Exploring Pakistan’s Nuclear Thresholds – Analysis

[S2]

OoE Reply

Colonel,

You open the floor on this matter so let's explore it. America, without question, conveyed our determination and stark perspective post 9/11 to Pakistan.

Still, however much Musharraf would like to caricaturize America as a raving bully by insinuating "stone age" we left how matters would proceed to them. So what we have is Pakistan wishing to have their cake and eat it too.

We MIGHT have made war upon Pakistan had they chosen to openly obstruct our post 9/11 immediate plans in Afghanistan. We, however, didn't say as much nor remotely suggest "stone age".

OTOH, how much was Pakistan presuming immediately post 9/11 regarding America? Did their own threat analysis suggest the possibility that we might make war upon them? If so, then were they likely to perceive any hint at our determination to take action in Afghanistan as a suggestion that Pakistan couldn't be far behind should they choose an open rejection?

Sir, this is conjecture. We don't actually KNOW what the ISI's independant analysis following 9/11 might have been. We can, however, presume that there'd been intensive meetings in Islamabad/Rawalpindi almost immediately following the attacks.

I can't speak for the actual level of fear and trepidation existing among them at the time but if we leveraged that obliquely then that certainly shouldn't be surprising to anybody.

[snapper]

Perhaps Pakistan requires no psychological testing? Let's grab them now?

[Tinu]

The other axiom that is equally important, never over-estimate them either.

Agreed sir, but how do explain when your own Secretary Defence, when he was the Director CIA stated in May 2009 that the US did not know the location of all of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. As he admitted: “Obviously we try to understand where all these are located. We don’t have, frankly, the intelligence to know where they are all located.” He also conceded that the US was confident that the Pakistan government had a “pretty secure approach to try to protect these weapons.”

Pakistan Expanding Nuclear Sites: India Tests Nuke Missile

The examples you gave does not counter nuclear detection by the US.

Yeah sure and as you are seeking such duds since 1950s, that reason you couldn’t identify it because the stuff needed for 1998 Indians explosions was grown by the Indians in Pokharan. C’mon sir, this was a valid example.

Pakistan is certainly no God. And here you go



It's open source too.

Off-course its open source, that is why on the top left hand side it is clearly written POSSIBLE Pakistani Nuclear Storage Area.

When did Pakistan became part of Skunkworks?

Please see General Wes Clark’s interviews and speeches on you tube.

If you want to discuss the Iraq War, there's 100 pages of it here and the details of planning and execution failures have been examined in minute detail. Needless to say, it does not support your premise that the Americans are lacking in nuclear weapons detection.

OK. Please refer to Mr. Panetta’s statement then.

2011 United States is 30 years technological ahead of Cold War US. To give you a perspective on the difference in mathematics. We can detect Jupiter size planets in other star systems now.

Yes sir, you certainly can detect juniper size planets in other star systems. :) We were talking earthly things and one such being is Mr. Panetta with his statement.

Pakistani lack of success in evicting the Taliban has kept this contingency alive.

Sir, has the mighty Americans thrown out Taliban from Afghanistan yet. Accuse us when you do that.
And thank God for sure, the Americans don’t have nuclear weapons in Afghanistan because most of American weapons and equipment is sold in Peshawar bazaars – before you leap to the conclusion that Taliban may take over Pak nukes because they are there in Pakistan also.

Then, let me put in terms you can understand. Your 1998 nukes were duds.

Sir, I agree with you and oh, I think both countries mated the duds, which both had readied many many years before 1998.

Fine. Give me the Order of Battle and the Direct Chains of Command. Put up or shut up.

Sir, Indians have two Prithvi based Missile Groups (333 and 334) and two Agni based Missile Groups (444 and 555). Two Missile Groups known as squadrons (2203 Squadron is known) for the Air Force and one known for the Navy. They also stated in 2007 that they will raise a Brahmos Missile Group as well.

Hypersonic missile threat | Pitts Report

Indian Army to form BrahMos missile group - Frontier India - News, Analysis, Opinion

And sir, I’ll continue to put up and won’t shut up because I learn from you – no matter how many times you tell me to shut up. :)

[Tinu]

Perhaps Pakistan requires no psychological testing? Let's grab them now?

Agreed sir that they don't have over 50 years of psychological testing, yet they do have over 13 years of on-job training. And over 10000 troops under a Major General are guarding such facilities. Try and grabin'em ............. :)

[Tinu]

Your own words are joke to you?



BTW, I haven't seen one link backing up your claims.

Totally OT. May I ask if Pakistan is so great country, what are you doing in the UK?

Doktor, I meant what I said as a complement to you for explaining my one para rhetoric in one simple straight line. The laugh however, was for the gentleman you responded to.

Pakistan indeed is a great country from the sea to the prime desert to the plains and to the mountains which hold eight of the highest peaks in the world.

My girlfriend lives in London - and as all gentlemen are afraid of their ladies, how can I dare not fly her flag :)

[antimony]

Sir, Indians have two Prithvi based Missile Groups (333 and 334) and two Agni based Missile Groups (444 and 555). Two Missile Groups known as squadrons (2203 Squadron is known) for the Air Force and one known for the Navy. They also stated in 2007 that they will raise a Brahmos Missile Group as well.

Hypersonic missile threat | Pitts Report

Indian Army to form BrahMos missile group - Frontier India - News, Analysis, Opinion

And sir, I’ll continue to put up and won’t shut up because I learn from you – no matter how many times you tell me to shut up. :)

The first link is a lengthy article on India's various missile systems, nothing about ORBAT or command structure. The second one is a link that just talks about induction of the Brahmos into the army, not into the Strategic Forces Command, which is in charge of the nuclear arsenal and the body responsible to the Indian NCA.

I could not find any mentioned of either the Indian SFC or any Pakistani version of such in either article, so not exactly sure how any of these two pieces of info answer the Colonel's query on the ORBAT and Command Chain of Indian and Pakistani nuclear forces.

[snapper]

Tinu Sir, Should the Pakistani nuclear capability (limited as it is) be in danger of falling into untrustworthy hands it can be and will be removed from those hands, as the Colonel has tried to explain. Should Pakistan initiate a nuclear echchange with India the US would also forced to act on the three to one ratio.

You seem to have a very inflated idea of Pakistans capabalilities and strategic choices should the country either become engaged in war with India or succumb to extremist Islamic factions none of which you provide any evidence for... You either know things which you aren't telling us or you are wrong. Pray tell us the source of your wisdom?

I am not a military type but Pakistan has no permanent nuclear regiments from my understanding whereas India does and the US certainly does. Am I missing something? Nor does Pakistan have warhead 'mated' to missiles for immeadiate use as far as I am aware. Forgive me Sir if I have missed something but the India army is also vastly larger to the Pakistani army. I cannot reason your confidence in Pakistans capabilities...

[Tinu]

The first link is a lengthy article on India's various missile systems, nothing about ORBAT or command structure. The second one is a link that just talks about induction of the Brahmos into the army, not into the Strategic Forces Command, which is in charge of the nuclear arsenal and the body responsible to the Indian NCA.

I could not find any mentioned of either the Indian SFC or any Pakistani version of such in either article, so not exactly sure how any of these two pieces of info answer the Colonel's query on the ORBAT and Command Chain of Indian and Pakistani nuclear forces.

The details of NCA and SFC are available in abundance. It is this Indian Orbat which is rarely available in this manner. Yes sir the article is lengthy one that is why I quoted the relevant aspects and provided a link. Information about Brahmos is not covered in the first link, therefore the second one. Use search provided for searching such length pieces and viola, you'll be there in no time. As the discussion was regarding Indian elements, I posted these for your convenience.

[Tinu]

Tinu Sir, Should the Pakistani nuclear capability (limited as it is) be in danger of falling into untrustworthy hands it can be and will be removed from those hands, as the Colonel has tried to explain. Should Pakistan initiate a nuclear echchange with India the US would also forced to act on the three to one ratio.

You seem to have a very inflated idea of Pakistans capabalilities and strategic choices should the country either become engaged in war with India or succumb to extremist Islamic factions none of which you provide any evidence for... You either know things which you aren't telling us or you are wrong. Pray tell us the source of your wisdom?

I am not a military type but Pakistan has no permanent nuclear regiments from my understanding whereas India does and the US certainly does. Am I missing something? Nor does Pakistan have warhead 'mated' to missiles for immeadiate use as far as I am aware. Forgive me Sir if I have missed something but the India army is also vastly larger to the Pakistani army. I cannot reason your confidence in Pakistans capabilities...

Sir, I am positive that with what I’ve read including the senior US administration officials and even the Indian Chief of Army Staff’s statements about the safety and security of Pak nuclear arsenal, an unauthorized or untrustworthy intrusion is not possible. However, the Americans and the West including India have expressed concerns about the Taliban. Pak Government and at least I am very confident that this is not gonna happen.

The US has never before intrusively intervened in any India Pak conflict. It has always been generation of an outside influence to force the two apart. Both countries have accused the US of siding with the other in all such previous environment. In my opinion, this time on when both the countries possess nuclear weapons, though the US concern would be heightened and they’d be making much serious efforts to stop the environment crossing a certain threshold, Their siding with one nuclear power against the other would be highly improbable (with emphasis). Why? Because the US has many bases in countries which are well within easy ranges of various platforms. The safety of her men and women and the safety of their friends would in my opinion weigh heavily on US nuclear intervention on one side or the other. The pressure mounted by US and others would certainly be very high indeed.

Sir, Pakistan does have a Strategic Force Command and have regular and well trained regiments on its Orbat. Recently, I’ve read somewhere and I am trying to find the link where it has been indicated that mated deployable elements exist.

Sir, Indian Army is 1.3 million strong as compared to Pakistan’s over 500,000 strong. Recently, one of the Indian Chiefs of Army Staff has said that Pakistan has superior tanks – I can find the link. Though India has more artillery pieces, these are Russian origin and most of Pakistani artillery is American origin which in my opinion is much better. However, without going into such details, if we weigh the ratio it is 1:2 point. something, which is good enough for defence, as Pakistan does not have an offensive design like Indian Army. The Indian Generals have mentioned on more than one occasion that their offensive would stop well short of Pakistan’s nuclear thresholds – so the deep strikes to cut Pakistan in different segments of sorts may not happen. . Though some Indian Generals have argued for calling Pakistan’s nuclear bluff, the deterrence has however held so far.

[antimony]

The details of NCA and SFC are available in abundance. It is this Indian Orbat which is rarely available in this manner. Yes sir the article is lengthy one that is why I quoted the relevant aspects and provided a link. Information about Brahmos is not covered in the first link, therefore the second one. Use search provided for searching such length pieces and viola, you'll be there in no time. As the discussion was regarding Indian elements, I posted these for your convenience.

Your exchange with the Colonel went something like this

Originally Posted by Tinu

You have wrong information. Both countries have nuclear commands and these commands have assets directly placed under them and not the Army Commands / Corps Headquarters. In case of Indians however, three of their short range Prithvi Missile Brigades were or may be still under the Army Commands to support operations of their strike corps’.

Fine. Give me the Order of Battle and the Direct Chains of Command. Put up or shut up.

You were expected to provide the ORBAT and Command Structure of the bodies outside the purview of the Army Commands, that would control this arsenal.

You responded with information about India's missile systems, which is not relevant to the question asked.

In multiple exchanges you have asserted that the Pakistani side has assets and delivery systems specifically reserved for a nuclear force, even though there is no discernible evidence of the same.

I would like to ask you again, what information do you have specifically about the Pakistani nuclear commands which are outside the Army Command? And no, just information about the NCA would not suffice as it is simply the policy body. The Indian SFC is already a known entity.

[Tinu]

Your exchange with the Colonel went something like this



You were expected to provide the ORBAT and Command Structure of the bodies outside the purview of the Army Commands, that would control this arsenal.

You responded with information about India's missile systems, which is not relevant to the question asked.

In multiple exchanges you have asserted that the Pakistani side has assets and delivery systems specifically reserved for a nuclear force, even though there is no discernible evidence of the same.

I would like to ask you again, what information do you have specifically about the Pakistani nuclear commands which are outside the Army Command? And no, just information about the NCA would not suffice as it is simply the policy body. The Indian SFC is already a known entity.

The Colonel is a Colonel - I don't take orders from you. And the discussion precedes what you've quoted from. However, the 333 and 334 are Prithvi Missile Groups which being short range have been quoted to be given under command two different Army Commands. The other two 444 and 555 I believe are with the SFC.

Regarding the remaining information you are asking for, find it out yourself and post it here if you so desire, I haven't opened an information booth for you.

[Tinu]

Self deleted. Duplicate.

[antimony]

The Colonel is a Colonel - I don't take orders from you. And the discussion precedes what you've quoted from.

Regarding the remaining information you are asking for, find it out yourself and post it here if you so desire, I haven't opened an information booth for you.

So you do not have anything to back up your claims, thought so

By the way, your snarky tone is not helping your arguments. We have debated these points with the Colonel and other MilProfs, both on the Pakistani and the Indian side, number of times in the past and are more or less aware of the issues and details involved. On this board if someone makes claims around something not generally known or accepted, one is expected to back it up with information. The MilProfs have some leeway based on their training and personal experience, we civvies don't.

Finally, would advice you one again to familiarize yourself with some similar topics already discussed on this board. I recall one thread with an absolutely brilliant string of analysis and exchanges between OOE and Zraver that veered from analysis of events to formulation of a new nuclear strategy. It was a fascinating read, here you go :

http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/sta...lls-us-20.html

[Officer of Engineers]

Agreed sir, but how do explain when your own Secretary Defence, when he was the Director CIA stated in May 2009 that the US did not know the location of all of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. As he admitted: “Obviously we try to understand where all these are located. We don’t have, frankly, the intelligence to know where they are all located.” He also conceded that the US was confident that the Pakistan government had a “pretty secure approach to try to protect these weapons.”

Note what I said. The US has high confidence that she can take out Pakistan's nukes. There are only so many places Pakistan can store her nukes (explained later) and all of them have been identified. Do we know exactly which one has nukes and which one doesn't? Cannot be 100% sure. Can we turn them all into glass and everywhere else that we think there's nukes? Of that, we can be 100% sure.

Yeah sure and as you are seeking such duds since 1950s, that reason you couldn’t identify it because the stuff needed for 1998 Indians explosions was grown by the Indians in Pokharan. C’mon sir, this was a valid example.

No, it is not. South Asian did not warranted a 24/7 watch in 1998. The best was a satellite passing through and that was easily avoided by the Indians who simply did their preparations when the satellite was not overhead. The entire region is now watched 24/7 ranging from foot on the ground to UAVs to geosync satellites.

Off-course its open source, that is why on the top left hand side it is clearly written POSSIBLE Pakistani Nuclear Storage Area.

And here is where you get your lesson. What's more important? Hiding a nuke or protecting it? Suppose you decided to hide it in town or a city? With that many people around, when would the neighbours start noticing something is out of midst and which one can be trusted not to be bribed?

Supposed you found a cave to hide it? What happens if a hiker found it or worst, a company of Taliban fighters?

Ok, you decide to protect it where you hid. How much protection? A single platoon? A company? Considering the fact that the Pakistani Army has come out less than stellar in several company level actions against the Taliban, nothing less than a determined battalion will do. Do you think you can hide an entire battalion from the birds in the sky? Rhetorical.

Now, why is this a suspected sight? Protection is too high for protecting nothing. The layout is conducive to weapons storage but an extreme lack of any activity usually associated with conventional munition storage. Can Dr Kristensen be sure that this is a nuke storage? No, he cannot. Can we be sure that this is on an American nuclear strike list? Yes, we can.

Please see General Wes Clark’s interviews and speeches on you tube.

You can be forgiven for not knowing what non-American NATO militaries (and even a large percent of the American military) think of the man and what his views are worth. Don't raise him as an authority before me.

OK. Please refer to Mr. Panetta’s statement then.

Refer above.

Yes sir, you certainly can detect juniper size planets in other star systems. We were talking earthly things and one such being is Mr. Panetta with his statement.

It's a statement on how we can detect the movement.

Sir, has the mighty Americans thrown out Taliban from Afghanistan yet. Accuse us when you do that.

Afghanistan don't have nukes and Afghanistan is not our home. The same cannot be said of FATA and your Pakistan.

And thank God for sure, the Americans don’t have nuclear weapons in Afghanistan because most of American weapons and equipment is sold in Peshawar bazaars

Horse Puckey! I don't see M1A2 tanks, F-18s, or even HUMVEEs on sale anywhere in Afghanistan.

before you leap to the conclusion that Taliban may take over Pak nukes because they are there in Pakistan also.

The Taliban has mounted attacks on your nuclear facilities. They've tried and continues to try.

Sir, I agree with you and oh, I think both countries mated the duds, which both had readied many many years before 1998.

What of kind of horse puckey is that? When you know the weapon is a dud. You take it off line. Fix it. Then put it back up. You don't leave a dud in service.

Sir, Indians have two Prithvi based Missile Groups (333 and 334) and two Agni based Missile Groups (444 and 555). Two Missile Groups known as squadrons (2203 Squadron is known) for the Air Force and one known for the Navy. They also stated in 2007 that they will raise a Brahmos Missile Group as well.

Only 444 and 555 have been tasked with a nuclear assignments but no intel yet that they have received their nukes. 333 and 334 are tasked with conventional assignments.

BrahMos is a conventional strike platform even though it can accept a nuke but it doesn't need a nuke. It's kinetic kill capability couple with a 500lb bomb is enough to make short work of any stationary target.

Hypersonic missile threat | Pitts Report

Indian Army to form BrahMos missile group - Frontier India - News, Analysis, Opinion

These articles contradict your claims of a nuclear strike force when clearly it is the Army and not the SFC who is raising these regiments.

And sir, I’ll continue to put up and won’t shut up because I learn from you – no matter how many times you tell me to shut up. :)

Anthony already challenged you on this and he is correct.

[Officer of Engineers]

The MilProfs have some leeway based on their training and personal experience, we civvies don't.

Just a quick question. I know it is damned hard to understand that deterrence is not warfighting. But out of curiosity, have you started to appreciate Sundarji's brilliance in this matter?

I know I sound like a broken record when I keep repeating this line but I'm wondering if you can appreciate that line of strategic thought and if so, how long did it took you?