What if Nixon Succeeded

[zraver]

Demonstration of what?

exactly, lukewarm tepid demonstration of power with no real incentive behind.

Anyway, the end result is the same. He folded.

Yup, no disagreement there. My argument was that if he had the will, the demonstration of power and resolve would have used more than just a single carrier and been carried out with more alacrity.

Anil, the Indian PM can be forgiven for having an Indo-centric view of the Indian place in the American cosmos. It does not make it right nor accurate but it is understandable. Given the resources Nixon had at his disposal in close proximity to Asia, had he wanted to he could have sent far more than the Big-E. Look at other US responses around the globe- Gulf of Tonkin, Cuba, Yom Kippur... Yom Kippur is in particular, relevant to the discussion because of the time and players. The US response ended up being 3 carriers (over 50 warships total), an airborne division a marine brigade and 50 B-52's.

I just checked and during the Cuban Missile Crisis, 6 carriers including the Big-E were awarded for operations exceeding 30 days. http://www.history.navy.mil/faqs/faq90-3.htm

Those same assets and more were much closer to India in 1971 and yet not called upon. This indicates a lack of will for real confrontation. It was a show the flag and pat little Pakistan on the head as she hid behind the US while tsk tsking India.

[Blademaster]

Not interested in getting into a pissing match with you, specially as I am glad India won. But, had the US decided to fight early, yes even the ground realities. India could not sustain an offensive army in Bangladesh without air cover. Not only that, war with the US means severe food and fuel shortages for India. In 1971-72 India imported between 72 and 111 million bushels of America wheat per year. If Nixon had the political will, India would have lost.

And yet look at Vietnam despite all the bombing and ordnance and technological superiority, Vietnam was lost. So I take your assertions with a grain of salt. And no I am not getting into a pissing contest. I am refusing to get into one.

Gandhi had no choice but to act in Bangladesh. There are 10 million reasons why she couldn't back out and many more reasons why. Nixon knew that and counted the cards in his hands and folded and so did USA.

[zraver]

And yet look at Vietnam despite all the bombing and ordnance and technological superiority, Vietnam was lost. So I take your assertions with a grain of salt. And no I am not getting into a pissing contest. I am refusing to get into one.

Gandhi had no choice but to act in Bangladesh. There are 10 million reasons why she couldn't back out and many more reasons why. Nixon knew that and counted the cards in his hands and folded and so did USA.

Vietnam was an insurgency and not lost until after the US left and Congress cut funding to South Vietnam. However if you want to see what US air power could do to back up a weak non-American army look at the devastating defeat North Vietnam suffered in 1972 during the Easter Offensive. Same players on the US side, nearly identical time frame, same tech on the Us side and nearly the same tech that India/Pakistan would use on the NVA/ARVN side.

Had Nixon cared enough to actually fight, a conventional invasion of East Pakistan by India would have failed.

[anil]

Indira doesn't play poker, she would have engaged.

The US didn't mind india until she pulled in the russians with a strategic treaty in aug 1971. Nixon's "will"(let's call it "confidence") went out the window after that. It wanted the chinese to draw(divide) away the russians like the US did in 1962 with the cuban missile crisis.

[Blademaster]

Vietnam was an insurgency and not lost until after the US left and Congress cut funding to South Vietnam. However if you want to see what US air power could do to back up a weak non-American army look at the devastating defeat North Vietnam suffered in 1972 during the Easter Offensive. Same players on the US side, nearly identical time frame, same tech on the Us side and nearly the same tech that India/Pakistan would use on the NVA/ARVN side.

Had Nixon cared enough to actually fight, a conventional invasion of East Pakistan by India would have failed.

US could not react in time. The war was over before the USA could muster enough force to respond. Hence USA had no influence on ground or aerial scene, only the naval scene.

[anil]

Blade, the cleansing in east pakistan was going on for many months. The US had enough time to bring in more ships. It was the indo-russian treaty which cautioned the americans to exercise retrain. The americans didn't engage because this confrontation would get bigger and out of control.

You have to realize that by then the damage was already done. The pakistani army had already cleansed more than 300k civilians. If india didn't enter into an agreement with the russians in aug 1971, who knows how many more would have been cleansed.

PM IK Gujral described the US-Pakistan-China axis as a strategic axis. Some experts believe they developed this alliance in the late 50s.

[zraver]

US could not react in time. The war was over before the USA could muster enough force to respond. Hence USA had no influence on ground or aerial scene, only the naval scene.

Had Nixon cared there was plenty of tie for the US, the situation did not come out of nowhere. Nixon however had bigger fish to fry.

Anil,

Indira doesn't play poker, she would have engaged.

OK, lets plays a thought excercise. Lets say Nixon presses forward and demonstrates a strong resolve to preserve East Pakistan as the personal shooting range for the West Pakistani Punjabis. He sends not just TF74 but half the carriers (3) and support vessels making up TF77 plus sets aside 50 B-52 bombers in Guam and Thailand. This is a pretty typical US response for the era having been previously seen in Cuba, Vietnam, Six Day war and would be seen again in Yom Kippur.

You really think she would engage agaisnt those odds and certain defeat? To do what? Without air cover she can't invade East Pakistan.

The US didn't mind india until she pulled in the russians with a strategic treaty in aug 1971. Nixon's "will"(let's call it "confidence") went out the window after that. It wanted the chinese to draw(divide) away the russians like the US did in 1962 with the cuban missile crisis

Not supported by the evidence. By 1971 the US and Soviets had already had two major naval confrontations and the US didn't back down in either one. A third and fourth confrontations was just a short time away (under Nixon btw). In 1973 over 100 warships would be facing each other with Nixon as president and he didn't blink. Why do you think this time is outside the established historical norms? Why must it be an Indo-Soviet treaty for Nixon's lack of will and not the self evident distraction caused by his focus on Vietnam? Your argument has holes big enough to sail the Big-E through.

[DarthSiddius]

It is not a lack of capability but a lack of intent from the US. Sending the Enterprise in the BoB was nothing more than a show of faith (let the Indians know the American position) to placate the Pakistanis. Things would have escalated if the Chinese were to intervene, but due to a combination of extreme weather and faltering relations with the soviets they had to sit this one out. Moreover, America in the early 70's (as mentioned umpteen times here before) was a very divided nation, even NATO was troubled (france?) this along with the wrapping up of the very "unpopular" war by now in Vietnam and the Indo-Soviet treaty looming in the background must have influenced American policy. Why get into another fight especially if it has potential to blow horribly out of proportion?

[zraver]

Literally just a couple of months after this Nixon would mine the North Vietnamese harbors knowing full well it put a shit ton of Soviet sailors at risk. Also in the link below you'll see the Soviets effectively abandoned North Vietnam in pursuit of their own desire to reach dente with the US and keep the SALT talks on target.

http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA355037

[anil]

zraver, we actually have nothing to argue about. You're just repeating the same point again and again.

Q: Would east pakistan have become bangladesh had india and russia not entered into an agreement?
A: No, bangladesh wouldn't have come into existence. In the absence of russia, the americans would have had their way.

If it wasn't for the americans, india would have never entered east pakistan in the early stages and stopped the pakistani army before it could cull over 300 thousand banglas. Had india entered into an agreement with the russians in the 60s itself, the bangla genocide would have never happened. The chinese invasion in 1962 would have not happened either.

Nehru was in a wrong era so he misread the nature of the world by advocating for non-alliance. It took a generation and his own progeny to undo a noble idea. Such are the actual order of things.

[Doktor]

I still can't get my head around this. Why would Nixon put so many lives in risk. To just show support?!

[DarthSiddius]

He's not putting lives at risk if he is confident that there won't be a confrontation. As to where that confidence comes from I'm not certain. I'm not a fan of Nixon and co's decision making.

[zraver]

zraver, we actually have nothing to argue about. You're just repeating the same point again and again.

because you keep ignoring me. I've provided examples and evidence you have not.

Q: Would east pakistan have become bangladesh had india and russia not entered into an agreement?
A: No, bangladesh wouldn't have come into existence. In the absence of russia, the americans would have had their way.

Highlights a flaw in your thinking, "Americans had their way". I've shown repeatedly that had the Americans really cared, they would have had their way. They didn't care, they did not have a dog in the fight so to speak. The Indo-Russian relationship simply did not matter.

If it wasn't for the americans, india would have never entered east pakistan in the early stages and stopped the pakistani army before it could cull over 300 thousand banglas.

English problem? That makes zero sense, please try rewording it.

Had india entered into an agreement with the russians in the 60s itself, the bangla genocide would have never happened. The chinese invasion in 1962 would have not happened either.

Nehru was in a wrong era so he misread the nature of the world by advocating for non-alliance. It took a generation and his own progeny to undo a noble idea. Such are the actual order of things.

Uhm.... backing slowly away.....

Dok,

I still can't get my head around this. Why would Nixon put so many lives in risk. To just show support?!

No lives were at risk, he sent TF-74 sailing in at 15 knots with just enough combat power to make sure India didn't feel froggy towards the Us but not enough to commit US policy one way or another. It was a cuppydoll prize for Pakistan, nothing more.

Darth,

He's not putting lives at risk if he is confident that there won't be a confrontation. As to where that confidence comes from I'm not certain. I'm not a fan of Nixon and co's decision making.

I don't know, some of Nixon's FP moves were brilliant others were balsy. Compared to some Presidents his FP acumen is outstanding.

[Doktor]

Z, Darth,

The way I understand it from the other thread, Indira has given orders DG to get hit. And she did that after Big-E bumped into BoB.

[zraver]

Z, Darth,

The way I understand it from the other thread, Indira has given orders DG to get hit. And she did that after Big-E bumped into BoB.

I think more she asked if it could be done via feasibility study. Also the BoB is not a bay it is a sea and covers over 2.1 million KM^2.

1.The Indians at the time relied on the Hawker-Siddley 748 twin engined light transport. It lacked the range to even reach DG with a normal load.

2. DG at the time lacked an airfield, so even lightened the 748's could not land. In fact the only US personnel on the island were seabees who were construction a communications center and airfield that would not be completed until 1973.

3. All of the major parachute units in the Indian Army had other tasks during the war.