Jaish terrorists attack CRPF convoy in Kashmir, 40 killed

[kuku]

Those chaps are in their 40s now.
They atmosphere in several area's has sustained, but that is a different thing, they are only able to operate becuase of the huge network created with the aim of sustaining the conflict to any end necessary.

[Agnostic Muslim]

All i get is the camps are moving further away from India. To get to India they have to reach launchpads which will be vulnerable. The result should be reduced infiltration. Less infiltration less militancy. That is the desired outcome. Will take at least a year to know if this is true or not.

'Launch pads'? Is this another Indian media term similar to the non-existent Border Action Teams (BAT)? A 'launch pad' would be nothing more than a temporary shelter (rent something from a local AK resident) prior to attempting crossing the LoC. There's no need for some kind of permanent sophisticated infrastructure here. Too much faith is being put in these fanciful terms thrown about in the media.

Not grapevine, these suggestions are made in Caspian report video. It's an opinion.

The Indian military has respect for the Pak military. Anything less would be unprofessional

In a talk an Indian air marshal when talking about the downed Pak pilot offered condolences to his grieving family for their brave son whose dad is an air marshal. It's too bad his contribution will go unnoticed.

I haven't see that video but will check it out, and grapevine is opinion, gossip, whatever you want to call it. I'm not suggesting it's any more than that.

With respect to the PAF pilot - no one's been shot down. The whole story about an Air Marshall's son was debunked a long time ago (the named air marshall had/has no sons in the PAF, both sons are in the UK), as was the Facebook post alleging that a 'mob lynched an F-16 pilot. I haven't pushed the 2 IAF fighters shot down claim because there is no open source evidence to support it. I would expect you to do the same when it comes to the, so far unsubstantiated, claims of the IAF shooting down an F-16.

Some Pakistanis have put together a compilation of images showing:
1. Missile fragments still attached to one of the wings of the Mig-21 showing that one R73 and one R-77 were not launched

2. Images showing a broken R-73 and R-77 (neither appears to have detonated).

That would make 2 R-73's and 2-R-77's, plus the centerline fuel tank (which was also recovered as seen in various images). And I believe that's a full load-out of the Mig-21. So Abhinandan couldn't have possibly shot down anything since it doesn't appear he fired any of his missiles.

[Agnostic Muslim]

But you can see a clear trend in increase of attacks in Kashmir isn't it. Pathankot, Uri & Nagrota weren't locals.

What i'm looking for is credible evidence that the Pak military has stopped using terror as an instrument of state policy towards India.

We'll deal with other attacks. Naxals have nothing to do with Pakistan, we don't blame you for those.


Because the infiltrations are ongoing. The commanders that were killed in the last couple of years were Pakistani.

Look, 14 countries of the UNSC sided with India on listing Masod Azhar. They agreed he was based in Pakistan.

A proscribed org that is also banned in Pakistan still continues to operate in Pakistan.

It isn't just India you have to convince but increasingly the rest of the world on this subject.

What you're seeing is infiltration continuing - cross border smuggling and illegal movement across borders happens all over the world - that isn't evidence of the Pakistani State or any of its institutions pushing those infiltrators through. I've admitted that containment isn't perfect, and over time containment weakens, because these groups exist for a purpose and you can only prevent them from conducting operations in pursuit of their ideological/religious/political goals for so long before things fall apart. They don't need a green light from the ISI to carry out operations or cross the LoC. A JeM recruit or commander didn't join the organization to sip tea in Bahawalpur for the rest of his life. Hence my point that within Pakistan there has been a realization for several years now that these groups need to be neutralized, and they will be, though not on India's timetable since Pakistan has to keep in mind the domestic fallout and manage it as best it can.

With respect to Masood Azhar - no one is questioning that he's in Pakistan, and part of the 'containment' was to try and provide secondary activities for these groups - they run genuine charities that have often been at the scene of disasters before the government and offered significant disaster relief. They run genuine hospitals, pharmacies, ambulance services, shelters, food banks etc. Shutting them down has been difficult, but I believe the government has the political capital and space to start the process. Whether it's successful as part of a longer term mainstreaming process, only time will tell.

[Double Edge]

'Launch pads'? Is this another Indian media term similar to the non-existent Border Action Teams (BAT)? A 'launch pad' would be nothing more than a temporary shelter (rent something from a local AK resident) prior to attempting crossing the LoC. There's no need for some kind of permanent sophisticated infrastructure here. Too much faith is being put in these fanciful terms thrown about in the media.

It's an official term going by the DGMO's statememt

LeT was targeted in that raid raid in 2016

BAT's are used to help infiltrators across. When we catch any alive they tell us how they arrived.

With respect to the PAF pilot - no one's been shot down.

Check out the show notes of the video linked here

There's three people ejecting. From that you can deduce the other two are PAF. If they were Indian it would be all over the media like with Abhinandan.

[Double Edge]

What you're seeing is infiltration continuing - cross border smuggling and illegal movement across borders happens all over the world - that isn't evidence of the Pakistani State or any of its institutions pushing those infiltrators through.

Not referring to smuggling & illegal movement. Just infiltration.

Infiltration and by that i mean operatives happens with the assistance of the Pak border guards who fire while these people come in. That is state involvement.

I've admitted that containment isn't perfect, and over time containment weakens, because these groups exist for a purpose and you can only prevent them from conducting operations in pursuit of their ideological/religious/political goals for so long before things fall apart. They don't need a green light from the ISI to carry out operations or cross the LoC. A JeM recruit or commander didn't join the organization to sip tea in Bahawalpur for the rest of his life. Hence my point that within Pakistan there has been a realization for several years now that these groups need to be neutralized, and they will be, though not on India's timetable since Pakistan has to keep in mind the domestic fallout and manage it as best it can.

Infiltration does not require a green light, its part of ongoing operations. Pulwama definitely did. BY commanders i mean militants fighting the Indian army in Kashmir.

With respect to Masood Azhar - no one is questioning that he's in Pakistan, and part of the 'containment' was to try and provide secondary activities for these groups - they run genuine charities that have often been at the scene of disasters before the government and offered significant disaster relief. They run genuine hospitals, pharmacies, ambulance services, shelters, food banks etc. Shutting them down has been difficult, but I believe the government has the political capital and space to start the process. Whether it's successful as part of a longer term mainstreaming process, only time will tell.

They also agree he's a terrorist leading an org that got designated in 2001 that still exists to this day.

[Double Edge]

Double Edge

This has been going on for a long time, from the 2010's Agnostic Muslim had the standard Pakistani info war argument;
Pakistan has suffered more from terrorism than anyone else,
PA is incompetent to let the groups operate from Pakistan, and not their accomplices.
We've killed more terrorists than anyone else.
No Pakistani involvement behind Mumbai Attacks and rest of attacks inside India, the attacks on Indian Embassy and missions in Afghanistan. etc. etc. everything but the obvious.

Its a broken record playing on this forum for a long long time now.

Meanwhile Let, JeM, HM continue to operate under military protection, even after the Mumbai Attacks.

You do realize that they want evidence to return an Indian fugitive who escaped as a result of a hi jacking (Masood Azhar), and they are actively hiding Dawood Ibrahim, a certified International criminal of Indian citizenship just because he helped them in the Mumbai bombings.

Its a wall and you are beating you head against it.

In 10 years from now we would be reading the same arguments and denials.

As for the bolded bit, read Katju's article. If we continue on the present path meaning present policy towards militants and Pak sponsored terrorism then i think ten years from now the problem will be greatly reduced.

The problem begins if the policy is interrupted. There should no let up. This applies in Kashmir as well. Keep at it until the problem is greatly reduced. No cease fires that allow militants to recover & regroup.

Regardless of who is in office the policy must be maintained. Keep mowing the grass at regular intervals.

Make a policy and stick to it, don't just continue to manage the problem like the last three decades.

[Double Edge]

From a couple of IAF pilots

Hell for leather | Medium | Mar 12 2019

An interesting analysis of the dogfight
Balakot and After: IAF demonstrates full spectrum capability | FP | Mar 11 2019

The Naushera sub-sector of Jammu and Kashmir has tremendous significance for the Indian armed forces as it has seen much action in all the three wars with Pakistan (47-48, 1965 and 1971). It is largely over this sector that multiple engagements took place between the Indian Air Force (IAF) and the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) in what is emerging to be one of the largest short-of-war aerial engagements since WW II.

the surprise and deception element of Su-30MKI decoys posturing towards Bahawalpur, the Jaish-e-Mohammed headquarters, while the main package headed north from Gwalior towards the main target.

We deceived them into thinking we'd hit JeM HQ : O

The first engagement took place in the south with two Mirage 2000s intercepting a large package of more than eight aircraft under extremely effective AWACS control in the airspace high over Jammu. Armed with beyond-visual-range (BVR) missile MICA missiles and likely to have been the upgraded Mirage 2000s, they would have locked on first to the JF-17s, duelling with them at long distances and conversing among themselves as the battle progressed ‘going hot’ and ‘going cold’, or ‘extending’ and ‘exiting’—all of it typical fighter pilot jargon across the world that indicates different stages of BVR combat. Frustrated at being unable to clear the Mirage 5s to proceed towards their intended target, the PAF formation would have turned back—not something unheard of or unprofessional—living to fight another day is a wise strategy in tough times.

One deduction from this engagement if the forces painted are right is the clear superiority of the upgraded Mirage 2000 over the JF-17!

As an experienced fighter pilot, while I would gladly take in all the chatter about the MiG-21 Bison vs F-16 bit, I would rather stress on two propositions.

First, is that close combat is still alive and kicking in symmetrical air combat.

Second, individual decision-making by the ‘man behind the machine’ can bridge the technology gap and remains as relevant as it was in the days of the Spitfire vs Messerschmitt duels of WW II.

[kuku]

As for the bolded bit, read Katju's article. If we continue on the present path meaning present policy towards militants and Pak sponsored terrorism then i think ten years from now the problem will be greatly reduced.

The problem begins if the policy is interrupted. There should no let up. This applies in Kashmir as well. Keep at it until the problem is greatly reduced. No cease fires that allow militants to recover & regroup.

Regardless of who is in office the policy must be maintained. Keep mowing the grass at regular intervals.

Make a policy and stick to it, don't just continue to manage the problem like the last three decades.

In the coming decade, Pakistan and their proxies are going to unleash hell in Afghanistan and they will have support from KSA and allies to oppose Iranian Influence
Iran and India will have to stand by Afghanistan.
I don't think PA has any problems sustaining what is going on right now.

[Double Edge]

In the coming decade, Pakistan and their proxies are going to unleash hell in Afghanistan and they will have support from KSA and allies to oppose Iranian Influence
Iran and India will have to stand by Afghanistan.

Agree, hopefully we've set an example for the other two to follow. Those Afghans have had a taste of the future and they are not going back.

Katju had a nice analogy for explaining what was happening in Afghanistan now.

The Americans & Taliban are cooking a dish. The guests better like it or lump it.

I don't think PA has any problems sustaining what is going on right now.

How long till we get hit again ?

[Double Edge]

Govt shared classified images of the strike with some journalists. Classified means we don't get to see them.

Five IAF Spice 2000 bombs hit JeM camps in Balakot, govt satellite images show | The Print | Mar 19 2019

Will foreign outlets update their reports as a result. No, unless they saw them too. So their earlier reports casting doubt will remain.

[Double Edge]

US asks Pakistan to act against terrorists, says another attack on India will be ‘extremely problematic’ | PTI | Mar 21 2019

Reiterating that the United States is looking for “irreversible action”, the official said America is working with its international partners to increase pressure on Pakistan. “Because it has been too long that these groups have been able to operate.”

Observing that Pakistan has economic concerns as well, the official said the Financial Action Tasks Force (FATF) is one area which demonstrates the need for them to take these actions against terror groups. “Otherwise, they’re at risk within the system and the FATF to be grey-listed,” the official said.

Pakistan needs to decide if it wants to be viewed as a responsible international player and have access to all the financial mechanisms that are available or is it going to continue to fail to take the steps necessary against these terrorist groups and see itself further isolated. “The choice is Pakistan’s,” the senior administration official asserted.

While the situation between the two South Asian neighbours have de-escalated, the two armies are still on high alert and that concerns the US, the official said.

“So, we realize that if there, God forbid, would be another terrorist attack that you could quickly see the escalation in the situation once again. So that’s why, we’re making clear that any additional military action by either side runs an unacceptably high risk, for both countries and for the region,” the official said.

The Trump Administration, the official said, has taken sort of a “zero tolerance policy” on the issue of safe havens to terrorists.

This is what Katju was saying, post balakote the first step of the escalation ladder starts with the terrorist attack instead of India's reaction

So instead of Pakistan using the world to deter us after an attack, now the world is deterring them to ensure we don't get attacked

[Agnostic Muslim]

It's an official term going by the DGMO's statememt

Just because the Indian DGMO comes up with terms doesn't make them any more true, as is the case with the concocted BAT's.

What exactly is a 'launch pad', aside from whatever residence/cave/hole the militants can acquire to stay in prior to attempting crossing the LoC?

LeT was targeted in that raid raid in 2016

A raid that whose veracity is now being questioned as well, given the lies exposed over the Balakot strikes.

BAT's are used to help infiltrators across. When we catch any alive they tell us how they arrived.

BAT's don't exist - the term itself is an Indian concoction. Why on earth would highly trained Army special forces be put in a team with militants whose ability to follow orders and training is suspect?

Check out the show notes of the video linked here

There's three people ejecting. From that you can deduce the other two are PAF. If they were Indian it would be all over the media like with Abhinandan.

The unofficial Pakistani position is that the pilots were from either an Indian Mirage 2000 or Sukhoi, and landed in India which is why they weren't captured by Pakistani forces. The facebook account talking about an 'Air Marshall's son and lynching' was debunked by multiple sources, including an Indian fact checking site. There is absolutely zero evidence that a Pakistani F-16 was shot down.

[Agnostic Muslim]

Govt shared classified images of the strike with some journalists. Classified means we don't get to see them.

Five IAF Spice 2000 bombs hit JeM camps in Balakot, govt satellite images show | The Print | Mar 19 2019

Will foreign outlets update their reports as a result. No, unless they saw them too. So their earlier reports casting doubt will remain.

Right, sure, "classified", as in doctored or accompanied by speculation to bolster the Indian POV.

Independent satellite imagery analysis shows no holes, no destruction, no damage. It's a sign of how badly the Indian government has brainwashed its populace that people are still clinging to ridiculous claims about 'destruction and casualties at Balakot'.

The same thing was pointed out about the 2016 'surgical strikes', that whatever occurred was nothing beyond what normally happens between the 2 armies (small scale cross border raids), and there was no evidence provided then either, with the Pakistani Army taking local and foreign journalists to the alleged site of the strikes.

So when it comes to actually providing credible evidence to back up claims, whether it's land based surgical strikes in 2016, IAF strikes in 2019, or claims of shooting down a Pakistani F-16, the Indian government score is zero right now.

Hiding behind, "a handful of Indian journalists were shown classified satellite imagery' might be enough to convince the Modi Bakhts who simply can't comprehend failing against Pakistan, but it isn't convincing almost anyone else in the rest of the world.

[Oracle]

Right! So, we're back to arguing with the terror apologist, the guy who resides in the West, but always parrots ISI laced script. Good, continue. Show him his place. Show him why nobody, no single country trusts Pakistan any more. LOL. Funny, what Pakistanis themselves have made of it these days. A BIG LAUGHING STOCK.

Oh, btw, ghazis released some goddamn film about PAF, which bombed at their box-office. Even Paks cinema don't run without our movies. Says so much shit about them. India should stop giving visa to terminally ill Paks. India ain't a fcuking charity event, that they come and go as they like, and kill our security forces and civilians. India is, however always open for those Paks who talk about state supported terrorism that is on-going inside Pakistan for decades. Can't name them for obvious reasons, an ISI poodle is here. Must be a general's son.

[Oracle]

Some random tidbits. Why are 99.9999999999999% of the terrorist attacks in the world Islamic terrorism? It's because the PA/ISI is involved in all those killings in some way or other. Just like we now know Osama was hidden and well protected by the PA/ISI, these attacks in the west, in due course of time will also get their air-time. But, we all know, who the culprit is, ain't it? :D :D

Osama the great! Jihad! Jihad! Jihad! Kill all infidels! Kill all Jews! Kill all Christians! Kill all Hindus! Kill all Ahmadis! Kill all Balochis! Kill all Pushtuns! Great going Pakistan. In due course of time, Pakistan Army & ISI, will have only illiterate jihadis and donkeys to rule. Modern Jihadi Pakistan.