Russia Bans Food Imports

[Jimbo]

So perusing the various news sites and found this:

Russia bans all U.S. food, EU fruit and vegetables in sanctions response; NATO fears invasion

My question is whether my assumption that while this will hurt American farmers, I would think that the subsequent jump of food prices in Russia would hurt Russia more than it would hurt the U.S. correct? I am no expert in this part of the economy and the full nature of the agriculture trade between the U.S. and Russia. so I definitely appreciate any replies to further enlighten me on this.

[Andrey Egorov]

American farmers will be barely hurt, local market is big enough and overall export volume not that big. Some polish and greek guys will have to look for new market for at least a year.

Things are not so well on this side of a curtain.
Prices on pork already raised by 20%, more to come.
Russian agriculture is heavily seasoned. We import even apples of some breeds that freeze in our winters and 70% of overall fruit consumption comes from import, most of it in winter and spring. Fruit conservation comes to mind. The problem is even southern Russia regions being too cold for certain fruits and simply not large enough to produce all fruits needed. That would be problem with capital P. Olive oil lands here also.
Some high-end beef and milk products can be just ignored but prices will rise on all that even more nevertheless.
Vegetables again become seasoned stuff and it will took a winter without them to relearn conservation techniques, run new facilities and proper production volume, the demand will be enormous and prices will hit the ceiling. After this first winter we can no longer need imported stuff if we learn from that.

Some fruits and vegetables can be imported from south-east Asia, though I'm concerned about the quality. Brazilian and Argentinian meat will do well. All new trade ties will take time to build.
If we won't break to next summer - and the winter will be tough - we may no longer need European food at all. A good Australian steak never hurt though.

[Goatboy]

American farmers will be barely hurt, local market is big enough and overall export volume not that big. Some polish and greek guys will have to look for new market for at least a year.

Things are not so well on this side of a curtain.
Prices on pork already raised by 20%, more to come.
Russian agriculture is heavily seasoned. We import even apples of some breeds that freeze in our winters and 70% of overall fruit consumption comes from import, most of it in winter and spring. Fruit conservation comes to mind. The problem is even southern Russia regions being too cold for certain fruits and simply not large enough to produce all fruits needed. That would be problem with capital P. Olive oil lands here also.
Some high-end beef and milk products can be just ignored but prices will rise on all that even more nevertheless.
Vegetables again become seasoned stuff and it will took a winter without them to relearn conservation techniques, run new facilities and proper production volume, the demand will be enormous and prices will hit the ceiling. After this first winter we can no longer need imported stuff if we learn from that.

Some fruits and vegetables can be imported from south-east Asia, though I'm concerned about the quality. Brazilian and Argentinian meat will do well. All new trade ties will take time to build.
If we won't break to next summer - and the winter will be tough - we may no longer need European food at all. A good Australian steak never hurt though.

When I was a kid, I always had this image of Russia being completely covered in berries when it was warm. Blackberries, strawberries, raspberries. Just go waltz around in the forest and come back with buckets :)

[Andrey Egorov]

When I was a kid, I always had this image of Russia being completely covered in berries when it was warm. Blackberries, strawberries, raspberries. Just go waltz around in the forest and come back with buckets :)

Well, it's a bit less idyllic here in summer. Some forests are swamped, others too dark for anything but spruce to grow. There are berries, just not everywhere. And you can't feed a nation with berries really.

[Jimbo]

American farmers will be barely hurt, local market is big enough and overall export volume not that big. Some polish and greek guys will have to look for new market for at least a year.

Things are not so well on this side of a curtain.
Prices on pork already raised by 20%, more to come.
Russian agriculture is heavily seasoned. We import even apples of some breeds that freeze in our winters and 70% of overall fruit consumption comes from import, most of it in winter and spring. Fruit conservation comes to mind. The problem is even southern Russia regions being too cold for certain fruits and simply not large enough to produce all fruits needed. That would be problem with capital P. Olive oil lands here also.
Some high-end beef and milk products can be just ignored but prices will rise on all that even more nevertheless.
Vegetables again become seasoned stuff and it will took a winter without them to relearn conservation techniques, run new facilities and proper production volume, the demand will be enormous and prices will hit the ceiling. After this first winter we can no longer need imported stuff if we learn from that.

Some fruits and vegetables can be imported from south-east Asia, though I'm concerned about the quality. Brazilian and Argentinian meat will do well. All new trade ties will take time to build.
If we won't break to next summer - and the winter will be tough - we may no longer need European food at all. A good Australian steak never hurt though.

Thanks Andrey for a Russian perspective. What about wheat, would there be any major repercussions with Russia not importing any American wheat products?

[Andrey Egorov]

Thanks Andrey for a Russian perspective. What about wheat, would there be any major repercussions with Russia not importing any American wheat products?

There are some, but very limited range of not very popular products like sandwich bread. Sheer wheat may be or may be not imported, I'm not aware of whole situation. My vision is bread producing independance become major goal after USSR break up.

[kato]

Prices on pork already raised by 20%, more to come.

Those 20% roughly match the share Russia was importing from the EU before February. Since February, Russia used hidden sanctions to no longer import pork from the EU, importing mostly from Canada and Brazil instead. Since Canada is affected now, you just gotta wait for it to completely shift to South America like it already did for beef...

[gf0012-aust]

the russians had already banned norwegian fish a few months back

its part of their intimidation message re the proposed skandinavian block and a broadside at norway over artic boundary disputes (ie oil and gas shelf issues)

[TopHatter]

Thanks for the Russian perspective Andrey.

I think it's asinine for Putin to basically hurt his own people simply to retaliate against the West. I mean, food? Really?

[DonBelt]

Will his own people know that it is a result of Putin's sanctions or will they think the food shortages are a result of the West's sanctions? If he has a tight rein on the press in his country and can keep the spin that it is the West that is starving them, maybe he will only gain support. Do the Russian people hold him responsible for the high prices and shortages? That's the question here I think.

[zraver]

Will his own people know that it is a result of Putin's sanctions or will they think the food shortages are a result of the West's sanctions? If he has a tight rein on the press in his country and can keep the spin that it is the West that is starving them, maybe he will only gain support. Do the Russian people hold him responsible for the high prices and shortages? That's the question here I think.

Well, he's lamented the passing of the USSR... at least he got the queing in food lines back...

[Andrey Egorov]

Will his own people know that it is a result of Putin's sanctions or will they think the food shortages are a result of the West's sanctions? If he has a tight rein on the press in his country and can keep the spin that it is the West that is starving them, maybe he will only gain support. Do the Russian people hold him responsible for the high prices and shortages? That's the question here I think.

There are several factors:

• Ukrainian constant strife is considered a sign of defunct political system
• Ukrainians are being divided in public opinion to Russians in the East and Galicians in the West (or just Poles for less educated ones)
• Black sea coast and lands east of Dnepr are believed to be Russian on historical and ethnical reasons
• Russia has long history of opposing Europe trying to incorporate in but being not wanted.

All in all it means Ukraine is our playground and no one should ever blame us for anything we want to do there.
Thus "we're surrounded by enemies" attitude is pretty natural reaction and is just slightly boosted by TV.

BTW, NATO and EU aren't regarded as independent structures and are seen just as USA's extensions. So it's America and its minions against us. Aside China, America and ourselves, no one else is viewed as political subject.

[Sitting Bull]

It really is a shame to see all the hard work done by U.S. and Soviet diplomats in the '80s to normalize relations all going in the dumpster of history in the span of a few short months. I don't think that sanctions are going to work against Russia; if Ukraine forces try to turn Donetsk into the Gaza strip Russia will act.

Putin's sanctions will have limited impact, just more one-upmanship and arrogance to match the West's one-upmanship and arrogance.

[snapper]

Putin's sanctions will have limited impact, just more one-upmanship and arrogance to match the West's one-upmanship and arrogance.

Which parts of another country have been annexed and by whom? Who is supplying arms and soldiers to cause a war in another country? Western sanctions are based on breaches of international law - Russian sanctions are only in response to the problem they have caused and mostly hurt their own their people. Rises in food prices means inflation so interest rates have to rise... The capital reserves can be used short term but one the downward curve starts $400bn and not being to able to borrow on the markets won't get you 6 months.

[Sitting Bull]

snapper: "Western sanctions are based on breaches of international law "

Since when has the West given a fig for international law? Panama in '89? Certainly not during the Iraq war, detaining people without trial, and torturing captives? The component nations of the West don't even respect international law when it comes to each other (i.e. Google, the NSA etc). I don't remember sanctions being slapped on America in response to their numerous violations, the odd tongue-lashing in the media but nothing as hostile as sanctions. Nobody left the G8 in a hissy fit.
The powers need to stop fighting their battles through the media, get back to the table, and outline their definitive spheres of influence so that we might avert the chances of an accident in one of these disputed areas turning into a global war.