WWII what-ifs

[Officer of Engineers]

well, perhaps even worse for the Allies would have been if the UK/France chose to carry out their seriously-considered bombing attacks on the USSR while the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was on-- THAT would have been very interesting, in a very double-plus ungood way.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Pike

That assumes that the British/French would go on the attack against both Germany and the USSR. Don't know about the USSR but a French attack would knock Blitzkreig on its ass. Blitzkreig relies on attacking a known centre of mass. If that mass is moving, you're SOL.

[astralis]

Going through the Turkish mountain ranges? There's a reason why the Russian Empire did not conquer the Ottoman Empire and not because the Ottoman Turks were better archers than Russian musketeers.

Germans wouldn't need to go thru the Caucasus Mountains to reach the Middle East, just advance through the coastal areas and the flat Anatolian central plateau.

if you're talking about advancing into Russia thru the mountains, probably do an opposite of what the Russians did in the Georgian War. BTW a freed up Kriegsmarine would be very useful here, landings in Crimea while advancing through the Caucasus to keep the Russians off balance.

[astralis]

col,

That assumes that the British/French would go on the attack against both Germany and the USSR. Don't know about the USSR but a French attack would knock Blitzkreig on its ass.

sorry, I don't follow. French attack on Germany? Operation Pike was an Anglo-French plan to bomb the USSR. you mean if France goes on the offensive in the West?

[Officer of Engineers]

Germans wouldn't need to go thru the Caucasus Mountains to reach the Middle East, just advance through the coastal areas and the flat Anatolian central plateau.

The entire LOC within range of RN 15+ inch guns. Yeah, good choice.

sorry, I don't follow. French attack on Germany? Operation Pike was an Anglo-French plan to bomb the USSR. you mean if France goes on the offensive in the West?

You're not going to attack the weaker member of the M-R Pact while leaving the stronger one unopposed.

[astralis]

The entire LOC within range of RN 15+ inch guns. Yeah, good choice.

which would leave the RN vulnerable to land-based air.

this is what happens then:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dodecanese_Campaign

You're not going to attack the weaker member of the M-R Pact while leaving the stronger one unopposed.

gotcha. hm, haven't seen any plans for a French offensive, though. that would be...interesting, say a French offensive into Germany in Mar/Apr 1940, spoiling the German attack.

don't think it'll end well, especially if USSR/Germany actually become a real alliance.

[Officer of Engineers]

which would leave the RN vulnerable to land-based air.

this is what happens then:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dodecanese_Campaign

More like Dunkirk. This is not a prepared defence but a meeting engagement between Naval Artillery and supply convoys.

gotcha. hm, haven't seen any plans for a French offensive, though. that would be...interesting, say a French offensive into Germany in Mar/Apr 1940, spoiling the German attack.

don't think it'll end well, especially if USSR/Germany actually become a real alliance.

Win or lose, France would not have fallen. A superpower put Germany on notice and put a stop to Hitler's expansion dreams.

[astralis]

More like Dunkirk. This is not a prepared defence but a meeting engagement between Naval Artillery and supply convoys.

for the sake of argument, in that case how hard would it be to move supply chains 100 miles inland?

A superpower put Germany on notice and put a stop to Hitler's expansion dreams.

but French doctrine simply did not have an adequate response to Blitzkrieg. nothing that would prevent a counterattack. moreover in this scenario now the German -eastern- front is safe, and you might even see the prospect of at least Red Army pilots now also doing combat missions on the western front.

[Officer of Engineers]

for the sake of argument, in that case how hard would it be to move supply chains 100 miles inland?

Without rail and dependent on horse and cart? I'll bet on Turk horsemen.

but French doctrine simply did not have an adequate response to Blitzkrieg. nothing that would prevent a counterattack. moreover in this scenario now the German -eastern- front is safe, and you might even see the prospect of at least Red Army pilots now also doing combat missions on the western front.

Blitzkreig requires extremely good intelligence and a fixed enemy. The MAGINOT LINE did 90% of the work for the Wehrmacht. For the French units that did maneuver, the Luftwaffe could concentrate their limited resources on the very few units and even then, it was by no means shaping the battlefield as we understood the term today.

For initial contact, the Germans would also rely on fortifications and it will be an artillery duel, in which case, the French were the superior force. They preached artillery.

[astralis]

col,

first I have to say this thread is great because it allows me to think through a lot of the decisions that were made in OTL.

Without rail and dependent on horse and cart? I'll bet on Turk horsemen.

how hard would it be for even the German logistics chain to build up rail? hell, even the Union could do it back in 1864. plus there were existing networks even across the Anatolian plateau.

for that matter the Germans/Italians had already captured all the major Greek islands surrounding Turkey save Cyprus. can't be too hard to establish air patrol bases or even a U-boat station to make life that much more fun-- just a relatively small expansion of the concurrent U-boat campaign in the Mediterranean.

The MAGINOT LINE did 90% of the work for the Wehrmacht. For the French units that did maneuver, the Luftwaffe could concentrate their limited resources on the very few units and even then, it was by no means shaping the battlefield as we understood the term today.

For initial contact, the Germans would also rely on fortifications and it will be an artillery duel, in which case, the French were the superior force. They preached artillery.

correct me if I'm wrong, but in this case the French would -still- need to man the Maginot line, right? in fact they'd probably have to thin it out to support an offensive across Belgium going the other way.

what prevents a counterpunch through the Maginot Line/Ardennes forest like what the Germans actually did?

[Mihais]

More like Dunkirk. This is not a prepared defence but a meeting engagement between Naval Artillery and supply convoys.

.

Prince of Wales and Repulse.

[Officer of Engineers]

how hard would it be for even the German logistics chain to build up rail? hell, even the Union could do it back in 1864. plus there were existing networks even across the Anatolian plateau.

The RN can ship the BIA in faster than the Wehrmacht can build tracks.

for that matter the Germans/Italians had already captured all the major Greek islands surrounding Turkey save Cyprus. can't be too hard to establish air patrol bases or even a U-boat station to make life that much more fun-- just a relatively small expansion of the concurrent U-boat campaign in the Mediterranean.

1 - The Luftwaffe sucks at anti-ship operations.

2) - Leaving again the Atlantic wide open.

correct me if I'm wrong, but in this case the French would -still- need to man the Maginot line, right? in fact they'd probably have to thin it out to support an offensive across Belgium going the other way.

Man what? The French would have to strip the line of their guns. A reserve would be kept in place but the majority of the forces would be marching towards Germany.

what prevents a counterpunch through the Maginot Line/Ardennes forest like what the Germans actually did?

Without halting the French offensive first, there would be no counter-punch. What? You're going to allow a superior artillery force to keep pushing deep into Germany and cutting your LOCs?

Prince of Wales and Repulse.

That adds to the point. Despite the RN losses, the Kreigsmarine still wouldn't come out to play.

[astralis]

col,

The RN can ship the BIA in faster than the Wehrmacht can build tracks.

again, a light infantry force vs a mechanized one. and one that would leave India open to Japan.

thinking about it too, what about the other way? what if Hitler carries out his plan to take Gibraltar? it'd cost him an arm and a leg but no more than, say, the battle of France. suddenly RN's position in the Mediterranean becomes very difficult-- they'd have to move ships around the Cape to Suez to play a role.

Germans could then replay Operation Torch from the other way around.

1 - The Luftwaffe sucks at anti-ship operations.

2) - Leaving again the Atlantic wide open.

the U-boats were concurrently fighting the Atlantic and the Mediterranean at the same time. again, thinking this through, if the Schwerpunkt/decisive battle here is the Mediterranean and seizing Suez, what does it matter if the Atlantic is left wide open while supporting a land operation that would likely last for no more than six months?

Man what? The French would have to strip the line of their guns. A reserve would be kept in place but the majority of the forces would be marching towards Germany.

if the Germans are standing on the defensive in the north, wouldn't they be able to use interior lines to strike at the weakened Maginot line in the south? it's a lot shorter offensive needed to get from the Maginot Line to Paris than it would be from Paris through Belgium through northern Germany to Berlin.

seems to me that it would be easier for Germany to cut France's LOCs than the other way around. that's why in WW1 the initial French offensive was in the south. Germany sucker punched France with the Schlieffen Plan but given how the French generals fought in WWII, I really doubt they would be able to pull off the equivalent here.

That adds to the point. Despite the RN losses, the Kreigsmarine still wouldn't come out to play.

think Mihais means how Japanese land-based air made short work of a Royal Navy detachment.

[Mihais]

That adds to the point. Despite the RN losses, the Kreigsmarine still wouldn't come out to play.

No need to.The Italian Navy has German air cover over the entire Eastern Med.Malta was nearly strangled by a single German airfleet flying for a limited period.
RN capital ships were sunk or dissabled by Italian frogmen.

The Axis has enough means to keep the RN at bay or even crush it in Med in this scenario.

WRT Turkey,its neutrality wasn't set in stone.A strong German effort can see Turkey join the Axis.Or at least allow the passage of German troops to the Levant.
As for the BIA,by 1942 it had,IIRC,about 15 divisions.That can't halt the Germans,neither in Lybia nor in Levant.

I'm not ,though,a believer in the feasability of a German offensive in the Med,due the USSR.
As for an attack via Turkey,the Soviets were too great a risk.Assuming a third of the Wehrmacht goes tthrough the Balkans into Turkey and Levant,it leaves several thousands soviet tanks 150 miles from Ploiesti.And then a third of the Germans would be surrounded in the ME.

[astralis]

mihais,

I'm not ,though,a believer in the feasability of a German offensive in the Med,due the USSR.
As for an attack via Turkey,the Soviets were too great a risk.Assuming a third of the Wehrmacht goes tthrough the Balkans into Turkey and Levant,it leaves several thousands soviet tanks 150 miles from Ploiesti.And then a third of the Germans would be surrounded in the ME.

don't think the Russians had the mobility to cross the Caucasus and spring down on the Germans in 1941. given their wretched leadership in the Winter War and in Barbarossa, their initial attacks in Europe would most likely be an utter disaster. Stalin at this time WANTED to see the imperialist capitalists taken down a peg, otherwise he wouldn't have been merrily shipping hitler crucial war material and food stuffs up to the very invasion.

[Bigfella]

Asty,

The problem I see with your Turkish offensive is the L word - logistics. Too much stuff travelling down too few routes that are vulnerable to interdiction. Rail can be hit by the RAF, and anything travelling on the sea will have to deal with the RN. Cyprus is a mighty big aircraft carrier & naval base. After Crete it will be armed to the teeth at the slightest hint of Turkey changing sides or of Germany trying to force its way through (the latter would be a real disaster). The Brits had good enough contacts in Turkey to sniff the wind.

The RN badly mauled the RM when it ventured east, and the Italians weren't going any farther than Rhodes. Anything moving on the Eastern Med or along the littoral at night would be fair game. Remember that the RN raided every port along the channel coast as the Germans prepared for Sealion, even getting into Calais. I don't think they lost anything bigger than a torpedo boat. The Turkish coast would be peppered and anything in port at night would be at risk. The day time would be a different matter, but the airspace would be contested and with a bit of co-ordination the RN would be relatively safe under RAF cover. Even under ideal conditions the Luftwaffe was crap at sinking ships. Moving targets certainly weren't its thing.

Personally I'm not convinced Ataturk could be strong armed by Hitler. Sure, European Turkey would be under threat, but the rest would be safe from everything but bombing. There is no way Germany was going to get an army into and across Anatolia under those circumstances. Ataturk remembered the mistake made by the government in 1914 and the terrible, terrible cost for Turkey. Millions dead, occupation, humiliation & loss of empire. I don't think he would have considered a re-run on the chance that Germany might get him back some territory. He would have called Hitler's bluff.