Border face-off: China and India each deploy 3,000 troops

[Firestorm]

No, I've got my dates correct. The simple fact that the InAF faced no opposition meant there wasn't early warning. On day 1 of the Pakistani penetration, you're supposed to be eyeing the skies 24/7.

IAF's Feb 26 attack came as a surprise. We had never done anything of the sort since the 1971 war ended. Even during Kargil, the IAF did not drop any ordnance across the LoC. They did not expect us to do that during peacetime. Plus the IAF used feints in other sectors, all along the border to keep them guessing as to which was the real point of ingress.

Neither side uses 24x7 AWACS cover all along the LoC and IB. At least they didn't back then. With the tensions now always simmering the situation may be different.

Still backs my point. Pakistani strike packages didn't reach their targets. There was zero battle management.

We were talking about US weapons. The F-16's and even the Swedish AWACS did their job well. They did achieve local numerical superiority (there were 4-6 IAF aircraft facing off against a 24 aircraft strike package at one point). The strike aircraft even dropped their ordnance but they weren't prepared to stick around to lase the targets till impact under threat of interception as the IAF rushed in more aircraft into the battle space. I'm sure their AWACS actually helped them figure that out and make a decision to withdraw. What exactly could an E-3 have done for them here?

My point is that the Paks were far better off with the F-16's than without them. They would have lost a lot more aircraft if the F-16's hadn't kept IAF interceptors busy. That was their job.

Just as the IN is much better off with the P-8's than the Tu-142's they replaced (they are even using them for overland recce over Ladakh somehow), the IAF is better off with its Chinooks than earlier etc. etc.. It doesn't matter whether you can afford the entire US support system or not, only whether they fulfill their intended purpose as the buyer understands it.

[Double Edge]

China being China means International Laws don't necessarily mean much. Now 30 years from now, or even 10 years from now, their military should be powerful enough to impose their will if they should so please. Being that China, unlike other countries, tends to look forward many years when planning. Maybe I'll live to see that although I'll be 97. My consolation is that the Col. will be older...

If they want to impose their will now is the best time to do it. Ten years from now we will be better equipped. They're getting older, we've got a lot of young.

Brahma Chellaney is the key advocate of this water situation. I find his writings to be alarmist.

His points are valid that we have no water sharing agreements with China yet. Thing is they've tossed out twenty years of border agreements recently.

So what is China's word worth anyway : )

Push comes to shove we will have to deal with them some how.

If China looked forward many years we would not be in this covid mess. DOR's said their financial reforms are anything but forward looking.

The people that look forward many years were the Brits and then Americans.

How long lived will Chinese institutions be in comparison ? Chinese standards ?

For an aspiring superpower they sure aren't very responsible.

Compare US behaviour over the last fifty years and see how stark the difference is with China.

This is not a dragon, its a duck and the sooner we see that and treat them as such the better we all will be.

[Officer of Engineers]

IAF's Feb 26 attack came as a surprise. We had never done anything of the sort since the 1971 war ended. Even during Kargil, the IAF did not drop any ordnance across the LoC. They did not expect us to do that during peacetime. Plus the IAF used feints in other sectors, all along the border to keep them guessing as to which was the real point of ingress.

No Soviet bomber had ever bombed the CONUS. Never stopped Canadians and Americans from intercepting them. We kept a No Fly Zone in Iraq for over 10 years.

Neither side uses 24x7 AWACS cover all along the LoC and IB. At least they didn't back then. With the tensions now always simmering the situation may be different.

That's the point. To expect the enemy not to react in every way possible is ... amateurish.

IWe were talking about US weapons. The F-16's and even the Swedish AWACS did their job well. They did achieve local numerical superiority (there were 4-6 IAF aircraft facing off against a 24 aircraft strike package at one point). The strike aircraft even dropped their ordnance but they weren't prepared to stick around to lase the targets till impact under threat of interception as the IAF rushed in more aircraft into the battle space. Their AWACS might have actually helped them figure that out and make a decision to withdraw. What exactly could an E-3 have done for them here?

Direct the CAP to intercept the incoming flights, determine if the Strike Package have time to deliver, and order the Strike Package to stay on target.

IMy point is that the Paks were far better off with the F-16's than without them. They would have lost a lot more aircraft if the F-16's hadn't kept IAF interceptors busy. That was their job.

If you mean the Paks would have had all their Chinese MiG-19s shot down, I agree but the entire mission was a failure. The objective was to bomb InA positions, not to tangle with Indian birds.

[Firestorm]

If they want to impose their will now is the best time to do it. Ten years from now we will be better equipped. They're getting older, we've got a lot of young.

More than equipment they are alarmed by the pace of road building all along the India-China border, not just Ladakh, but Sikkim and Arunachal as well. Granted we have decades of catching up to do in this regard, but they want to nip it in the bud. If all envisaged roads and tunnels are completed as planned, the Chinese might have to drastically rethink their force structure and deployment on the Indian border. They will no longer enjoy the infra advantage that let them thinly man the forward areas unlike the IA which had to position large number of troops there 24x7 just for defensive purposes. You can already see them changing this in Ladakh merely because of the new road to DBO.

It's not the rocks, but the plains and roads that lie beyond the rocks that they are interested in.

[Firestorm]

No Soviet bomber had ever bombed the CONUS. Never stopped Canadians and Americans from intercepting them. We kept a No Fly Zone in Iraq for over 10 years.

Even the Russians or Chinese wouldn't be able to afford to mount 24x7 CAP's covering every inch of airspace the size of the Indo-Pak border. Pakistan definitely can't, doesn't matter where they buy their aircraft from. However, that doesn't mean that their F-16's are useless.

That's the point. To expect the enemy not to react in every way possible is ... amateurish.

React to what? There have been far worse terrorist attacks than the Pulwama one in India with direct links to Pakistan eliciting zero response from India. Air-strikes as a response to a terrorist attack was an unknown paradigm in the India-Pak scenario till now.

Direct the CAP to intercept the incoming flights, determine if the Strike Package have time to deliver, and order the Strike Package to stay on target.

If you mean the Paks would have had all their Chinese MiG-19s shot down, I agree but the entire mission was a failure. The objective was to bomb InA positions, not to tangle with Indian birds.

They junked their Mig-19's a while back. Their second best aircraft are their JF-17's which had trouble dealing with 2 IAF Mirage-2000's opposing them despite outnumbering them by a decent amount. Their F-16's are their trump cards. I am not defending their tactics or saying their mission was a success, it obviously wasn't. Just saying that if you remove their American F-16's, their whole air force cannot survive for long against the IAF. They are definitely a force-multiplier. The kind they can't get anywhere else unless the Chinese decide to sell them some J-20's. Suffice to say, the IAF is not salivating at the Meteor armed Rafales because they are worried about Chinese J-11's.

[tbm3fan]

What climate change is doing is increasing flooding so we're not seeing the drying up bit.

Don't have to wait thirty years. Can see the problem right now with my state Karnataka and the neighbouring one Tamil Nadu.

The Cauvery river starts in my state and flows into theirs. We had an agreement that goes back to the British era on water sharing.

Now so long as the monsoons are good, they have been for the last five in a row things are cool.

It's when we have a weak monsoon that tension builds up. We take our share but they say we aren't releasing the agreed amount.

We say we don't have more they say we are withholding.

So the state would release more water, this then would get the locals up in arms who would agitate and the city would shut down for a day.

Things would get so bad that if you crossed state lines and the other side noticed the license plates they would harass you and vice versa.

So we took it to the supreme court and won.

The next time this agreement will be reviewed is in 2035.

You're missing the point. When glaciers melt faster than normal then yes you have flooding. However, once glaciers have melted and the weather pattern changes from renewing them then what? No glacier, no water, now conflict. You are applying what you know of today to a point in time 30-40 years from now. Dismiss at your own peril.

[tbm3fan]

If they want to impose their will now is the best time to do it. Ten years from now we will be better equipped. They're getting older, we've got a lot of young.

Brahma Chellaney is the key advocate of this water situation. I find his writings to be alarmist.

His points are valid that we have no water sharing agreements with China yet. Thing is they've tossed out twenty years of border agreements recently.

So what is China's word worth anyway : )

Push comes to shove we will have to deal with them some how.

If China looked forward many years we would not be in this covid mess. DOR's said their financial reforms are anything but forward looking.

The people that look forward many years were the Brits and then Americans.

How long lived will Chinese institutions be in comparison ? Chinese standards ?

For an aspiring superpower they sure aren't very responsible.

Compare US behaviour over the last fifty years and see how stark the difference is with China.

This is not a dragon, its a duck and the sooner we see that and treat them as such the better we all will be.

All this talk is irrelevant but in character.

[Double Edge]

More than equipment they are alarmed by the pace of road building all along the India-China border, not just Ladakh, but Sikkim and Arunachal as well. Granted we have decades of catching up to do in this regard, but they want to nip it in the bud. If all envisaged roads and tunnels are completed as planned, the Chinese might have to drastically rethink their force structure and deployment on the Indian border. They will no longer enjoy the infra advantage that let them thinly man the forward areas unlike the IA which had to position large number of troops there 24x7 just for defensive purposes. You can already see them changing this in Ladakh merely because of the new road to DBO.

How are they going to nip it in the bud ? we are determined to complete those roads

They don't get to dictate whether we build roads on our side. So if one follows their Galwan actions they will try to get observation points in other areas where we have roads that matter. If they can see those roads they can shell them.

We will do the same with their roads too.

It's not the rocks, but the plains and roads that lie beyond the rocks that they are interested in.

Don't leave us hanging, please continue..

[Double Edge]

Even if this were true, why would an ex-mil say that?

Disgruntled vets.

They are lobbying for better pensions.

To reduce PLA numbers maybe there was some sort of VRS.

Those that took it must have blown through their savings and are hard up now.

Time for China to have its own OROP.

5x bigger economy yes ? so what is the problem : D

PS:Jianli Yang isn't ex-PLA, he's a dissident. See his bio. So unless there is a new report i don't know who the ex-PLA person is making the statement. Might be something picked up on Chinese social media.

And btw NewsX is also banned in China now : D

[Oracle]

In short, don't let stupid idiotic nationalistic pride stand in the way of sound military decisions. Both sides are using kung fu for crying out loud. Good men have died over a tent. If the causalties are to be believe, then it is more than likely that it was the Indians who went on the attack and took the Chinese by surprise. You killed men over a tent. Not a machine gun post. Not a minefield. A freaking tent. There is nothing military sound about any of this.

Source? All intel (Indian/US) points to the PLA starting this brawl.

[Oracle]

Calm down. Wasn't talking about you.

I'm calm.

You said China did not know if it would see '72. We did not let this affect planning. Ensure China is out of play no matter what.

Context?

[Officer of Engineers]

Even the Russians or Chinese wouldn't be able to afford to mount 24x7 CAP's covering every inch of airspace the size of the Indo-Pak border. Pakistan definitely can't, doesn't matter where they buy their aircraft from. However, that doesn't mean that their F-16's are useless.

They don't need to. It is the pre-orgative of the attacker to choose the time and space for the attack. It is up to the defender to keep an eye for that attack.

React to what? There have been far worse terrorist attacks than the Pulwama one in India with direct links to Pakistan eliciting zero response from India. Air-strikes as a response to a terrorist attack was an unknown paradigm in the India-Pak scenario till now.

You guys were talking about chucking nukes at each other. How much more unknown can you get?

They junked their Mig-19's a while back.

I know that. I meant they can throw up as many numbers as they like. Without the right package, they're nothing more than baby seals. With the right package, even they can be a menace, ie missile and bullet magnets. But you have to direct them properly. No Pakistani pilot is stupid enough to slam his plane into an oncoming missile.

Their second best aircraft are their JF-17's which had trouble dealing with 2 IAF Mirage-2000's opposing them despite outnumbering them by a decent amount. Their F-16's are their trump cards. I am not defending their tactics or saying their mission was a success, it obviously wasn't. Just saying that if you remove their American F-16's, their whole air force cannot survive for long against the IAF. They are definitely a force-multiplier. The kind they can't get anywhere else unless the Chinese decide to sell them some J-20's. Suffice to say, the IAF is not salivating at the Meteor armed Rafales because they are worried about Chinese J-11's.

No disagreement here but the context is still the same. For the US/NATO/ANZUS/Japan/South Korea, air combat is a package deal. While the F-16s are certainly a most valuable part of that package, the Pakistanis are still missing a hell of a lot of the package.

[Officer of Engineers]

Source? All intel (Indian/US) points to the PLA starting this brawl.

The tent was the source of the tension. The Indians went over to where the Chinese were, not the Chinese who advance into the Indian side. And if the casualties are to be believed, then the Chinese were not prepared to receive the Indians.

[Oracle]

I am curious about something that maybe off the mark or not. Doesn't the Indus River, after starting in Tibet, then run through Ladakh. Isn't there already some water shortages in India's Punjab region? I have read that if things don't change climate wise then China, India, and Pakistan could all be facing severe water shortages in the entire region around 2050. Water, being a critical resource China needs much like other resources would China be looking ahead into the future? Just musing here...

What you're hinting at is correct. Desalination plants in China or whatever, water would be used as a tool for strategic gains later in the future by China as well as India w.r.t Pakistan.

So, it's an invasion route into Pakistan.

Tough route, but yes.

Easy enough. The Pakistani positions are unattainable but yet, they cannot abandon it. The Indian side indicates that they have a superiority of force. Most telling is that the statement that India will not advance if Pakistan withdrawls. Seems the entire reasoning for the Pakistani continue presence is to prevent an Indian advance. What's so important that they could not bottle up any Indian advance? Obvious answer, they could not bottle up any Indian advance. Hence, why their desperation in still manning the glacier. Stop the Indians here or the Indians will not be stopped.

Very difficult for PA to stop an armoured thrust from Indian plains onto theirs. The toughest job for the IA is to repeat the same in PoJ&K. Siachen makes it not so easy for us to invade their northern territories and cut off their supply lines as well as those of the PLA in PoJ&K. It though, will come with a heavy cost on men and money.

You're missing the point. When glaciers melt faster than normal then yes you have flooding. However, once glaciers have melted and the weather pattern changes from renewing them then what? No glacier, no water, now conflict. You are applying what you know of today to a point in time 30-40 years from now. Dismiss at your own peril.

20 years from now, there will be no glaciers or icy mountains. And the Chinese can cross over, and come at will. Himalayas will stop acting as the natural barrier, as it did during the 1971 Liberation War. If India doesn't arm-up, and build border infrastructure rapidly, we're screwed.

[Double Edge]

So they command the heights. What does that gain them? A bunch of rocks that is hard to defend, impossible to advance, easily choked at the lower points, men and material sitting them doing nothing but freezing and thawing throughout the year, things that are hard on men and machine alike.

Takes a special breed of animal to put up with this. Crazy Ladakhis, lol

They seem to be in good spirits.

They have to pledge to be off tobacco & spirits when on the glacier.