Jaish terrorists attack CRPF convoy in Kashmir, 40 killed

[kuku]

Our justification was non-military, pre-emptive against militants.

Not on Pak state, its military or people.

For them to hit a military camp in response is an escalation on their part or can we just call it a provocation.

If indeed they have the green signal to attack Indian military targets through air, you will soon see them try again. (as this means that they have the clearance to start a limited war across the LOC, which will be more intense than Kargil).

If not, then they did what they had to do and now want to go back to the good old days of proxy wars.

I think they were doing what they said, trying to drop bombs anywhere for the heck of it and go back, and they botched up this as well by loosing an fighter plane while doing it, but then they got lucky and one IAF pilot ejected straight into PoK.

[kuku]

By the way, India has a very sharp eye over Pakistan through Synthetic Aperture Radar Satellites (The RISAT system developed with Israel).
So they do have very good quality images of their site of attack (day/night, and all weather imaging capability) for analysis, even without flying drones over Paksitan.

[Double Edge]

If indeed they have the green signal to attack Indian military targets through air, you will soon see them try again. (as this means that they have the clearance to start a limited war across the LOC, which will be more intense than Kargil).

If not, then they did what they had to do and now want to go back to the good old days of proxy wars.

I think they were doing what they said, trying to drop bombs anywhere for the heck of it and go back, and they botched up this as well by loosing an fighter plane while doing it, but then they got lucky and one IAF pilot ejected straight into PoK.

So now the ball is in our court. Do we reply to the provocation ?

I don't know if we have escalation dominance but we have several conventional options to escalate.

I think the idea is to keep tensions up for a bit so as to create an enduring impression. Not that it is the final solution to proxies but like Doklam lasted 72 days i expect this state of tension to continue maybe for some more time.

We've learned an important lesson since Operation Prakaram. Do not mass troops on the border as that gets other world powers jumpy. World leaders flying into Delhi to mediate only helps the Paks internationalise the problem.

[Double Edge]

By the way, India has a very sharp eye over Pakistan through Synthetic Aperture Radar Satellites (The RISAT system developed with Israel).
So they do have very good quality images of their site of attack (day/night, and all weather imaging capability) for analysis, even without flying drones over Paksitan.

Question is whether those images will ever be released. I see quite a few calls from people saying where is the proof.

Does that need to be made public ?

Surely only the powers that be need to know and they know already what did and did not happen. This time as well as the last one.

There is future value here. Can always release revealing pics to embarass the Paks later.

[Double Edge]

Interesting report

24 Pak Jets Tried To Cross Over, Intercepted By 8 Air Force Fighters | NDTV | Feb 28 2019

24PAF engaged by 8 IAF resulting in one of the biggest dogfights in recent history any where in the world

Our captured pilot will be released tomorrow as a peace gesture, courtesy Imran : )

[kuku]

Question is whether those images will ever be released. I see quite a few calls from people saying where is the proof.
Does that need to be made public ?
Surely only the powers that be need to know and they know already what did and did not happen. This time as well as the last one.
There is future value here. Can always release revealing pics to embarass the Paks later.

From the prospective of judging the effectiveness of the strike in balakot. We have the capability to access with very high accuracy the damage done.
As for releasing images for physiological warfare, i think much smarter minds than me are at work. I would not release them, would much rather use commercially available images for that.

[Double Edge]

Reasonably attractive news..

[kuku]

So now the ball is in our court. Do we reply to the provocation ?

I don't know if we have escalation dominance but we have several conventional options to escalate.

I think the idea is to keep tensions up for a bit so as to create an enduring impression. Not that it is the final solution to proxies but like Doklam lasted 72 days i expect this state of tension to continue maybe for some more time.

We've learned an important lesson since Operation Prakaram. Do not mass troops on the border as that gets other world powers jumpy. World leaders flying into Delhi to mediate only helps the Paks internationalise the problem.

Yes i agree, and from the latest joint press statement by the three forces, it seems what you said is what is being done right now.

[Oracle]

So now the ball is in our court. Do we reply to the provocation ?

No.

#1. We bombed JeM's camp inside Pak territory, not PoK.
#2. We shot down one PAF's F-16.
#3. They used AARAAM missiles (AIM-120 most probably) to hit one of our Mig-21B, and they captured our pilot, and will be returning him tomorrow.

So, 2-1, letting the whole world know, specially Pakistan, India will not sit quiet to provocations from across the border, and we will hit them where we see fit, deep inside Pak, or take out camps in PoK. Next mass casualty on the Indian side, and we're looking at conventional missiles (Brahmos et al) being employed for deep strikes inside Pakistan.

I don't know if we have escalation dominance but we have several conventional options to escalate.

Don't understand in which context you have put it.

#1. If it's nuclear, we rain a barrage of conventional missiles and take those out before they hit us, at least this is what should be the strategy, if not we have to hustle harder. WIP I assume.

#2. If it's conventional, we block Pak's SLOC for a start, after that there are many options. We destroy Pak's C4ISR, and leave the Paks deaf, dumb and blind. For all these, India needs to build up on Humint, Imint, Signit, Techint, Comint. This will be a 21st century war, which we cannot win using 20th century weapons and tactics (Mig-21 for example).

#3. Either way, nuclear or conventional, Pak doesn't win this war.

I think the idea is to keep tensions up for a bit so as to create an enduring impression. Not that it is the final solution to proxies but like Doklam lasted 72 days i expect this state of tension to continue maybe for some more time.

We've learned an important lesson since Operation Prakaram. Do not mass troops on the border as that gets other world powers jumpy. World leaders flying into Delhi to mediate only helps the Paks internationalise the problem.

I'd like to think so.

If you'd noticed, since the Pulwama attack, Imran Khan has been coming on Pak TV and re-iterating that should India give proof, and he'd definitely start an investigation. This message came from the PA. PA's proxies killed a lot this time, and they were nervous of the repercussions. India hit JeM camp, and Khan still wanted to calm down the situation by calling for talks, while saying they will respond (have to look good infront of their armchair warriors). India however was reluctant for any talks.

Also, their foreign minister sent TJanuja to the UN to complain about Indian aggression, LOL, if India didn't bomb JeM's abdul camp, why complain. The Paks were also busy asking US & Chinese particularly, to help in mediation, which I think helped them a bit and they got ready to release the Indian pilot in their captivity without any discussion, as India has already stated there'd be no discussion for the pilot's release.

India has climbed the escalation ladder and Paks knows about it now. There goes the nuclear blackmail theory in the shredder, and with it I think it's safe to assume that those think-tanks and research analysts and all those wanna be FP intellectuals would be jobless in the days to come.

But, the larger questions still remain. Have India learnt from it? Do we still rely on ageing Russian equipments or modernize our inventory on a war-footing? India should not be held captive because the Congress acted pitifully for lost decades and corruption. India should at the very minimum spend 3.5% of its GDP on defense for the next 2 decades, if it wants to catch up.

[Oracle]

Question is whether those images will ever be released. I see quite a few calls from people saying where is the proof.

Does that need to be made public ?

Surely only the powers that be need to know and they know already what did and did not happen. This time as well as the last one.

There is future value here. Can always release revealing pics to embarass the Paks later.

IAF shows parts of Amraam missile, says evidence confirms MiG-21 shot down Pakistan's F-16



Reminds me of what g00f said once - good crew in a crap boat is better, than crap crew in a good boat. Something like that.

Joint press briefing by Army, Navy, Air Force: Highlights





What helped the release of the Mig-21 pilot is, most probably, US' intransigence on not listening the Pak PoV (lies) this time. The Paks had to do this (Geneva convention notwithstanding) to lift the pressure off their military. When did the Paks care about the Geneva convention anyway.

Just in, Pakistani eyewitness recounts IAF pilot's dramatic capture

[Double Edge]

Don't understand in which context you have put it.

#1. If it's nuclear, we rain a barrage of conventional missiles and take those out before they hit us, at least this is what should be the strategy, if not we have to hustle harder. WIP I assume.

#2. If it's conventional, we block Pak's SLOC for a start, after that there are many options. We destroy Pak's C4ISR, and leave the Paks deaf, dumb and blind. For all these, India needs to build up on Humint, Imint, Signit, Techint, Comint. This will be a 21st century war, which we cannot win using 20th century weapons and tactics (Mig-21 for example).

#3. Either way, nuclear or conventional, Pak doesn't win this war.

Nuclear is out, i was referring to conventional. If we had escalation dominance then the Paks wouldn't have attempted to send 24 of their jets into our space ?

Unless it was just face saving, still i don't think their intent was innocent had our guys not engaged they'd be more casualties and damage to military installations. In that sense they would be the ones committing an act of war which we would have to react to.

India has climbed the escalation ladder and Paks knows about it now. There goes the nuclear blackmail theory in the shredder, and with it I think it's safe to assume that those think-tanks and research analysts and all those wanna be FP intellectuals would be jobless in the days to come.

This is from Sept 2002

https://www.upi.com/Outside-View-Ind...4471030900596/

But, the larger questions still remain. Have India learnt from it? Do we still rely on ageing Russian equipments or modernize our inventory on a war-footing? India should not be held captive because the Congress acted pitifully for lost decades and corruption. India should at the very minimum spend 3.5% of its GDP on defense for the next 2 decades, if it wants to catch up.

If we try to catch up then our chances of escalation dominance improve.

[Double Edge]

Some interesting questions and points being made here about perception

If we can't stomach the capture of one soldier how do we push our soldiers to fight terrorists in Pakistan

Did social media in India ie twitter reactions after his capture was made public overshadow the previous day's victory ?

The free Abhinandan hashtag originated in Pakistan, not India. With the aim to bring India to the negotiating table. Tactical manouver through social media ; )

Have to agree with Iyer Mitra's tweet that the moment Abinandan's video was made public that it automatically saved him. There was no way the paks would harm him after. Princess Latifah used the same reasoning when she released her video on youtube.

[Double Edge]

the Great Idiots in USA have given Pakistan F-16s, BVR missiles, EW equipments etc. etc. for fighting terrorists in mountains, as a gift for killing their soldiers in Afghanistan. The irony was these weapons were the ones Indian Air Force feared while bombing the very guys who killed American soldiers along with ours, and again these weapons are the ones PAF used to shoot our guys down. Thank god TRUMP had the guts to stop it unlike the noble peace price winner Obaba

Exactly, those F16s, BVR missiels, EW are to be used for fighting terrorists in the mountains and not for offensive operations against us.

This is why they keep denying F-16's were used at all during their strike.

And so we show below to the world how well they are honouring those conditions. This is something they will have to answer to their weapons supplier.

IAF shows parts of Amraam missile, says evidence confirms MiG-21 shot down Pakistan's F-16

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Reminds me of what g00f said once - good crew in a crap boat is better, than crap crew in a good boat. Something like that.

Joint press briefing by Army, Navy, Air Force: Highlights

[ATTACH]47442[/ATTACH]
[ATTACH]47443[/ATTACH]
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What helped the release of the Mig-21 pilot is, most probably, US' intransigence on not listening the Pak PoV (lies) this time. The Paks had to do this (Geneva convention notwithstanding) to lift the pressure off their military. When did the Paks care about the Geneva convention anyway.

Just in, Pakistani eyewitness recounts IAF pilot's dramatic capture

[667medic]

The engine part shown is supposed to be from F110-GE-129 but ***** are claiming online that they use F100-PW-229 in their planes. However, one online Indian news paper mentions that Paks use F110-GE-129 for the Block 50, and the F100-PW-229 for the Block 52.

https://theprint.in/defence/pakistan...damage/199482/

[667medic]

The F-16 pilot who died in the incident is Wing Commander Shahzaz Ud Din of No 19 Squadron which belongs to PAF's F-16 Squadron (Sherdils)
http://idrw.org/air-marshal-raghunat...ian-mig-21bis/

This was immediately refuted by Paks as Sherdils are a non-combat unit that perform aerobatic display.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sherdils

However, the PAF's own publication mentions No 19 Squadron as Sherdils equipped with Jordanian F-16.
http://www.paf.gov.pk/news/uploaded/1400801315.pdf