Ukraine: After the May 25 Election

[Blademaster]

Brain fart. Will correct.

Just ribbing you on a slow night. :)

[snapper]

Hell yes, especially the suicidal ones!

Colonel it would appear that in your book to do anything - even refusing to rule out all options - would amount to embarking on 'suicidal risk'. But not to do anything is also a choice too and carries risk of encouraging further military adventurism on behalf of the aggressor. These lessons of the 1930s appeasement you seem to discount altogether.

In the last few days we have seen Russia threaten Denmark with nuclear weapons (Russia delivers nuclear threat to Denmark - The Local) while as the Russians prepare to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the defeat of Hitler they host a meeting of Neo fascists, anti Semites, white supremacists etc in St Petersburg (BBC News - Europe far-right parties meet in St Petersburg, Russia). General Breedlove (SACEUR) get's it;

The full Brussels Forum panel with Gen Breedlove and others is here; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUZ2To0kG74

[Antdawg]

Yep, after hearing Breedlove today, this Spring/Summer is going to be bloody. The time for Ukraine is now. Once Moscow moves further north and west, it will be nearly impossible to remove them.

[Officer of Engineers]

Colonel it would appear that in your book to do anything - even refusing to rule out all options - would amount to embarking on 'suicidal risk'.

In my book, the rewards does not justify the risk.

But not to do anything is also a choice too and carries risk of encouraging further military adventurism on behalf of the aggressor. These lessons of the 1930s appeasement you seem to discount altogether.

The lessons of the 1853 Crimean War is screaming at me.

In the last few days we have seen Russia threaten Denmark with nuclear weapons (Russia delivers nuclear threat to Denmark - The Local)

Gee, stationing a nuclear force neutralizer should be met with flowers.

while as the Russians prepare to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the defeat of Hitler they host a meeting of Neo fascists, anti Semites, white supremacists etc in St Petersburg (BBC News - Europe far-right parties meet in St Petersburg, Russia).

They can invite the Martians for all I care. We will draw the line in the sand where we can win, not where you want it to be.

General Breedlove (SACEUR) get's it;

It's not his decision.

[JAD_333]

[QUOTE=snapper;990319]... General Breedlove (SACEUR) get's it;

Sara, sending lethal military assistance to Ukraine IS on the table...it's being considered, which is what Breedlove is talking about. The discussion up to now was about sending US or NATO troops, which was taken off the table. You're being disingenuous.

And really, if you listen to him carefully and read his Feb 25 press conference transcript, what's new? Department of Defense Press Briefing by Gen. Breedlove, Feb. 25, 2015

[Officer of Engineers]

Yep, after hearing Breedlove today, this Spring/Summer is going to be bloody. The time for Ukraine is now. Once Moscow moves further north and west, it will be nearly impossible to remove them.

Not as bloody as it could be. Not as bloody as it should be. Putin cannot afford a Pyrrhic victory.

[snapper]

In my book, the rewards does not justify the risk.

It's not his decision.

Nor is it my decision - or respectfully is it yours. My point is that General Breedlove clearly, as others, regards the risks of innaction as greater than the risks of a further proportionate response. I would suggest that General Breedlove is in a more informed position to advise on such a decision than either you or I.

The lessons of the 1853 Crimean War is screaming at me.

I must admit I am at a loss to understand what you are alluding to Sir. Will the 'Concert of Europe' break down and Prussia become expansionist again?

They can invite the Martians for all I care. We will draw the line in the sand where we can win, not where you want it to be.

Colonel you are missing the point. The aim must be not to have to draw a "line in the sand" with the 'suicidal risks' this would bring - though I am confident that if it did come to that the Russians would back down - but to specifically avoid that by responding in a lesser way now.

Sara, sending lethal military assistance to Ukraine IS on the table...it's being considered, which is what Breedlove is talking about. The discussion up to now was about sending US or NATO troops, which was taken off the table. You're being disingenuous.

I was referring to his comment that "no tool should be off the table". I cannot see how you can equate that to ruling options out.

[Officer of Engineers]

Nor is it my decision - or respectfully is it yours. My point is that General Breedlove clearly, as others, regards the risks of innaction as greater than the risks of a further proportionate response. I would suggest that General Breedlove is in a more informed position to advise on such a decision than either you or I.

I STRONGLY DISAGREE! He's asking us, the public, to support military intervention into the Ukraines and THAT requires an INFORMED public, and not just an informed American public but across the enitre NATO alliance. Look at the backlash from Bush's WMD claims on Iraq.

And just how much more informed is he? That two entire Russian Armies (60,000 men) is poised to invade Ukraines? That at least 2 brigades are now in the Ukraines? That more weapons are being smuggled into theatre? That Moscow is planning and executing this war?

So what?

I must admit I am at a loss to understand what you are alluding to Sir. Will the 'Concert of Europe' break down and Prussia become expansionist again?

It means this fucking mess ain't any of our business. It's yours!

Colonel you are missing the point. The aim must be not to have to draw a "line in the sand" with the 'suicidal risks' this would bring - though I am confident that if it did come to that the Russians would back down - but to specifically avoid that by responding in a lesser way now.

Oh FOR FUCK SAKES! THERE IS NO LESSER WAY! NOTHING WE DO, SHORT OF A NUCLAER WAR, WILL STOP PUTIN!

Defensive weaponry? Putin can counter and counter EASILY! We are NOT going to empty our arsenals for the fucked up Ukrainian Army. Even the Americans are refusing to supply JAVELINS, they're telling NATO allies that they have no objections if we do.

NOTHING WE CAN DO SHORT OF DARING PUTIN TO START A NUCLEAR WAR WILL STOP HIM! But the Ukrainian Army can stop him and stop him cold! Force a Pyrrhic Victory onto him.

[JAD_333]

I was referring to his comment that "no tool should be off the table". I cannot see how you can equate that to ruling options out.

You're reading too much into Breedlove's comments. Ask him flat out if he's advocating sending in US or NATO troops, or if that is a consideration now on the table, and he will say no. Look, Sara, an option taken off the table can be put back on the table, and Putin knows it; so this all a meaningless academic exercise.

You also have to understand Breedlove's position. He's speaking for NATO and speaking directly to Europe which is where there is a great deal of reluctance to sending Ukraine military aid. He's trying to get Europe to keep an open mind and not rule out aid.

If the fighting starts up again in earnest, i.e. MinskII dies, then expect Ukraine to get more aid. But she'll have to go it alone in terms of manpower.

[Officer of Engineers]

If the fighting starts up again in earnest, i.e. MinskII dies, then expect Ukraine to get more aid. But she'll have to go it alone in terms of manpower.

Just march 10,000 men, a single division, into Mariupol. It will force the war wide open ... and force a Putin's retreat.

Hell, would Putin even want to escalate at that point?

Again, no little green men in the rest of Georgia.

[JAD_333]

Just march 10,000 men, a single division, into Mariupol. It will force the war wide open ... and force a Putin's retreat.

Hell, would Putin even want to escalate at that point?

Again, no little green men in the rest of Georgia.

Sounds like a plan. Place them to the east of the city and publicly declare them as ... What? A protective/defensive force? A training exercise? Putin's playbook.

[Officer of Engineers]

I'm stating the Ukrainians to do it, not a NATO force. If a NATO force, we have to be ready to receive a nuke, otherwise, we're bluffing or rather, we are daring Putin to nuke us.

[JAD_333]

I'm stating the Ukrainians to do it, not a NATO force. If a NATO force, we have to be ready to receive a nuke, otherwise, we're bluffing or rather, we are daring Putin to nuke us.

I know you mean Ukraine forces. I was asking how it would be handled to play down any accusations that it's a provocation.

[Officer of Engineers]

I know you mean Ukraine forces. I was asking how it would be handled to play down any accusations that it's a provocation.

Actually, I never even thought of that. I actually mean to provoke Putin.

All chips in. Call.

But simply, a Civil Defence disaster exercise.

[Bacon]

And just how much more informed is he? That two entire Russian Armies (60,000 men) is poised to invade Ukraines? That at least 2 brigades are now in the Ukraines? That more weapons are being smuggled into theatre? That Moscow is planning and executing this war? So what?

You’re more informed- as a casual observer of the conflict in Ukraine- than a man who is currently being paid to monitor the events in Ukraine? How fascinating! Tell me more!
“So what?” According to this factsheet, if Russia is indeed waging a full-scale war with Ukraine, Ukraine is going to be in need of significant assistance (you may wish to scroll down to the “Military” section; sections are listed alphabetically):
Ukraine vs. Russia - Country Comparison.

Yes, the figures are in some instances 5 years old, however, I find it hard to imagine how Ukraine managed to produce an extra 20 million or so conscripts in so short a time.

You keep insisting that
“NOTHING WE CAN DO SHORT OF DARING PUTIN TO START A NUCLEAR WAR WILL STOP HIM!” and yet continue to maintain that Ukraine could scare Russia off with a show of force. How, pray tell, is a man you claim is ready and willing to engage in nuclear warfare going to be stymied by an army a third of the size of his own? The thought is whimsical, really.