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Thread: 2020 US/Iranian Crisis

  1. #16
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Hahahaha. Very good. Blown to smithereens. His remains were identified with one his fingers with whatever ring he was wearing, rest of his body went straight to hell. How's the 72 homos General?
    Last edited by Oracle; 03 Jan 20, at 16:25.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

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  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Relieved you did not refer to this as a tail wag the dog moment ; )
    No need for me to refer to it as such. Donald Trump took care of that himself...repeatedly:

    Quote Originally Posted by statquo View Post
    "In order to get elected, @BarackObama will start a war with Iran."
    -Donald Trump, tweeted Nov 29, 2011

    “Now that Obama’s numbers are in a tailspin watch for him to launch a strike in Libya or Iran. He is desperate."
    - Donald Trump, tweeted on Oct. 6, 2012

    “Don’t let Obama play the Iran card in order to start a war in order to get elected – be careful Republicans!”
    - Donald Trump, tweeted on Oct. 22, 2012

    “Remember that I predicted a long time ago that President Obama will attack Iran because of his inability to negotiate properly – not skilled!”
    - Donald Trump, tweeted on Nov. 12, 2012
    To be clear, I don't think this was necessarily a Wag The Dog moment. The attack on the Embassy and the presence of the Quds force leader inside Iraq was a massive provocation/escalation on the part of Iran.

    So, in all likelihood, any domestic political benefit by Trump is merely a pleasant bonus for him. It remains to be seen if it blows up in his face or gives him a massive "George W Bush immediately after 9/11" boost.

    Although Trump's November 12th 2012 tweet certainly is morbidly amusing in retrospect.
    “You don’t even have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this constitutional republic if the Senate determines that your conduct as a public official is clearly out of bounds in your role… because impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”
    ~ Lindsey Graham

    "The notion that you can withhold information and documents from Congress no matter whether you are the party in power or not in power is wrong. Respect for the rule of law must mean something, irrespective of the vicissitudes of political cycles."
    ~ Trey Gowdy

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    It was a brilliant airstrike, it cleaned up a whole lot of filth. They've also made major arrests through Baghdad of the various Iranian militiaapparently. The problem is, what happens next....
    Yep, agree 100 percent. The Department of Unintended Consequences always gets the last word.

    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    Couldn't agree more, just be prepared for things to escalate quickly. While it would be nice if they did, Iran is unlikely to take this lying down.
    Agreed again.

    If they're smart about it, they'll use unconventional/insurgent-style tactics.

    If they're incredibly stupid, they'll do something like close the Straits, which as Double Edge pointed out would be a massive escalation.
    “You don’t even have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this constitutional republic if the Senate determines that your conduct as a public official is clearly out of bounds in your role… because impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”
    ~ Lindsey Graham

    "The notion that you can withhold information and documents from Congress no matter whether you are the party in power or not in power is wrong. Respect for the rule of law must mean something, irrespective of the vicissitudes of political cycles."
    ~ Trey Gowdy

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Maybe that was the final straw but the context is nearly a decade of your guys being targeted in the region (primarily in Iraq) by Quds. Not explicitly as in they go looking for it but should US forces get in the way of Iran's plans & designs for the region then they will engage with whoever.
    I think that's correct, the last straw. Certainly having the Quds force leader deep inside Iraq was a massive provocation. High Risk/High Reward for Iran, but it eventually caught up with them.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    I'm surprised they got the Quds leader. Because you'd think he'd be hard to find.
    Yes and No. All it takes is one informant/turncoat, or other such good intel work by the U.S. (SIGINT perhaps) and/or sloppy counterintel work by Iran.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    It means they could have got him sooner but did not. This shows restraint.
    Possibly. It all depends on when they received the intel on his exact location.

    I'm going to make an amateur guess and say the U.S. likely knew he was in-country, but not exactly where, and he likely changed locations frequently.
    “You don’t even have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this constitutional republic if the Senate determines that your conduct as a public official is clearly out of bounds in your role… because impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”
    ~ Lindsey Graham

    "The notion that you can withhold information and documents from Congress no matter whether you are the party in power or not in power is wrong. Respect for the rule of law must mean something, irrespective of the vicissitudes of political cycles."
    ~ Trey Gowdy

  5. #20
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    Yes and No. All it takes is one informant/turncoat, or other such good intel work by the U.S. (SIGINT perhaps) and/or sloppy counterintel work by Iran.
    This dude was leaving digital fingerprints up on all fronts supporting Shi'tte militant groups, and against ISIS.

    You guys forget how good NSA is.

    Possibly. It all depends on when they received the intel on his exact location.

    I'm going to make an amateur guess and say the U.S. likely knew he was in-country, but not exactly where, and he likely changed locations frequently.
    NSA knew exactly where he was, what he was doing 1 day prior to his execution, 2 days prior to - which whore he rented to warm his bed.

    You need to give credit to all the unnamed men and women from the NSA.
    Last edited by Oracle; 03 Jan 20, at 17:24.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  6. #21
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Well we definitely got a short term gain. However, we tend not to be so good at seeing what the long term will be.

    Iran is embedded throughout the region. We want to get out of the region.

    I am very sure the Iranian leaders have long term plans and goals already formulated. Trump is an in the moment guy and has never been known for any kind of long term vision outside of self-promotion.

    Will this deter Iran in any way? If I had to put $100 down I would have to lay it on red for no. I know I wouldn't want to be an American, any American, in the region now.

    Laws of unintended consequences now comes into play with all the twists and turns.

    Kind of reminds me of Vietnam. The conflict was in the backyard of Ho and Giap and there was no way they were giving up. Here, this is in Iran's backyard, and I see them just as stubborn.

  7. #22
    Senior Contributor surfgun's Avatar
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    A lot of people are glad that this monster is dead. Including many Iraqi and Iranian citizens. https://www.theblaze.com/news/iraqis...reet-soleimani

  8. #23
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    No need for me to refer to it as such. Donald Trump took care of that himself...repeatedly:



    To be clear, I don't think this was necessarily a Wag The Dog moment. The attack on the Embassy and the presence of the Quds force leader inside Iraq was a massive provocation/escalation on the part of Iran.

    So, in all likelihood, any domestic political benefit by Trump is merely a pleasant bonus for him. It remains to be seen if it blows up in his face or gives him a massive "George W Bush immediately after 9/11" boost.

    Although Trump's November 12th 2012 tweet certainly is morbidly amusing in retrospect.
    It would appear Trump was more motivated in avoiding a Benghazi like scenario and the Pentagon figured they'd get some housekeeping done too.

  9. #24
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    Yes and No. All it takes is one informant/turncoat, or other such good intel work by the U.S. (SIGINT perhaps) and/or sloppy counterintel work by Iran.

    Possibly. It all depends on when they received the intel on his exact location.

    I'm going to make an amateur guess and say the U.S. likely knew he was in-country, but not exactly where, and he likely changed locations frequently.
    I'll go further and say the US was tracking the Quds force chief over a period of time and could have got him earlier.

    Why they did not and what the thinking was to do it now is what i would like to know.

    They did not get lucky like OBL.

    A decision was made this time which wasn't forthcoming earlier.

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    I'll go further and say the US was tracking him and could have got him earlier.
    We have no proof either way, only our own uninformed speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Why they did not and what the thinking was to do it now is what i would like to know.
    If indeed they did know, then yeah that would be an interesting read.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    They did not get lucky like OBL.
    Setting aside the element of luck (or random chance operating favorably) in all events, there was no luck with OBL, per se. There was an informer.
    “You don’t even have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this constitutional republic if the Senate determines that your conduct as a public official is clearly out of bounds in your role… because impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”
    ~ Lindsey Graham

    "The notion that you can withhold information and documents from Congress no matter whether you are the party in power or not in power is wrong. Respect for the rule of law must mean something, irrespective of the vicissitudes of political cycles."
    ~ Trey Gowdy

  11. #26
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    There won’t be a 'war' with Iran

    Oil is up and stocks are down on fears of escalating hostilities between the United States and Iran. But the U.S. killing of senior Iranian official Qassem Soleimani, and the Iranian retribution likely to follow, won’t become a traditional war between the two nations. Instead, Iran is likely to pursue “asymmetrical” actions against American interests that fall short of outright military provocation and may be hard to pin on Iran’s theocratic regime.

    The U.S. strike targeted Soleimani, who headed Iran’s version of a special-operations command, because he has planned many attacks against American forces in the Middle East and was probably involved in the violent protests at the U.S. embassy at the end of 2019. Those protests followed a U.S. strike on an Iranian backed militia in Iraq on Dec. 27, which was itself a response to a militia attack that killed a U.S. contractor. So the Soleimani killing was itself part of a cycle of tribal warfare between the United States and Iran that will no doubt continue.

    But Iran would be foolish to attempt a traditional showdown with the U.S. military. Iran can attack U.S. ships in the Persian Gulf, and probably cause some damage. The Iranian navy could probably shut the Strait of Hormuz, the entrance to the Gulf, a key transit point for about 20% of the world’s oil. That would undoubtedly send oil prices far higher than the 4% spike that hit after the Soleimani killing, causing temporary distress in global economies.

    But Iran can’t defeat the U.S. military or close the Strait of Hormuz for more than a few weeks, and it knows that. “Leaders in Tehran have a healthy respect for U.S. power and likely recognize they have little to gain from an all-out war,” writes analyst Henry Rome of the Eurasia Group. Iran’s economy is in trouble, and a full-out war with the United States would make everything worse. It could also weaken internal support for a regime already on shaky ground and end with the destruction of much of Iran’s military.

    The odds of a military conflict
    Eurasia Group estimates a 28% likelihood of a short, limited conflict. It puts the odds of a broader war involving attacks on oil infrastructure at just 12%. Overall, that’s a 40% chance of some kind of war.

    The outlook for the other 60% is hardly rosy, however. That is likely to involve more Iranian attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and an effort to push U.S. forces out of Iraq completely. “Some U.S. soldiers will be killed,” Eurasia Group predicts. “The U.S. will retaliate with strikes inside of Iraq.”

    Financial markets are exposed to this geopolitical tribalism almost exclusively through oil prices, and through uncertainty about where oil prices are headed. Shale oil drilling in the United States has made the U.S. economy less vulnerable than it used to be to a Middle East oil shock—but not impervious.

    Research firm ESAI Energy warns against complacency. “Statements that the oil market has tremendous spare capacity and can easily weather a new disruption are glib and misleading,” the firm advises. “An extended period of conflict in the region will support prices by fueling uncertainty, even as alternative suppliers step up.”

    Like Eurasia Group, ESAI thinks the escalation between the United States and Iran will play out mainly in Iraq, where the government is weak and Iran has become deeply influential. Iran could target oil facilities in Iraq, which account for about 5% of world production. And of course it’s always possible Iran could attack oil infrastructure outside Iraq, as it apparently did with a missile attack on Saudi oil facilities last September. But any such attack traceable to Iran invites U.S. retaliation, and with the strike on Soleimani, President Trump has signaled he’s willing to act.

    Trump, for his part, will now have to contend with foreign hostilities he can’t completely control, as he asks voters to reelect him in November. Trump campaigned on getting U.S. troops out of trouble spots such as the Middle East, yet he is now sending more troops to the region, to reinforce the embassy and respond to other incidents. With 10 months until the 2020 elections, the Iran story is far from over. Even if it doesn’t lead to war, it could still end badly for Trump.
    _______________

    Unless there's a "Camlan Problem" as expounded upon by Herman Kahn, I believe this is the most likely scenario: Matters will be kept "locally" in Iraq.
    “You don’t even have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this constitutional republic if the Senate determines that your conduct as a public official is clearly out of bounds in your role… because impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”
    ~ Lindsey Graham

    "The notion that you can withhold information and documents from Congress no matter whether you are the party in power or not in power is wrong. Respect for the rule of law must mean something, irrespective of the vicissitudes of political cycles."
    ~ Trey Gowdy

  12. #27
    Dirty Kiwi Senior Contributor
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    I presume this was in reaction to the attack on the US embassy in Baghdad.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50979463
    In the original BBC report they suggested this
    Iraq militia heads have been detained
    since deleted.

    If true, it's speaks of far greater logistics and therefore far greater planning beforehand. It also speaks of far greater co-operation with the Iraqi government than I had been assuming. One wonders if the rats were leaving in a hurry before they got swept up, which would explain so many of the fuckers in one convoy, aiming for one flight.
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  13. #28
    Dirty Kiwi Senior Contributor
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    In this photo I'm seeing two, maybe three vehicles

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  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    You need to give credit to all the unnamed men and women from the NSA.
    I did :-) That's why I specifically mentioned SIGINT
    “You don’t even have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this constitutional republic if the Senate determines that your conduct as a public official is clearly out of bounds in your role… because impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”
    ~ Lindsey Graham

    "The notion that you can withhold information and documents from Congress no matter whether you are the party in power or not in power is wrong. Respect for the rule of law must mean something, irrespective of the vicissitudes of political cycles."
    ~ Trey Gowdy

  15. #30
    Dirty Kiwi Senior Contributor
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    Well, I got it all wrong. I'd assumed he was fleeing Iraq. According to this infographic though, he'd just arrived

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    In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

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