Was it possible to only help UK and France but not USSR? Let the Nazis and commies annihilate each other.
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What if we didn't ally with USSR in 1941?
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I think the problem with not helping the USSR is that Germany had just steamrolled through most of Europe, and the Red Army had just undergone massive purges and reorganizations. From the standpoint of the United States, the possibility that German forces would quickly bulldoze their way to Moscow and force a surrender had to be a serious consideration.
When Napoleon took Moscow he expected a delegation and an offer of capitulation from the Tzar. Instead he found a largely deserted city that had been stripped of food and supplies, while saboteurs burned 4/5th of the city the night he arrived. In hindsight, Hitler would probably have gotten a very similar reception if the Germans had taken Moscow. In 1941 however, all people saw was a weak looking USSR still reeling from revolutions, a Red Army in disarray from purges, and a German juggernaut that had crushed most of Europe.
I think that the primary reason the landings at Normandy even became a possibility is because the majority of German forces were tied up fighting the USSR. In hindsight we know that Stalin was willing to burn his own cities and countryside while sending untrained, underequipped men to their deaths by the tens of thousands just to slow the German advance. On the other hand, if the USSR had offered a quick capitulation (as many suspected it might) and the Germans had 3 years to consolidate their gains, Normandy would never have happened. The Atlantic Wall would have been fully manned, with armored reserves and garrisons of troops close enough move in and repulse any attempts to force a landing.
We needed the Germans to be fighting a two front war as much as Stalin did.
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This was possible, but not probable; IIRC, Roosevelt actually had to do some political arm-twisting to get Congress to go along with the Lend-Lease program vis-a-vis the Soviets. You have to remember, we had just spent some treasure (and lives) supporting the "white" Russians in their war with the "reds" in the 1920's; IMHO, we would have been better off, in many respects, NOT including the Soviets in our Lend-Lease program of the '40's.
In the long run, we actually gave them a head-start on the (eventual) Cold War; they ended up reverse-engineering several platforms that they would not otherwise have had access to. Yes, WWII might've been a few months longer; but in the long-term, I think Lend-Lease actually hurt us vis-a-vis the Soviets."There is never enough time to do or say all the things that we would wish. The thing is to try to do as much as you can in the time that you have. Remember Scrooge, time is short, and suddenly, you're not there any more." -Ghost of Christmas Present, Scrooge
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Originally posted by gunnut View PostWas it possible to only help UK and France but not USSR? Let the Nazis and commies annihilate each other.
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gunnut,
Was it possible to only help UK and France but not USSR?
z,
Yes it was possible and with hindsight may have been a better strategic move. It would have likely meant Soviet exhaustion somewhere in Belarus/Ukraine leaving the US/UK free to defeat Germany and liberate Eastern Europe.
in 1941 it looked to any rational observer that the USSR was about to collapse, leaving at best a siberian rump state and Germany in control of Europe/European Russia at the minimum.
another year after that and the nazis would scoop up the Middle East. perhaps one more year after that, they'd be at the gates of India with Japan hammering on the other side.
prior to dec 7, 1941, the isolationists-- IE the vast majority of the US-- thought that Churchill or no, Great Britain would then go under and sue for terms, if they hadn't done so already.
in any case, even with complete hindsight this would be a very difficult sell to the US public. how many more GIs would have died just at normandy if the germans had a bigger strategic reserve? how about the taking of berlin? of course the Western Allies wouldn't have taken even a third of the casualties that the USSR did in their desperate drive, but you're talking anywhere from another 250-300K casualties for the US alone, at least.
recall for operation olympic the US was bracing itself for some 400-500K casualties. those perspective casualties were enough to daunt the Allied high command, even given the post-pearl harbor US desire for blood vengeance, verging on race war.There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov
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Stitch,
In the long run, we actually gave them a head-start on the (eventual) Cold War; they ended up reverse-engineering several platforms that they would not otherwise have had access to. Yes, WWII might've been a few months longer; but in the long-term, I think Lend-Lease actually hurt us vis-a-vis the Soviets.
by mid-1944 it was becoming pretty clear that the USSR really didn't need Lend-Lease anymore, but by this time the Allies were also preparing to ask for Soviet assistance against Japan.
in short, most of the decisionmakers weren't willing to trade the lives of hundreds of thousands of troops for Eastern Europe.There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov
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There was no way in hell we would not ally with Russia. We had to follow our Allies. After all, Churchill said about Russia:
"If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favorable reference to the devil in the House of Commons."Last edited by Albany Rifles; 20 Jun 14,, 14:04.“Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
Mark Twain
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Originally posted by astralis View Postgunnut,
well, by 1941...France was already done. :)
Originally posted by astralis View Postz,
but only in complete hindsight.
in 1941 it looked to any rational observer that the USSR was about to collapse, leaving at best a siberian rump state and Germany in control of Europe/European Russia at the minimum.
another year after that and the nazis would scoop up the Middle East. perhaps one more year after that, they'd be at the gates of India with Japan hammering on the other side.
prior to dec 7, 1941, the isolationists-- IE the vast majority of the US-- thought that Churchill or no, Great Britain would then go under and sue for terms, if they hadn't done so already.
in any case, even with complete hindsight this would be a very difficult sell to the US public. how many more GIs would have died just at normandy if the germans had a bigger strategic reserve? how about the taking of berlin? of course the Western Allies wouldn't have taken even a third of the casualties that the USSR did in their desperate drive, but you're talking anywhere from another 250-300K casualties for the US alone, at least.
recall for operation olympic the US was bracing itself for some 400-500K casualties. those perspective casualties were enough to daunt the Allied high command, even given the post-pearl harbor US desire for blood vengeance, verging on race war.
If we only helped UK and Free French, but not USSR, then the Soviets probably would have fought Germany to a stalemate on the eastern front, somewhere around the Ukraine area. Soviets would have had a hard time pushing Germany back without Lend Lease. Germany and USSR might sigh a cease fire like what we did in Korea. Soviets get a breather and Germans can consolidate their holdings.
Assuming Japan still attacks Pearl, US would crush Japan with the full might of US military in 1944. But without the A-bombs, the land invasion could cost US 400k dead and maybe 2 million wounded.
The world might settle down to a 3-party cold war with US/UK vs. the Third Reich in Europe vs. USSR.
The tricky part is China. Would there be enough US military in Asia (from fighting Japan first) to prevent a complete collapse of the Nationalists in China? Or would that have been inevitable, resulting in USSR/China bloc being the 3rd participant in the 3 way cold war?"Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.
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Originally posted by astralis View Post
z,
but only in complete hindsight.
in 1941 it looked to any rational observer that the USSR was about to collapse, leaving at best a siberian rump state and Germany in control of Europe/European Russia at the minimum.
another year after that and the nazis would scoop up the Middle East. perhaps one more year after that, they'd be at the gates of India with Japan hammering on the other side.
prior to dec 7, 1941, the isolationists-- IE the vast majority of the US-- thought that Churchill or no, Great Britain would then go under and sue for terms, if they hadn't done so already.
in any case, even with complete hindsight this would be a very difficult sell to the US public. how many more GIs would have died just at normandy if the germans had a bigger strategic reserve? how about the taking of berlin? of course the Western Allies wouldn't have taken even a third of the casualties that the USSR did in their desperate drive, but you're talking anywhere from another 250-300K casualties for the US alone, at least.
recall for operation olympic the US was bracing itself for some 400-500K casualties. those perspective casualties were enough to daunt the Allied high command, even given the post-pearl harbor US desire for blood vengeance, verging on race war.
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Originally posted by gunnut View PostThe Free French government in exile in London continued to fight. Plus there was substantial colonial holdings under the banner of Free French government.
I thought about the scenario some more and came to a slightly different conclusion.
If we only helped UK and Free French, but not USSR, then the Soviets probably would have fought Germany to a stalemate on the eastern front, somewhere around the Ukraine area. Soviets would have had a hard time pushing Germany back without Lend Lease. Germany and USSR might sigh a cease fire like what we did in Korea. Soviets get a breather and Germans can consolidate their holdings.
Assuming Japan still attacks Pearl, US would crush Japan with the full might of US military in 1944. But without the A-bombs, the land invasion could cost US 400k dead and maybe 2 million wounded.
The world might settle down to a 3-party cold war with US/UK vs. the Third Reich in Europe vs. USSR.
The tricky part is China. Would there be enough US military in Asia (from fighting Japan first) to prevent a complete collapse of the Nationalists in China? Or would that have been inevitable, resulting in USSR/China bloc being the 3rd participant in the 3 way cold war?
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Originally posted by zraver View PostWithout the A-bomb, Japan would be starving and facing mass famine before the first American boot lands on the Home Islands. I'm not sure Japan would not have come hat in hand to the Allies anyway within just a few weeks of the A-Bomb/ Soviet Invasion. The Submarine offensive and mining operations created a very real promise of mass famine.
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Hm. If China is the only sphere of influence left to the US government, who knows? To prevent Mao's victory, however, would require a gigantic amount of materiel and direct intervention with US troops.Last edited by Triple C; 20 Jun 14,, 10:05.All those who are merciful with the cruel will come to be cruel to the merciful.
-Talmud Kohelet Rabbah, 7:16.
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Originally posted by gunnut View PostWas it possible to only help UK and France but not USSR? Let the Nazis and commies annihilate each other.
As others have pointed out, it is only with complete hindsight that we understand the point at which Hitler shot his bolt. Until Stalingrad fell the result seemed unclear from the outside, and even then there was no way to know how long it would take to defeat Hitler. You need to understand just how unbeatable the Nazi war machine looked in 1941. it had brushed aside the army considered the best in the world in a few months, had taken most of continental Europe & had virtually destroyed the largest army in the world. To assume at that point that the Russians would recover and eventually win would be an act of the greatest optimism.
Had a stalemate developed on the Eastern front there is simply no telling what the war in the west might have looked like. Perhaps Germany doesn't lose as many troops & as much equipment by the time the Western Allies land in Europe. Perhaps the Nazis are able to inflict heavier casualties. Perhaps Stalin, realising he is being hung out to dry, cuts a deal with Hitler Brest-Litovsk style & allows the Nazis to turn on the Western Allies in far greater numbers.
Further, any US President had to consider that Russia might be a valuable ally against Japan. That remained a firm hope right up until the end. While that turned out to be a bust in the end, it held out the prospect of saving thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of US lives. Remember that until that first A-bomb flattened Hiroshima there was still no guarantee it would work. If you believe the Colonel that eventual Russian invasion of Manchurian was as much a part of Japan's decision to surrender as the A-bombs, Every day of war cost more US lives even without an invasion of Japan. Had it been necessary to invade Japan there were orders to massacre Allied POWs & prisoners - several hundred thousand of them.
No responsible US President could afford to ignore supporting the one power with the resources & position to crush the German Army without the Western Allies expending hundreds of thousands more lives. It would have been an act of criminal irresponsibility.sigpic
Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C
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gunnut,
The Free French government in exile in London continued to fight. Plus there was substantial colonial holdings under the banner of Free French government.
If we only helped UK and Free French, but not USSR, then the Soviets probably would have fought Germany to a stalemate on the eastern front, somewhere around the Ukraine area. Soviets would have had a hard time pushing Germany back without Lend Lease. Germany and USSR might sigh a cease fire like what we did in Korea. Soviets get a breather and Germans can consolidate their holdings.
Assuming Japan still attacks Pearl, US would crush Japan with the full might of US military in 1944. But without the A-bombs, the land invasion could cost US 400k dead and maybe 2 million wounded.
operation downfall was scheduled to last until either late '46 or early '47 IIRC (horrifying if you think about it), with multiple smaller operations built in if japan didn't surrender.
The tricky part is China. Would there be enough US military in Asia (from fighting Japan first) to prevent a complete collapse of the Nationalists in China? Or would that have been inevitable, resulting in USSR/China bloc being the 3rd participant in the 3 way cold war?There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov
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