Indian Nuclear Testing

[pChan]

Chinese arsenal is not a first strike one. Besides it has a NFU policy. With 200 odd nukes its not going to take out our full arsenal. But then by raising this question, you are not doubting the credibility of Indias arsenal but the quantity of it.

Chances of chinese first-strike is remote. 200 is probably going to be more than enough to take out India's arsenal provided they know where the arsenal is. Remember India does not have any silos. Even airbases with hardened protection will not withstand thermo-nukes with megaton yields. The question is can they locate the road/rail based solid-fuel rockets. If they can then game over IMHO.

[hammer]

Chances of chinese first-strike is remote. 200 is probably going to be more than enough to take out India's arsenal provided they know where the arsenal is.

Okay, lets assume they manage to find and take out those 65-100 nukes that India's got. What next? What's the next objective? Invasion? 'Coz the story isnt going to end there.

Remember India does not have any silos.

How do you know?

Even airbases with hardened protection will not withstand thermo-nukes with megaton yields. The question is can they locate the road/rail based solid-fuel rockets. If they can then game over IMHO.

David Albright estimates that India has got 4,200 kg of reactor grade plutonium which is enough to build 1,000 nuclear weapons. I dont think that the game is over by long shot. The game would only begin after that.

[Yusuf]

And how easy is it to discover mobile missiles in a 3,000,000 sq Km country?

[hammer]

And how easy is it to discover mobile missiles in a 3,000,000 sq Km country?

Don't underestimate the Chinese.They might send in Jackie Chan on a Commando raid. :))

[Yusuf]

Oh common mate, we are talking serious here.
BTW we have our own Mallika to take care of Jackie.

[hammer]

Hey! I thought we are sharing our fantasies here. Okay, back to topic. :))

[Yusuf]

Right now we are discussing the fantasy of a few people commenting on Indias and Pakistans nukes.
The poor Col has spend two days pondering over it.

[hammer]

And I've been picking his brain through PM all the while. I must confess he has been very patient with us.

[pChan]

I must confess he has been very patient with us.

I second that. The mere fact that he puts up with some of the lesser informed members of this board is testament to his generosity.

[Officer of Engineers]

Gentlemen,

You have no idea how it pleases me to no end that you all are putting on your thinking caps. It doesn't matter if you're wrong but you're willing to explore the concepts. Truth be told, I had the articles for a couple of months now but I was waiting for Hans to update the Indian arsenal before commenting. He did not and then proceeded to state that Pakistan was ahead of India.

I knew that kind of statements was just a powder keg and I sat on the post for 3 days while going through all the knooks and cranies just to understand what was going on, ie why did India decide to slow down and why Pakistan decided to speed up.

To say I was shocked at the intellectual response is a mild understatement. Not only that, it directed me to examine to see if Hans was wrong. Now, Hans, Jeffery, Roberts, et al, are way above me in the nuclear intel field. I would take their word at face value simply by the reputation that they've established. For someone to point me in a direction that I've never considered? Good show. Damned good show.

However, this has taken somewhat of a toll. I've done a lot of googling over the past several days, finding more fanboy blogs/postings than real professional criticism. In fact, I was going along one blog that was interesting until the person stated that Pakistan had 250 nukes to India's 40. Click on the next google link right away.

I will get back to all your posts and PMs, but let this old horse catch his breath. It was tough answering all your questions.

[Officer of Engineers]

Oh, to look for silos. It's been a long time since I've discussed this and this was back in the fanboy days of CMF. You don't look for missiles. You look for garbage. You look at roads and rail links that goto nowhere and then you start looking for garbage dump and a lagoon. If you find those, look to see if there's a town or anything near by that would justify that garbage dump and that lagoon. If nothing obvious is found, start looking for holes in the ground.

[Tarek Morgen]

What role does a lagoon play?

[Officer of Engineers]

Cheapest sewage system in the world.

[Tarek Morgen]

pumping the sewage from a silo (or any military complex) into a lagoon does not really seem like a good idea to me (of course I don't know much about sewage, and even less about how to handle your silos).

And if one looks for silos in the way you described it, why not simply put the silo near a town that would justify the dumps/lagoons (or put a town next near the silo)

[Officer of Engineers]

pumping the sewage from a silo (or any military complex) into a lagoon does not really seem like a good idea to me (of course I don't know much about sewage, and even less about how to handle your silos).

And if one looks for silos in the way you described it, why not simply put the silo near a town that would justify the dumps/lagoons (or put a town next near the silo)

You don't want civies anywhere around nukes for the chance a sniper could put a couple of holes into your rocket. It's not much for the silos as for the human crew and the force protection battalion. People need to treat their sewage.