Greetings, and welcome to the World Affairs Board!
The World Affairs Board is the premier forum for the discussion of the pressing geopolitical issues of our time. Topics include military and defense developments, international terrorism, insurgency & COIN doctrine, international security and policing, weapons proliferation, and military technological development.
Our membership includes many from military, defense, academic, and government backgrounds with expert knowledge on a wide range of topics. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so why not register a World Affairs Board account and join our community today?
a worsened Soviet position in fall 1943 means the Tehran and Yalta Conferences, if they do occur, result in a weakened Soviet hand. might mean the Soviets just get part of Berlin and East Prussia while the Western Allies take all of Germany.
That was Eisenhower. He didn't want the butcher's bill for Germany.
that's true, but that was after both sides had already agreed on the post-war division of Europe. pointless to waste lives on prestige then.
with a different situation, the Soviets wouldn't be in a position to ask for as much.
There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov
With the war going on for 6 more months, what effect would this have had on the atomic research of each nation?
Could Germany get a working bomb in time?
Could? Yes. Would? Probably not.
Hitler loved his "Wunderwaffe", right up until the end of the War, but he was still very suspicious of what he called "that Jewish science" (since, primarily, Jewish scientists were working on it originally). Plus, they never really ever had enough scientists working on it at any given time, anyway. The "high point" for the German nuclear effort was actually in July of 1942; thereafter, the amount of resources devoted to the project diminished steadily throughout the rest of the War, as the various scientists were reassigned to other, more pressing projects (in particular the V2 and the Type XXI U-boot).
Besides, even if they had developed a workable weapon, they probably wouldn't have had a way to deliver it, unless they'd been able to develop a larger version of the V-2 (which they were working on).
"There is never enough time to do or say all the things that we would wish. The thing is to try to do as much as you can in the time that you have. Remember Scrooge, time is short, and suddenly, you're not there any more." -Ghost of Christmas Present, Scrooge
i agree, germany is still doomed. however, the butterflies would matter a lot, though.
for instance, a holocaust cut off in 1943 means a LOT of resources suddenly freed up.
Would the holocaust cut off in any significant way? Germany needed that slave labor. The dedicated death camps might not really get rolling, but the concentration camp system and forced labor is integral to the German war economy.
getting rid of a lot of Hitler vanity projects like the V-1 or V-2, still more.
Getting the Me-262 as a fighter early would certainly impact allied air operations through 1944. The V1 and V2 would probably be cancelled, but more resources would be freed up by not building Tigers and concentrating on fewer armored platforms.
same with operational flexibility.
This is where the Soviets really run into problems. A German army permitted to trade space for time, that makes dedicated local counter attacks and can shift reserves to meet big threats is a nightmare for Stavka. Its not outside the realms of possibility that the Soviets get stalemated through 1943, especially if Zhukov gets his ass handed to him at Kursk in May 43.
USSR would probably take significantly more casualties in this scenario, and my guess is that the end of the war would be delayed by six months, maybe more. that would also affect how europe is divided post-war.
I'd bet on a year or more. If the Me-262 can be pushed into significant front line service by late 43, early 44 Operation Overlord is doomed too stillbirth. The Western allies can't invade without total air dominance in the moths leading up to it to wreck the French road/rail system to limit the panzer divisions. Something they can't achieve without daylight bombing forcing the Luftwaffe to fight. Its costly but doable when the make foe is the Me-109, Fw-190 or BF-110... not doable against jets. NO D-Day landings in June is very bad for the Soviets. Assuming they launch Bagration anyway since Zhukov had an absolute fetish to destroy Armygroup Mitte. Germany likely has a better position in the Ukraine, significant panzer reserves and partisan activity is lower overall plus she can devote 100% of her industrial output to countering it.
Bagration in 1944 in the context of a 1943 stalemate?Unlikely.
Separate peace is more likely.Especially with somebody else but Adolf.Even if it's not peace,a properly defended Dnepr line is not easily overcome.Better kill ratios for the Germans and a better human resources policy simply exhaust the Soviets way before they reach their former border.
Will the US nuke Germany at the cost of not nuking Japan?Will the Germans start to use chemical weapons as response?
Those who know don't speak
He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36
I'd bet on a year or more. If the Me-262 can be pushed into significant front line service by late 43, early 44 Operation Overlord is doomed too stillbirth. The Western allies can't invade without total air dominance in the moths leading up to it to wreck the French road/rail system to limit the panzer divisions. Something they can't achieve without daylight bombing forcing the Luftwaffe to fight. Its costly but doable when the make foe is the Me-109, Fw-190 or BF-110... not doable against jets. NO D-Day landings in June is very bad for the Soviets. Assuming they launch Bagration anyway since Zhukov had an absolute fetish to destroy Armygroup Mitte. Germany likely has a better position in the Ukraine, significant panzer reserves and partisan activity is lower overall plus she can devote 100% of her industrial output to countering it.
Resources for the 262 high temp metals and fuel still will be very scarce. Training pilots requires more fuel and engines used. Engine life in 10's hours even up to the end of the war. Caliber of low time minimal trained pilot. Think Battle of Arracourt 1944 Germans a bunch of shiny new panthers and poorly trained crews. You can increase/ smarter production but poorly trained personal leads to the same outcome
Would the holocaust cut off in any significant way? Germany needed that slave labor. The dedicated death camps might not really get rolling, but the concentration camp system and forced labor is integral to the German war economy.
i'm sure the forced labor camps would continue, especially the ones using Russian POWs. out and out death camps, probably not. if you think about all the resources Germany expended on the camp system, trains, round-ups, things like the warsaw ghetto uprising, that's a lot of resources that would be saved. and Manstein was quite practical.
Getting the Me-262 as a fighter early would certainly impact allied air operations through 1944
i'm less clear on how much not having Hitler would change technological development. yeah, he threw away a ton of resources on things like the V-1 and V-2, and trying to turn the ME-262 into a fighter-bomber, but on the other hand Hitler's obsession with finding a technological miracle also helped Germany push the technological envelope.
and then there was systematic issues with German technology, like their pursuit of the 100% solution vs the 90% solution. i can't see them producing ENOUGH of the ME-262s to decisively change the air war.
but at the last, though, the root that i'm trying to get at is, how much space does Germany get in 1943 assuming that she does everything right?
There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov
Separate peace is more likely.Especially with somebody else but Adolf.Even if it's not peace,a properly defended Dnepr line is not easily overcome.Better kill ratios for the Germans and a better human resources policy simply exhaust the Soviets way before they reach their former border.
can't see this in the 1943 context. no way the Germans are going to kill that many Russians that the USSR would throw in the towel; look at the casualties the Soviets happily ate in taking Berlin. the Soviets and the Western Allies had already agreed on unconditional surrender for Germany by then, no way Stalin was going to exit the war without claiming German territory of some sort, even if it was "only" East Prussia.
There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov
but at the last, though, the root that i'm trying to get at is, how much space does Germany get in 1943 assuming that she does everything right?
If she does everything right, the Soviets never reach Poland. In your reply to Mihais, you pointed out the losses in front of Berlin, but those are losses in front of Berlin. Look at what they did in other areas, settling in for a virtual siege of Konigsberg, peace with the Finns, pressing liberated POWS back in to the war, turning the axis armies on Germany. Manpower was a serious concern. Win at Kharkov, then slice off the Kursk saleint, blunt the Soviet summer offensives in 43 and then preserve armygroup mitte in 44 and not lose too badly in the Ukraine and keep Romania in the war and a separate peace isn't out of the question. Specially if Mainstein puts out feelers early.
In the west, it would not take all that many Me-262's to put paid to daylight bombing. Adolf Galland was convinced a few big efforts would do it. Ending production of the 109 would free up a lot of fuel and pilots. The allies could likely seize the tactical air space where they were, but the strategic raids that did so much t cripple the Luftwaffe and convince it too leave France would be a non-starter.
If the allies have to wait till 45, even more pressure for Stalin to throw in the towel. By the summer of 45 the allies can have the P-80 and Meteor in service in large enough numbers to matter and enough time to win the air war in France on a purely tactical level. German defenses will be stronger and who commands will have much better freedom of movement, but they still can't get within 20 miles of the coast or they get pasted. They get one shot to rush the beaches or its all over. Once an allied beachhead is secure, Germany is in deep trouble. Big mostly infantry armies under enemy dominated skies mean less in Western Europe than they do in Russia where the VVS was never able to maintain air dominance.
How much time is require to switch lines? I can't see them turning 109 lines into 262 under 4 months. And that is if von Manstien makes it his priority to issue that order - along with the 10,000 other orders he just inherited from Hitler dying and having no clue what was his original plans and whether they would work or not.
Actually, whatever time von Manstein would have bought would be more than taken up by cleaning house. Switching production lines would be very low on his mind.
Getting the Me-262 as a fighter early would certainly impact allied air operations through 1944. The V1 and V2 would probably be cancelled, but more resources would be freed up by not building Tigers and concentrating on fewer armored platforms.
Even if Germany could build more Me-262s early, were there enough experienced pilots for them? How would that impact the maintenance crew? Me-262 was not easy to fly, and was a maintenance hog. The engines needed to be replaced after 10 hours or something like that. Did Germany have enough production to keep them running?
Concentrating on building only Panzer IV and Stug IV would definitely help the Heer. What would help even more was more artillery tubes. Not the giant terror weapons like the Gustav or Anzio Annie, but hundreds or even thousands of 10.5 cm or 15 cm guns.
"Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.
[QUOTE=gunnut;1005635]Even if Germany could build more Me-262s early, were there enough experienced pilots for them? How would that impact the maintenance crew? Me-262 was not easy to fly, and was a maintenance hog. The engines needed to be replaced after 10 hours or something like that. Did Germany have enough production to keep them running?[/qupte]
With resources freed up, yes. Its not so much switching lines. Galland simply wanted to end production of the 109. This would free up industrial workers, metals etc for the existing 262 and 190 lines and free up a lot of experienced pilots. In 43 most German pilots are still well trained. Erich Hartman didn't even reach frontline service until October 42.
Concentrating on building only Panzer IV and Stug IV would definitely help the Heer. What would help even more was more artillery tubes. Not the giant terror weapons like the Gustav or Anzio Annie, but hundreds or even thousands of 10.5 cm or 15 cm guns.
The German artillery was definitely sup-par. The sFH18 the main divisional and corps artillery piece was out ranged by American 155mm and Soviet 122mm and 152mm tubes. However the easier move might be to produce more 120mm mortars. Invented by the French, copied by the Soviets and then the Germans it was the best mortar of the war.
On the tank front, I don't think he would cancel the Panther. The Mk IV was at the end of the line as far as development goes.
With resources freed up, yes. Its not so much switching lines. Galland simply wanted to end production of the 109. This would free up industrial workers, metals etc for the existing 262 and 190 lines and free up a lot of experienced pilots. In 43 most German pilots are still well trained. Erich Hartman didn't even reach frontline service until October 42.
Again, would that be a priority? The instruments of government, ie Hitler's hinchmen would be running for their lives, and abandoning their posts, making our Iraq look like a cakewalk by comparison. The Soviets just won a major victory and have operational momentum on their side. You don't know whose spies to trust. Hitler's strategy just died with him and you need to replace it with something ASAP to at least stem the Soviet juggernaut ... and the Western Allies are making your life miserable in Africa and the Atlantic.
Are you going to spend a precious few weeks trying to decide which weapons program to kill? We've had decades to examine all of this. Von Manstien would be ignorant of all the production problems and schedules.
Again, would that be a priority? The instruments of government, ie Hitler's hinchmen would be running for their lives, and abandoning their posts
the SS, maybe, but that would be about it. this is the Germans we're talking about, they salute anyone wearing an uniform and speaking authoritatively. not altogether a joke, right before WWI there was a German cobbler whom bought an old captain's uniform, and proceeded to collect a group of privates. he then walked into the town mayor's office, demanded all the cash in the name of the Kaiser and national security, and got it. so I'm pretty sure Manstein wouldn't have THAT much trouble getting everyone on board, especially if the Wehrmacht was.
Hitler's strategy just died with him and you need to replace it with something ASAP to at least stem the Soviet juggernaut ... and the Western Allies are making your life miserable in Africa and the Atlantic.
not sure Hitler had a strategy by that point, it all seemed very reactive to me. case in point, why did Hitler choose to fight Kursk?
although your bigger point is taken, it would take some time before Manstein would be able to get a handle on all the levers of state.
There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov
Tweet
Comment