CPEC and Developments

[Double Edge]

It was not left open, the intent of the port wasn't military to begin with. If the final agreement bars military purposes then it means no military purposes.

Now tell me again where the Chinese military have taken over a port in SL ?

First Chinese project in Sri Lanka, actually a gift.

[Oracle]

Xi Jinping offers fresh $295 million grant to Sri Lanka in push for dominance

[Oracle]

Chinese 'highway to nowhere' haunts Montenegro

[Double Edge]

There is no expansive revolutionary ideology with China like there was with the Soviets.

What do you think OBOR/BRI is? The method is different that is all. Anyway, we're getting OT perhaps.

let's explore this further : )

OBOR to me seems like the what the Euros were doing before the colonial phase began. As opposed to a communist ideology where the political system changes as a result of a faction that is pro-communist getting into office

Euros came as traders which then grew into bigger ambitions.

See, the temptation is to say surely as night follows day that the Chinese will emulate this model.

This has been the mantra right from the start. It happened before, it will happen again. Fatalist bla bla. No other possibility. Really ?

See what Skywathcer said

With the influence that comes from controlling a major infrastructure piece for a decade or so, China would bake a lot of value in the socio-economic relationships in a place like that.

I'll be surprised if China bothers keeping that concession for 15, or 20 years at the most. The idea is to use it in that time to leverate the locals to use Chinese industrial and engineering standards, have Chinese companies be the preferred source of ToT, go to Chinese higher education for graduate studies and local exporters focus on selling to China.

Does not look like communism to me. Neither is neo-colonialism a given.

Remember that the Japanese have been at this game since the 50s and worldwide. What was the result. Propel japan to second biggest economy within a few decades. So what the Chinese are doing has already been done. The difference is the Chinese charge more.

In an earlier avatar, the Japanese did have an empire so right up there in the colonial stakes in their near abroad and started a war with the Americans. The way the Japanese entered was to get the leader of the country to invite them ostensibly for defense of the land and by extension the regime. Said leader was already weak and eventually got replaced by a Japanese administrator. Think Korea in the early 1900's and China a couple of decades later.

[Double Edge]

Xi Jinping offers fresh $295 million grant to Sri Lanka in push for dominance

See, the problem i have with the title is this word dominance

Why not say sweetner given that Sirisena

.. had at the start of his term suspended most of the Chinese-backed infrastructure projects started under Rajapaksa over suspected corruption, overpricing and for flouting government procedures.

Most likely China will try the same in Malaysia. In fact you could say the whole plan right from the start was to squeeze some more out of the chinese.

This is the Chinese lobby at work like lobbies anywhere in the world. If its so ominous then maybe SL needs to enact some transparency laws for political campaign financing.

[Double Edge]

Precarious ?

Buyer’s Remorse: Pakistan’s Elections And The Precarious Future Of The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor | WOTR | Jul 27 2018

In the aftermath of the elections, Beijing will be watching closely to see whether a government led by Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party has the capacity, the will, and the political space to deal with the growing list of economic challenges that affect China’s most prominent connectivity project. If not, Pakistan faces a real risk that China will discreetly unwind its bet, backing away from the strengthened political commitment to the relationship that Pakistan has been enjoying since 2015, instead once again imposing more constraints on the scope of its support.

While Pakistan’s army remains the fulcrum for Sino-Pakistani ties, it can help to guarantee and secure CPEC but it cannot implement it. For that, China has needed a civilian government that is broadly economically competent, corrupt only to a modest degree, and able to focus a healthy amount of political energy on executing the plans. The Chinese also believed that CPEC would strongly benefit from continuity within the Pakistani government.

It was no secret, then, that Chinese officials quietly favored a second term for then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). This preference ran up and down the system. China praised the province of Punjab, led by the prime minister’s brother, Shehbaz Sharif, as by far the most effective at executing CPEC projects on schedule.

This is not to say that China had a problem with other parties. The Pakistani People’s Party (PPP) had been supportive from the start, with former president Asif Ali Zardari gaining credit for getting CPEC in motion during his term in office, particularly his role in persuading the reluctant Chinese to take on the difficult task of making Gwadar port functional. Political tensions with Khan and the PTI in the early stages of the project, when Beijing was troubled by repeated criticisms over transparency and routes, have mostly been resolved. The PTI-run Khyber-Pakhtunkwa provincial government, whom the Chinese had privately criticized, ultimately got on the CPEC train. Still, there was little question that the PML-N got the discreet nod from Beijing.

Whereas in the past China had consistently flagged security threats as the number one challenge facing CPEC, now Chinese officials and experts privately indicated that domestic political issues had become the principal source of anxiety. Meanwhile, plans for the next stages of CPEC essentially went into stasis. Existing projects are being implemented on the ground, but there has been no serious progress on the intended focal point of CPEC’s second phase: industrial cooperation and the Chinese-style special economic zones, which was supposed to be the part of the initiative that generated jobs, exports and growth. While the slowdown is not solely the result of the political situation, my private discussions suggest it is heavily conditioned by domestic politics.

Chinese wanted Nawaz again, but alas...

[Double Edge]

Everyone goes on about Hambantota & Gwadar. Who remembers Sonadia ?

Dhaka cancels port to be built by China, India eyes another | TOI | Feb 08 2016

Dhaka has cancelled a port that China proposed to build at Sonadia, on the south-eastern corner of Bangladesh, which if completed would have brought the Chinese presence close to India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

While the official reason for cancellation of the Sonadia port was lack of commercial viability,the Japan-developed Matarbari is only 25km away. China had not only prepared a feasibility study for Sonadia, it had reportedly promised deep funding for the port.

The cancellation of Sonadia is clearly a strategic decision by Bangladesh, doubtlessly helped along by India, Japan and the US.

[Oracle]

BRI a made in China, made for China initiative: US official

[Double Edge]

BRI a made in China, made for China initiative: US official

His comments came ahead of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is set to make major policy initiative announcement for the Indo-Pacific region during the first Indo-Pacific Business Forum hosted by US Chambers of Commerce.

"I would not say that this (new economic engagement) is a strategy to counter the one belt, one road," Hook said.

"The belt and road is for the moment China's way of doing things. It is a made in China, made for China initiative," he said.

Asserting that the US and its economic engagement benefits the Indo-Pacific region, Hook said that the Trump administration believes that America's model of economic engagement is the "healthiest" for the nations in the region.

Looks like the third alternative after the Asia Africa growth corridor

The initiatives to be announced at the Forum by the Trump administration is meant to advance America's cooperation with its partners and to encourage new forms of collaboration between the United States and Indo-Pacific nation.

Those initiatives need to be unpacked

[Oracle]

X-posting from another thread - From a Space Station in Argentina, China Expands Its Reach in Latin America - TheNewYorkTimes

[Oracle]

Wary of China's rise, Pompeo announces U.S. initiatives in emerging Asia

US warns IMF against bailout for Pakistan

'No Cambodia left': how Chinese money is changing Sihanoukville

[Oracle]

Pakistan in a weak position in FTA with China

Although China calls Pakistan and itself iron brothers, when it comes to trade, Pakistan stands at a weaker position in comparison to India, which is Beijing’s adversary in regional politics but has a better free trade agreement (FTA).

And, At least six people, including three Chinese nationals, were injured on Saturday in a suicide attack on a convoy of Saindak project employees in Chaghai district.

[Oracle]

U.S.' Pompeo warns against IMF bailout for Pakistan that aids China

Oh ho! Getting squeezed again.

[Double Edge]

And, At least six people, including three Chinese nationals, were injured on Saturday in a suicide attack on a convoy of Saindak project employees in Chaghai district.

This is about resource sharing. China can exploit all they want so long as some of the proceeds make its way back to the local communities.

This reminds me of the 80's and separatists in Assam wanting independence because oil was found there. How is Digboi doing these days ?

U.S.' Pompeo warns against IMF bailout for Pakistan that aids China

Oh ho! Getting squeezed again.

Can be difficult to separate out what the IMF money is being used for. Though keep in mind that IMF money comes with strict conditionalities. IMF is what keeps the PA afloat, any crimping of supply here will have far reaching effects. It's not clear what role Imran can play here.

I expect the Chinese $1bn infusion recently was precisely to keep the Paks afloat so they could continue repayments to the Chinese.

[Double Edge]

India's problem with the Maldives. Listen to what the cdr says. The Maldivians don't want us tracking the Chinese there. They want our security personnel stationed there out.