Cold War 2.0: US-China

[tantalus]

I would encourage people to take a leap forward and guess what the world could look like in 2030-2040. No doubt american dominance remains for the short through medium term, even with coronavirus.

The future will not be nukes or aircraft carriers. In will be cyber, advanced a.i., quantum computing and emerging disruptive industries centred on digital, robotic and green energy applications. China has and will steal the knowledge, they dont need to capture silicon valley with boots on the ground, or capture the oil fields of saudi arabia, they wont even need a large percentage of the worlds talent, just their intellectual property. They can focus their resources efficiently and leapfrog america to the future, skipping whole social economic trends and reach the end point first.

I also suggest that A.I will be like nothing we have seen before, intelligence beyond human capability, augmented and fused with humans, far more powerful than any tecnology and rapidly transforming all domains, social, economic and military, if the chinese are willing to pursue these technologies no matter the cost and risk with great speed, we risk being outflanked by the CCP.

If the CCP dont moderate and become more extreme in their world view, the risks will be very grave. We have become complacent assuming that we will always live in a world shaped by the united states and the principles they cherish. And that a risk of a dark world died in 44, 45 and 89. Given enough time, if the power continues to concentrate with the CCP and the wrong people within that party, and they continue to make the correct conccenrated economic and technology bets we will have an adversary worthy of the soviet union of 1950 and one that may dwarf it.

[Officer of Engineers]

I would encourage people to take a leap forward and guess what the world could look like in 2030-2040.

This dinosaur would suggest you wouldn't try to look that far. In my day, we only saw two options. A continued Cold War with hot brush wars around the globe (Vietnam and Soviet Afghanistan galore) OR WWIII. None of us saw the collapse of the USSR even three years before it happenned.

None of us foreseen Tienamen Square and then none of us foreseen Chinese students democratic dreams being bought out by CCP dollars.

About the only thing that I can say for certain is that any advance enough AI would sooner or later logic it out that the human race is just too ludicrous to be ruuning the world.

All hail our Lord and Master Skynet.

[Officer of Engineers]

Letting them into the WTO in 2001 was not with that aim in mind ?

The New Opium Wars. Getting them into the WTO was in an attempt to get fair trade practices into China and hence, dollars out of China.

[DOR]

It always amazes me how few people realize that post-1978, China did everything the West demanded.

It deregulated, decentralized, democratized -- yes, there was a one-man dictatorship prior to that, and a collective leadership with regular elections (albeit inside the party) afterwards -- liberalized, and opened up to the world.

But, they didn't just blindly follow advice that was more corporate than diplomatic. They didn't, for example, follow the Japan model and wreck the economy through massive currency manipulation. They didn't follow the Korean model and develop the economy on the back of massive foreign currency loans. Rather, they followed the Taiwan model and kept key components (finance, agriculture) under state control while letting foreign equity pay for the nation's development.

Before someone insists that only a wumao could write such a thing, read some history with an open mind.

[astralis]

the issue is not post-1978, the issue is post-2013.

IE the world could, and did, live with Jiang Zemin's China and Hu Jintao's China.

Xi Jinping has completely changed the calculus-- not just with the US, but with India, Japan, Australia, even the -EU-.

he's changed it so much that people are now wondering if the China hawks weren't right all along, and that everything post-1978 was a mistake just because of Xi.

[hboGYT]

the issue is not post-1978, the issue is post-2013.

IE the world could, and did, live with Jiang Zemin's China and Hu Jintao's China.

Xi Jinping has completely changed the calculus-- not just with the US, but with India, Japan, Australia, even the -EU-.

he's changed it so much that people are now wondering if the China hawks weren't right all along, and that everything post-1978 was a mistake just because of Xi.

What's the likelihood that Xi resigns and lets a more collaborative leader take over? I think the annual retreat of the senior CCP leadership is about to happen. What can we expect from that? Surely Xi will face pressure for all that's transpired.

[astralis]

absolutely none.

there's some grumbling within the rest of the elite but nothing severe enough for an outright challenge. no real potential challenger to rally around either.

[DOR]

absolutely none.

there's some grumbling within the rest of the elite but nothing severe enough for an outright challenge. no real potential challenger to rally around either.

^^^^
What he said.

[tantalus]

It always amazes me how few people realize that post-1978, China did everything the West demanded.

It deregulated, decentralized, democratized -- yes, there was a one-man dictatorship prior to that, and a collective leadership with regular elections (albeit inside the party) afterwards -- liberalized, and opened up to the world.

But, they didn't just blindly follow advice that was more corporate than diplomatic. They didn't, for example, follow the Japan model and wreck the economy through massive currency manipulation. They didn't follow the Korean model and develop the economy on the back of massive foreign currency loans. Rather, they followed the Taiwan model and kept key components (finance, agriculture) under state control while letting foreign equity pay for the nation's development.

Before someone insists that only a wumao could write such a thing, read some history with an open mind.

What Astralis said. Overall I would say it was all going well until it didn't. And it can still work out but now its an open question. Sometimes you can make the right decisions and still get the wrong outcome.

And to add, one of the reasons I fear China so much is because I have much respect and reverence for much of their execution, they understand enigineering and science, they understand the trends and have the patience and resolve to get there. What has become unclear is what will really be their social model/world view and if they can sustain it politically and socially...

[tantalus]

What's the likelihood that Xi resigns and lets a more collaborative leader take over? I think the annual retreat of the senior CCP leadership is about to happen. What can we expect from that? Surely Xi will face pressure for all that's transpired.

He is 67, thats your best chance

[tantalus]

This dinosaur would suggest you wouldn't try to look that far. In my day, we only saw two options. A continued Cold War with hot brush wars around the globe (Vietnam and Soviet Afghanistan galore) OR WWIII. None of us saw the collapse of the USSR even three years before it happenned.

None of us foreseen Tienamen Square and then none of us foreseen Chinese students democratic dreams being bought out by CCP dollars.

Totally agree. But it goes both ways. Now might be a good time to imagine some worst case scenarios and start placing some more determined bets on key technologies.

About the only thing that I can say for certain is that any advance enough AI would sooner or later logic it out that the human race is just too ludicrous to be ruuning the world.

All hail our Lord and Master Skynet.

Ha, Yes that may be a valid conclusion.

But from our perspective it's called the control problem and its unclear if it will be solved on the way to developing the a.i. or if it needs to be developed adjacently. Its also unclear if it is easier or more difficult than simply develpong the ai. Global cooperation is a mess but ideally the world would begin an equivalent of the manhattan project to solve the control problem first, and even slow a.i. research if we think we are getting close until the control problem is resolved. We would be talking about a global regulatory body.

The other scenario is an equivalent of a global arms race. Done fast and without the control probelem solved we are taking a risk with the ai, and if its perfectly safe, we risk a rogue nation (or leader), or a society that has dramatically different values gaining global supremacy.

[Double Edge]

He is 67, thats your best chance

I heard a commentator say he will resign by year's end on health grounds. Make of that what you want : )

Annus horribilis and all..

[DOR]

I heard a commentator say he will resign by year's end on health grounds. Make of that what you want : )

Annus horribilis and all..

Define "a commentator."

I heard a commentator say Taiwan will retake the Mainland, and another say Hong Kong post-1997 will change China more than China will change Hong Kong ...

[JRT]

The U.S., China and Nuclear Deterrence in the Hypersonic Era

On December 1, 2021, The Jamestown Foundation held a webinar on The U.S., China and Nuclear Deterrence in the Hypersonic Era featuring Bates Gill, Professor of Asia-Pacific Security Studies and Head of the Department of Security Studies and Criminology, Macquarie University, and David Logan, Ph.D. Candidate in Security Studies, Princeton University School of Public and International Affairs.

Earlier this month, the Pentagon released its annual China Military Power Report to Congress. The report details the People’s Republic of China’s rapid progress in modernizing, diversifying and expanding its nuclear arsenal, and observes that China may already have a nascent nuclear triad. These revelations follow China’s successful tests of hypersonic weapon systems this summer. For many observers, these developments denote a departure from Beijing’s longstanding approach to nuclear weapons, which was predicated on a “no-first use policy” and maintenance of a small arsenal to achieve minimal deterrence through assured retaliation.

As China and Russia undertake rapid nuclear modernization and develop new strategic delivery systems, the U.S. is also developing its own advanced hypersonic weaponry. At the same time, the Biden administration, which is currently undertaking a nuclear posture review that will be released in early 2022, has stated it seeks to “reduce the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. national strategy”, but will seek to do so in a way that still ensures the US “strategic deterrent remains safe, secure, and effective and that our extended deterrence commitments to our allies remain strong and credible.” The administration has also requested continued funding for ongoing nuclear modernization programs, and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and other senior defense officials have expressed their support for maintaining a full nuclear triad.

In February, the Biden administration extended the New START arms control agreement with Russia, which provides a framework for reducing, limiting, and monitoring nuclear warheads and their strategic delivery systems. Under Biden, the U.S. has continued the Trump administration’s efforts to engage China in nuclear arms control talks, but has largely been rebuffed by Beijing, which claims it maintains a nuclear arsenal at the minimum level necessary to safeguard its national security. However, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has confirmed that President Biden and PRC President Xi Jinping did agree to “begin to carry forward [a] discussion on strategic stability” at their November 15 virtual summit.

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US says China has tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic weapon

DW News
28 October 2021

Top US General Mark Milley has expressed concern over an advanced hypersonic weapons test reportedly carried out by China. He compared it to the Soviet Union's "Sputnik" breakthrough during the Cold War.

The Pentagon's top general said on Wednesday that China is making significant advances in hypersonic weapons systems, which would be difficult for the US to defend against.

Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is the first top Pentagon official to confirm China's successful test.

"What we saw was a very significant event of a test of a hypersonic weapon system. And it is very concerning," Milley told Bloomberg TV.

He also addressed comparisons that have been made to early wins by the Soviet Union in the Cold War space race.

"I don't know if it's quite a Sputnik moment, but I think it's very close to that," the general said.

The Soviet Union launched the Sputnik satellite in 1957, which caught the US by surprise and led to fears it was falling behind technologically in an accelerating arms race.

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Hypersonic Missiles Arms Race: What You Need to Know

The Carnegie Endowment
28 May 2020

Hypersonic missiles can travel faster than five times the speed of sound. Russia and China have invested heavily in different types of hypersonic missiles capable of carrying both nuclear and conventional warheads. The United States has also invested in its hypersonic missile technology. What are hypersonic weapons capable of, and what dangers do they pose to international stability? Is another arms race under way?

About James Acton
Acton holds the Jessica T. Mathews Chair and is co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The Carnegie Endowment advances international peace by leveraging its global network to shape debates and provide decisionmakers with independent insights and innovative ideas on the most consequential global threats and opportunities.

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[JRT]

China accuses US of trying to ‘hijack’ support in Asia
by Syawalludin Zain and David Rising
Sunday, 12 June 2022

SINGAPORE (AP) — China’s defense minister accused the United States on Sunday of trying to “hijack” the support of countries in the Asia-Pacific region to turn them against Beijing, saying Washington is seeking to advance its own interests “under the guise of multilateralism.”

Defense Minister Gen. Wei Fenghe lashed out at U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, rejecting his “smearing accusation” the day before at the Shangri-La Dialogue that China was causing instability with its claim to the self-governing island of Taiwan and its increased military activity in the area.

Austin had stressed the need for multilateral partnerships with nations in the Indo-Pacific, which Wei suggested was an attempt to back China into a corner.

“No country should impose its will on others or bully others under the guise of multilateralism,” he said. “ The strategy is an attempt to build an exclusive small group in the name of a free and open Indo-Pacific to hijack countries in our region and target one specific country — it is a strategy to create conflict and confrontation to contain and encircle others.”

China has been rapidly modernizing its military and seeking to expand its influence and ambitions in the region, recently signing a security agreement with the Solomon Islands that many fear could lead to a Chinese naval base in the Pacific, and breaking ground this past week on a naval port expansion project in Cambodia that could give Beijing a foothold in the Gulf of Thailand.

Last year U.S. officials accused China of testing a hypersonic missile, a weapon harder for missile defense systems to counter, but China insisted it had been a “routine test of a spacecraft.”

Answering a question about the test on Sunday, Wei came the closest so far to acknowledging it was, indeed, a hypersonic missile, saying, “As for hypersonic weapons, many countries are developing weapons and I think there’s no surprise that China is doing so.”

“China will develop its military,” he added. “I think it’s natural.”

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken last month said China represented the “most serious long-term challenge to the international order” for the United States, with its claims to Taiwan and efforts to dominate the strategic South China Sea.

The U.S. and its allies have responded with so-called freedom of navigation patrols in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, sometimes encountering a pushback from China’s military.

Wei accused the U.S. of “meddling in the affairs of our region” with the patrols, and “flexing the muscles by sending warships and warplanes on a rampage in the South China Sea.”

China has squared off with the Philippines and Vietnam, among others, over maritime claims and Wei said it was up to the countries in the region to find their own solutions.

“China calls for turning the South China Sea into a sea of peace, friendship and cooperation,” he said. “This is the shared wish and responsibility of countries in the region.”

Taiwan and China split during a civil war in 1949, but China claims the island as its own territory, and has not ruled out the use of military force to take it, while maintaining it is a domestic political issue.

Washington follows a “one-China” policy, which recognizes Beijing but allows informal relations and defense ties with Taipei. It provides arms to Taiwan and follows a “strategic ambiguity” approach about how far it would be willing to go to defend Taiwan in the face of a Chinese invasion. At the same time, it does not support Taiwanese independence.

President Joe Biden raised eyebrows and China’s pique last month saying that the U.S. would intervene militarily if Taiwan were attacked, though the White House later said the comments did not reflect a policy shift.

Austin on Saturday accused China of threatening to change the status quo on Taiwan with a “steady increase in provocative and destabilizing military activity” near the island.

Wei fired back Sunday that the U.S. was not adhering to its “one-China” policy, saying “it keeps playing the Taiwan card against China.”

He said China’s “greatest wish” was “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan, but also made clear Beijing was willing to do whatever it took to realize its goals.

“China will definitely realize its reunification,” he said. “China’s reunification is a great cause of the Chinese nation, and it is a historical trend that no one and no force can stop.”

He added that China would “resolutely crush any attempt to pursue Taiwan independence.”

“We will not hesitate to fight, we will fight at all costs and we will fight to the very end,” he said. “This is the only choice for China.”

Wei and Austin met one-on-one on Saturday, and Taiwan featured prominently in their discussions, according to the U.S.

On Sunday, Wei met with Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, which the Australian Broadcasting Corp. reported was the first high-level meeting between the two countries in more than two years.

Marles said it had been three years since Chinese and Australian defense ministers had met, and called the meeting a “critical first step.”

“As Sec. Austin observed after his own meeting with Defense Minister Wei, it is really important in these times to have open lines of dialogue,” he told reporters.

“Australia and China’s relationship is complex and it’s precisely because of this complexity that it is really important that we are engaging in dialogue right now.”

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Rising reported from Bangkok. Zen Soo in Hong Kong and Caroline Chen in Beijing contributed to this report.

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