This question was even asked? Geez, I'm a Southerner, but hands down Lincoln. Lincoln was dealt a far better hand than Davis was and had greater advantages from the outset, but even with his bad hand Davis didn't play it well.
Put me, a person with no formal training, in charge of the American military and put Norman Schwartzkopf in charge of the Iraqis circa 1990, and I'm pretty certain I can win against him. Even for all its inherent advantages at the beginning of the war, it still took the Union four years to get a decisive victory against a numerically and economically inferior opponent. Not to mention you're overestimating the worth of politicians over generals in this conflict. Lincoln can free slaves in territories he has no power over all he wants, doesn't mean jacksh*t if the Union armies lose at Gettysburg or any other battles.
This brings us back to the heart of the question, which is how did a backcountry woods boy defeat a Mexican War hero who had also been the Secretary of War?
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