COVID-2019 in America, effect on politics and economy

[DOR]

The Trumpet doesn’t understand that governors can, and if provoked will, screw the president if they are sufficiently motivated. They do not work for him, and have no real obligation to screw over their own constituencies – shareholders, if you will – to please some temporary player. As an outsider to the GOP, The Trumpet can't even count on party loyalty for much longer.

The Trumpet didn’t seem to understand his role as a model, either, until he came up with the lame excuse that his wild underestimations were because he saw himself as “America’s cheerleader.” Yes, he has the intellectual heft of a typical high school cheerleader, and the ego to match. But, he has done nothing useful to calm the situation.

While I believe Mike Bloomberg would be a far, far better president, there are some jobs that are not suitable to the corporate mindset. Politics at the national level is one of them.

[hboGYT]

The Trumpet doesn’t understand that governors can, and if provoked will, screw the president if they are sufficiently motivated. They do not work for him, and have no real obligation to screw over their own constituencies – shareholders, if you will – to please some temporary player. As an outsider to the GOP, The Trumpet can't even count on party loyalty for much longer.

The Trumpet didn’t seem to understand his role as a model, either, until he came up with the lame excuse that his wild underestimations were because he saw himself as “America’s cheerleader.” Yes, he has the intellectual heft of a typical high school cheerleader, and the ego to match. But, he has done nothing useful to calm the situation.

While I believe Mike Bloomberg would be a far, far better president, there are some jobs that are not suitable to the corporate mindset. Politics at the national level is one of them.

That sounds juicy. How would you go about doing it, if you were such a governer?

[Albany Rifles]

AR,



nah, just poorly worded on my part. it's up to the governors to lift their respective state lockdowns/shelter-in-place-- no forcing function from them either, though.

once they do so, however, corporate America will almost certainly start forcing people back to the workplace, like this...special... BoA exec is already telling people.

Got it....I wondered if it was that. Thanks

[DOR]

That sounds juicy. How would you go about doing it, if you were such a governer?

In a nutshell, the 10th Amendment: “The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.” The states are independent, not subordinate jurisdictions.

State governors have significant influence when it comes to political donations, and have been known to run for president themselves. They have a media pulpit (albeit not the same size as the president’s) and at the moment have higher public opinion ratings than The Trumpet. Former governors sit in both houses of congress and probably every cabinet in living memory.

“[Trump] is not in the position of strength when it comes to attacking the governors; they are in a vastly stronger position than he is,” Lichtman said. “It gets him nowhere either substantively or politically.” [as per American University Poli Sci professor Allan Lichtman] … “I think he made a profound mistake going after Gov. [Gretchen] Whitmer in going after the state of Michigan -- that was one of the critical states that he wasn't expected to win, and that he did win in 2016 that put him over the top,” Lichtman said, adding “You would think the last thing that he would want to do would be to disrespect a very popular governor of that state and make it look like he doesn't care about the people of Michigan."

, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trum...ry?id=69879408

Think of immigration enforcement: some states (cities) follow the federal guidelines, and a whole bunch more don’t. Add: Obamacare, education, or whether to reopen for business when the economy is undermining a Trumpet victory in November.

[tbm3fan]

How many heard Gov. Newsom use the phrase nation-state in relation to California? Mmm, what is he implying since the state has the fifth largest economy in the world and supplies the Federal side with 15% of their tax revenue. One state mind you.

Now I know Trump wants to take away California's ability to set emission standards inside her own borders. This along with relaxing mileage standards. Some car manufacturers sign on with California and some with Trump. What would Trump do if California says, and can say, that this manufacturer can no longer sell their cars in our state while those that meet our standards can?

[GVChamp]

That's pretty much what already happens, but it's not at all clear that a waiver grant by administrative fiat cannot be rescinded by administrative fiat. Not really confident that Supreme Court case is going to go California's way.

[Officer of Engineers]

Commentators that say this have no clue about India or Africa : )

The point was that we will not get an accurate picture out of these places and hence, we will not know whether your actions actually worked or not. According to the numbers, India's actions are having the equivelent effect as Pakistan's inactions. The question then becomes, did you hurt your economy for nothing?

Africa is a big place, many countries with lots of time to prepare, some will do better than others.

With the exception of the oil rich Gulf States, again we're not going to get any accurate picture. In some cases, they have bigger problems to deal with. The DRC just had another ebola outbreak. There is also the big danger that people will start using COVID-19 as the excuse for more violence. Reports of culling ebola camps are not unheard of.

[astralis]

hell, just look at -Hungary- for that.

[tbm3fan]

That's pretty much what already happens, but it's not at all clear that a waiver grant by administrative fiat cannot be rescinded by administrative fiat. Not really confident that Supreme Court case is going to go California's way.

Not talking the waiver vis v vis the Supreme Court. Say CA loses in court but prohibits said finished cars into California. In the past it was extremely difficult to bring in 49 state cars unless they could be retrofitted to our smog requirements so many didn't try. I don't believe the Feds can force CA to allow the sale of cars or not. I guess we will see because if I know them in Sacramento they will fight this tooth and nail one way or the other. I sent the suggestion of banning non-compliant cars to my state rep as a thought. We are the biggest market and could hold that over a car company. Will the manufacturers that side with Trump want to put it to the test?

[Double Edge]

The point was that we will not get an accurate picture out of these places and hence, we will not know whether your actions actually worked or not. According to the numbers, India's actions are having the equivelent effect as Pakistan's inactions. The question then becomes, did you hurt your economy for nothing?

Lock down is an inefficient way of quarantine because it quarantines every one. Delays the rate and spread of infection. This part is working but isn't solving anything.

It makes the problem manageable for the govt in the short term. They get time to prepare and build surge capacity. They were unsure i think as to how hard & fast they would get hit so slow things down and monitor.

A few hot spots have cropped up in some areas of cities around the country. They are sealed off Wuhan style.

Solving requires trace, track & treat.

If Pakistan is doing the same thing as we are their case load should be a sixth of ours per million of population. Since it is equivalent it means its six times higher. They aren't testing any faster than we are. Does it matter ? if infections are mild and people can be treated at home then fine but they have a larger work load which is increasing.

We already have over a 100k in quarantine. Out of circulation. If they develop symptoms after they will be tested & treated. They won't show up in the case load until then. So the low affected numbers aren't telling the full story.

As for economy, the vice president has said we will solve this first and worry about the economy later. They have opted for the suppression route first and i expect transition to mitigation after.

Remains to be seen whether the lock down is extended and what the effects will be.

The expectation is longer lock down will solve the problem but the WHO chief said the only way to solve anything was to test & treat.

It's an open question whether the hit to the economy is worth it or not. It buys time, i've yet to be convinced if it solves anything as models predict. Solving means the virus runs its course and cannot infect more people. The model posted here is a best case scenario that does not take asymptomatic into account as there is no data available to model that so only symptomatic are considered.

If you can handle initial surges then you don't need a lock down.

If you can test faster than the infection rate eventually you will notice time to double extending until you don't find any new cases.

All depends how fast the cases show up.

Was watching clips of Beijing & Shanghai from couple of weeks back. Only schools & mass gatherings were stopped and yet when you see the malls and streets there is only 10% of the usual traffic. About twice or more what i see with a lockdown.

Where are the people ? there is no lock down in those cities but so many chose to stay in.

With the exception of the oil rich Gulf States, again we're not going to get any accurate picture. In some cases, they have bigger problems to deal with. The DRC just had another ebola outbreak. There is also the big danger that people will start using COVID-19 as the excuse for more violence. Reports of culling ebola camps are not unheard of.

They have a chance at containment like Taiwan. Some countries closed their borders others allowed them.

What i'm referring to is people implying these countries inevitably reach Stage 4 with no end in sight.

They said we'd never succeed with polio, we did. Then it was AIDS and how that would be unmangeable, the affordable retrovirals tackled that.

[Officer of Engineers]

Some countries closed their borders others allowed them.

Closing their borders? This is the Ugandan-Rwandan Border.

You don't need to be a soldier to see how incredibly easy to have massive leakage.

[Double Edge]

Closing their borders? This is the Ugandan-Rwandan Border.

You don't need to be a soldier to see how incredibly easy to have massive leakage.

Flights i meant. Eithiopia flew every where

[kato]

Closing their borders? This is the Ugandan-Rwandan Border.
You don't need to be a soldier to see how incredibly easy to have massive leakage.

This is the border between Germany and France, for comparison. The line where the tarmac changes.

[Officer of Engineers]

Flights i meant. Eithiopia flew every where

Ebola, H1N1 travelled by foot through Africa ... and so does COVID-19.

[Officer of Engineers]

This is the border between Germany and France, for comparison. The line where the tarmac changes.

Just goes to the point that closing borders ain't going to stop COVID-19.

There's a house in Quebec where the backyard and part of the house is in Canada, and the front part in the US. It's a very unusual house in that it has two property tax bills from two different countries.