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US troops arriving in Liberia to help contain Ebola
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
As I understand it. Ebola is one mutation away from killing 90% of human population. The more humans the virus is exposed to, the closer it gets to that one mutation.
It is therefore in everyone's interest to drive that exposure down as much as possible.
You have been lied to. Other than baseless speculation what do you have?
It might also be one mutation away from becoming harmless. Mutations are nearly always bad for the mutant.
It might also be one mutation away from becoming harmless. Mutations are nearly always bad for the mutant.
Mutations that does not increase the spieces die off. Mutations that expand a spieces feeding ground spreads. Guess which one will give ebola more feeding ground?
It might also be one mutation away from becoming harmless. Mutations are nearly always bad for the mutant.
You gravely misunderstand even the most basic fundamentals of high school biology. Bacterium and viruses undergo multiple generations of reproduction scores of times faster than any other organism in the known universe. There are no mutations that are nearly "good" or "bad" for them, they occur randomly and without clear purpose, ultimately dictated by the genetic drift and environmental conditions surrounding each individual generation. Epidemics such as the one ongoing in West Africa serve to accelerate this process as an abundant source of hosts allow the virus to replicate at substantially higher rates. These conditions provide the proverbial breeding grounds for Ebola to potentially mutate into an aerosol-capable strain. This is the stuff that keep every public health and medical professional waking up in a cold sweat.
If saving economic face is what you're worried about, you need only to ponder the exponential burden of quarantining and treating hundreds if not thousands of potential victims on American soil if we fail the genetic dice roll. And yes, we have almost lost that dice roll before, quite close to home in fact: 25 years ago, a different Ebola outbreak - in USA
There is no exaggeration or sensationalism to be had here. The containment and eradication of such a threat demands no less than the deployment of our best men and machines.
One of these days I need to fly down to the land of Kangaroos and Koalas and find out for myself.
Canberra has the best war museum ive ever been to. Not sure I would want to live there though.
Originally posted by GVChamp
College students are very, very, very dumb. But that's what you get when the government subsidizes children to sit in the middle of a corn field to drink alcohol and fuck.
This is without the benefit of increased transmissivity. Imagine the fear and panic this will cause in West Africa, and the subsequent refugee crisis spreading across region and abroad. Do you still think it will still be containable then?
I'm contending that there isn't much point us here getting worked up about this at the moment, especially since Nigeria appears to have stopped the disease in its tracks. I'm happy for the WHO, CDC & anyone else who cares to actually do something about it to go right ahead & do it. We aren't them. We don't need to get all excited......
Without additional interventions or changes in community behavior, CDC estimates that by January 20, 2015, there will be a total of approximately 550,000 Ebola cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone or 1.4 million if corrections for underreporting are made.
Assumptions piled on assumptions. January 2015 is a few months away. I'm betting we don't even hit the low figure by then. Care to wager? Put a figure on it. I've made the same offer to numerous people predicting all manner of things about this and on one has taken me up on it yet. Pity, I could use the pocket money.
I have no issue with the CDC shouting from the rooftops that something needs to be done and I think the world should pitch in and stop the spread. None of that justifies panic or passing off 'worst case' as even close to 'likely'
Bottom line: this is bad and unpleasant if you live in one of the shit holes where it is happening (my best mate adopted two kids from one of them, so I know wherof I speak). We should do all that we can to stop the spread & develop ways to combat the disease. That is it. The world isn't going to end. This isn't the first chapter in a Stephen King book. It is just another bad thing happening in a place most people still can't find on a map top people they wouldn't care about if this was a war or famine or a different disease. I suspect that millions more people will die in the next 12 months in Africa from things that are even cheaper to prevent and we won't even pretend to care. I'm happy that we care about this, but I'll start worrying when I have a reason.
I'll let my comments stand and your arrogance speak for itself.
So, we've passed January 20 & where are we at?
The largest outbreak of Ebola in human history has infected 21,724 people and killed 8,641 - largely in just three countries, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea.
All are now showing falls in weekly cases:
Cases in Liberia stand at eight-per-week down from a peak of 509
Cases in Guinea stand at 20 per week down from a peak of 292
Cases in Sierra Leone stand at 117-per-week down from a peak of 748
There are now some days in Liberia where no cases are reported at all.
Looks like the epidemic has been contained, the rate of infection is falling and the world will not come to an end by easter. Not only did we not hit the 1.4 million 'end of the world' scare figure, we haven't even hit 5% of the low 'end of the world' scare figure. Who woulda thunk it.
This is wonderful news for those African nations who have suffered the most. A huge congratulations to all those who risked their lives to stop this. An especial pat on the back for the thousands of Africans who did most of the hard work & will be forgotten when this becomes a 'white people turned up & saved the world' story. Most of them worked under unimaginable conditions. In an ideal world this would be treated as a warning and would result in an investment in health infrastructure in vulnerable parts of Africa. Sadly I suspect a bunch more white folks in white nations would have to have died for that to happen. Oh well, a win is still a win.
It didn't hit the high figures because people recognized the incredible danger the epidemic posed and did the hard work necessary to contain it. In fact, some of the affected countries took drastic measures on the level necessary to contain a "we're all gonna die" problem. Had they not done that, they may in fact be in the midst of dying en mass.
The alarm a few months ago is exactly what allowed the exponential growth of new infections to be stopped. Had the WHO not taken an attitude that you characterized as hysteria and NOT highlighted the panic worthy dangers the epidemic posed, we may well be seeing uncontainable numbers today.
There are some who might gloat at their equanimity in the midst of a storm, the truly wise build dams and thank their lucky stars that the flood waters missed the town... this time. ;)
Co-operation on an international level, potentially a great success story. The content of WAB deals almost exclusively in the failings of man, stories like this need to be exemplified with greater regularity to illustrate what can be achieved between nations in a globalised world, a model to strive for.
It didn't hit the high figures because people recognized the incredible danger the epidemic posed and did the hard work necessary to contain it. In fact, some of the affected countries took drastic measures on the level necessary to contain a "we're all gonna die" problem. Had they not done that, they may in fact be in the midst of dying en mass.
The alarm a few months ago is exactly what allowed the exponential growth of new infections to be stopped. Had the WHO not taken an attitude that you characterized as hysteria and NOT highlighted the panic worthy dangers the epidemic posed, we may well be seeing uncontainable numbers today.
There are some who might gloat at their equanimity in the midst of a storm, the truly wise build dams and thank their lucky stars that the flood waters missed the town... this time. ;)
No, the truly wise don't treat the most probable outcome by a fairly wide margin as 'lucky'. They also don't get sucked in and then get all pouty when someone talks sense to them.
As I pointed out at the time, I had no issue with the WHO scaring people to get the job done. I did have a problem with people who had no involvement passing off the scare campaign as worth taking seriously. It wasn't. That was clear.
p.s. I wasn't expecting you to admit that you got it wrong.
Co-operation on an international level, potentially a great success story. The content of WAB deals almost exclusively in the failings of man, stories like this need to be exemplified with greater regularity to illustrate what can be achieved between nations in a globalised world, a model to strive for.
Yes, in spite of a badly botched start this has ended up being a success story of sorts. More people died than should have, but it could also have been worse. I was particularly impressed with the way nations that we would normally dismiss as 'hopeless' managed to contain small outbreaks before they became big ones. A useful reminder that lessons have already been learned & put into practice. No doubt there will be more to implement from this epidemic. The WHO will be having a bit of a houseclean I suspect.
The really good news is that ebola vaccines have finally been developed, and are undergoing large scale trials. A successful vaccine campaign in the affected areas should protect the whole world.
The really good news is that ebola vaccines have finally been developed, and are undergoing large scale trials. A successful vaccine campaign in the affected areas should protect the whole world.
Yes, the vaccine trials are a real bright spot in this whole thing. Hopefully they will be ready to stop the next outbreak in its tracks.
Yes, the vaccine trials are a real bright spot in this whole thing. Hopefully they will be ready to stop the next outbreak in its tracks.
Not sure how the vaccine trials are progressing, but good news turns out to be bad news for treatment trials. Still ongoing, but number of potential subjects dropping precipitously.
What I find strange is that nobody is talking about Ebola anymore in the media and the number of deaths surpassed 10,000 in the last month.
Probably they are doing so because at the end of last year they were talking that there was going to be 1,5 million dead by today and it has not come to anywhere near this projection.
But even so it is strange how the interest for the subject died so quickly.
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