Ukraine: After the May 25 Election

[Louis]

Snapper, on that last point, do you have any idea what is going on in Moscow? Lots of speculation on the net but little hard evidence. Seems like there's a big flurry of activity and Putin is off the scene for eight days now.

[troung]

Given that the West has committed relatively little support to the Ukrainian effort, I find it odd that one should deem Ukraine “half-hearted”. Against forces that are 4 times the size of her own, does it make sense for Ukraine to throw all of her eggs in one basket no

They are not facing four times their number - they outnumber and should outgun the rebels by quite a margin.

why would it be in Ukraine’s best interests to engage in a “battle of annihilation” when- in the event that no one comes to her aid- there is a chance she may lose her entire nationhood? Why is this a necessary and acceptable

Then drop the rebel/Russian held zones and call it a day, and a demographic win.

=======

Hell they even have to supply free gas there.

The Ukraine can't pay to keep the lights on either.

ou don't want training manuals to fall into Russian hands - but this is more excuses - the Russians could buy them anywhere they chose should they wish to - no doubt your Albanian allies could ask for some.

The Ukrainian high command is regarded as full of spies and just generally corrupt officers.

Then you tell us Ukraine needs to reform - what to be like those other bastions of Governmental trasparency and probity like Albania?

If you want free money yeah time to reform.

You ask why Ukraine wants JAVELINS when it has KORNETs (which are Russian not Ukrainian made)? Because old KORNETs don't work is the honest truth and since they are made in Russia they aren't about to give us spare parts. Why Ukraine needs anti battery radar should be obvious but never mind hey? Since the KORNETs should work let's not give them any counter batter radar either. How does that follow? Never mind...

Hezbollah, with zero tank of its own, used Kornets, Tophans, Metis, AT-5s and AT-3s with some success against an opponent with complete control of the air. The Ukraine has more tanks and AFVs than the rebels, has an air force (more a flying club I guess) and outnumbers the rebels. The Javelin argument is blame shifting for failure.

Absolute BS excuse for the failure of Ukrainian armies.

Hell we are giving Humvees for free to a nation which exports BTRs to the Burmese junta.

Ukraine has lost over 6000 lives already, Russia casualties we can only guess at - we have seen how it has stressed their system.

A fraction of that.

Does Ukraine have to become another Syria? T

If they want to break the ethnic Russian rebels more of it will have to.

Ukraine and I want the Russian regime to desist and withdraw so that Ukraine can be free and independent to get on with the reforms. I would not waste one more life more than is necessary to accomplish that goal, seek your bloodbath elsewhere.

Won't get that without a bloodbath or two.

================
What you want is other nations to win the war for the Ukraine then provide free money forever. A beggar with a sense of entitlement. Enjoy the Russians...

In E. Ukraine, Civilian Deaths Push Men to Join Rebels

http://www.voanews.com/content/in-ea...s/2677067.html
Patrick Wells

March 12, 2015 12:06 AM
DONETSK—

After months of fighting in eastern Ukraine, the presence of the Ukrainian military and the shelling of civilian neighborhoods seem to be pushing more men to join the rebellion.

New recruits for the Russia-backed separatist army, part of a battalion of Don Cossacks, are on their way out of Donetsk to a piece of wasteland for weapons training. Some fighters joining the rebellion from Russia have also been identified as Don Cossacks.

Their targets are the faces of Western-leaning Ukrainian politicians, including Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

It's been months since the Ukrainian government launched what it calls its "anti-terrorism operation" to retake the east of the country. But these Cossacks have a tradition of fighting on the side of Russia dating from imperial times. They say that, to them, the operation felt like an armed invasion by a new government they were already suspicious of.

Sasha, their commander, was an economist and businessman before the war. He traveled to Kyiv and had friends there. But now, he said, no one there understands why he’s fighting.

“They think that we are terrorists, and pro-Russian citizens. But I do not think like this. We were born as Russians in our blood, and we are living on our land. As a rule, we have no contact with 90 percent of our old friends in western Ukraine and there is a massive lack of comprehension between us and them,” Sasha said.

Civilian deaths

The use of artillery and rockets in built-up areas by both sides has led to many civilian deaths and huge damage to property. And instead of discouraging the rebellion, these men say it has obligated them to join up.

One, who goes by the name “Spiker” worked as a miner until his village was largely destroyed by shelling.

“A lot of my neighbors were killed, a lot of my friends who I worked with before were killed. All the houses and church on my street were ruined. The children's playground and school were ruined,” he said.

Weapons training ends with grenade launchers and a demonstration of explosives using old equipment from the coal mines.

Despite the cease-fire, these men say they expect the fighting will start again soon.

In this war, one side thinks they are fighting terrorists, the other thinks they are fighting Nazis. And the longer the fighting continues, the more polarized this region will become.

[Chunder]

Won't get that without a bloodbath or two.

The Russians are prepared to kill Ukrainians in droves & shoot an airliner down in the process. Ukraine won't mobilise to reclaim their territory from these people who so readily were willing to kill their brethren. They would have these people exist in their political system as blood enemies in the future.

[Officer of Engineers]

Colonel from the very beginning all you have wanted is a bloodbath yet you continue to dress it up under different guises, now the leadership is "chickenshit" because it has not served up a "battle of annhilation".

Read Sara! I said that they have not formed a Front at the Army/Corps level. And these last stand battles are of Ukraine's doing and most certainly, it was NOT a Battle of Annhilation.

You've told us how countries like Poland and Bulgaria "jumped through hoops" to get NATO membership and how Ukraine needs to do the same... Ukraine hasn't asked for NATO membership anyway so I am not sure how this is relevant but how many Polish and Bulgarian troops died "jumping through hoops"?

Nice of you switching things around. Again, I point to Solidarity.

Then you tell us Ukraine needs to reform - what to be like those other bastions of Governmental trasparency and probity like Albania?

The Albanias crossed their t's and crossed their i's in their reforms whether you like it or not.

You are happy to see weapons provided to the Iraqi army despite the fact they are operating with Iranian support in Tikrit...

I am one of those who spouted a pox on all their houses. I couldn't be bothered giving anything to the Iraqis. In 5 years time, there would be another bunch of freaks going on a slaughter binge and I can't be bothered to arm anyone else either.

You don't want training manuals to fall into Russian hands - but this is more excuses - the Russians could buy them anywhere they chose should they wish to - no doubt your Albanian allies could ask for some.

I stated both. The weapons and the manuals and all Albainian inventory is accounted for. That too is a NATO requirement.

Excuse after excuse to not supply javelins and counter battery radar based on the false premise that Ukraine is seeking NATO membership.

Don't put words in my mouth. There two completely different issues.

You ask why Ukraine wants JAVELINS when it has KORNETs (which are Russian not Ukrainian made)? Because old KORNETs don't work is the honest truth and since they are made in Russia they aren't about to give us spare parts.

What? The inventory is less than 20 years old. What do you mean you need spare parts?

Why Ukraine needs anti battery radar should be obvious but never mind hey? Since the KORNETs should work let's not give them any counter batter radar either. How does that follow? Never mind...

Again, do not put words into my mouth. I stated my reasons. I don't want these systems for the Russians to study at their liesure.

Now you want your bloodbath... the leadership is "chickenshit". Does Ukraine have to become another Syria?

To save your country? Yes! To make the Ukraines a hell hole that not even an insane Russian dare to come in.

The Donbass is already reminscent of Grozny

Not even close! 50,000+ people died in the Battles of Grozny. And the Chechens won that battle twice.

but you want ALL Ukrainian cities to be like Aleppo? I pity any soldier who had the misfortune to serve under your command! "I don't want you fight - I want you die"... really? A wonder your own troops didn't shoot you! I would rather we suffer 1 casualty than 10 and rather 10 than 100. No Sir a vast casualty list doesn't bring victory; casualties are an unfortunate consequence of any battle, be it a victory or defeat. Casualties for the sake it is madness and likely to result in ultimate defeat. But you must know this.

You know, Sara. I gave you the reference. Mustafa Kemal on the eve of Gappolli. Turkish troops would rather run than fight. Their leadership was a mess. Uprisings in their rear area. And the British just outflanked the entire Ottoman Empire by landing at Gallopoli. Sounds familiar?

That speech steeled the regular Turkish soldier. He stood his ground. He didn't run. He fought and died in place. And he beaten back the British. So DO LOOK UP THE REFERECNE!

Perhaps you think we should have put more into Debaltseve? It would have been a mistake and I will explain why. There is NO VALUE in Donbass for Russia right now - except as a threat and an annoyance to Ukraine ...

I don't give a damn where you choose your Battle of Annhilation. Just choose and fight it.

Ukraine has lost over 6000 lives already, Russia casualties we can only guess at - we have seen how it has stressed their system. No sane person has any desire to kill 1000s more Russian soldiers for the sheer sake of it nor to see 1000s more Ukrainian die.

Sane? Are you a freaking idiot. There is NOTHING sane about war. The two axioms of war - Find the enemy. Kill the enemy.

If I had a magic wand and could end this war without another fatality I would use it for the sake of both Russia and Ukraine. Do not mistake this for reluctance to sacrifice though; if it takes all of Ukraine to become like Syria and another 100,000 Russian and Ukrainian deaths to make the Russian regime desist so be it - and let us be clear here Colonel that is all you have wanted since this started. If that's what it takes - fine but do not try to dress up your desire to see Slavic bloodbath in Ukraine under the guise of "chickenshit leadership" or your unwillingness to see Ukraine armed under pretences of 'NATO standards' or 'manuals in Moscow' because frankly it's BS. You want a bloodbath - Ukraine and I want the Russian regime to desist and withdraw so that Ukraine can be free and independent to get on with the reforms. I would not waste one more life more than is necessary to accomplish that goal, seek your bloodbath elsewhere.

Then you have already lost. In case you have not noticed, Putin is more than willing to fight the Ukrainians down to the last Mongolian.

[JAD_333]

“Gall” was not used as a means of earning respect; it was used as a means to
convey my astonishment at his statement, but thanks for the reprimand, anyway.

All's good. Spend a little time getting to know the people here. Some have insights you may not be aware of. That alone can be astonishing. :)

Given that the West has committed relatively little support to the Ukrainian effort, I find it odd that one should deem Ukraine “half-hearted”.

The opposite should be the case.

You have all made yourselves very clear that the West WILL NOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES come to help Ukraine, why would it be in Ukraine’s best interests to engage in a “battle of annihilation” when- in the event that no one comes to her aid- there is a chance she may lose her entire nationhood? Why is this a necessary and acceptable risk? The West remains non-committed, why is it permissible to scoff at Ukraine's efforts to remain sovereign?

Some of your points don't necessarily hold true...in fact they aren't true. To begin with, the west has come to Ukraine's aid through fairly stiff sanctions and others may come. The US has indicated it may send arms if MinskII fails and fighting begins anew. In fact some aid has already been announced.

It's true that some people think Ukraine should go it alone, but these same people also think Ukraine can ultimately win if it is strongly committed to its independence. But the truth is only that the opinion exists, not in the manifestation of it because total war has not erupted up to this point.

As for a war of annihilation that came up as simply in answer to a question of how Ukraine could defeat Russian-backed separatists if they enlarged the war or moved on Mariupol. Anyway, it's unlikely Ukraine has the generalship capable of pulling off a war (battle) of annihilation. The tactical aspects require great precision and good intelligence. Ukraine has no Hannibal or Napoleon.

[Chunder]

Anyway, it's unlikely Ukraine has the generalship capable of pulling off a war (battle) of annihilation. The tactical aspects require great precision and good intelligence. Ukraine has no Hannibal or Napoleon.

It goes without saying that this is actually closer to the truth than many would like. It's also reflected in their hesitant political action to clearly articulate conviction on Ukrainian territorial sovereignty. The will to call for help when one can easily identify areas where the will to act has been lacking really clearly demonstrates this. This really needs to be understood.

Whether one agrees or not that Russia is involved or not (it's clear they are), one could hardly argue that those who so readily picked up arms to shoot at their brothers and sisters are fit to sit in a 'federation' at least in an American or Australian parliamentary sense, let alone be accommodated.

This is a position articulated by the Russians from the start. On the face of it, why the Ukrainians can't position themselves to face this reality head on speaks loads about residual political issues.

It really has been bugger all time since the last Major war. 70 Years ago? Barely a Generation. But even then in Commonwealth countries thousands of kilometres away from war a far better job getting their act together once they realised their short comings was being realised. Heck, by 1942 with a population of 7 million, the army alone stood at 400,000 until we realised our population and economy couldn't sustain it, and at that stage we hadn't even begun to fight over our own land.

Getting into a war which potentially involves nukes* over a nation that has some real problems? no thanks..

*Even a war which undermines Putins leadership, does not bode well for nuclear arms control. Frankly people don't fear nukes like they used to, and that is rather frightening...

[astralis]

on the other hand....the Chechens didn't have a Hannibal or Napoleon either.

snapper,

it sounds cold but the reality is, ukraine simply has not been fighting anything even remotely close to a total war to date. how many soldiers are under arms? what percentage of the Ukrainian budget is going to her defense?

look at when the north vietnamese were fighting the french and the US-- they mobilized the entire population (smaller than that of Ukraine's, by the way), lost just about every battle, suffered absolutely lopsided casualty ratios....and did this for an entire generation...and -won-.

to be sure, that required mobilization, privation, propaganda, and cruelty to a horrifying degree, but it shows what iron will is capable of. to beat a stronger power, that's what ukraine will need to bring to the table.

[Officer of Engineers]

on the other hand....the Chechens didn't have a Hannibal or Napoleon either.

No but they knew their Genghis Khan

snapper,

it sounds cold but the reality is, ukraine simply has not been fighting anything even remotely close to a total war to date. how many soldiers are under arms? what percentage of the Ukrainian budget is going to her defense?

THE COLD REALITY IS I AM SICK OF HER DEMANDING NATO TO WIN HER WAR FOR HER!

[S2]

Snapper has never demanded anything of the sort so this would be a complete distortion.

[JAD_333]

on the other hand....the Chechens didn't have a Hannibal or Napoleon either.

snapper,

it sounds cold but the reality is, ukraine simply has not been fighting anything even remotely close to a total war to date. how many soldiers are under arms? what percentage of the Ukrainian budget is going to her defense?

It wasn't supposed to be total war in the beginning. It was to subdue separatists and restore order in the Donbass. When the separatists looked sure to lose, Russia entered. All this in less than a year. Ukraine was not ready to deal with that turn of events and couldn't have gotten ready in such a short a space of time. Wisely, Ukraine has not throw everything it has into the war. It needs defensive capability while it expands its military, which it's now doing with increased conscription, for example.

[snapper]

it sounds cold but the reality is, ukraine simply has not been fighting anything even remotely close to a total war to date. how many soldiers are under arms? what percentage of the Ukrainian budget is going to her defense?.

Expected to reach 8% of GDP this year.

look at when the north vietnamese were fighting the french and the US-- they mobilized the entire population (smaller than that of Ukraine's, by the way), lost just about every battle, suffered absolutely lopsided casualty ratios....and did this for an entire generation...and -won-.

to be sure, that required mobilization, privation, propaganda, and cruelty to a horrifying degree, but it shows what iron will is capable of. to beat a stronger power, that's what ukraine will need to bring to the table.

The Vietnamese were plentifully supplied by their allies, Ukraine gets...blankets. The Vietnamese also had all but impenetrable forest, rivers and mountains - east Ukraine is steppe land, as flat as Hollande without the dykes; if they break out of the Donbass the Dnieper is the only natural obstacle. But mostly you have to understand there is a serious hardware imbalance; tanks and artillery they have almost limitless numbers of - Ukraine does not. As for why the KORNETs don't work propperly I don't know - they are 1990s vintage and I am told some of the charges have a 'best before date'. They will fire but over 1/3rd do not detonate on contact. Because of the imbalance in tank and artillery numbers Ukraine has requested the systems it has. Please see Dr. Phillip Karber's lecture here The Russian Military Forum: Russia's Hybrid War Campaign: Implications for Ukraine and Beyond | Center for Strategic and International Studies or read the Potomoc report he did with Gen Wesley Clark last year if you are genuinely interested.

THE COLD REALITY IS I AM SICK OF HER DEMANDING NATO TO WIN HER WAR FOR HER!

Colonel I have never demanded any such thing. Neither do you have the right to demand a 'Battle of annihilation' in a conflict where you have no interest in even understanding, let alone helping, the problems faced by those who aspire to maintain the international rule of law.

Snapper, on that last point, do you have any idea what is going on in Moscow?

All we can say with certainty is that something is happening and that they want to keep behind closed doors. Rumours are just that and speculation is pointless.

[troung]

As for why the KORNETs don't work propperly I don't know - they are 1990s vintage and I am told some of the charges have a 'best before date'. They will fire but over 1/3rd do not detonate on contact. s.

Hezbollah made reasonably good use of them against heavily armored Israeli tanks, and they weren't backed by armor and an air force and didn't outnumber the IDF. And the Ukraine exported wheeled IFVs to SE Asia mounting ATGMs. It's excuse making for military failure, plain and simple.

Because of the imbalance in tank and artillery numbers Ukraine has requested the systems it ha

The Ukraine has more tanks and artillery pieces then the rebels do.

The Vietnamese were plentifully supplied by their allies, Ukraine gets...blankets. The Vietnamese also had all but impenetrable forest, r

The Ukraine is a weapons exporter.

Neither do you have the right to demand a 'Battle of annihilation' in a conflict where you have no interest in even understanding, let alone helping, the problems faced by those who aspire to maintain the international rule of law

Still with hand out expecting others to do the work for you guys.

Ukrainian troops with ATGMs..

[astralis]

snapper,

Expected to reach 8% of GDP this year.

yes, from 5%.

for comparison's sake, US defense spending hit 45% of GDP in WWII, and that was not a life or death struggle for the US.

we spent 15-20% of GDP during the korean war, which was called the "forgotten war" in the US.

the US cold war -average- over 40 years was roughly 10-12%.

what about overall men under arms? in the US civil war, 2.2 million men served in the union army out of a population of roughly 22 million. ~650,000 volunteers rushed to the defense of the republic in the first six months of the war. ukraine in 2014 has a population of ~45 million. how many volunteers are in the UA and the associated militias?

The Vietnamese were plentifully supplied by their allies, Ukraine gets...blankets.

north vietnam was also not a weapons exporter...

The Vietnamese also had all but impenetrable forest, rivers and mountains - east Ukraine is steppe land, as flat as Hollande without the dykes; if they break out of the Donbass the Dnieper is the only natural obstacle. But mostly you have to understand there is a serious hardware imbalance; tanks and artillery they have almost limitless numbers of - Ukraine does not. But mostly you have to understand there is a serious hardware imbalance; tanks and artillery they have almost limitless numbers of - Ukraine does not.

most of the fighting has been in built-up areas, not open ground. and again, Ukraine is not missing hardware, what she is missing is -leadership-, both military and political. by just about every account, the Debaltseve retreat was a mess, with leaders bugging out and heavy weaponry left for the rebels as the soldiers were told to get out in 10 minutes' time. hell the commander of the Donbas battalion is on the record saying that he had enough men and material but no leadership and coordination.

again, i don't mind sending ukraine weaponry (to a certain extent). but listen to what the military professionals on this site are telling you; weapons are not ukraine's limiting factor here. will and leadership is.

[Chunder]

Colonel I have never demanded any such thing. Neither do you have the right to demand a 'Battle of annihilation' in a conflict where you have no interest in even understanding, let alone helping, the problems faced by those who aspire to maintain the international rule of law.

Who are those that maintain the international rule of law?

Ukraines neighbours and key stakeholders in any armed conflict have no interest in maintaining it... they have an interest in negotiating it.

Honestly Snapper, these would be autonomous republics ostensibly participating in Ukranian politics will destroy Ukraines ability to formulate central authority on key issues. Im not versed in other countries politics, but I know a little of the Westminster x Senate system and what Russia has proposed from the start is an absolute freaking farce.

I have no idea why Ukraine will not articulate the unacceptability of blood enemies sitting across the chamber from one another.

This is your people before the current crisis.

One would seriously contemplate thy enemy sitting in on that? Would anyone? Can anyone here articulate why exactly that is a good idea?

Divest thyself of assholes, or force them out.

Articulate a plan, and control the issue, or those pariahs and those with less to loose around you WILL.

[Officer of Engineers]

It wasn't supposed to be total war in the beginning.

It's not total war now nor even an corps/army level fight. There has not been one single engagement at the Division level throughout th

It was to subdue separatists and restore order in the Donbass. When the separatists looked sure to lose, Russia entered. All this in less than a year. Ukraine was not ready to deal with that turn of events and couldn't have gotten ready in such a short a space of time.

Shit happens but after Ilovaisk, a line of retreat was absolutely essential and must be committed to be manned at all times. So, what happenned at Debaltseve?

Wisely, Ukraine has not throw everything it has into the war. It needs defensive capability while it expands its military, which it's now doing with increased conscription, for example.

Where is their Kursk Line?

The Vietnamese were plentifully supplied by their allies, Ukraine gets...blankets. The Vietnamese also had all but impenetrable forest, rivers and mountains - east Ukraine is steppe land, as flat as Hollande without the dykes; if they break out of the Donbass the Dnieper is the only natural obstacle.

You've got an air force. You could at least see where they're going days before they reach there and be ready for them.

But mostly you have to understand there is a serious hardware imbalance; tanks and artillery they have almost limitless numbers of - Ukraine does not. As for why the KORNETs don't work propperly I don't know - they are 1990s vintage and I am told some of the charges have a 'best before date'. They will fire but over 1/3rd do not detonate on contact.

Are you serious? That's your freaking excuse? 66% of your KORNET inventory will work. 33% does not. How about doing what the Russians have been doing for the past 70 years. Strip the missiles apart. Canabalize parts from one dead missile to fix others! And increase your inventory by another 10%.

But in any case, you have just admitted that you have enough ATGMs to do the freaking job!

Because of the imbalance in tank and artillery numbers Ukraine has requested the systems it has.

The numbers are on your side. You have been killing more Russian tanks and artillery than they have been killing of yours. Your equipment loss is mostly of you leaving your stuff behind when you ran.

Please see Dr. Phillip Karber's lecture here The Russian Military Forum: Russia's Hybrid War Campaign: Implications for Ukraine and Beyond | Center for Strategic and International Studies or read the Potomoc report he did with Gen Wesley Clark last year if you are genuinely interested.

You really want to quote Wesley Clark here? The man who counted weapons release and not targets hit as a successful sortie?

Colonel I have never demanded any such thing.

Oh yes, you did and you continue to do so. Even in this very post.

Neither do you have the right to demand a 'Battle of annihilation' in a conflict where you have no interest in even understanding, let alone helping, the problems faced by those who aspire to maintain the international rule of law.

And here it is. That is your jumping up and down point ever since this mess began. Maintaining International Law. That has been your stance. You TRY twisting the Budapest Memorandum into saying something that it does not say and then you sprout the horse puckey that unless the US and the UK enforces the BM, then the North Atlantic Treaty is worth squat.

Just how did you envision the US and the UK to enforce the BM? Slap Putin's hand? You said how about putting a brigade on the Dneiper?

Then, magically, Putin would behave.

Do you know what you're asking? Sara? Do you really? You are asking us to DARE PUTIN TO FIGHT WWIII over the Ukraines. Why should we do that? Why should we committ to such an action?

I cannot believe that you are so naive that you do not see what you're asking and you hide behind "international law" and Minsk-xxx at the gates of Warsaw to try to pull the wool over our eyes as to say that is not what you're asking.

I don't have the right to demand anything of the Ukraines but sure as hell as I can demand the Ukraines to not blame us for her lack of will.