Pakistan influence on Taliban commanders helped Afghan breakthrough

[Parihaka]

I am curious, let's say everything in this documentary is true, why the status quo? Why no slap on the Pak hands, why no sanctions, why no treats with intervention, why instead of that we have POTUS asking for increasing the aid to Pakistan?

Because the all-to-real possible alternative is that the current nutters in charge in Pakistan could be replaced with far worse nutters. Pakistan's nukes make maintaining the current power structures imperative while casting about for ways and means to replace that power structure with something better, rather than worse.

Lets put it this way: you and your friends are stuck in a room with someone wearing a suicide belt, demanding you feed him and satisfy his desires or else he'll pull the trigger.
You can see a priori he's a loonie but also he's not nearly as big a loonie as his friend standing beside him who desperately wants to pull the trigger.
Step one, don't piss off the guy with the belt, feed him, make him fat, call in the hookers when required, tell him how wonderful he is.
Step two get rid of the total loonie friend but slowly, death by a thousand cuts so as not to overly stimulate the guy with the belt.
I actually have a lot of admiration for Obama's Afghan/Pakistan strategy, if I'm reading it correctly.

[Doktor]

Pari,

I understand your parallel, but the thing is I am in a room with 2 loonies, one has a belt, the other doesn't. I wear a Bomb suit and a big gun and can take them both. The risk is some of my friends may not survive or will get injured if the other loonie gets the trigger.

Now, if that is the case, and this is me speaking here in my own name, I'd rather take the risk taking them both then to watch all my friends struggle. Instead of feeding loonie #1 and cutting loonie #2.

My rationale is simple, while i feed and cut these 2, more will come. Even if more loonies don't come, and we starve the other dude, we will still be in a room with a loonie with a belt.

[Parihaka]

Pari,

I understand your parallel, but the thing is I am in a room with 2 loonies, one has a belt, the other doesn't. I wear a Bomb suit and a big gun and can take them both. The risk is some of my friends may not survive or will get injured if the other loonie gets the trigger.

agreed but remember you and your family will get hurt too.

Now, if that is the case, and this is me speaking here in my own name, I'd rather take the risk taking them both then to watch all my friends struggle. Instead of feeding loonie #1 and cutting loonie #2.

the size of the bomb means that you, your family and all your friends will get hurt if it goes off. Yes you want both gone but this quandary is not a Gordian Knot, one blow will not do it, but a thousand small cuts will.

My rationale is simple, while i feed and cut these 2, more will come. Even if more loonies don't come, and we starve the other dude, we will still be in a room with a loonie with a belt.

The problem is the bomb. That's step 3.
Without it, they and their kith and kin are just loonies you can easily dispose off.

Much fuss is being played out about US talks with the Taliban, about the TB raising a flag in Qatar etc, and Pakistan demanding inclusion in those talks.
Pakistan is loonie 1, with the bomb. The TB is loonie 2, itching to have the bomb.
Loonie 1 is deeply suspicious of any daylight being created between himself and loonie 2 as part of their ploy is to project the alternative that loonie 2 is much worse. They know that loonie 2 doesn't give a flying fuck for loonie 1, they blow them up too given half a chance.
Create that separation, bribe off loonie 2 and dispose of him separately, with a different strategy to that of loonie 1. That's easy and the Obama govt. seems to me to be doing that. They're hitting loonie 2 with drone strikes while offering the carrot of some autonomy. Loonie 1, as AM is exemplifying, is getting nervous but is behind the ball game.

Was it in this thread that I read about the problems of withdrawing material and men through Pakistan? It is loonie 2 creating those problems as loonie 1 is too scared to do it directly as he might loose his food and whores. So deal directly with loonie 2 and again you create daylight and mistrust between the two of them. One part of the knot frays

[Doktor]

I am a simple guy. This is too much for me :)

And the bomb is still there.

[Parihaka]

I am a simple guy. This is too much for me :)

Da nada, all analogies quickly fall apart

And the bomb is still there.

Yes it is and you're not going to get rid off it. But you can manoeuvre so that it falls into the hands of someone you trust more. Do you hear much nowadays about an imminent thermonuclear war between America and the USSR? Where did that go?

As an aside I'd recommend the reading of 'The player of Games' by Iain M. Banks, may he rest in peace. All his 'science fiction' series use the genre as platforms for discussing game theory as international strategy, but with the additional recognition that rationality is subjective.

[Doktor]

Yes it is and you're not going to get rid off it. But you can manoeuvre so that it falls into the hands of someone you trust more. Do you hear much nowadays about an imminent thermonuclear war between America and the USSR? Where did that go?

As an aside I'd recommend the reading of 'The player of Games' by Iain M. Banks, may he rest in peace. All his 'science fiction' series use the genre as platforms for discussing game theory as international strategy, but with the additional recognition that rationality is subjective.

Hmm... most of it is scrapped ;)

Anyway, there were hotlines and what not to ease the distrust. Here things seem to go in the other direction, from full trust to deteriorated relations. It's time to change the tide. Wonder if Obama can do that. Hope you are right.

[Parihaka]

Hmm... most of it is scrapped ;)

Anyway, there were hotlines and what not to ease the distrust. Here things seem to go in the other direction, from full trust to deteriorated relations. It's time to change the tide. Wonder if Obama can do that. Hope you are right.

Pakistan doesn't have the threat level of the USSR so gets a lower response from the US than them but the game still has the same rules. The tide is changing, Pakistan is scared shitless and yes I hope I'm right about th Obama administration too.

[Julie]

There are a few things to address here:

First, how Pakistan's government functions, who the major power players are and what influence they hold is the concern of Pakistan and Pakistanis alone. If the military wants to control Pakistani foreign policy, that is none of your business - it is for Pakistanis to determine how they want their country to be run and the nature/intricacies of the governance system put into place has no bearing on Pakistan's sovereignty.

Second, where you, as a non-Pakistani, have the right to be concerned is when you think Pakistani policies impact you (the allegation of terrorist training camps, madrassas for example). With respect to dealing with the hodgepodge of terrorist/extremist groups in the country, it is a long term and complicated challenge that goes far beyond mere military operations, and nothing illustrates that better than the inability of the US/ISAF to accomplish 'total peace' in Afghanistan (and Iraq, for as long as the US was there), despite having many magnitudes more economic and military resources at her disposal.

You know, it is really difficult to deal with a President who states his country is a partner in the "War on terror," while his military shuffles the most wanted man out of Afghanistan and harbors and protects him for many years. Osama was living right up under the nose of the 6th largest military in the world, and they had no clue? Then they let the China send their people to inspect the pieces of the black hawk that was left behind??? Then YOU want to tell me it is none of my business who is the decision-maker in Pakistan? Oh, please man, do cut me a break....

[Firestorm]

Lets put it this way: you and your friends are stuck in a room with someone wearing a suicide belt, demanding you feed him and satisfy his desires or else he'll pull the trigger.
You can see a priori he's a loonie but also he's not nearly as big a loonie as his friend standing beside him who desperately wants to pull the trigger.
Step one, don't piss off the guy with the belt, feed him, make him fat, call in the hookers when required, tell him how wonderful he is.

This is just another way of saying "Pay him protection money." I hope the American people realize that this is what is essentially happening right now.

Step two get rid of the total loonie friend but slowly, death by a thousand cuts so as not to overly stimulate the guy with the belt.

And this accomplishes what? You still have Loony #1 who still has the bomb and his finger on the trigger, which might be even more jittery now. If the next step is to get rid of the bomb, you might as well have done that as Step 1, since without the bomb, neither of the two are a threat. If it is not possible to get rid of the bomb, you'll be paying Loony #1 protection money indefinitely.

I actually have a lot of admiration for Obama's Afghan/Pakistan strategy, if I'm reading it correctly.

Lets see what they do after withdrawing from Afghanistan. It is unclear how much of the current support to pakistan is to ensure that the supply routes remain open.

[Parihaka]

This is just another way of saying "Pay him protection money." I hope the American people realize that this is what is essentially happening right now.

If they don't they need their heads read. The question is, is it the only thing they're doing or is it a means to an end. I'll let everyone else draw their own opinions on that.

And this accomplishes what? You still have Loony #1 who still has the bomb and his finger on the trigger, which might be even more jittery now. If the next step is to get rid of the bomb, you might as well have done that as Step 1, since without the bomb, neither of the two are a threat. If it is not possible to get rid of the bomb, you'll be paying Loony #1 protection money indefinitely.

Because you remove part of loonie 1's weapons. The US makes no bones about the fact publicly that their greatest fear is those bombs fall into the hands of the Jihadis and Pakistan knows this. The question is, how can the US make that less likely to happen? I don't believe anyone in their right minds believes an invasion/strike against the PA and destruction of those bombs, if possible, is a rational path.

Lets see what they do after withdrawing from Afghanistan. It is unclear how much of the current support to pakistan is to ensure that the supply routes remain open.

Yeah I agree. 2014 is shaping up to be a VERY interesting year.

[Double Edge]

Was it in this thread that I read about the problems of withdrawing material and men through Pakistan?

Not explicitly, but i read an op-ed that said that too :)

Let's say that's one reason for the US to talk to the Taliban.

As an aside I'd recommend the reading of 'The player of Games' by Iain M. Banks, may he rest in peace. All his 'science fiction' series use the genre as platforms for discussing game theory as international strategy, but with the additional recognition that rationality is subjective

Interesting model.

The stories center around the Culture, a post-scarcity semi-anarchist utopia consisting of various humanoid races and managed by very advanced artificial intelligences. The main theme of the novels is the dilemmas that an idealistic hyperpower faces in dealing with civilisations that do not share its ideals, and whose behaviour it sometimes finds repulsive

Pakistan is loonie 1, with the bomb. The TB is loonie 2, itching to have the bomb.
Loonie 1 is deeply suspicious of any daylight being created between himself and loonie 2 as part of their ploy is to project the alternative that loonie 2 is much worse. They know that loonie 2 doesn't give a flying fuck for loonie 1, they blow them up too given half a chance.
Create that separation, bribe off loonie 2 and dispose of him separately, with a different strategy to that of loonie 1. That's easy and the Obama govt. seems to me to be doing that. They're hitting loonie 2 with drone strikes while offering the carrot of some autonomy. Loonie 1, as AM is exemplifying, is getting nervous but is behind the ball game.

Where do you see loonie 1 getting nervous ?

If anything Loonie 1 is feeling more confident having weathered the storm, maybe even vindicated.

Yeah I agree. 2014 is shaping up to be a VERY interesting year.

If the political transition in the 2014 elections goes through better than it did in 2009, things will look up. Otherwise it will be chaos.

[lemontree]

So will Afghanistan be another two-headed entity as compared to Pakistan? The Islamic Emirates (Taliban) will rule the country as ISI rules Pakistan and the President placed as a yard ornament?

Afghanistan that is ruled by its people well be a govt like yours and mine. But an Afghanistan ruled by the Tablian will be a breeding ground for terrorists run by the ISI/ Pak Army.

[lemontree]

I am curious, let's say everything in this documentary is true, why the status quo? Why no slap on the Pak hands, why no sanctions, why no treats with intervention, why instead of that we have POTUS asking for increasing the aid to Pakistan?

Simple, all logistic lines of communication for the NATO troops runs through Pakistan. Once they are out in 2014, then things would probably change.

[Parihaka]

Where do you see loonie 1 getting nervous ?

They're loosing a regular and significant source of income, material and intel: they're starting to insist they can control the tail bunnies after years of denial, and they're scared Afghanistan with the tail bunnies will move outside their control.
Imagine if the 'aid' currently supplied to Pakistan suddenly starts going to the controllable parts of the TB inside Afghanistan instead, in that time honoured tradition of great powers buying off one tribe and pitting them against another.
As far as I can tell there is zero trust or respect for Pakistan within the US government. I really can't see, post withdrawal, what cards Pakistan can play other than the old loonie 1 gambit " I'll blow yous all up, just see if I don't". Frenemies indeed.

[antimony]

They're loosing a regular and significant source of income, material and intel: they're starting to insist they can control the tail bunnies after years of denial, and they're scared Afghanistan with the tail bunnies will move outside their control.
Imagine if the 'aid' currently supplied to Pakistan suddenly starts going to the controllable parts of the TB inside Afghanistan instead, in that time honoured tradition of great powers buying off one tribe and pitting them against another.
As far as I can tell there is zero trust or respect for Pakistan within the US government. I really can't see, post withdrawal, what cards Pakistan can play other than the old loonie 1 gambit " I'll blow yous all up, just see if I don't". Frenemies indeed.

After going through Kargil, 911 and others, I have come to believe that the Pakistani leadership is crazy...like a fox.

I don't know if the Pakistani citizens themselves are self destructive or not (they seem so at some points), their actual leadership is certainly not. So I do not believe that the loonie with the belt, is actually loonie, though he certainly wants us to believe so.