on anti-China rhetoric

[astralis]

z,

The moral, spiritual, political and historiographical souls of each people is about as far apart as can be while sharing the same planet...Its a contest of two proud peoples and eventually it will be war.

completely disagree, especially if you look at chinese history and when/where they go to war.

in the past forty years, the chinese have gotten far more close to the US than they were. in the 50s-60s, they were actively exporting revolution, with a strongman whom thought nothing of expending chinese lives and ensuring that his nation remained impoverished and autarkic for the glory of his legacy.

now the chinese actively seek to integrate into the US-created global structure. their leaders, on the other hand, are far more constrained in what they can and cannot do even compared to 20 years ago. no more going to war with vietnam just to teach them a lesson.

i agree with OoE-- the chinese don't care much for pride-- they're far more concerned with making sure their overheated system doesn't slag down.

fast forward another twenty years and even with optimistic scenarios china will have the GDP per capita of a moderately prosperous country-- say where taiwan or south korea or greece is today...but with demographics comparable or even worse than japan's. one bad downturn-- say, the housing/real estate bubble breaks, as is very likely, and you're looking at the GDP per capita of hungary or estonia, instead.

that's not the make-up of a firebreathing imperial power. they've got far too much to lose, and very little to gain.

[Tanker]

Except that it does, or might. Top predators cannot occupy the same place (Pacific) in peace, one of the other will have be beaten down. The level of the beat down will determine if its a short confrontation like the UK v Germany, or something longer like the UK v France or Europe v Persia. This is even more true when its a naval rivalry. WWI and II effectively let the UK co-opt the US in to doing the RN's previous job of patrolling the seas. Same mission same language, same culture. But aside from that event I don't know of any naval rivalries where both sides were willing to assert themselves that have not resulted in war. During the Cold War the Soviets never really challenged the USN, they always backed down. If the US and China both take a we wont back down approach then the question is not if, but when the two powers will fight.

Interesting. Considering that the only animal a lion doesn't screw with is an elephant and they both occupy the same area of Africa I think there is some room in the Pacific.

[Doktor]

As long as there are Zebras and Antelopes, why bother with the Elepahants if you are a lion?

I bet they are not as tasty and too much of a hassle ;)

[zraver]

Jason, you want to clairfy that for me. The Soviets went from being a second rate backward watershed hiding under English and French shadows to smashing the most technologically advanced army on earth, then to stare nose-to-nose with the most technologically advanced nation on earth while China was cowering under her own skirt and was waiting to fight a war within herself. I really don't see a lot of pride there.

Sir, during the Cold war every time the US gave the Soviets the evil eye the reds in the Kremlin turned white. China today is a different beast much closer to Imperial Germany in power structure in fact.

[zraver]

Interesting. Considering that the only animal a lion doesn't screw with is an elephant and they both occupy the same area of Africa I think there is some room in the Pacific.

Lions Killing Elephant - YouTube

[zraver]

z,



completely disagree, especially if you look at chinese history and when/where they go to war.

They go to war historically when one of their suzerainties tries to break away. Or when a competing imperial power encroaches.

in the past forty years, the chinese have gotten far more close to the US than they were. in the 50s-60s, they were actively exporting revolution, with a strongman whom thought nothing of expending chinese lives and ensuring that his nation remained impoverished and autarkic for the glory of his legacy.

now the chinese actively seek to integrate into the US-created global structure. their leaders, on the other hand, are far more constrained in what they can and cannot do even compared to 20 years ago. no more going to war with vietnam just to teach them a lesson.

trade doesn't stop wars, global structures don't stop wars- gross imbalances of power stop wars. As for Vietnam, Japan and others they certainly don't agree with you.

i agree with OoE-- the chinese don't care much for pride-- they're far more concerned with making sure their overheated system doesn't slag down.

That completely ignores all of Chinese cultural history. China like many cultures is a vertical society where authority and obligation flow in tandem. Although not as severe in form as Japanese "face' it is no less real, powerful or binding. That pride has already caused China to draw several lines in the sand. So far they have not been crossed- but what happens when they do and not responding threatens to turn into an existential crisis for their leadership?

China is engaged in a military build up at sea every bit as robust as Germany's before WWI. Even if not aimed directly at the US but instead at a closer more bitter foe the weighting of the scales is a challenge to the US.

fast forward another twenty years and even with optimistic scenarios china will have the GDP per capita of a moderately prosperous country-- say where taiwan or south korea or greece is today...but with demographics comparable or even worse than japan's. one bad downturn-- say, the housing/real estate bubble breaks, as is very likely, and you're looking at the GDP per capita of hungary or estonia, instead.

and... not to make light of your point but as far as heavy industry goes, when the US ruled the roost as the number 1 heavy manufacturing exporter we have similar prosperity rates and wealth distribution to what your describing

that's not the make-up of a fire breathing imperial power. they've got far too much to lose, and very little to gain.

That is exactly the make up of a fire breathing imperial power.

[Officer of Engineers]

Sir, during the Cold war every time the US gave the Soviets the evil eye the reds in the Kremlin turned white. China today is a different beast much closer to Imperial Germany in power structure in fact.

The Soviets moved all their forces up to the line. The Chinese retreated 100 miles into their own country.

[Skywatcher]

z,

fast forward another twenty years and even with optimistic scenarios china will have the GDP per capita of a moderately prosperous country-- say where taiwan or south korea or greece is today...but with demographics comparable or even worse than japan's. one bad downturn-- say, the housing/real estate bubble breaks, as is very likely, and you're looking at the GDP per capita of hungary or estonia, instead.

that's not the make-up of a firebreathing imperial power. they've got far too much to lose, and very little to gain.

Going to the topic of future Chinese demographics, how will immigration (especially of foreign brides for all those men) going to be able to mitigate that?

[astralis]

skywatcher,

how will immigration (especially of foreign brides for all those men) going to be able to mitigate that?

china's not the most immigration-friendly country out there (certainly friendlier than japan, though that is not saying much).

to reverse the demographic trend would require an extreme amount of immigration, which is not likely. even the US, which is by reputation the most-immigrant friendly country (although our xenophobes and really bad immigration law gives this the lie), will barely grow-- and that is with a LOT of inflow of latinos, whose childbirth rates are relatively high for the first or second generation.

frankly i think china will hit its "power peak" around 2020-2030. afterwards, the demographics issue will actually force relative power back to the US.

[Skywatcher]

skywatcher,



china's not the most immigration-friendly country out there (certainly friendlier than japan, though that is not saying much).

to reverse the demographic trend would require an extreme amount of immigration, which is not likely. even the US, which is by reputation the most-immigrant friendly country (although our xenophobes and really bad immigration law gives this the lie), will barely grow-- and that is with a LOT of inflow of latinos, whose childbirth rates are relatively high for the first or second generation.

frankly i think china will hit its "power peak" around 2020-2030. afterwards, the demographics issue will actually force relative power back to the US.

I was thinking that if there's really 20 to 50 million young men in China without corresponding others in females of the same group (assuming that the official census is accurate), then they'll start getting them from aboard (pick any developing country with a large economic relationship with China, a million from here, a million from there), which should alleviate labor shortages somewhat, and possibly see more births, if there's still a strong enough party state to create incentives for higher fertility rates.

[astralis]

I was thinking that if there's really 20 to 50 million young men in China without corresponding others in females of the same group (assuming that the official census is accurate), then they'll start getting them from aboard (pick any developing country with a large economic relationship with China, a million from here, a million from there), which should alleviate labor shortages somewhat, and possibly see more births, if there's still a strong enough party state to create incentives for higher fertility rates.

yeah, you mean what's going on in TW right now...

frankly with the numbers you are talking about it will be difficult. also, their average wealth ain't so high that they can afford foreign wives en masse just yet.

for the short/medium-term it'll probably mean more immigration. later when richer, perhaps. probably not enough to change the overall demographic picture, though. what will be interesting is to see how chinese public policy develops towards creating a social safety net. much like the rest of their development for the last 30 years, they're going to be undergoing in 10-20 years what the West took 50-75 years to do.

in this case, this speed is not to their advantage.

[HKDan]

I was thinking that if there's really 20 to 50 million young men in China without corresponding others in females of the same group (assuming that the official census is accurate), then they'll start getting them from aboard (pick any developing country with a large economic relationship with China, a million from here, a million from there), which should alleviate labor shortages somewhat, and possibly see more births, if there's still a strong enough party state to create incentives for higher fertility rates.

Skywatcher,

I was thinking that if a large group of young men unable to find spouses does emerge in China over the next decades, that group will probably be over represented in the lowest income groups. Given that wealth plays such a big role in the marriage market in the mainland right now (pressure to provide an apartment, car, etc), it stands to reason that the ones unable to find a Chinese spouse will probably be the ones least able to attract a bride from a neighboring country.

[Skywatcher]

Skywatcher,

I was thinking that if a large group of young men unable to find spouses does emerge in China over the next decades, that group will probably be over represented in the lowest income groups. Given that wealth plays such a big role in the marriage market in the mainland right now (pressure to provide an apartment, car, etc), it stands to reason that the ones unable to find a Chinese spouse will probably be the ones least able to attract a bride from a neighboring country.

There are plenty of desperate (relatively so) women in places like Ethiopia and Malawi which frankly have ridiculous levels of population growth. Now it's a bit far off, but with China reaching into Africa, things may start happening. Too many variables to say for sure what level it will take, though.

[HKDan]

There are plenty of desperate (relatively so) women in places like Ethiopia and Malawi which frankly have ridiculous levels of population growth. Now it's a bit far off, but with China reaching into Africa, things may start happening. Too many variables to say for sure what level it will take, though.

I suppose that its not impossible to see the prejudices of today disappear in the realities of tomorrow. Its hadn't really crossed my mind that the search would reach across continents or such wide cultural barriers, but you do have a point that it is possible. I do have a pretty hard time imagining a wave of mail order brides to rural China from Africa, but I suppose its not entirely out of the question. There would certainly be some very significant obstacles to overcome. Still, the power to procreate has got to be among the strongest human impulses out there ...as far as desperate guys go, I guess anyone is fair game.

[Skywatcher]

Well, China will need to get millions of domestic workers to help take care of the elderly (and other jobs), and at reasonably low costs too. That doesn't leave room for a lot of options.