Jaish terrorists attack CRPF convoy in Kashmir, 40 killed

[Oracle]

Pakistan seeks 'more evidence' from India on JeM's involvement in Pulwama attack

Islamic State of Terroristan wants more proof. Proof that were sent for the 2001 Parliament attacks weren't enough, 26/11 proofs weren't enough. Nothing can satisfy the bloodlust of the Pakistani military and their notorious spy agency the ISI. These madrassah educated, illiterate, jihadi organisations are known worldwide with much fanfare for their foreign policy agenda of terrorism.

[Agnostic Muslim]

We will escalate in that case and dare you to go further. And then you will be confronted with an asymmetric conventional disadvantage. Simple.

You cannot attack our military in response to our attack on your terrorists.

Do you see how the balance has flipped in so many ways.

People do not think the 2016 surgical strikes had any effect. Didn't deter Pakistan from more strikes.

But it really is an inflection point in how India reacts to terrorists attacks and whatever comes with it.

I really don't see the balance flipping. If India strikes, Pakistan will strike back, and the pressure, as seen with the recent incidents, will be on India to not escalate further.

Pakistan isn't going to back down, and Pakistan demonstrated that. We're not going to sit back and be scapegoated for Indian security failures in IOK.

[Oracle]

I really don't see the balance flipping. If India strikes, Pakistan will strike back, and the pressure, as seen with the recent incidents, will be on India to not escalate further.

Pakistan isn't going to back down, and Pakistan demonstrated that. We're not going to sit back and be scapegoated for Indian security failures in IOK.

It was the US which forced the Pakistani Army to release the IAF pilot, because India was contemplating retaliation with missiles. What news are you reading? Your PM, Taliban Khan as of yesterday said the threat of war is not over yet, what does it mean? What the F does it mean?

You and your jihadi narrative have been debunked time and over here. And Pak isn't going to back down? Back down from what? Sending in the muslim jihadi terrorist? F, we know that, and we'll kill all those pigs who enter Kashmir.

Your country, Pak, is a puny terrorist country, that survives on begging and military aid, have no industry to speak of and yet they challenge India. Lost 4 wars, 93000 PoWs. Why is it that you and some of your countrymen and your military have no shame? Like getting beat up in all confrontations? Runs in the jihadi terrorist muslim narrative, is it?

Stop your jihadi FP. Concentrate on your begging economy. Fix your F terrorist agenda for your future kids. Else, there'd be no future.

Pakistani kids future doesn't matter to you all? Huh? 140+ kids died in the Peshawar school attack, it didn't matter, did it? Have some skin in admitting what the FP objective of terrorising neighbours have done to your pathetic pisspoor islamic jihadi country.

[Double Edge]

More independent satellite imagery analysis debunking Indian claims of any actual damage being inflicted (responses to some of the previous posts to follow as I get time):

New High Res Satellite Imagery Suggests Balakot Airstrike a 'Very Precise Miss'

High resolution imagery acquired by European Space Imaging the day after the strike suggests that buildings at the Jaish camp were not visibly damaged or destroyed.

Marcus Hellyer, Nathan Ruser and Aakriti Bachhawat

3 HOURS AGO
Ever since the stunning US success in the 1991 Gulf War, we have increasingly come to take precision bombing for granted. While militaries may sometimes misidentify a target, we assume that they can precisely hit what they are aiming at. ‘Precision strike’ is supposedly a proliferating, off-the-shelf commodity.

But India’s recent airstrike on a purported Jaish-e-Mohammad terrorist camp in Balakot in Pakistan on February 26 suggests that precision strike is still an art and science that requires both practice and enabling systems to achieve the intended effect. Simply buying precision munitions off the shelf is not enough.

Indian news media outlets have cited unnamed ‘senior military officers’ as saying that the Indian Air Force used the Israeli SPICE 2000 weapon to target four buildings at a terrorist camp in Balakot. The SPICE 2000 is the Israeli analogue of the US JDAM (joint direct attack munition), the weapon that has become the mainstay of coalition airstrikes in the Middle East. The SPICE 2000 is essentially a strap-on guidance kit that can transform a 2,000-pound ‘dumb’ bomb into a very precise way to deliver more than 400 kilograms of high explosives at a range of up to 60 kilometres. The weapon can be both GPS- and electro-optically guided. A 2,000-pound bomb causes substantial damage to structures.

Controversy has raged over whether India hit its intended targets. The Indian narrative has insisted that the strikes did hit their targets, ‘killing a large number of terrorists’. Indian Air Chief Marshal B.S. Dhanoa remarked, ‘If we plan to hit the target, we hit the target.’

The Indian narrative has also suggested that the strike used a SPICE 2000 variant with a reduced amount of explosive and the ability to penetrate through several floors of a building and even underground before detonating. This argument claims that such a weapon would only create a small entry hole and, while it would kill all occupants, it wouldn’t destroy the target building.

However, publicly available imagery acquired by European Space Imaging the day after the strike suggests that buildings at the camp were not visibly damaged or destroyed (see image below). This imagery, which is of a higher resolution than that available previously, shows conspicuously undamaged roofs that are not consistent with either a SPICE 2000 strike or a strike with other munitions. We believe that even a weapon with reduced explosive fill would cause damage to buildings that would be identifiable in the satellite imagery.

We suggest a possible alternative explanation.

One of us (Nathan Ruser) has previously published imagery identifying likely impact sites and comparing their locations with the locations of likely targets. The locations of the weapons’ impacts can be independently verified through three separate sources. First, photos taken by local journalists of impact craters have been geolocated by matching features visible in the images to features visible in satellite imagery.

Second, our previously published analysis of infrared satellite imagery indicates three circular areas – each roughly 30 metres in diameter – in which vegetation disappeared in the two days either side of the strike and which are consistent with explosive impact sites.

Finally, the images taken the day following the airstrikes and published by European Space Imaging allow for a higher resolution optical analysis, which indicates disturbances and craters in the areas previously identified as the likely impact locations.

There are two striking aspects to the images. The first is that all three weapons missed by similar (but not identical) distances, and certainly by much more than the three metre ‘circular error probable’ attributed to the SPICE 2000. The second is that all three weapons missed in virtually the same direction. These two factors suggest that the misses were caused by a systematic targeting error.

The strike could have relied on the SPICE 2000’s electro-optical guidance capabilities, but that would have required significant targeting support, including the development of topographically and architecturally precise modelling to program and guide the weapon. It is not a simple process and is dependent on considerable pre-strike imagery-collection and targeting infrastructure. It is likely that the Indian Air Force opted instead to rely solely on the weapon’s ‘set and forget’ GPS capabilities.

It is important to note two characteristics of GPS-guided weapons. The first is that GPS coordinates have three dimensions: elevation, latitude and longitude – something we tend to overlook in everyday life when we navigate using a mobile phone’s GPS function. Second, a glide weapon like the SPICE 2000 doesn’t fall vertically to its target; it follows an inclined trajectory. Therefore, an incorrect vertical coordinate will result in the weapon missing as surely as an error in latitude or longitude.

Such errors can occur for various reasons, including by neglecting to convert coordinates from one coordinate system, or datum, to another (a datum shift). One potential candidate in this case is the difference between GPS ellipsoidal height and orthometric height based on mean sea level (see here for an explanation). In northeastern Pakistan, the difference is around 33 metres, although in many areas the difference is not precisely mapped so it may be larger or smaller at a point such as Balakot.

One explanation for the miss is that the SPICE 2000 bombs were incorrectly programmed to fly precisely into GPS points that were, say, 33 metres above their intended targets (the buildings on top of the ridge line). They performed as programmed and then continued on their trajectories until they struck the valley beneath.

The image below correlates the identified impact sites, the buildings that were the likely targets and a discrepancy between ellipsoidal and orthometric height which we have assumed to equate to 33 metres above the target buildings. Presented in 3D, this correlation results in consistent, parallel trajectories indicating a consistent targeting error. The differences in the impact distances from the intended targets are accounted for by the steep terrain and the differences in elevation between the impact sites. While this diagram does not necessarily represent the actual trajectories of the missiles, it does suggest a systematic targeting error caused by the use of different vertical datums.

This explanation is lent further credibility by the fact that the resultant trajectories point back towards where India has claimed the weapons were launched from, just on the Indian side of the border.

This may not be the actual explanation. In a strike system that consists of French jets, Israeli weapons, US GPS and a targeting system that potentially used maps based on an older local Indian datum, there are other ways in which incorrect information could have been introduced or data shifts could have been omitted.

Also read: Four Reasons India Has Little Cause to Cheer the Balakot Airstrike and its Aftermath

Despite the proliferation of precision weapons, actually completing the strike ‘kill chain’ is still difficult. Some militaries, such as those of the US and Australia, have spent years developing the technologies and systems that enable precision strike and employing the skills required in actual operations. But proficiency should not be taken for granted. It takes more than the weapon itself to launch a successful precision strike.

Marcus Hellyer is ASPI’s senior analyst for defence economics and capability, Nathan Ruser is a researcher at ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre and Aakriti Bachhawat is a researcher with ASPI’s defence and strategy program.

https://thewire.in/security/balakot-...ellite-imagery

An analyst i was following questioned the use of SPICE bombs with under 100kg of explosive instead of larger bombs. If the idea was to make a point then shouldn't the IAF have taken out the entire infrastructure ? no buildings standing, nothing. Use a sledge hammer for a fly. Then there would be no doubt of damage caused. It would be very clear.

That is if making a show was the primary intent.

I think the intent was to get the people inside and reduce collateral damage. The collateral damage was small that it left the buildings standing. The world's media join in. Provide an off ramp for the Paks. There is less reason to reciprocate with equally damaging bombs from the PAF. In addition it complicates the PAF's response. What do they counter with ?

Where these analyses get it wrong is if the SPICE bombs miss you get a mound of earth. There is no explosion. So the initial photos that appeared of the site with charred areas were all bunk. Those areas were used for IED testing by the militant trainers. So clearly this camp was in use and not abandoned years ago.

The IAF chief confirmed we got the people inside which were the real target. Mission accomplished.

[Double Edge]

The intent was as stated by the DG ISPR - an Indian violation and bombing of Pakistani territory (admittedly with no damage or casualties) was responded to in order to demonstrate Pakistani capability and intent to not let any such actions go unchallenged or without response. The DG ISPR made clear in the first press conference after the Pakistani strikes that empty spaces (by Indian military installations) were deliberately targeted to avoid any casualties (given that the Indian strikes inflicted no casualties). The point being made was that had India inflicted casualties in Pakistan, or were to inflict casualties at a future date, the Pakistani response would be to target the Indian military and inflict casualties.

Then it was symbolic. A demonstration of intent. Like a warning.

There will be people who disagree with this though as it seems like a lot for very little. You are also risking jets all for what.

So you get the other argument which is PAF intended to do more but were dissuaded. Wouldn't they be fully motivated to do that after being unable to prevent the strike the day before. By the time the first PAF jets were airborne, the Mirages had already returned to base.

The Indian objective with Balakote was very clear.

[antimony]

More independent satellite imagery analysis debunking Indian claims of any actual damage being inflicted (responses to some of the previous posts to follow as I get time):

India crossed deep into Pakistani airspace, across the IB and came back unscathed. Pakistan's response actually ended up costing Pakistan more. Stupid India politicians and journos have mucked up this huge disruption with talk about number of bodies etc.

That does not erase the fact that Pakistan's red lines have been crossed with negligible effect. That is the big takeaway.

I think Pakistan should cut down all of its developmental budget and focus on building up its military. Pakistan needs a robust miliatary to ward off the saffron thread across the border, which after all is an existensial crisis ;)

[Agnostic Muslim]

An analyst i was following questioned the use of SPICE bombs with under 100kg of explosive instead of larger bombs. If the idea was to make a point then shouldn't the IAF have taken out the entire infrastructure ? no buildings standing, nothing. Use a sledge hammer for a fly. Then there would be no doubt of damage caused. It would be very clear.

That is if making a show was the primary intent.

I think the intent was to get the people inside and reduce collateral damage. The collateral damage was small that it left the buildings standing. The world's media join in. Provide an off ramp for the Paks. There is less reason to reciprocate with equally damaging bombs from the PAF. In addition it complicates the PAF's response. What do they counter with ?

Where these analyses get it wrong is if the SPICE bombs miss you get a mound of earth. There is no explosion. So the initial photos that appeared of the site with charred areas were all bunk. Those areas were used for IED testing by the militant trainers. So clearly this camp was in use and not abandoned years ago.

The IAF chief confirmed we got the people inside which were the real target. Mission accomplished.

India crossed deep into Pakistani airspace, across the IB and came back unscathed. Pakistan's response actually ended up costing Pakistan more. Stupid India politicians and journos have mucked up this huge disruption with talk about number of bodies etc.

That does not erase the fact that Pakistan's red lines have been crossed with negligible effect. That is the big takeaway.

I think Pakistan should cut down all of its developmental budget and focus on building up its military. Pakistan needs a robust miliatary to ward off the saffron thread across the border, which after all is an existensial crisis ;)

We have, at this point, multiple independent satellite image analyses - none of them show damage, or, if we are to go by the latest Indian theory thrown out there (of sufficiently small warheads as to only cause damage internal to the structures), ingress points on the roofs of any of the structures at the compound. The latest report I posted also correlates the different craters as being at similar distances from the different buildings, suggesting largely the same error (unintentional or intentional) in targeting.

Add in the reporting by various international and local media organizations and journalists, that includes interviews with locals (absolutely consistent to a man on no civilian casualties), and what you have is a clear picture of the IAF completely missing the Madrassa compound structures.

So if the 'mission' was to 'demonstrate intent' (as the PAF did and the DG ISPR made clear from the beginning) and avoid any actual damage, then the Indian government has done a horrible job of conveying that message and undermined it by claiming non-existent casualties with allegations that continue to get debunked again and again by independent reporting and analysis.

Additionally, India gave Pakistan a reason to retaliate, and retaliate in a manner where the declared objectives and messaging was clear and consistent - the objectives were met, and to cap it all off, at least one IAF fighter shot down and pilot captured (though of course Pakistan is also claiming an SU 30, as seen by the recent PAF patches).

[Double Edge]

We have, at this point, multiple independent satellite image analyses - none of them show damage, or, if we are to go by the latest Indian theory thrown out there (of sufficiently small warheads as to only cause damage internal to the structures), ingress points on the roofs of any of the structures at the compound. The latest report I posted also correlates the different craters as being at similar distances from the different buildings, suggesting largely the same error (unintentional or intentional) in targeting.

It's no theory, see Israeli AF footage of their bombs in action. It amuses me they had to put this video out to educate the world because there is an impression that their bombs are duds : D

This is the report showing where the damage was done. Same kind of damage.

these independent analyses are looking in the wrong place.

Add in the reporting by various international and local media organizations and journalists, that includes interviews with locals (absolutely consistent to a man on no civilian casualties), and what you have is a clear picture of the IAF completely missing the Madrassa compound structures.

Posted a video of an italian journalist who did her own reporting via discrete interviews of people from the area and the figure of 35-40 casualties taken away in ambulances. You keep forgetting that the area is closed off to anyone.

So if the 'mission' was to 'demonstrate intent' (as the PAF did and the DG ISPR made clear from the beginning) and avoid any actual damage, then the Indian government has done a horrible job of conveying that message and undermined it by claiming non-existent casualties with allegations that continue to get debunked again and again by independent reporting and analysis.

The high number of casualties was mentioned by one of the politicians based on earlier intel reports that mentioned number of mobile connections in that area. Three hundred odd. Speculative.

The foreign secretary said high number. Well how much is a high number. The 40 CRPF killed in Pulwama is a high number too.

Additionally, India gave Pakistan a reason to retaliate, and retaliate in a manner where the declared objectives and messaging was clear and consistent - the objectives were met, and to cap it all off, at least one IAF fighter shot down and pilot captured (though of course Pakistan is also claiming an SU 30, as seen by the recent PAF patches).

That demonstration is a high price for no return. That is why i'm sceptical of the ISPR's statement and indeed those on my side saying it was only symbolic.

I don't know what the PAF objectives were, if i were to guess a reprisal on the Nagrota army HQ and possible other military installations. Not demonstration actually hit something important otherwise there is no point.

If an Su30 was captured where is the footage of the wreck ? if not wreck then at least parts. That would not be withheld by Pakistan.

video i linked shows a drop tank that is much larger than anything the IAF uses. We think that's the F16

Another reason to doubt the ISPR statement is he said no F16's were used when we displayed the remainder of the AMRAAM. Only F16 uses AMRAAM.

Earlier ISPR said they had two Indian pilots then it became one pilot. India isn't asking for the second one.

The statements are inconsistent and don't encourage confidence.

[antimony]

I really don't see the balance flipping. If India strikes, Pakistan will strike back, and the pressure, as seen with the recent incidents, will be on India to not escalate further.

Pakistan isn't going to back down, and Pakistan demonstrated that. We're not going to sit back and be scapegoated for Indian security failures in IOK.

India has crossed the IB with its IAF. In the counterattack, both countries lost a place each, and PAF lost a pilot. That is the India view. Pakistan's red lines have been crossed.

But please continue to believe that nothing has changed

[Double Edge]

The obvious conclusion, given that parts of all 4 A2A missiles from the Mig-21 Bison have been recovered (two clearly not fired and 2 with parts still attached to the Mig-21 wreckage) refute Indian claims of the Abhinandan's Mig-21 getting off any misiles and therefore could not have possibly shot down any PAF aircraft, unless of course the Indians now want to change that claim to one where Abhinandan used the auto-cannon.

Abhi confirmed at debriefing he had visual of the F16 going down and the kill has been attributed to him. Only one missile was fired.

https://www.livefistdefence.com/2019...kill-shot.html

Where have you seen Indians changing claims in this affair ?

The Indian defence minister stated in an official press conference that the 'Indian evidence' was based on a facebook post (a post that had already been debunked by various organizations), and that the Indian government 'knew the name of the F-16 pilot' (which still has not been released by the GoI).

heh, got any links ?

What surprises me is she's not been talking about Balakote much at all as if she isn't even in the loop instead its the FM doing the talking.

The fact is that you could see swarms of people with cell phones/smart phones swarming around the wreckage and the Indian pilot, so for you to argue that somehow an F-16 crash has remained hidden is just ludicrous.

The Pak army appears, says, hand over the phones and that nothing happened. That's it.

That is exactly what happened when the ambulances appeared to take out dead bodies from that camp in Balakote.

[kuku]

You see the Pakistan info-war strategy here.

They are talking jack shit about organisations run by pakistani citizens under the direct protection of pakistani establishment killing indian, afghani, iranian, and american soldiers and citizens.
Instead, all the bullshit about the responses to those actions.

[Agnostic Muslim]

It's no theory, see Israeli AF footage of their bombs in action. It amuses me they had to put this video out to educate the world because there is an impression that their bombs are duds : D

This is the report showing where the damage was done. Same kind of damage.

these independent analyses are looking in the wrong place.

Then , according to you, what is the 'correct place'? You do realize how absurd your defence sounds don't you? Every independent analysis and all the independent reporting on Balakot is wrong, but Indian reporting (without any evidence to support it) is accurate. You are also ignoring the points raised in the latest satellite imagery analysis - there are no visible ingress points in the roof of any of the structures. Regardless of small you want to claim the explosives as being, there would still be ingress points visible in the roofs. They aren't there. Additionally, the craters themselves line up with the buildings, all at a similar distance from them pointing to a similar targeting error.

Posted a video of an italian journalist who did her own reporting via discrete interviews of people from the area and the figure of 35-40 casualties taken away in ambulances. You keep forgetting that the area is closed off to anyone.

I already addressed that in my response to antimony earlier. Banned from Pakistan, known Baloch terrorist sympathizer, had no first hand information to offer and quoted 'anonymous sources' as is usual. Contrast this with multiple international and local media organizations reporting first hand from the ground in Balakot, separately interviewing locals and getting the same answers, all contradicting this 'Italian journalist' and Indian claims.

The fact remains that you have no evidence to support any of the Indian claims, while there is overwhelming evidence supporting the Pakistani claims.

The high number of casualties was mentioned by one of the politicians based on earlier intel reports that mentioned number of mobile connections in that area. Three hundred odd. Speculative.

The foreign secretary said high number. Well how much is a high number. The 40 CRPF killed in Pulwama is a high number too.

Sure, one wounded old man because the windows in his home shattered due to the blasts, a dead crow and several destroyed trees - I suppose from an environmental perspective the Indian strikes were absolutely 'devastating' for the local environment.

That demonstration is a high price for no return. That is why i'm sceptical of the ISPR's statement and indeed those on my side saying it was only symbolic.

I don't know what the PAF objectives were, if i were to guess a reprisal on the Nagrota army HQ and possible other military installations. Not demonstration actually hit something important otherwise there is no point.

That's your view - the way I see it, the demonstration was absolutely necessary for both domestic political reasons and foreign signalling. Another local terrorist attack in J&K (again, no evidence exists that Pulwama was tangibly supported by JeM or Pakistan) is likely not going to be 'broadcast' before it occurs, so unless India shares preemptive evidence with Pakistan and the world, your argument that 'the pressure will be on Pakistan' makes no sense. What will likely occur is that if another terrorist/militant attack occurs in J&K, the pressure will be on India to not respond the way it did in Balakot because Pakistan has clearly demonstrated that it will not hold back and will retaliate and therefore escalate. So the first step in escalation, that the world can apply pressure to prevent, will be an Indian military response against Pakistan, because a Pakistani retaliation to an Indian military strike is now guaranteed.

If an Su30 was captured where is the footage of the wreck ? if not wreck then at least parts. That would not be withheld by Pakistan.

Pakistan has indicated the SU 30 fell on the Indian side, so we wouldn't have the wreck or parts.

video i linked shows a drop tank that is much larger than anything the IAF uses. We think that's the F16

Really? The term 'drop tank' should put to rest this conspiracy theory as well, as in think about the word 'drop'. These are typically released before engagements occur.

Another reason to doubt the ISPR statement is he said no F16's were used when we displayed the remainder of the AMRAAM. Only F16 uses AMRAAM.

I already pointed out to you that the F-16's were on the Pakistani side providing support. No F-16's were used in the actual bombing within IOK, allowing Pakistan to claim 'defensive use' to the US. The ISPR statement is correct in that context. And keep in mind the AMRAAM range.

Earlier ISPR said they had two Indian pilots then it became one pilot. India isn't asking for the second one.

The statements are inconsistent and don't encourage confidence.

Fog of war. There were reports of multiple Indian pilots ejecting (one from the Mig and 2 from the Su 30). Only one landed in Pakistan and Abhinandan was taken to CMH for treatment and monitoring.

[Agnostic Muslim]

India has crossed the IB with its IAF. In the counterattack, both countries lost a place each, and PAF lost a pilot. That is the India view. Pakistan's red lines have been crossed.

But please continue to believe that nothing has changed

Per all the available evidence, India botched the airstrikes in Balakot, killing a bunch of trees and a crow, was unable to prevent the PAF from carrying out warning strikes on Indian military installations, and lost a Mig-21 (ignoring the Su 30 claim due to lack of publicly available evidence) and the pilot was captured by Pakistan.

What's going to happen the next time there's a militant/terrorist attack in India? Knowing the Pakistani response this time, international pressure will be on India to not escalate, especially since it appears that India has neither the intelligence capability (targeting an area from where the JeM training center had been relocated years ago) nor military capability (missing the targets, allowing the PAF to target Indian military installations in response and losing at least one fighter jet to Pakistan). What exactly about the Indian response and actions (based on available evidence) do you think will engender confidence in India's international supporters when it comes to India escalating and carrying out military strikes in Pakistan?

And to reference back to OOE's earlier comment, where he was questioning the lack of Air Defence for Balakot: the Indians knew we were coming, we'd announced it publicly, and we targeted Indian military installations that, unlike some madrassa in the middle of nowhere, should have been heavily defended against exactly this kind of attack.

So, was the Indian military unwilling, incapable or incompetent, that it failed to thwart a Pakistani intrusion that attacked Indian military installations?

[kuku]

O yes, truth is only possible from the glorious Military which didn't accept its dead soldiers during Kargil?
Fighting allah's jihad always, everywhere.....

Masha allah habibi

[kuku]

The Pak army appears, says, hand over the phones and that nothing happened. That's it.
That is exactly what happened when the ambulances appeared to take out dead bodies from that camp in Balakote.

Double Edge hitting your head against a wall multiple times and expecting different results will not happen. I remember 'Agnostic Muslim' fighting the same info-war after Mumbai terrorist attacks and you all discussing the issue with him, as if it would make a difference.
He has made up his mind, the glorious Pakistani army of pure bred Momins is always true, its flag flies high, victory kisses its feet at all corners with blessings of kudha (o sorry, now its only Allah)