Border face-off: China and India each deploy 3,000 troops

[Oracle]

If Chinese want to redraw the map we will help them. Guess there will be no swaps after.

Time of the greatest danger is now!

This is what I was thinking. Opening of a front somewhere else by the PLA. Hopefully the NSA and the Generals have taken into account all the passes from where the PLA can mount an offense, as well as those where the enemy can para-drop SoF. Jaitley is, I don't know, not to my liking, either as the Finance Minister, even less as the DM. But this is the second time, he has repeated that this is not 1962. This statement should serve it's purpose, and India should not get caught offguard. SoFs actions are also possible during the winter, so there should be no slack in monitoring those areas. India can't afford a Kargil like situation with the Chinese.

[Oracle]

Doklam: China speaks in two tongues, ups war cry in media but agrees to retreat 100 m on ground

But, on the ground at Doklam, things seem to be different. Reports from the standoff zone at Doklam suggest that India and China are moving towards a resolution of the ongoing impasse. The two sides are reported to be discussing the repositioning of their troops.

AT THE GROUND ZERO
According to reports from Doklam, China has agreed to pull back its troops 100 metres from the standoff point. The Indian side is said to be insisting that China should move back its troops 250 metres from the standoff point at Doklam before Indian troops withdraw.

Chinese side, on the hand, has said that pulling back 100 metres is be fine and Indian soldiers should go back to their previous position. These reports indicate that both India and China are working for an honourable exit from the Doklam standoff.

At the same time, China has officially denied that it has agreed to withdraw its troops from the present position, according to a Global Times report, which quoted an anonymous official.

There are parallel reports that Chinese PLA has stationed around 300-400 troops in tents put up about a kilometre from the Doklam standoff point. India, on the other hand, is reported to have asked its Sukna-based 33 Corps - some 20 km from the site of standoff - to be in the state of full preparedness and wait for orders if reinforcement at Doklam or Doka La is required.

[Double Edge]

Jaitley is, I don't know, not to my liking, either as the Finance Minister, even less as the DM. But this is the second time, he has repeated that this is not 1962. This statement should serve it's purpose, and India should not get caught offguard. SoFs actions are also possible during the winter, so there should be no slack in monitoring those areas. India can't afford a Kargil like situation with the Chinese.

Any day better than that full timer he replaced recently. His comments have been measured and lawyer like.

[Oracle]

Any day better than that full timer he replaced recently. His comments have been measured and lawyer like.

DM is not FM. From a diplomatic POV, it's fine. But then a lawyer, or a civilian like the ex-DM is not what India needs. They mostly argue, while the substance rots on paper and becomes vintage, and defense acquisitions are hindered. DM should be an ex-mil guy, there should be another 2 principal secretaries under him, all mil pros, representating the tri services. And India needs to raise it's defense budget to atleast 2% of the GDP. It's 1.56% now, and most of it goes into paying salaries, pensions, food, transport. Whatever is left is not enough to modernize the forces, apart from the nasty bureaucratic process.

[Funtastic]

A war in the Himalayas would expose India’s soft power

By M.K. BHADRAKUMAR

"....................A war between India and China is improbable since neither side wants it. But below that threshold is a vast space where miscalculations can occur. Indians and Chinese are patriotic people, driven by nationalistic leaderships, and “territorial sovereignty” is a highly emotive issue. What’s alarming is that both governments have successfully rallied domestic opinion.

In China, perhaps, this wasn’t particularly difficult. But in India where a hundred flowers normally bloom, opinion is polarizing at an exceptional rate. It seems all Indians are rising in anger over Facebook posts supporting China’s position. But how could there be a contrarian opinion?

This holds dangers because hubris is a self-devouring monster. The plain truth is that India’s post-Cold War foreign policy calculus will be severely put to test for the first time if a conflict with China ensues. No country has backed India in its seven-week standoff with China. Indians all along fancied that they were leagues ahead of Chinese in “soft power” – yoga, Gandhi, snake charmers, etc. Apparently, that is not so.

It is particularly galling that the United States has not taken any posture favoring India. India’s post-Cold War strategic discourse is heavily laden with the blithe assumption that the US regards India as a “counterweight” to China. Meghnad Desai, a high-flying opinion maker in the English-speaking Delhi circuit, said last week:

“All things that follow now will have a lot to do with what happens in the South China Sea. The US has sent out enough signals. If there is war, it will be a US-China war, with India on the US side, in the South China Sea and in the Himalayas. This trio (India, China and the US) is a very combustible mixture right now.… Ultimately, you have to understand that India cannot stand up to China without American help and support. America cannot stand up to China without Indian help. That is the symmetry in this relationship.”

The sheer naiveté in the above passage sums up India’s misfortune. The Indians refuse to see the geopolitical realities. It doesn’t occur to them that US President Donald Trump will fight wars only if America’s interests are directly threatened. Why should he order the Pentagon to send the marines to the Himalayas or to dispatch a carrier battle group to hunt down Chinese submarines in the Indian Ocean?

The one thing emerging out of the meeting in Manila last Friday between US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is that the two top diplomats did not waste time on the South China Sea or the Indian Ocean.

Tillerson told the media that North Korea was the main topic in his discussions and whatever extra “bit of reflection on the relationship” with China that took place was devoted to the four high-level dialogues between the two countries last April at the summit at Mar-a-Lago, Florida. That meeting, he said, is “really advancing our two countries’ understandings of the nature of this relationship … and how we should strive to strengthen this relationship so that it benefits the world in terms of maintaining a secure world absent of conflict.”

Interestingly, the White House released a press release on Saturday thanking China for its cooperation in securing the passage of a resolution in the United Nations Security Council on increased sanctions against North Korea. Trump is expected to make a state visit to China in November and Wang disclosed that preparations have begun.

Indian analysts simply do not get the point that the US-China relationship is in an altogether different league. Simply put, the single most crucial template of India’s strategy against China turns out to be delusional – that the US will confront China on India’s behalf.

Equally, Indian strategists never expected that post-Soviet Russia would bounce back on to the world stage. Through the past quarter-century, successive Indian governments have pursued a policy of benign neglect of relations with Russia, which are today in a state of atrophy. On the other hand, Russia-China relations are today at their highest point in decades.

Sadly, India’s “soft power” took a lethal blow during the past three-year period of the Hindu-nationalist government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This is so not only in liberal Western opinion but also in the Muslim world. The violence against Muslims, the erosion in India’s secularist foundations, the mass upheaval in Kashmir have all received attention internationally. It is also useful to remember that the Organization of Islamic Cooperation represents 54 member countries of the United Nations.

Suffice to say, all these factors will come into play if a war ensues between India and China. India is not a match for China militarily, and in soft power too China may already have an advantage. By cocooning themselves in a fantasyland, Indians are too full of themselves in their refusal to be judged by international opinion – leave alone Chinese and its smaller South Asian neighbors’ opinions."

http://www.atimes.com/war-himalayas-...as-soft-power/

[Oracle]

There is a lot of propaganda and fake news around. MK Bhadrakumar's father was a communist, and his articles tilt in that direction too. No problem. In a secular democracy, everybody has the right to express their opinion, even communists. But when Mr. Bhadra says that US cannot stand upto China without India's help, he is BS'ing. How come a career diplomat with 29 years of service have no fucking idea about US firepower? The article is, as usual garbage written to please his commie masters sitting in Beijing.

[Oracle]

View: Dokalam crisis is a reflection of China's expansionist tendencies

By Kanwal Sibal

China is wallowing in its own mendacious propaganda on the Dokalam stand-off. Its claim about informing our local military personnel in advance about road building on its “sovereign territory” (why would they do that?) but receiving no response is deceitful. They claim goodwill as motive, contrary to China’s enduring ill-will towards India on border differences.

The Chinese ploy was to be able to tell Bhutan that India had raised no objection and forestall any Bhutanese resistance. Actually, India refused any discussion on this non-agenda item and referred it to the Bhutanese. The Bhutanese soldiers who had tried to stop Chinese road building were unceremoniously escorted back to their camp. India is reluctant to publicise the evidence as it would embarrass Bhutan.

China’s contention that India has entered its territory in Dokalam is bogus as this area has figured in the 24 rounds of China-Bhutan talks so far on border differences. For India, the plateau is Bhutanese territory claimed by China, just as, by virtue of its occupation of Tibet, China claims Indian territory. India has entered Bhutanese territory under existing bilateral security agreements.

Bhutan’s silence on the standoff since its June statement is being exploited by China to sow doubts about the depth of Bhutan’s support for India’s action. India is not falling into China’s trap by pushing Bhutan to be more vocal, as that would signal loss of confidence. India is acting in close coordination with Bhutan.

China obfuscates the Dokalam issue by suddenly finding great virtue in colonial era unequal treaties which it rejects as in the case of the McMahon Line, for instance. It now argues that the 1890 British India-China treaty on the Tibet-Sikkim border extends to Bhutan too, even though neither Sikkim nor Bhutan were a party.

China is distorting the content of Nehru’s 1959 letter to Chou En Lai which, while accepting that the Sikkim-Tibet boundary had been settled, refers to the unsettled tri-junction with Bhutan. China refers selectively to the 2006 talks between the Special Representatives (SRs) and omits mentioning the 2012 pact between SRs that the tri-junction would be settled in negotiations with third country involvement (Bhutan) and until then the status quo will be maintained.

China’s hegemonic ambitions fuelled by its economic power and growing military strength resemble those of Germany and Japan in the 30s. The People’s Liberation Army is becoming adventurist in conduct and could act rashly at the local level. India, which is taking necessary precautions on our border, will not allow the Chinese to reach the Jhamperi ridge in Bhutan by crossing the Torsa Nala, the area of the current stand-off.

China has briefed other countries on India’s violation of its “territorial sovereignty”, but has not obtained the response it expected. India seems to have done diplomatic briefings quietly, without seeking public support for its position to avoid complications.

India prefers to solve the confrontation bilaterally as in previous faceoffs, lest the entire structure of border management that exists collapses. China has done lasting damage to bilateral ties, as India will henceforth be exceedingly cautious about its intentions. China is alienating a billion plus Indians.

(The author is former foreign secretary)

[Oracle]

India-China stand-off: The truth from the Dragon's mouth, Chinese maps included.

[LongLurker]

No way to verify when those photos were taken and they are hosted at def.pk


The part i learnt is India isn't as weak as reported in the north east. China wants to weaken that advantage. The disputed area in Bhutan just abuts the currently disputed area. Paper i posted earlier makes the whole plan clear. China doesn't want to get that advantage with bullets if a pen will work. Good luck getting the Bhutanese to cooperate, in which case there is always bullying.



This just in, we'll see if other outlets pick it up

Army Moves Troops of Sukna-Based 33 Corps to India-China Border | Quint | Aug 09 2017

(Note: it already happened 20-25 days back, no idea what the buildup is right now but we will find out eventually)

Key word i see there is 'posturing'. See my earlier post about Sumdurng Chu. 20k troops a side 'posturing' for close to a year.

if its short and sharp then its capture territory and then swap after cease fire. We aren't operating under the constraints we had in 1962. Frm the war on the rocks article posted earlier



Thing is India already has the troops there , Chinese have to arrive , acclimate then we start the shindig. If there is to be any.


This





Then we will have to treat each other as adversaries until such time both sides soften up. The present agreements are worthless.



Well there are ways to counter if one looks at a couple of incidents in the south China sea

Countering Chinese coercion in martime Asia | CSIS | May 2017

Two incidents are the vietnamese Oil rig and the second Thomas Shoal come under contestation and exploitation of physical control. Read those parts. The way to do it is to accept risk of escalation. India showed that determination thirty years ago. The Chinese know it.

That is alot to read through and i'll have to do it in small chunks, but thanks. That present agreements are considered worthless is very troubling, and India evacuating a village near the dispute seems concerning.

Also I'm reading that 'youtube videos' taken by Chinese civilians show additional supplies and men being shipped through China, but cannot find them through a cursory search, but given they'd probably be in mandarin that's not surprising.

Hopefully a negotiated solution is reached.

[Double Edge]

Indian analysts simply do not get the point that the US-China relationship is in an altogether different league. Simply put, the single most crucial template of India’s strategy against China turns out to be delusional – that the US will confront China on India’s behalf.

I don't understand why he says we expect the US to confront China on India's behalf ? there is no treaty in place. This is us standing on our own here. If we need more weapons we can get them for many suppliers.

He also says nobody has said anything. Maybe that's a good thing , let this be an India China thing. Note how even the Bhutanese have been sparing and its all about them.

Sadly, India’s “soft power” took a lethal blow during the past three-year period of the Hindu-nationalist government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This is so not only in liberal Western opinion but also in the Muslim world. The violence against Muslims, the erosion in India’s secularist foundations, the mass upheaval in Kashmir have all received attention internationally. It is also useful to remember that the Organization of Islamic Cooperation represents 54 member countries of the United Nations.

Kashmir ? given the obsession with Iran recently and now Qatar even the Pals aren't getting noticed. Only the paks care about Kashmir.

Forget the soft power, this is about hard power. I suppose he thinks we have none.

Suffice to say, all these factors will come into play if a war ensues between India and China. India is not a match for China militarily, and in soft power too China may already have an advantage. By cocooning themselves in a fantasyland, Indians are too full of themselves in their refusal to be judged by international opinion – leave alone Chinese and its smaller South Asian neighbors’ opinions.

So India should do nothing and accept Chinese diktats ? We haven't broken any rules here so why should we worry about Intl. opinion. If anything this is adding anther problem for China in that area. Reinforces the perception that their other neighbours have. It only takes a few to stand up and maybe China's behaviour will be modified or keep at it until it does.

Why is it acceptable for China to have relations with whomsoever it chooses but not India.
China clearly violates agreements but the pressure is to be put on India who is trying to enforce that agreement otherwise its only a piece of paper.

Is he forgetting Malabar, the way we get back at the Chinese is to harass them in the Indian Ocean. Assuming there is no solution on the border. They are expecting this that is why they are frantically trying to set up bases all over the place. Not to contain us but to defend themselves by whatever means possible. Geography still favours us so we will have an edge, all remains how we apply that edge.

[Double Edge]

That is alot to read through and i'll have to do it in small chunks, but thanks. That present agreements are considered worthless is very troubling, and India evacuating a village near the dispute seems concerning.

Maybe a better word is incomplete. The technical work has been completed already according to Menon but the Chinese have stalled at the political level. Maybe their demands aren't feasible. We've had over ten years of incursions here and there on both sides. There doesn't seem to be the required willingness to conclude them as yet if at all.

Also I'm reading that 'youtube videos' taken by Chinese civilians show additional supplies and men being shipped through China, but cannot find them through a cursory search, but given they'd probably be in mandarin that's not surprising.

Hopefully a negotiated solution is reached.

we'll see

[Oracle]

Longlurker,

India doesn't want a war with China. If you read reports from the Indian press, there have been no belligerent statements from the GoI. They are taking a very nuanced and calculated approach to solve the issue diplomatically. That however doesn't mean India will throw away it's sovereignty and bow down to China. It did not happen in the past, it won't happen now, it won't happen ever.

[Oracle]

India, China continue to militarily reinforce positions but no evacuation of border villages yet

Nobody really knows what's happening.

[Oracle]

China Bares Its Teeth, But Meets Unexpected Resistance Across Asia - Forbes

India, China Army Officers Likely to Meet Today Amid Troop Build-up

[Oracle]

I like her. I might as well surrender. Trumph sure knows what works. ;-)