What if - Spain joined the Axis in 1939.

[Officer of Engineers]

i understand the chinese had the will after nanjing but the question is if they had the means to kick out the japanese. you could have great chinese generals coming out of the woodwork but if the other guy has tanks and air support and you don't...

And the means are the US and the USSR. Regardless of whether they went open war or not, the history is clear that they opposed Japanese expansion and the cheapest way is to counter that is to arm Chinese armies.

[troung]

And the means are the US and the USSR. Regardless of whether they went open war or not, the history is clear that they opposed Japanese expansion and the cheapest way is to counter that is to arm Chinese armies.

The USSR was in a fight for its survival and Japan forcing the Europeans out of their colonies effectively cuts off China from the US. Even with US support and with US ground troops pushing in on the home islands, it still took the USSR to force out the Japanese from China.

It does not detract from the point that Mao was a better inspirator than Hirehito. We're talking charisma here, who can get more to do more. Mao has it in spades. Hirehito ... well, that picture with MacArthur destroyed the Imperial Japanese Empire forever.

Japanese men charged machine guns with swords and bayonets, crashed planes into ships, acted as human anti tank mines and were happy to rape and pillage, while Mao inspired people to lay low and wait for America to beat the Japanese for them. Japan could build fighters, tanks, heavy howitzers, battleships and trucks; Mao could build none of that.

Maybe something can be said for leaders who don't give speeches :wors: .

Mao was out of reach. Xinjiang was too far and way too exposed to a Soviet thrust.

There was also a armed movement in East Turkestan for breaking away going on at that time. China screamed divide and take.

I think they were doing it, Astralis. By 1941, for the Japanese the conflict was looking to be long term at best, unwinnable at worst. Chinese losses were enormous, but even against divided opposition the Japanese had suffered perhaps 750,000 casualties.

They had suffered rebuffs but as late as 1944 were still able to inflict severe defeats on Chinese units, even with them being focused on fighting the USA. Cut off CKS totally from the west and his tune regarding 1937 borders would eventually change.

You can depart from the real history to a point. Making both the US and the USSR neutral in a war between China and Japan goes straight into the relm of fiction instead of alternative history.

In the real history the US/USSR/UK defeated the Japanese Empire and made them leave China, not Mao. The USSR has to wait to join in until it has defeated the Germans, no way would China still be absorbing body blows without coming to terms in the meantime.

[Officer of Engineers]

The USSR was in a fight for its survival

And yet 45 Soviet divisions were ready to pounce on 15 Japanese divisions for any Japanese stupidity. Come post Operation MARS and URANUS, the Soviets had supplies to spare. It just that their LOCs could not keep up.

and Japan forcing the Europeans out of their colonies effectively cuts off China from the US.

The real history also states that the British Indian Army were killing their Japanese very well and the real history also states that China went alone for a while when Burma was closed and was forcibly re-openned by Stillwell using Chinese armies.

Even with US support and with US ground troops pushing in on the home islands, it still took the USSR to force out the Japanese from China.

The collary to that is that half the Japanese air force and 75% of the IJA was tied down in China with no victory in sight. The Chinese may not have been winning but neither was the Japanese.

Japanese men charged machine guns with swords and bayonets, crashed planes into ships, acted as human anti tank mines and were happy to rape and pillage, while Mao inspired people to lay low and wait for America to beat the Japanese for them. Japan could build fighters, tanks, heavy howitzers, battleships and trucks; Mao could build none of that.

And Peng Dehuai beaten American fighters, tanks, heavy howitzers, trucks, and Douglas MacArthur using two foot armies. The Chinese had all everything they needed to beat the Japanese except the Generals but as the real history has shown, they were emerging.

Maybe something can be said for leaders who don't give speeches :wors: .

Don't let them pose for pictures either. In one photo, Hirehito was reduced from a god to a dwarf.

There was also a armed movement in East Turkestan for breaking away going on at that time. China screamed divide and take.

Not after Nanking. And no one had any illusions about Japanese racism. Ask the Koreans.

They had suffered rebuffs but as late as 1944 were still able to inflict severe defeats on Chinese units, even with them being focused on fighting the USA. Cut off CKS totally from the west and his tune regarding 1937 borders would eventually change.

He was cut off. Didn't chanage a thing.

In the real history the US/USSR/UK defeated the Japanese Empire and made them leave China, not Mao. The USSR has to wait to join in until it has defeated the Germans, no way would China still be absorbing body blows without coming to terms in the meantime.

After Nanking? Not a chance in hell. The very fact that the hatre is still present today is how a people got so bloody p!ssed off that it lasted generations.

[troung]

And yet 45 Soviet divisions were ready to pounce on 15 Japanese divisions for any Japanese stupidity. Come post Operation MARS and URANUS, the Soviets had supplies to spare. It just that their LOCs could not keep up.

They can push the Japanese back but with an intact IJA/IJN and with the 2nd of the 11th in the far east no way can they "August Storm" them.

Don't let them pose for pictures either. In one photo, Hirehito was reduced from a god to a dwarf.

Mao couldn't force him to take that picture. In the meantime the Emperor has men who are cool with eating the flesh of the dead.

The collary to that is that half the Japanese air force and 75% of the IJA was tied down in China with no victory in sight. The Chinese may not have been winning but neither was the Japanese.

They were stuck trying to give enough of a blow to make the KMT come to terms, the Chinese weren't on a path to make them leave much less give them a death blow.

He was cut off. Didn't chanage a thing.

Keep going with no hope of external support and taking hammer blows from the Japanese something would give. No fun being a warlord if you are actually fighting someone bigger and can't profit.

After Nanking? Not a chance in hell. The very fact that the hatre is still present today is how a people got so bloody p!ssed off that it lasted generations.

The Chinese might shake their fists in the air today for show but when it mattered didn't force out the Japanese and without the allies doing the heavy lifting weren't on a course to. Wouldn't have been the first unequal treaty the Chinese swallowed. They might have fought again later but China was in a worse position then Russia of WW1 if it had the keep facing the IJA on its own.

Not after Nanking. And no one had any illusions about Japanese racism. Ask the Koreans.

They still got Mongols, Manchus, and Chinese under the colors even post Nanking, Muslim Turks who disliked ethnic Chinese were a perfect ally.

And Peng Dehuai beaten American fighters, tanks, heavy howitzers, trucks, and Douglas MacArthur using two foot armies. The Chinese had all everything they needed to beat the Japanese except the Generals but as the real history has shown, they were emerging.

It took the USSR to push the Japanese out with T-34s, heavy artillery, and bombers; outnumbering them in heavy weapons. The PLA pushed the UN back in Korea but failed to kill an American division.

[Officer of Engineers]

They can push the Japanese back but with an intact IJA/IJN and with the 2nd of the 11th in the far east no way can they "August Storm" them.

The point is that the Soviets had supplies enough to give to the Chinese without sacraficing their defence of the East.

Keep going with no hope of external support and taking hammer blows from the Japanese something would give. No fun being a warlord if you are actually fighting someone bigger and can't profit.

Except that he wasn't taking hammer blows. His best armies were kept in reserves for the communists, never had the chance to come out and play except for Shanghai which costs both sides dearly. Both he and Mao were getting ready for the upcoming civil war after the anticipated Japanese defeat. Just as you postulated that the Japanese had strengths to spare, do did both Mao and Chiang.

The Chinese might shake their fists in the air today for show but when it mattered didn't force out the Japanese and without the allies doing the heavy lifting weren't on a course to. Wouldn't have been the first unequal treaty the Chinese swallowed. They might have fought again later but China was in a worse position then Russia of WW1 if it had the keep facing the IJA on its own.

You still are not seeing this. Both the US and the USSR could have kept the Chinese armies in the field far longer than the IJA could. Even Ichi-Go was a strategic disaster for the IJA having spent their entire warstocks in China.

This remains the key point here. Both the US and the USSR opposed Japanese expansion. The Chinese was their proxy.

They still got Mongols, Manchus, and Chinese under the colors even post Nanking, Muslim Turks who disliked ethnic Chinese were a perfect ally.

Not the Manchus. They and the Koreans had a taste of Japanese rule already. To get to the Muslim Turks, the IJA had to passed through Mao and again, that is extending a Japanese neck for a Russian saber to chop.

It took the USSR to push the Japanese out with T-34s, heavy artillery, and bombers; outnumbering them in heavy weapons.

It took the Soviet operational art to fight a Deep Battle that the Japanese had absolutely no clue about. It was not a stand up fight between the two. It was a sucker punch knock out blow.

The PLA pushed the UN back in Korea but failed to kill an American division.

So, in other words, more than a match against the IJA.

[troung]

The point is that the Soviets had supplies enough to give to the Chinese without sacraficing their defence of the East.

With no possibility of a second front?

So, in other words, more than a match against the IJA.

Without the firepower of the IJA. Korea was done by a PLA in control of China, with a reasonable source of supplies and safe bases, compared to operating under Japanese skies facing people ready to do biological warfare on their villages and burn fields. The British thought MA was crazy for wanting to use the bomb, while the IJA ate livers.

Both he and Mao were getting ready for the upcoming civil war after the anticipated Japanese defeat. Just as you postulated that the Japanese had strengths to spare, do did both Mao and Chiang.

The fact that both factions were fine avoiding a fight as much as possible doesn't reflect well on their willingness to break themselves against the Japanese. Japanese pilots crashed themselves into battleships, the Chinese were cool hanging out waiting for someone else make the Japanese leave.

Not the Manchus. They and the Koreans had a taste of Japanese rule already. To get to the Muslim Turks, the IJA had to passed through Mao and again, that is extending a Japanese neck for a Russian saber to chop.

But even post Nanking the IJA found Chinese and others ready to at least half ass it. What an East Turkestan offers is the possibility to heating up the rear area of China, even through arms drops and intelligence officers in the short term and a longer term threat to the rear.

This remains the key point here. Both the US and the USSR opposed Japanese expansion. The Chinese was their proxy.

A proxy which was more interested in someone else doing the work for them, and a proxy neither nation really broke the bank supporting.

It took the Soviet operational art to fight a Deep Battle that the Japanese had absolutely no clue about. It was not a stand up fight between the two. It was a sucker punch knock out blow.

I was using that as an example of what it took. Battle hardened men and officers (and logistics people) with cutting edge equipment and superiority in artillery, armor and mobility.

[Officer of Engineers]

With no possibility of a second front?

Not sure what you mean here. Would the Soviets attack? Only if the West was stalemated or Stalin needed Asian armies and resources to fight against Hitler.

Without the firepower of the IJA. Korea was done by a PLA in control of China, with a reasonable source of supplies and safe bases,

Like the 100 Regiments Offensive?

compared to operating under Japanese skies facing people ready to do biological warfare on their villages and burn fields.

Biowafare was done via the ground and the Japanese tac air can hardly be called decisive and certainly not on par with what the PLA experienced in Korea.

The fact that both factions were fine avoiding a fight as much as possible doesn't reflect well on their willingness to break themselves against the Japanese. Japanese pilots crashed themselves into battleships, the Chinese were cool hanging out waiting for someone else make the Japanese leave.

Or both sides had the correct strategic read (and they did). Japan was going to lose the war (and they did). So, waste yourself fighting a defeated enemey?

But even post Nanking the IJA found Chinese and others ready to at least half ass it. What an East Turkestan offers is the possibility to heating up the rear area of China, even through arms drops and intelligence officers in the short term and a longer term threat to the rear.

The IJA absolutely sucks at arming others. Even the Indian NIA was armed with captured British stock instead of Japanese stock leaving their munitions picture absolutely dismal. To suggest that they could somehow armed an entire army to Mao's rear is beyond the historic picture.

A proxy which was more interested in someone else doing the work for them, and a proxy neither nation really broke the bank supporting.

Perhaps but it does state that Japan never faced a fully determined China and given the numbers, it was a China that Japan could not win.

I was using that as an example of what it took. Battle hardened men and officers (and logistics people) with cutting edge equipment and superiority in artillery, armor and mobility.

You're also talking about an army who made effective use of penal battalions. Soviet operational art can make effective use (and once the Chinese learned it, did make effective use) of Chinese troops. Which again brings back to the point of good Chinese generals.

[troung]

Not sure what you mean here. Would the Soviets attack? Only if the West was stalemated or Stalin needed Asian armies and resources to fight against Hitler.

Could they supply China the needed equipment if the US isn't in the war?

Perhaps but it does state that Japan never faced a fully determined China and given the numbers, it was a China that Japan could not win.

Arguably they faced the most determined China they were going to, millions of men waiting for someone else to win for them. Even with American aid the IJA was typically better in firepower compared to the KMT. Japan could develop capable weapons of all types, China couldn't build stuff more complex then machine guns.

The IJA absolutely sucks at arming others. Even the Indian NIA was armed with captured British stock instead of Japanese stock leaving their munitions picture absolutely dismal. To suggest that they could somehow armed an entire army to Mao's rear is beyond the historic picture.

I didn't say arming up a crack army but a light force with popular support in that region. Giving Uighurs captured Mauser rifles and ZB-26s and explosives and they could set that area further on fire.

Like the 100 Regiments Offensive?

Which Mao was against and the PLA was totally unable to protect base areas and peasants from the Japanese romping around.

Biowafare was done via the ground and the Japanese tac air can hardly be called decisive and certainly not on par with what the PLA experienced in Korea.

Might not be as flexible as the USAF but unlike the USAF they would be unfettered in what they could strike and were operating in bigger numbers then the KMT had.

Or both sides had the correct strategic read (and they did). Japan was going to lose the war (and they did). So, waste yourself fighting a defeated enemey?

But it is hard to use their lack of action to support the conclusion that on their own they would fight until final victory. Chinese nationalists might be pissed off still, but when it mattered their fathers and grandfathers were cool with hoping someone else would do the dirty work.

[Officer of Engineers]

Could they supply China the needed equipment if the US isn't in the war?

Rifles, artillery, and ammo? The Soviets made these to throw away. Remember these were foot armies.

Arguably they faced the most determined China they were going to, millions of men waiting for someone else to win for them.

And millions also died fighting the Japanese. Like everything else of that period, you have men determined to fight and you've got leaders who thought otherwise. Hell, even Chiang was forced at gunpoint to fight the Japanese.

But the suggestion here is that the Japanese thought better than to start a war against the US and the US either not willing to start one herself or ended the war early before bringing Japan to her knees.

Then, this would be the picture being presented to Mao and Chiang. How that would change the strategic outlook is anyone guess but suffice, there would have been an increase in anti-Japanese operations. And what I wanted to show here is that it was not an all one sided show. The Japanese were not supermen vis-a-vi the Chinese.

Even with American aid the IJA was typically better in firepower compared to the KMT.

And yet, Japan could not force the battle of annhilation, could not force Chiang to accept battle. Even Ichi-go saw the limit of their operational success. They achieved their operational objectives at the cost of her entire warstock in China and yet, Chiang was still in the field.

I didn't say arming up a crack army but a light force with popular support in that region. Giving Uighurs captured Mauser rifles and ZB-26s and explosives and they could set that area further on fire.

And what would that achieve? Mao's rear was secured. His armies were waiting for the fight. It's not like he didn't have the forces to spare to put down a revolt and just what kind of revolt can the Japanese support? 100 rilfes? 1000 rifles? Maybe an artillery piece or two? Mao had 1 million men under his command.

Which Mao was against and the PLA was totally unable to protect base areas and peasants from the Japanese romping around.

But the point was that the Chinese was capable of mounting offensive operations. That they bit off more than they can chew is another matter but the Chinese can hit and hit hard.

Might not be as flexible as the USAF but unlike the USAF they would be unfettered in what they could strike and were operating in bigger numbers then the KMT had.

Numbers bigger than what the USAF threw at the PLA in Korea? I think you're overestimating the Japanese in both planes and tonnage.

But it is hard to use their lack of action to support the conclusion that on their own they would fight until final victory.

Hold on one second here, I am currently arguing that the Chinese COULD fight until final victory. I will leave the WOULD to a later date. Discussing Chiang and Mao political wangerings always give me a headache.

[zraver]

And yet 45 Soviet divisions were ready to pounce on 15 Japanese divisions for any Japanese stupidity. Come post Operation MARS and URANUS, the Soviets had supplies to spare. It just that their LOCs could not keep up.

No sir they did not, the loss of the Donbass basin meant Soviet ammuntion and explosives stocks had to be made to order out of LL supplies. The supplies in the East likely got raided to provide for operations in the West just like the divisions did. Through 43 the balance of the power in the East actually favors the Japanese vis a vis the Soviets. Not enough to invade the Soviet Union but defensively Japan would beat any Soviet invasion. Japan owned the air and the newer versions of her tanks were now there in numbers. Not good designs, but much more equal to the BT series which made up the bulk of Soviet tanks in the east. Japanese infantry was much better and not offset by a massive Soviet artillery advatage like they used vs Germany.

The real history also states that the British Indian Army were killing their Japanese very well and the real history also states that China went alone for a while when Burma was closed and was forcibly re-openned by Stillwell using Chinese armies.

The road was not re-opened until 1945.... The lst major japanese offensive in the region was the spring of 1944 and the allied offensive didn;t get much farther than the Japanese invasion did. It was not until late 44 heading into winter that real allied gains were made.

The collary to that is that half the Japanese air force and 75% of the IJA was tied down in China with no victory in sight. The Chinese may not have been winning but neither was the Japanese.

Not winning is not the same as losing. IJA efforts in China still beat KMT and CCP troops when ever they met in battle.

And Peng Dehuai beaten American fighters, tanks, heavy howitzers, trucks, and Douglas MacArthur using two foot armies. The Chinese had all everything they needed to beat the Japanese except the Generals but as the real history has shown, they were emerging.

He took 2x the causalties and based on the list of captured rifles vs claimed POW's failed to destroy a single UN/US division sized unit. Yet the history of the 180th division of the PVA shows that while he couldn't kill an American division, he could kill a chiense one.

Not after Nanking. And no one had any illusions about Japanese racism. Ask the Koreans.

Hrmm, yet Thailand, the Indian national Army, Manchuko forces, mongolians.... all fought for the Japanese after that.

He was cut off. Didn't chanage a thing.

Not totally, US transport aircraft delivered 650,000 tons of supplies from May 1942 to August 1945.

After Nanking? Not a chance in hell. The very fact that the hatre is still present today is how a people got so bloody p!ssed off that it lasted generations.

Nanking pales compared to what Germany did, yet the world doesn't hate Germany. Part of the post war hate is propaganda not memory.

[troung]

Rifles, artillery, and ammo? The Soviets made these to throw away. Remember these were foot armies.

They also had to equip their own forces, and there are huge logistical issues in keeping guns supplied. The USSR had huge needs regarding artillery and ammo.

The Japanese were not supermen vis-a-vi the Chinese.

I don't consider them supermen but God fights on the side with more firepower.

Hold on one second here, I am currently arguing that the Chinese COULD fight until final victory. I will leave the WOULD to a later date. Discussing Chiang and Mao political wangerings always give me a headache.

Those headaches, plus the business classes, warlords, and a war weary public would all weigh heavily on their ability to keep going.

But the point was that the Chinese was capable of mounting offensive operations. That they bit off more than they can chew is another matter but the Chinese can hit and hit hard.

Yeah they could launch an offensive but the IJA showed they could hit back far harder. Shows they could bash their head into a wall.

And what I wanted to show here is that it was not an all one sided show.

I know that and I know the KMT did have victories, but what I'm saying is that without the USA/USSR doing the heavy lifting the IJA wasn't going to be leaving China

Even Ichi-go saw the limit of their operational success. They achieved their operational objectives at the cost of her entire warstock in China and yet, Chiang was still in the field.

With a submarine campaign, B-29 bombings, the USN CBGs romping through the oceans and the USMC/Army taking island after island.

And what would that achieve? Mao's rear was secured. His armies were waiting for the fight. It's not like he didn't have the forces to spare to put down a revolt and just what kind of revolt can the Japanese support? 100 rilfes? 1000 rifles? Maybe an artillery piece or two? Mao had 1 million men under his command.

Mao didn't control the Uighurs then, during the 1930 and 1940s there was fighting between the Uighurs and the KMT already. Gives Japan a chance to make a splash.

[Officer of Engineers]

No sir they did not, the loss of the Donbass basin meant Soviet ammuntion and explosives stocks had to be made to order out of LL supplies. The supplies in the East likely got raided to provide for operations in the West just like the divisions did. Through 43 the balance of the power in the East actually favors the Japanese vis a vis the Soviets. Not enough to invade the Soviet Union but defensively Japan would beat any Soviet invasion. Japan owned the air and the newer versions of her tanks were now there in numbers. Not good designs, but much more equal to the BT series which made up the bulk of Soviet tanks in the east. Japanese infantry was much better and not offset by a massive Soviet artillery advatage like they used vs Germany.

I was anticipating this arguement. And you are misunderstanding me. The real history was that the Americans provided enough materials not to collapse the Chinese. The question was if the Americans were not present, could the Soviets provide enough not to collapse the Chinese. The answer is "yes," provided that the Chinese don't do anything stupid.

The road was not re-opened until 1945.... The lst major japanese offensive in the region was the spring of 1944 and the allied offensive didn;t get much farther than the Japanese invasion did. It was not until late 44 heading into winter that real allied gains were made.

Jason, you are playing into my point. The Japanese had a chance to kill the KMT before the Burma Road openned. After that, they were destined to lose.

Not winning is not the same as losing.

Within context, yes it was. The IJA was in China from 37 on until the end of WWII and at no time did they forced a Chinese surrender. Japan lost. Period. And China played no small part in that.

IJA efforts in China still beat KMT and CCP troops when ever they met in battle.

False, I can name 3 Chinese victories but I take your point. In open battle, the IJA won more than they lost. But take my point, the IJA was destined to lose and lose big.

He took 2x the causalties and based on the list of captured rifles vs claimed POW's failed to destroy a single UN/US division sized unit. Yet the history of the 180th division of the PVA shows that while he couldn't kill an American division, he could kill a chiense one.

Back off. The history also showed he destroyed several South Korean divisions. He was an able General, far above anything Japan ever produced. All in all, the history showed that China was destined to win that war against Japan.

[Officer of Engineers]

Troung, Jason,

Stop right now. I want both of you to examine the histories of CCP's most two famous Generals - Peng Dehuai and Lin Biao. Troung, I know you know these men but at this point, I strongly doubt you know their abilities - the IJA against these Generals? You've got to be kidding me. Yamamotto is not even on par with these men (vis-a-vi logistics).

Until we agree who is and who is not, then we can advance these arguements.

[zraver]

Exact numbers are hard to pin down but in August 45 the IJA had 1150 tanks and AFV's and 5600 artillery pieces in Manchuria in 1945. We know a number had been diverted for operations like Ichi-go and/or sent to Island garrisons like Saipan. That is a tank density for those 32 divisions rivaling 1944+ Soviet operations. Until Stalin transfers forces including T-34's from the West any Soviet plans are a no-go. Soviet force sin the east in WWII stopped getting new material, Even with the transfer from the West in 45 a number of Soviet units invaded using BT series tanks. Exceptionally fast but very vulnerable to Japanese 37, 47 and 57mm cannon.

[Officer of Engineers]

Exact numbers are hard to pin down but in August 45 the IJA had 1150 tanks and AFV's and 5600 artillery pieces in Manchuria in 1945. We know a number had been diverted for operations like Ichi-go and/or sent to Island garrisons like Saipan. That is a tank density for those 32 divisions rivaling 1944+ Soviet operations. Until Stalin transfers forces including T-34's from the West any Soviet plans are a no-go. Soviet force sin the east in WWII stopped getting new material, Even with the transfer from the West in 45 a number of Soviet units invaded using BT series tanks. Exceptionally fast but very vulnerable to Japanese 37, 47 and 57mm cannon.

Jason, ease off. These are Chinese divisions we're speaking off. They would have no T-34s in their inventory ... but that does not mean that they cannot defeat Japanese Armour. They defeated British and American armour in the Korean War using infantry.