Will SARS make a come back?

[kato]

We're now treating people from Grand Est across the border here in Germany. Grand Est has 5,479 identified cases - on a population of only 5.5 million. As of yesterday they had 3,068 corona cases in hospitals and 651 in ICU. The number of hospitalized suggests the actual number of infected in the region should be around 15,000.

Capacity is stated at maximum 900 in ICU, half the per-capita rate of Germany. Since that capacity includes general cases though and the number of cases is rapidly rising, they're currently scrambling to move patients to places outside the region that still have capacity. This includes using medevac Airbus aircraft of the French Air Force and - for higher capacity than that - a modified TGV high-speed train. Patients are now being transferred to neighboring German states as well as to Luxembourg.

Officially there have been 279 deaths of people tested positive ante-mortem in Grand Est, as well as 247 deaths of people with coronavirus symptoms who were not tested. Deaths have included medical personnel.

P.S. on that: Just read that in Grand Est they've begun triaging patients for ventilators as witnessed by observers of the German Institute for Catastrophe Medicine - if you're over 80 they just pump you full with opiates instead to ease your death. If hospital staff is infected they'll continue working, just only in the sections for corona virus patients. And that's in the university clinic of Strasbourg 80 miles from me, not in some small backwater hospital.

In the particularly hard-hit area around Mulhouse the French Army has erected field hospitals. Mulhouse is considered the epicenter of the outbreak in Grand Est with a religious meetup of 2,000 members of an evangelical church in late February as the incubator.

[Double Edge]

Good move by the Bangalore cops to allow online services. So my amazon deliveries should arrive.

https://twitter.com/IPSHemant/status...08714145603585

Now if the ciggy services are also allowed i'm good

https://twitter.com/ciggywala/status...93076630511616

[Double Edge]

If hospital staff is infected they'll continue working, just only in the sections for corona virus patients. And that's in the university clinic of Strasbourg 80 miles from me, not in some small backwater hospital.

Good idea, imagine this is SOP every where now.

In the particularly hard-hit area around Mulhouse the French Army has erected field hospitals. Mulhouse is considered the epicenter of the outbreak in Grand Est with a religious meetup of 2,000 members of an evangelical church in late February as the incubator.

Alsace region

[kato]

Southern Alsace - in fact it's farther from Strasbourg to Mulhouse than from Strasbourg to here. It's located only 30 km from Basel in Switzerland.
Grand Est is basically the entire French northeast border region to Germany, from the Rhine to the Ardennes.

[Oracle]

Good move by the Bangalore cops to allow online services. So my amazon deliveries should arrive.

https://twitter.com/IPSHemant/status...08714145603585

Now if the ciggy services are also allowed i'm good

https://twitter.com/ciggywala/status...93076630511616

Hehehehehehe, I have 34 packs of smokes in stock, excluding today's usage. Booze will last only today.

[Oracle]

20 dead, 727 infected till now in India

This will peak after a week of this 21 day lockdown.

[Double Edge]

20 dead, 727 infected till now in India

Most deaths have taken place in the elderly and those with co-morbidities. In J&K, a 65-year-old trader and preacher from Sopore became the Valley’s first Covid-19 casualty. Another death was reported from Rajasthan, where a 73-year-old resident of virushit Bhilwara succumbed to Covid-19 on Thursday. “The patient was suffering from diabetes, chronic kidney disease and stroke,” state health minister Raghu Sharma said.

Madhya Pradesh also reported its second death. A 35-year-old man, with no history of foreign travel who was hospitalised with fever, cough and breathing difficulty and later tested positive for Covid-19, died during treatment in Indore. Earlier, a 65-year-old woman from the state, who had tested positive for Covid-19, had succumbed to the illness. Gujarat recorded the death of a 70-year-old man and five new positive cases on Thursday, taking the total number of positives to 44. Covid-19 has claimed three lives in the state.

The latest victim, a resident of Bhavnagar, had recently travelled to Delhi. He was also suffering from cancer, diabetes and heart disease, local authorities said. There have been no Covid-19 deaths in Kerala so far, although the state reported the highest number of new cases, 19, on Thursday. Maharashtra, the other Covid-19 hotspot, reported eight new cases. Kerala has had 137 Covid-19 patients so far, the highest in the country, followed by Maharashtra (130), Karanataka (55), Telangana (45) and Gujarat (44). Total four new cases of Covid-19 were confirmed from Delhi on Thursday, taking the total count to 39.

These appear to be stage 2 deaths via local transmission. The picture will become more clear with further testing.

This will peak after a week of this 21 day lockdown.

I don't know when a peak will come with a graph like this. But Nirmala has doubled rations & benefits for those that need it for the next three months. That tells me the peak is still some time away.



Our doubling time appears to be shortening

[Oracle]

Pak Army forcibly moving Covid patients to PoK, Gilgit

Amid strong protests by locals, the Pakistan Army has started to move COVID-19 positive patients from Punjab province to Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Gilgit Baltistan -- the two most marginalised areas under Pakistani occupation.

Sources in PoK reveal that special quarantine centres have been set-up in Mirpur and other major cities in the occupied regions to cleanse the Punjab province of COVID-19 patients as Army top brass has ordered that no positive patient should be anywhere near where Army facilities and Army family housing is there.

Consequently, large numbers of patients are being moved in locked transport carriers to Mirpur city and other parts of PoK and Gilgit Baltistan.

The local residents have carried out protests against setting up of quarantine centres for COVID-19 patients from Pakistan as the region already lacks infrastructure and trained medical staff.

They fear the pandemic will grip the entire region and lives of indigenous Kashmiri people are in danger.

However, the Pakistan Army top brass is not concerned about this as the PoK and Gilgit Baltistan have no political significance in Pakistan especially when compared to the Punjab province.

Residents in Muzaffarabad are terrified that their region is going to be hit by the pandemic and more so because the area simply has no health care facilities to deal with even minor ailments.

They say that the Pakistan Army only thinks about Punjab and nothing else.

Jaffar Ismail, a trader in Muzaffarabad's busy downtown area said: "We have been seeing the movement of coronavirus patients from all over Punjab to hospitals in Muzaffarabad and we are very scared at this latest betrayal of the Kashmiri people by the Pakistan army."

He added: "The Pakistan Army only thinks about Punjab and they want to keep Punjab free of this Coronavirus. They are treating Kashmir and Gilgit as the dustbin of Pakistan."

Dr Amjad Ayub Mirza, a political activist from PoK said, "On one side we are giving emphasis on social distancing and other side Pakistan government is forcing people to gather and demonstrate against the setting up of quarantine centres."

"There is a lack of governance in Pakistan that's why they have handed over the entire country to the Army. The Army is making all arrangements to suit its interests," said the activist.

The total number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Pakistan surged to 1,000. More than 400 COVID-19 cases were reported from Sindh, the worst-hit region in the country.

The Punjab province recorded nearly 300 Coronavirus cases, whereas the northeastern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa confirmed 78 COVID-19 cases.

[Oracle]

Hydroxychloroquine becomes a Schedule H1 drug as hoarding leads to shortage

I asked for it in the pharmacy near my home, they didn't have any. Now it can't be bought over the counter.

Covid-19: Cabinet secretary says 'gap' in actual monitoring, asks states to strengthen surveillance urgently

It seems, we're screwed in the coming days.

[Double Edge]

Covid-19: Cabinet secretary says 'gap' in actual monitoring, asks states to strengthen surveillance urgently

It seems, we're screwed in the coming days.

I don't understand what "gap" he is referring to

"However, there appears to be a gap between the number of international passengers who need to be monitored by the States/UTs and the actual number of passengers being monitored," Gauba said in his letter.

The government had started monitoring of all international passengers who have arrived in India in last two months in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak.
Gauba said,"it is important that all international passengers are put under close surveillance to prevent the spread of the epidemic."

If we are monitoring all internatinoal passengers since Jan 18. Why is there a gap between what the states do and what has been listed.

Unless its a resourcing problem where in states are unable to keep track of all of them.

[kato]

Bavaria today published an official table of default fines for Corona Virus violations.

For individuals starts at 150 Euro for "leaving your residence without due cause", goes up to 500 Euro for e.g. entering a care home. For businesses it runs up to 5000 Euro for illegally opening e.g. a non-takeaway restaurant or non-essential retail shop.

Negligent violations go for half that rate, for each repeat violation the fine is doubled. Assembling in groups or participating in events is not subject to fines, but instead punishable with up to two years prison (one year if negligent).

[Double Edge]

A decent summary but articles date quickly in a fast moving crisis. This one's from three days ago.

India’s coronavirus lockdown and its looming crisis, explained | Vox | Mar 24 2020

One of them linked to brings up the mitigation vs suppression debate

Interview: ‘Suppression won’t work in India. Slow down the coronavirus. This will be a long haul’ | Scroll | Mar 23 2020

Internationally, there seems to be a debate about two possible approaches going forward: mitigation vs suppression. While the former involves isolating suspected cases, quarantining households with suspected cases and socially distancing those most vulnerable, at the heart of the latter is a drastic lockdown. Which of these two strategies would you recommend for India

About 80,000 women will deliver today all over India. They will be looking for a place to go and deliver. Do you know how they travel in the villages? Think of them when there is no auto rickshaw, no bus service. Do we think of them when we give orders?

When people say suppress, suppress, there are people dying in India for all kinds of reasons. Fine you suppress it [the spread of the novel coronavirus] again, but anyway it will come back again.

Suppression is not going to work in India in my opinion. In an organised society, where food can be delivered into each house, it is possible, not in India.

In India, suppression would mean hurting each other, exploitation, giving power to wrong kinds of people. That is not my response to a public health emergency. Community participation is. And community participation and suppression do not go together.

This is going to be a long haul. You have to be sensible about it.

For example, there is no need for everyone who is corona-positive to come to the hospital. Only the subset which has difficulty breathing should. Everybody else should self-discipline and quarantine themselves.

Don’t have any large gatherings, overloading of buses and crowding in general. Maintain social distancing for six to nine months. Basically, slow the virus down.

But if you apply drastic measures, people will rebel if they don’t have food and milk for their children – and healthcare for other ailments.

Singapore is following the mitigation approach. It's targeted only at suspects and keeping them quarantined

I think these three weeks is an experiment to stem the rise of cases and once over the govt will take a call on how to proceed.

I should point out that vlogger i follow in Wuhan still cannot leave his housing complex. That policy was enacted on Jan 28. Two months and likely one month more. The first week after Jan 28 was chaotic with supplies being disrupted. This sorted itself out within a week and he was able to order online.

What is a reasonable period to keep social distancing measures in place, taking into account India’s socioeconomic realities?
The time frame I cannot be specific about since I have not done any modelling, but say six-nine months.

Long time : (

[kato]

About 80,000 women will deliver today all over India. They will be looking for a place to go and deliver.

This line reminds me of something: In Germany women activists are currently fearing that measures taken with regard to corona will heavily impact abortion rights in the country.

The reason for this is that there are strict boundaries for legal abortion in the country: You need to have counselling with an accredited counselor, then wait three days before the abortion - while searching for someone who will do it because doctors are not allowed to advertise in any way that they abort. And the abortion has to take place within the first 12 weeks of pregnancy.

Measures that impact this now:
- such counselling services have problems with the process (since it requires face-to-face counselling with identification and handover of a written certificate)
- doctors are swamped with appointments from corona patients
- women who want to abort and are corona positive themselves are sent home and not treated
- those doctors who aborted often no longer offer the service now (since it is not a medical emergency)
- travelling across borders to use quicker services abroad is no longer possible (since borders are locked down)

The point with doctors no longer performing abortions is surprisingly often. There's apparently now entire provinces where no doctor will perform an abortion.

[Oracle]

I don't understand what "gap" he is referring to



If we are monitoring all internatinoal passengers since Jan 18. Why is there a gap between what the states do and what has been listed.

Unless its a resourcing problem where in states are unable to keep track of all of them.

States were unable, or simply didn't think it's that big an issue to track. That is my guess.

[Oracle]