Jaish terrorists attack CRPF convoy in Kashmir, 40 killed

[Double Edge]

Why have a military, if those that man it, are not bloodthirsty.

Aim of war is to kill the others will to fight ; )

You can do that in many ways.

That is what pro's do.

[Double Edge]

So we absorb small hits. Bigger ones we retaliate.

I think that is a concise way of putting across our present policy towards Pakistan.

[Oracle]

I want to know the truth, so I am posting a counter narrative.

India’s and Pakistan’s Lies Thwarted a War—For Now

[Oracle]

Interesting insight on chinese thinking and how it can be used by Pakistan

The Paks are using that old template, aren't they? Deterrence still stands, in the sense that a full blown conflict is not on either country's mind. India has not figured out how to respond to continued Pak provocations, and take the battle to its logical end.

Pakistan likely to be in two minds to retaliate after IAF airstrikes, India can ill-afford to lower its guard | Firstpost | Feb 27 2019

So with the next India strike, Pak's job is to come with a response that deters any future strikes on their territory. Can they do it ?

Part i'm struggling with is how do you regain something you never had.

Earlier India was more afraid, now its less afraid and the Pak goal is to make India more afraid again...

Pak doesn't have the conventional wherewithal to match up to India. Short of starting a war, I don't see how the Pakistanis can do anything meaningful. Here again, they'll be the ones admonished by the international community, and China is not known to be a reliable ally either.

They tried this time, they failed with their air-raid, unless shooting down a vintage Mig-21B with a modern F-16 Block-D can be termed a satisfactory response. IAF made a mistake of chasing F-16s into their territory and paid for it. Lesson learnt.

[Oracle]

Aim of war is to kill the others will to fight ; )

You can do that in many ways.

That is what pro's do.

You can't kill the will, unless you have killed them all, save a few.

I think that is a concise way of putting across our present policy towards Pakistan.

Which is imperfect. India needs to raise the stakes inside Pak. Only then will Pak understand what playing with fire looks and feels like.

[Oracle]

Point i want to make is they are rational regardless of whatever enmity they have. If they are rational then they will behave more predictably than not. This means we have a pretty good idea when they will and won't go nuclear. Khalid Kidwai is their nuke guy and from what i've heard they are more rational about this than we think.

Rational to the point of not using nukes, you say. That is debatable, since one cannot discount the jihadi generals among the rank and file of the PA. With tactical nukes in the hands of battlefield commanders, nuke exchange become more of a possibility. Look, every Tom, Dick and Harry knows Pak won't win a war with India, conventional or nuclear, but having said that I don't want any war that is unplanned (even if thrust on us), without clear OPOBJs and without adequate firepower. That should be medium term.

Now, as per Khalid Kidwai, Pakistan's red lines on first use of nukes rests on 4 parameters - territorial, attritional, economic and stability. Which in jihadi language means Indians don't dare do shit, or the Paks would rain nukes. I mean, what is this, a jihadi video game? Going by Pak redlines, even a pin-prick would invite Pak nukes. You know what, this is the result when educated mullahs are given the responsibility of preparing a nuclear doctrine. Every major power, who have the means are watching Pak and India 24X7. Pak has Djinns who'd mate their invisible warheads to their invisible missiles?

Pakistan is one of the least stable countries in this world, they have screwed up their economy in the name of Allah, mullah and military, PA sees attrition routinely from hit and run raids by the BLA as also other groups, and their territory is used by terrorists at will. There goes Pakistan's red-lines. Fun you see.

The only nuke signaling that occurred is they showed that clip of their NCA meeting, with Imran swivelling left & right on his chair. NCA deals with nuclear as well. No sabre rattling, no threats. Long back Pervez said if even one Indian soldier crosses the LoC he'd go nuclear.

They have played this canard for so long, it no longer sells.

As about Musharraf, we all now know he was bluffing. They didn't have a working device to detonate on India, then.

Musharaf did play a helpful role to defuse tensions there. I wonder why.

Musharraf knows what a nuke war can do. I don't think he played any role in diffusing current tensions, he is a loud mouth, and inadvertently gave out the Pakistani position w.r.t. nukes. Doctrine for show, de-escalation when it comes to using nukes. At this point, I don't know how many supporters he has in Pak, some pindi boys maybe.

I was listening to a talk at carnegie yesterday and Vipin Narang was saying had a bombing run gone bad say, we missed and killed civilians or when they tried to respond the same happened that we would be in a very different situation.

So he's talking about mistakes that could happen causing unexpected escalation rather than planned. The chance is small but not negligible.

Mistakes can always happen, but that situation does not amount to the Paks using nukes. They can escalate conventionally, and lose. A conventionally weaker India is still two times stronger than Pakistan.

The other point was he found people kept downplaying the impact of the strikes. The ordinance used was low but effective. Thing is it didn't result in visible damage and whether the next time we'd use different ammunition that would instead flatten the buildings instead of leaving them intact. I don't think the military will do this as it serves no real purpose. We are not ISIS that want to show revenge, blood & gore.

Retribution should not be cosmetic.

[Oracle]

Failure to designate Masood Azhar as global terrorist against regional stability, peace: US

Azhar's UNSC listing: China hints it may block move to declare him global terrorist

Ex-SPO shot dead by terrorists in J&K's Pulwama

This is what Taliban Khan meant about de-escalation and wanting peace with India. That they will continue their official FP of state sponsored terrorism.

[Oracle]

Pakistani jets went supersonic while flying over PoK last night, Indian on alert

10 kms is agreed upon protocol, so no issues there.

Now, Feb-27's air raids by Pak. How did those birds even manage to intrude into Indian airspace? Have anyone asked this question? Have heads rolled? Someone somewhere wasn't doing his job. What about air-defenses (SAMs, not talking about anti-aircraft guns)? Why use the IAF to shoot down hostile aircraft, instead of using SAMs initially. Where were AWACs? My understanding says AWACs should have been airborne 24X7 until de-escalation. So what am I missing here?

[Oracle]

India won't escalate situation with Pakistan, but won't take Pulwama as its destiny: Sushma Swaraj

[Oracle]

China blocks move to declare Masood Azhar a global terrorist at UN

As expected.

[Double Edge]

I want to know the truth, so I am posting a counter narrative.

India’s and Pakistan’s Lies Thwarted a War—For Now

Pakistanis believe that their air force protected them, while also denying that their country continues to cultivate terrorists as tools of foreign policy. If India did not do as it claims, the gains of the latest misadventure exceed the costs, which have been extraordinarily minimal. This suggests that future use of terrorist proxies killing more Indians might happen sooner than later. Alternatively, if India did in fact do as it says, then there is no problem. Islamabad knows what New Delhi can do, and that might be an important regulator in future Pakistani calculus.

Hmm, so is that the test ?

a terrorist attack sooner than later indicates our story isn't quite right

Otherwise later

[Oracle]

Washington DC (US), Mar 13 (ANI): There have been reports in the Urdu media of some bodies being transported from Balakot to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and tribal areas of Pakistan following the anti-terror strike by India, claims an activist from Gilgit. "Pakistan military officer admits to “martyrdom” of more than 200 militants during Indian strike on Balakot. Calls the terrorists Mujahid who receive special favours/ sustenance from Allah as they fight to support PAK government [against enemies].

A US-based activist from Gilgit has claimed that after the IAF air strikes bodies of more than 200 militants were shifted to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa from Balakot. There have been reports in the Urdu media about some bodies being transported from Balakot to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and tribal areas of Pakistan after India’s anti-terror strike, claimed Senge Hasnan Sering. The activist also shared a video on his Twitter handle where a Pakistan military officer admits to "martyrdom" of more than 200 terrorists during Indian strike on Balakot and vows to support their families.

So, more than 200 Pak abduls were sent on a one way trip to hell.

[Oracle]

UNSC members may be forced to pursue other actions: diplomats on China blocking Azhar listing

China defends blocking Azhar terror listing, says it will help in finding lasting solution

China, is a police state, one that has put 2.5 million of it Uighurs in concentration camps. Still, it protects Pakistan based international terrorists. So, what is China in a regional and in an international context? China is an authoritarian state that promotes and protects terror in its neighbourhood.

I hope Modi's Wuhan romance has ended. A democracy and a dictatorial communist regime can never have common interests.

[Oracle]

Jamaat assets worth Rs 4,500 crore under lens after crackdown

Very good.

[Oracle]

Detailed look at Masood Azhar's terror attacks in the world