Page 58 of 58 FirstFirst ... 49505152535455565758
Results 856 to 860 of 860

Thread: The US 2020 Presidential Election

  1. #856
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    09 Oct 10
    Posts
    1,131
    I see Nate Silver has Biden where Hilary was on probability projections 72-28. That said their model has Trumps chances that high because of the time to election which gives a higher probability that Trump can alter the calculus. If the election was tomorrow his chances would be far lower.

  2. #857
    Senior Contributor GVChamp's Avatar
    Join Date
    26 Aug 06
    Location
    Chicago
    Posts
    1,730
    Yeah, it's important to NOT confuse Biden's chances with Hillary's chances. Hillary had a small polling lead on election day, really within a typical polling error, and an error in one state implies errors in other states: IE, if Hillary loses Pennsylvania, she is also likely to lose Wisconsin and Michigan. That's why she had a 1 in 3 chance of losing.

    Biden has a 1 in 3 chance of losing because a lot can happen in 3 months. Dubya and Dukkakis were both winning by double-digits and totally blew it before Election Day. As Election Day comes closer, there is less time for Trump to gain ground. If the Election were held tomorrow, 9/10 chance Trump would lose. National polls have Biden up by 7-10.

    Most betting odds, at least according to the RCP website, have Biden's lower, between 55-60%.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

  3. #858
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    09 Oct 10
    Posts
    1,131
    Quote Originally Posted by GVChamp View Post
    Yeah, it's important to NOT confuse Biden's chances with Hillary's chances. Hillary had a small polling lead on election day, really within a typical polling error, and an error in one state implies errors in other states: IE, if Hillary loses Pennsylvania, she is also likely to lose Wisconsin and Michigan. That's why she had a 1 in 3 chance of losing.

    Biden has a 1 in 3 chance of losing because a lot can happen in 3 months. Dubya and Dukkakis were both winning by double-digits and totally blew it before Election Day. As Election Day comes closer, there is less time for Trump to gain ground. If the Election were held tomorrow, 9/10 chance Trump would lose. National polls have Biden up by 7-10.

    Most betting odds, at least according to the RCP website, have Biden's lower, between 55-60%.
    Cant help but think that the chances of altering the polls is lower in trumps case compared to previous elections on account of political polarization and the dynamics of infectious diseases but the point is noted. Lets see what happens.

    I personally think biden is a terrible candidate but the pandemic is helping mask that (no pun intended) and Trump is.... well...doing his best to lose the election.

  4. #859
    Administrator
    Lei Feng Protege
    Defense Professional
    Join Date
    23 Aug 05
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Posts
    14,316
    Ultimately I think this is just about fundraising and having someone being an Attack Dog for the campaign
    isn't that precisely what a VP is for?
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  5. #860
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
    Join Date
    08 Mar 11
    Location
    Orlando, Florida, USA
    Posts
    3,418
    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    Trump admits he's refusing to fund the US Postal Service to sabotage mail-in voting


    Grace Panetta, Business Insider (https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...-voting-2020-8)

    President Donald Trump told Fox Business on Thursday morning that he would block additional funding and election assistance for the US Postal Service to sabotage mail-in voting.

    On Wednesday and Thursday, Trump said he would not sign off on any relief bill that includes emergency federal funds for the USPS and more money to process election-related mail.

    "They want $25 billion billion for the post office. Now they need that money in order to have the post office work so it can take all of these millions and millions of ballots," Trump said on Thursday, adding, "But if they don't get those two items, that means you can't have universal mail-in voting."

    =UPDATE=


    "Whoever, being a person employed in any administrative position by the United States, or by any department or agency thereof, or by the District of Columbia or any agency or instrumentality thereof, or by any State, Territory, or Possession of the United States, or any political subdivision, municipality, or agency thereof, or agency of such political subdivision or municipality (including any corporation owned or controlled by any State, Territory, or Possession of the United States or by any such political subdivision, municipality, or agency), in connection with any activity which is financed in whole or in part by loans or grants made by the United States, or any department or agency thereof, uses his official authority for the purpose of interfering with, or affecting, the nomination or the election of any candidate for the office of President, Vice President, Presidential elector, Member of the Senate, Member of the House of Representatives, Delegate from the District of Columbia, or Resident Commissioner, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than one year, or both." Title 18 U.S. Code 595.
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 3 users browsing this thread. (1 members and 2 guests)

  1. WABs_OOE

Similar Threads

  1. French Presidential Election
    By kato in forum International Politics
    Replies: 136
    Last Post: 02 Jul 17,, 00:17
  2. 2012 Presidential Election - The Ups and Downs
    By TopHatter in forum American Politics & Economy
    Replies: 1237
    Last Post: 24 Nov 13,, 04:28
  3. dead colts of presidential election
    By luffaman in forum American Politics & Economy
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 28 Jun 08,, 02:17
  4. 2000 US Presidential Election
    By Shek in forum American Politics & Economy
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 19 May 08,, 04:05
  5. Mexico's Presidential Election's over...
    By ProzacNation in forum International Politics
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 04 Jul 06,, 11:43

Share this thread with friends:

Share this thread with friends:

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •