The battle of Brexit!

[tankie]

Please stop that nonsense right now, it's disgusting and unbecoming of a grown adult. Thank you.

I note you are following this thread and now have your attention as planned .Humour over my reply to kato is not your strongpoint is it , gadzooks A grown adult would not accuse someone of mysogony or anti semitism without proof before throwing about accusations and after doing so in public then invite members to write to you in private for your reasons , not in open forum hey mr mod !!!! . Its disgusting and unbecoming of a "grown adult " Thanks for your appology , NOT . Green pen ready is it , You are a very biassed unfair person mr , is it just me or all the brits you hate ? I take note that when kato the kraut who hates the fact we kick their arses everytime they want it , hes busy slagging off the greatest nation ever as little englanders and having his digs ad nauseum , and bigmouth in ozz oops sooooo sorry my appols i mean bigfella your green pen is gathering dust eh ! Fare !!!! Hurumph hurumph with a good ol English stiff upper lip

[kato]

The EU negotiated with the US (under Obama) for 3 years in order to obtain a trade deal. The same result was achieved ..No deal!

Funny that you mention that. The trade deal negotiations between the EU and the US were cancelled by the US government, hence laying any fault for "no deal" on their side. Your conclusion as to another negotiation is therefore perhaps the opposite of what you intended.

[Freyr]

Funny that you mention that. The trade deal negotiations between the EU and the US were cancelled by the US government, hence laying any fault for "no deal" on their side. Your conclusion as to another negotiation is therefore perhaps the opposite of what you intended.

Not really, You can't negotiate with people who don't understand the concept. Which clearly the US found out and the UK just did to. Which is why the UK will leave and trade on WTO rules in October.
The EU has failed to secure unfettered access to a market that absorbs €400bn of EU exports each year and which could be cut in half by a no-deal Brexit - according to a study by the IW Institute in Cologne. Europe’s supply chains are left dangling.

[kato]

according to a study by the IW Institute in Cologne.

Sure, last year. And their conclusion in exactly that study already was that "The UK is currently the third most important trade partner for local business. This will change dramatically in the foreseeable future."

Press Release, May 24th 2019, from IW:

For German business times after a No Deal Brexit will be more turbulent, however the resulting damage would be less grave than for the UK. Many German companies already have their Brexit emergency plans readied. Additionally German exporters are resourceful in finding new markets - there is no reason for any horror scenario. A study by IWH predicts a loss of 100,000 jobs in case of a hard Brexit. This will surely be hard on those affected. However this only represents 0.25 percent of 45 million employed in Germany. During last year the number of employed in Germany rose by 1.3% - German business therefore does not have to fear a hard Brexit.

And no, that's not available in English.

What one might guess from the above excerpt though - language-wise - is that IW isn't particularly on the common man's side of things either way. And yes, the above is a direct translation, and that one sentence in there pretty much says it all. They're affiliated with a pretty influential pro-business lobby organization after all (INSM), one that even centrist media calls "the loudspeaker of the Kapital".

[Freyr]

Sure, last year. And their conclusion in exactly that study already was that "The UK is currently the third most important trade partner for local business. This will change dramatically in the foreseeable future."

Press Release, May 24th 2019, from IW:

And no, that's not available in English.

What one might guess from the above excerpt though - language-wise - is that IW isn't particularly on the common man's side of things either way. And yes, the above is a direct translation, and that one sentence in there pretty much says it all. They're affiliated with a pretty influential pro-business lobby organization after all (INSM), one that even centrist media calls "the loudspeaker of the Kapital".

Ok, So please help me here... how is that rational? Because from a ' common man ' point of view its insane. For the simple reason the EU are not going to replace the UK with anybody anytime soon. The more the EU digs its heels in the more the British know they need to get out. Constantly banging on a bout the out of date guiding principles when the world moved on is completely inflexible and showing a total inability to adapt.

[kato]

Constantly banging on a bout the out of date guiding principles when the world moved on is completely inflexible and showing a total inability to adapt.

Except the world hasn't moved on. I mean, look at who cancelled TTIP. And whether that person has been able to negotiate any trade deals at all since then.

The more the EU digs its heels in the more the British know they need to get out.

The UK decided to get out when the British government notified the EU of its intention to leave. Let's not forget: Any wavering and back and forth since then is entirely on the British side.

There is no "digging the heels". There's an insistence on "the deal we negotiated or no deal". Simple choice. Either take the deal or move on into economic oblivion. And i don't mean the EU in that regard.

[Freyr]

Except the world hasn't moved on. I mean, look at who cancelled TTIP. And whether that person has been able to negotiate any trade deals at all since then.


The UK decided to get out when the British government notified the EU of its intention to leave. Let's not forget: Any wavering and back and forth since then is entirely on the British side.

There is no "digging the heels". There's an insistence on "the deal we negotiated or no deal". Simple choice. Either take the deal or move on into economic oblivion. And i don't mean the EU in that regard.

Now I understand ..Thank you! they clearly want the UK out and want to destroy any form of trade ...and YES the world has moved on ..just not certain idiots!

[TopHatter]

I note you are following this thread and now have your attention as planned .Humour over my reply to kato is not your strongpoint is it , gadzooks A grown adult would not accuse someone of mysogony or anti semitism without proof before throwing about accusations and after doing so in public then invite members to write to you in private for your reasons , not in open forum hey mr mod !!!! . Its disgusting and unbecoming of a "grown adult " Thanks for your appology , NOT . Green pen ready is it , You are a very biassed unfair person mr , is it just me or all the brits you hate ? I take note that when kato the kraut who hates the fact we kick their arses everytime they want it , hes busy slagging off the greatest nation ever as little englanders and having his digs ad nauseum , and bigmouth in ozz oops sooooo sorry my appols i mean bigfella your green pen is gathering dust eh ! Fare !!!! Hurumph hurumph with a good ol English stiff upper lip

Normally, per Forum Guidelines, I wouldn't be doing this in a public thread, but apparently tankie is under the impression that taking moderating discussion offline to PM's, rather than continue to pollute the thread, as disgusting and unbecoming of a grown adult...so, here we are.

There's so much lunacy going on here, it's difficult to know where to begin, so we'll just take it from the top.

You freely and proudly admit that you baited a Moderator by planting as much Nazi terminology as you could think of at a German's poster's feet...but then attempt to dismiss as "humour".

You defend your misogynistic and anti-Semitic comments & accusations by clutching at your pearls and demanding proof...as if your own words weren't proof enough...

You inquire if I hate all Brits, even though one could comb through 16,000+ of my WAB posts and find nothing but admiration and affection for the United Kingdom and the British people...

You then vomit out all manner insults to a few more members, just for good measure....

You don't seem to know or care that you've violated half a dozen Forum Guidelines in a single post...because your martyrdom plan actually depends on it, doesn't it. Sorry, but I've seen this little act before, far too many times to count.

And you ask if I hate you? No tankie, I don't hate you. But you might find yourself more welcome at InfoWars or Stormfront. So I'm going to ask you to leave the World Affairs Board. Thank you for your service here.



Folks, I'm going to put my recap my green pen ask that we get this discussion back on track. As I've always said, if you have a questions or issues with what just happened, please PM me or Astralis, per the Forum Guidelines.

[Double Edge]

Now I understand ..Thank you! they clearly want the UK out and want to destroy any form of trade ...and YES the world has moved on ..just not certain idiots!

So the only question remaining then is who blinks first, UK or EU, come October ?

[kato]

So the only question remaining then is who blinks first, UK or EU, come October ?

Only 19% of Germans think that the UK will leave on October 31st; 35% think that they'll stall it to a later date (again), and about 30% think Brexit will not take place at all.

Now I understand ..Thank you! they clearly want the UK out

In surveys of the EU population at large (polling 12,000 people in 28 countries including the UK for representative numbers):

• 27% of Europeans think that Brexit will have negative repercussions economically for the EU
• 61% of Europeans think that Brexit will have no economic repercussions either way for the EU
• 12% of Europeans think that Brexit will have positive repercussions economically for the EU

Meanwhile:

• 44% of Europeans think that Brexit will have negative repercussions economically for the UK
• 31% of Europeans think that Brexit will have no economic repercussions either way for the UK
• 25% of Europeans think that Brexit will have positive repercussions economically for the UK

The last of these points is predominantly carried by right-wing extremists (e.g. 59% of Le Pen supporters or 52% of Salvini supporters).

And that survey was late last year before the UK came begging for an extension.

[Double Edge]

Only 19% of Germans think that the UK will leave on October 31st; 35% think that they'll stall it to a later date (again), and about 30% think Brexit will not take place at all.

Hmm, so 80% of Germans, with varying levels of confidence think UK will not leave.

If 19% think UK will leave it means 81% think they will not leave

Take way the middle and it comes to 46%

And we are left with 30% that more confidently say will not leave

The part that is tricky to figure out is why leadership in the UK, this means May did not try to unite the country. You could say it was a failure of leadership but the cynical take is they didn't see the need to.

Meaning what you said earlier, its a bluff by UK to get concessions from the EU and that bluff is being called.

Two years is a ridiculously short time to work out an FTA with the EU. Let alone a good deal. Well, why does it have to be good. A bad deal for the UK is a bad deal for the EU as well.

And so we're back to who blinks first : )

The sad part in this saga is those that simply wanted out, no more, no less are going to get the run around.

This story isn't going to end in Oct, it likely will drag out longer.

[kato]

The part that is tricky to figure out is why leadership in the UK, this means May did not try to unite the country. You could say it was a failure of leadership but the cynical take is they didn't see the need to.

May tried the Merkel approach in my opinion.

The Merkel approach to governing is letting underlings fight out in favour of their opinions while stalling enigmatically, then at the right point picking that one among the opinions crystalized that is likely to have the widest support base. If it looks like it's going to escalate though you pick an opinion with a decisive statement, even if it's unpopular and will lose you votes - and then stick with it throughout. That then kinda blew up for May, mostly because she's always tried to gloss over it with hollow phrases in attempts to appeal to particular groups.

[snapper]

The full hypocrisy and dangers involved in the 'Leave' campaign - and the lengths they propose to go to achieve a disaster for the UK - are now becoming apparent.

I am pretty certain the whole 'Leave' campaign and it's leading spokesmen and Ladies argued during the campaign that a deal (a la Norway, Switzerland or Canada) regarding future trade between the UK and the Continent would be "the easiest deal in history to make". I recall considering this notion before the referendum and thought it dubious myself as the EU is a self interested organisation in it's own right and letting the UK 'get away' lightly with Brexit would encourage others to further erode the central jurisdiction which they rightly or wrongly seek to uphold. David Davis (the first Brexit Minister) proclaimed he would be conducting talks with German car manufactures without considering that they have no authority to negotiate for the EU. So the 'easiest deal in history' argument was it turned out incorrect.

Having however wrongly argued that the UK would be able to make 'easiest deal in history' the 'Brexiteers' now say that when they meant the UK would be able to work out the 'easiest deal in history' with the EU what they actually meant was that the UK should leave with no deal and that the British people who believed their first mistaken argument all understood they actually meant the 'easiest deal in history' really meant 'no deal'. It's like the pigs in Animal Farm changing the laws of the revolution. Some of them even argue that the UK will get a better deal after it has left with no deal... I am not sure how that can make sense to anyone but unashamed misdirection is now the name of the game it seems. Breath taking hypocrisy and misdirection for which should be some legal remedy.

Mrs May having resigned a leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party there are a host of would be successors, the favourite being the incompetent self publicist Boris Johnson. Another contender is the second Brexit Minister (after Mr Davis discovered the German car manufactures could not negotiate with him and went off in a huff claiming the EU was playing against the rules) Dominic Raab. Before I explain the Honourable Members ingenious plan let me recall another of the Brexit campaigners main arguments was that; leaving the EU would restore sole sovereignty to the British people and to Parliament. To this they added wildly extravagant claims of how many EU laws directly effected British people and businesses etc. So restoring the sovereignty of Parliament was said to a great and virtuous result of leaving the EU. The current British Parliament being unable to pass any sort of agreement on Brexit may perhaps cause some to question the value of this virtuous sovereignty the Brexiteers spoke of. So the excuse is that the majority of MPs are 'remoaners'. Mr Raab though has an ingenious solution to get around this troublesome Parliamentary democracy problem: If elected as Tory leader (and ergo PM) by the few thousand remaining Conservative Party members he proposes to plans to use Royal prerogative (exercisable by the PM with the Queens consent) to prorogue Parliament. This means the session of Parliament would end, the MPs would all go home and no business would be done until October when the EU's extension of the Brexit timetable runs out. Thus the UK would leave the EU with 'no deal' by default. Of course the normal and democratic process for removing such an impasse would be call an election and argue your case to the country believing that a new Parliament would succeed where the current has failed to reach agreement. Not a bit of for the 'Honourable' Mr Raab(id) as of course the Tories would not fare well so he will dispense with asking the people in order to do 'peoples will' that they did not vote for in the referendum - to get the 'no deal' and 'dispense with Parliamentary sovereignty when Parliament will not agree with no deal'.

So here we see the second such blatant disregard for all that 'Leave' campaign urged the British people would be in their interests. When they said 'easiest deal in history' they meant 'no deal', when they said 'restoring the sovereignty of Parliament' they meant to add a caveat of 'except when Parliament won't agree to no deal' and guess what? That is what 51% for Brexit actually (of the 72% of the eligible voters to vote in the referendum) understood and meant.

This Member can only described as 'Honourable' in sarcastic terms. The whole hypocrisy is sickening and what is worse is that if ploy is used by whoever is elected as the next Conservative leader it will drag the Queen into it as she my give her consent to the use of the royal prerogative to essentially shut down Parliament until the deadline for a Brexit deal is passed. The English Civil War started for a more minor reason - over ship tax to pay for the Navy and honestly any PM who attempts such a misguided and anti democratic ploy to having lied to the British people so much deserves to end as did Charles l with his head on the block.

[kato]

I am pretty certain the whole 'Leave' campaign and it's leading spokesmen and Ladies argued during the campaign that a deal (a la Norway, Switzerland or Canada) regarding future trade between the UK and the Continent would be "the easiest deal in history to make". I recall considering this notion before the referendum and thought it dubious myself as the EU is a self interested organisation in it's own right and letting the UK 'get away' lightly with Brexit would encourage others to further erode the central jurisdiction which they rightly or wrongly seek to uphold. David Davis (the first Brexit Minister) proclaimed he would be conducting talks with German car manufactures without considering that they have no authority to negotiate for the EU. So the 'easiest deal in history' argument was it turned out incorrect.

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...ion-for-the-uk

Voting to leave the EU would create years of uncertainty and potential economic disruption. This would reduce investment and cost jobs.[24]

The government judges it could result in 10 years or more of uncertainty as the UK unpicks our relationship with the EU and renegotiates new arrangements with the EU and over 50 other countries around the world.[25]

Some argue that we could strike a good deal quickly with the EU because they want to keep access to our market.

But the government’s judgement is that it would be much harder than that – less than 8% of EU exports come to the UK while 44% of UK exports go to the EU.[26]

No other country has managed to secure significant access to the single market, without having to:

follow EU rules over which they have no real say
pay into the EU
accept EU citizens living and working in their country [27]’[28]

A more limited trade deal with the EU would give the UK less access to the single market than we have now – including for services, which make up almost 80% of the UK economy.[29] For example, Canada’s deal with the EU will give limited access for services,[30] it has so far been 7 years in the making and is still not in force. 31

"Published 6 April 2016"


And for the Leavers side:
https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/

The last thing most EU leaders wanted, once the shock had worn off, was a protracted argument with the United Kingdom which, on the day it left, became their single biggest market. Terms were agreed easily enough. Britain withdrew from the EU’s political structures and institutions, but kept its tariff-free arrangements in place.

Note: "BY Daniel Hannan / 21 June 2016"
As in one of the founders of Vote Leave. Or as The Guardian termed it "the man who brought you Brexit".

[Freyr]

Only 19% of Germans think that the UK will leave on October 31st; 35% think that they'll stall it to a later date (again), and about 30% think Brexit will not take place at all.

Britain wants to trade with Germany and vice versa. But sticking your head in the sand and pretending the day won't arrive is complacent

61% of Europeans think that Brexit will have no economic repercussions either way for the EU

Strikes me that the 61% of Europeans in this survey are as ignorant as the British were before the referendum. Britain's reliance on EU trade has decreased considerably in recent years and will continue to do so, now at 44% of exports (2017) 53% of UK imports are from the EU.